LeBron James' Max Contract (WOW!!)

[DowJones]

Can someone tell me if I am doing this right? I have calculated LeBron's max-contract numbers if he signs a new 6-year max contract in 2010. Then I assumed that LeBron, at age 31, will sign ANOTHER max-contract for 6 years. Would his numbers really be this large? I am going under the assumption that LeBron either does a sign and trade with Cleveland in 2010 or signs with Cleveland outright as the Cavs are the ONLY team that can offer him the 10.5% pay-raise per year while the rest of the NBA can only give him 8% during the first few years of his contract.


2010/2011: $16,509,600 (Age 25)
2011/2012: $18,243,108 (Age 26)
2012/2013: $20,158,634 (Age 27)
2013/2014: $22,275,290 (Age 28)
2014/2015: $24,614,195 (Age 29)
2015/2016: $27,198,685 (Age 30)

LeBron then signs a 2nd max contract in the summer of 2016. I think his team will re-sign him to a 2nd max because he will still be in the prime of his career and have at least 3 more years left at MAX ability. And who knows how good LeBron really is by the time he maxes out? I mean he is THIS good at 23...imagine what he will be like at age 28-33.

Now I am assuming he again either re-signs with his current team or does a sign and trade, because that way he gets the 10.5% increase instead of just 8%. The first year of the new contract is always the same, which is 105% of the previous max-number.

2016/2017: $28,558,619 (Age 31)
2017/2018: $31,557,273 (Age 32)
2018/2019: $34,870,786 (Age 33)
2019/2020: $38,532,218 (Age 34
2020/2021: $42,578,100 (Age 35)

So is that accurate? Can LeBron really make up to $42 million for a single season? Or did I miss some part of the CBA? It just seems too m uch when you consider that Kobe only gets paid $19 million this year and he is already 29 years old and Kobe is maxed-out.

[lakerfan10770]

Your numbers are slightly off, it appears that you are compounding his raises, also the max amount for 2010-2011 season is likely to be higher than it currently is (16,509,600) but we won't know the amount until July 2010. But if we assume that he signs a max offer off of what we know now, then it works out like this:

Assuming he opts out in the summer of 2010 his max contract would be 105% of his previous salary or the max for a player with 7 years experience (which should be higher). But for now we will go with 105% of $15,779,912, which is $16,568,908.

2010-2011 - $16,568,908
2011-2012 - $18,308,643
2012-2013 - $20,048,378
2013-2014 - $21,788,113
2014-2015 - $23,527,848
2015-5016 - $25,267,583
Total - $125,509,473

A lot of things could change between now and then, but conceivably he could sign a 6 year deal after his current 4 year deal ends (which would work out to more money than opting out a year early) for about $136M. That would put him at around 31-32 when that deal runs out, which means he could conceivably sign another 6 year deal that would approach $218M. In the last season he would be about 37-38 making almost $44M.

[lakerfan10770]

Edit: Double post

[Three34]

Raises aren't 10.5% of every season. Just the first one.

[Dunkenstein]

My guess is that LeBron is more likely to say adios to Cleveland and sign a max contract with either the New York Knicks or the Brooklyn Nets. At five years with only 8% raises, using lakerfan's first year number, that contract should be in the $96M range.

[golfer2]

Your numbers might be low.

Assuming a salary cap of $65 million for the 2010/11 season, LeBron's maximum salary would be 30% of that, or $19.5 million (for the 2010/11 season).

If he re-signs with the Cavs and with 10.5% raises each year, his numbers for a 6 year contract:

2010/11: $19,500,000
2011/12: $21,547,500
2012/13: $23,595,000
2013/14: $25,642,500
2014/15: $27,690,000
2015/16: $29,737,500
Total: $147,712,500

If he signs with any other team (with enough cap space for the $19.5 million for 2010/11), his 6 year contract would be "only" $140,400,000. (EDIT - 5 years max from another team - $113,100,000)

My guess is that LeBron will ask for (and probably get) a 4 year contract with the 4th year a player option - he can then opt out after 3 years and sign a new contract for 35% of the salary cap - that contract would probably be a 6 year contract in the neighborhood of $200 million.

