durant vs beasley

[LeBronJames_23]

durant had a very respectable rookie season how do you think beasley will compare in his rookie campain and touch on who will be better in their prime

[thegreatblaze]

I say Beasley will be a tad more efficient in his rookie season, but I'd take Durant when we're talking about prime.

[Tirion]

tsherkin wrote piece about that:
http://basketball.realgm.com/src_showti ... d_beasley/
KD looks like he added some muscle and it's bodes well with him having a "breakout" season in terms of efficiency, FDraw rate and rebounding.
I think Beasley will not score 20 ppg in his rookie season not with Wade, Davis and Marion on the team.
He's FG% will probably be better due to position and role, but not by that much, something like 45-46% sounds right. As about their primes it's too early to tell, I need to watch Beasley play at least one season in NBA.
Random fact: Durant is only 3 month older than Beasley.

[BBallFreak]

tsherkin wrote piece about that:
http://basketball.realgm.com/src_showti ... d_beasley/
KD looks like he added some muscle and it's bodes well with him having a "breakout" season in terms of efficiency, FDraw rate and rebounding.
I think Beasley will not score 20 ppg in his rookie season not with Wade, Davis and Marion on the team.
He's FG% will probably be better due to position and role, but not by that much, something like 45-46% sounds right. As about their primes it's too early to tell, I need to watch Beasley play at least one season in NBA.
Random fact: Durant is only 3 month older than Beasley.

Right on, except Davis won't be in Miami next year. James Jones, and the $7 million offer he got to play overseas, all but assures that.

[gswhoops]

If I had to pick one for the future, Durant.

[tsherkin]

The Heat are starved for offense, even with Ricky D, who has only been a 13 ppg or so player in Miami (he's pretty much a spot-up shooter around screens and such, nothing like the slasher he was expected to be).

After Wade and with Shaq gone, they don't really have a single player who can create his own shot with the ball. Haslem's strictly put-backs, dump passes and jumpers popping off of screens. Marion moves very well without the ball but is useless as an iso player. Joel Anthony and the other frontcourt guys aren't scorers. James Jones is a spot-up shooter. Etc, etc, etc.

Beasley is going to probably walk into 18 shots a game by accident and even if he shoots 40%, that means he's still getting a raw average of 14.4 ppg on field goals alone (assuming no three-pointers). You have to figure he's probably going to draw 6 or 7 FTA per game and that means 4.2 to 4.9 additional points if he shoots only 70% at the line (he shot 77.4% FT with the Wildcats), which brings him into the 18.6 to 19.3 ppg range. So shooting 40% FG and 70% FT, given a reasonable number of attempts for a second-scorer who's the #2 overall pick on an offense-starved team with a monofilament-thin froncourt, you're looking at around 19 ppg.

But Kevin Durant shot 43% from the floor as basically a pure shooter with a little post-game and some late-season efforts to curb his habit of shooting bad 3s and to slash more, which makes me feel comfortable with more like 46-48% FG from Beasley. 50% isn't out of the question, given that he's going to be right by the rim, but his offensive game seems to recall Carmelo's and 'Melo hasn't managed a 50% FG season yet.

Unlike 'Melo, he does have the advantage of playing next to a really dangerous scorer and passer as a rookie, so he's not the focus of the defense. Wade's a 27 ppg scorer when he's healthy. But let's be conservative and say 46%. All of a sudden, 14.4 ppg off of FG becomes 16.56 ppg, and then you add that 4.2 to 4.9 ppg and you get 20.76 to 21.46 ppg.

So if he's shooting decently, you're looking at around 21 ppg out of Beasley, in my estimation, plus 8-10 rpg and like 1 or 2 apg.

Why 18 FGA/g?

Well, Wade got about 18 shots a game last season, Marion about 13, Davis about 12, Haslem and Shaq both got about 10... but that was also a team about 22nd in pace and it's clear that the Heat are going to look to improve upon that in order to take advantage of the athletes on their squad (they tried to do so once Marion came back but injuries and tanking and such derailed the plan).

Davis is pretty much gone and Beasley is more apt to get shots than Haslem because he's a focal scorer. A slightly younger Shaq got 12 FGA/g to Wade's 19 in 06-07, 14 to Wade's 19 when they won the title in '06 and 15 to Wade's 17 in '05.

But Beasley, unlike Shaq, has a strong mid-range jumper that can and will translate to him taking a lot of Haslem's shots by playing the high side/midscreen plays that Wade likes to use to gain entry into the paint (you know, where Haslem sidles up to the elbow or the top of the circle and then Wade can go baseline left or dive into the middle, etc). That means he'll get some extra jumpers that way, some high post isos, some low post isos, some catch and shoots, some buckets in transition...

They're going to milk him for offense as much as possible... and he's a guy who can get streaky and go big, so they'll ride the hot hand where possible. Too, Wade will not likely play more than 70 games, so Beasley will be called upon as the primary scorer in those games where Wade is sitting.

And beyond that, you have to imagine that Spolestra is going to give Wade fewer minutes than usual to preserve his health and let him recover after the Olympics, so Beasley will probably get tons of shots from that, too, since he's the de facto #1 option when Wade isn't on the floor.

So 18 FGA/g isn't really a big deal with all that in mind and the above percentages and number projections largely speak for themselves. You're looking at basically 19 to 21 ppg out of him if he's getting that kind of shot volume.

[codeman_bmf]

Durant all the way, think of Beasley as the next Zach Randolph

[LeBronJames_23]

Durant all the way, think of Beasley as the next Zach Randolph

what are you smoking

[BruceO]

could someone just bring up the old durant vs Beasley thread from months ago and merge these things. The other one was several pages long and I hate to have the same opinions reitarated by the same people. Merge them so everything can be held in perspective.

[tsherkin]

Durant all the way, think of Beasley as the next Zach Randolph

what are you smoking

Well, to be fair... Beasley's freshman season (26/12) was way better than what Randolph managed at Michigan State (11/7)... something like Durant's own season, only more efficient.

That's a pretty terrible comparison, to be honest.

[thegreatblaze]

^^People put too much weight into college stats.

Zach averaged 11/7 in college, then went on to register 24/10 in the NBA. By that logic Beasley will be a 40/20 player.