[Dunkenstein]

If he signs with any other team (with enough cap space for the $19.5 million for 2010/11), his 6 year contract would be "only" $140,400,000.

If he signs with any other team, the maximum length of his contract is 5 years.

[bstein14]

If he signs with another team it will likely be 3 years guaranteed with a 4th year player option.

Thus, after 3 years, he'll opt to become a FA at age 28 and resign a 6 year deal with max raises.

Also, he'd be a 10 year vet and a max deal will start at 35% of the cap. That will be in 2013 and a fair estimate of the cap by then might be $75 million. Thus his deal could start at $26.25 with 10.5% raises (about $2.75 mil per season).

13-14:$26.25 (Age 28)
14-15:$29.00
15-16:$31.75
16-17:$34.50
17-18:$37.25
18-19:$40.00 (Age 33)

[Dekko1]

And now reports that Olympiakos might offer him as much as 40 million per to play in Europe...now the competition is getting serious...

[FGump]

And now reports that Olympiakos might offer him as much as 40 million per to play in Europe...now the competition is getting serious...

If you're going to keep tossing out info as supposed "fact" you need to start getting it right. Based on the other sloppy inaccuracies you've been strewing here since you arrived, I went and fact-checked this - because it would be a real story - and (no surprise to me) it's not on the mark at all.

The reports only say that Olympiakos might make Lebron an offer. No dollar amount stated as to any possible and purely theoretical amount they are thinking of. The competition may not be serious at all.

The $40M figure was just a reporter, musing about the idea, and randomly pulling a number out of his butt and saying "what if they offered this much?" In theory anyone can say Olympiakos might offer him any amount, even BILLION a year, but a sharp reader will understand that idle guesses and what-if's aren't news.

[Dekko1]

And now reports that Olympiakos might offer him

The reports only say that Olympiakos [b]might make Lebron an offer.


The $40M figure was just a reporter,

The competition may not be serious at all.

Oh Yeah... huge difference...gee thanks for clearing that up...any euroleague making a run for LeBronn certainly would not have to make an absurd offer to tempt him (and nike) to leave the NBA...

[golfer2]

If he signs with any other team (with enough cap space for the $19.5 million for 2010/11), his 6 year contract would be "only" $140,400,000.

If he signs with any other team, the maximum length of his contract is 5 years.

Thanks

You are correct sir.

My first mistake today.



His total contract for 5 years would be $113,100,000.

[dlbroo]

I know this is a little nit-picky but, I think all of your numbers are a little high. It's more likely the salary cap will go down next year. I'm guessing it will be around $55 million...

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q10

[casey]

So is that accurate? Can LeBron really make up to $42 million for a single season? Or did I miss some part of the CBA? It just seems too m uch when you consider that Kobe only gets paid $19 million this year and he is already 29 years old and Kobe is maxed-out.

If KG had signed max contracts on his two past extensions he could be getting almost $45Mil this season. As far as Kobe and Bron, look at what their 2nd contracts were. Kobe's wasn't a max deal, it started at $9Mil. LeBron's started at $13.

[Bigdog1]

the nba wouldn't survive if they have to play 1 player that kind of money, even if that person was the King himself.

[Mezotarkus]

And now reports that Olympiakos might offer him as much as 40 million per to play in Europe...now the competition is getting serious...

If you're going to keep tossing out info as supposed "fact" you need to start getting it right. Based on the other sloppy inaccuracies you've been strewing here since you arrived, I went and fact-checked this - because it would be a real story - and (no surprise to me) it's not on the mark at all.

The reports only say that Olympiakos might make Lebron an offer. No dollar amount stated as to any possible and purely theoretical amount they are thinking of. The competition may not be serious at all.

The $40M figure was just a reporter, musing about the idea, and randomly pulling a number out of his butt and saying "what if they offered this much?" In theory anyone can say Olympiakos might offer him any amount, even BILLION a year, but a sharp reader will understand that idle guesses and what-if's aren't news.

Might want to put the holier than thou attitude in the closet.
http://dimemag.com/2008/08/olympiakos-i ... or-lebron/

[FGump]

What does that article prove for us? It has no quote, no interview, just use of the word "reportedly," and it is NOT a current article. It dates back to the time of the previous discussion here, when a reporter made up a what-if number and then it became widely misconstrued and misreported that the Greeks were actually mulling an offer in that amount.

It's all nothing more than idle speculation by a reporter imo. But if you can show an actual quote by the Greeks, an interview, or anything else to indicate the 40-50 number is THEIR number, I'm willing to listen. Otherwise, it's just writers sloppily filling columns with insupportable fantasy and people posting stuff without any reliable basis.

[Mezotarkus]

What does that article prove for us? It has no quote, no interview, just use of the word "reportedly," and it is NOT a current article. It dates back to the time of the previous discussion here, when a reporter made up a what-if number and then it became widely misconstrued and misreported that the Greeks were actually mulling an offer in that amount.

It's all nothing more than idle speculation by a reporter imo. But if you can show an actual quote by the Greeks, an interview, or anything else to indicate the 40-50 number is THEIR number, I'm willing to listen. Otherwise, it's just writers sloppily filling columns with insupportable fantasy and people posting stuff without any reliable basis.

The Dime magazine article was summarizing an interview that appeared in the Akron Beacon where a beat writer quoted an Olympiakos representative as saying paying a massive salary for an NBA player would be equivalent to paying a massive fee to "buy" an English football player. Paying $100 million for a football player is not unheard of. Whether paying $100 million to a team or a player is irrelevant to the signing team. THAT'S where the $50 million number came from - that conversation. $100 million fee analogy dividend by two years.

The ironic thing here is the guy above said there were "reports" speculating about a $40m deal, that's hardly someone saying "this is fact". Yet you come on here, google a few terms and find Ian Thomsen's article (and you fall prey to SI's inability to attribute anything to anyone other than themselves) and assume that must be the source of this $40 million figure. You then come on here and parade that as "fact". Not everything every fact is documented on the internet. Don't use google as the alpha and omega of facts.

[FGump]

YOU cited the Dime mag article as proof that the Greeks might offer LBJ 50M per yr ...and now you want to say, when it has nothing of the sort, that it's a mistake to expect it to have proof in it?

Now you refer to some "Akron Beacon" article - but provide no link, no quote, just random allusions.

Obviously we're right back where we started, with a bunch of "someone said something somewhere, I think" that falls far short of Olympiakos expecting to be in the absurdly generous mode.

Give me a quote from Olympiakos, or an interview with them, where THEY (not the reporters) actually are saying they might pay big numbers like that. That's all I've asked, and you haven't offered anything better than we've seen before ...in fact, all you've brought is a link to an article more than a year old that is 3rd-hand-or-farther from any possible source itself. "Someone reported" is subject to the misinterpretations of the writer, or may give the story more credence than the original article contained.

In the ultimate scheme of things, franchise owners in various sports will indeed invest $100M in a player. But they do so with the expectation that it can yield them a profitable return in some way somewhere down the line. Given the sport infrastructure that is lacking in Euro-ball, they are stretching to justify Childress at $6M or so. So suddenly they can afford $50M???????

Besides, I see no way Lebron would want to go to Europe. How many NBA titles can he win there? Why would he want to put up with the crap they have to deal with in games there, with the security issues, travel issues, and odd schedules? It's not the same sort of playing situation at all, a fact which people casually ignore.

In any event, if you have something to add with some meat on it, bring it to the table. What we had a year ago, when it was a fresh story, was totally unsupported specualtion, and I thought someone needed to say so. If you have better, feel free to show it so we can understand the landscape better... but so far, you got nuthin'.

[Mezotarkus]

Oh I get it, you're one of those netmessiahs that can't ever accept they are wrong. Sorry my earlier post was not a CSI episode on the subject. Not everyone has the time to type out multiple paragraphs of hyperbolic backpedaling. Sorry I didn't go find the newspaper article in the public library and scan it for you so you could see it on "the internets" and know then it was fact.

You're comparing the Childress signing to Lebron. Now I understand your naming choice.

European basketball clubs are owned by owners with as deep pockets if not deeper pockets that many football teams. And of course a Lebron signing would be a transformative event that would shift the economics of the league to a new paradigm. Go look up "finance" on Wikipedia.

I'm done with Mr. Gump.