Magic Math: Orlando to win 56 games

[drsd]

Last year, I introduced Magic Math at Believing in Magic and I have to say, it was pretty accurate. My score ended up giving 50 wins, just two off. Basically it is a simple add/subtract method based on last year’s play. Damien got 53, so it was accurate for two avid Magic fans. Aside from a few Darko fans on a MB that didn’t understand that you could subtract too, it was a hit. I will give it a shot again this year and see if Magic Math is an accurate measure for predicting Magic success.

Magic Math: Orlando to win 56 games

This is a fan-friendly way to think about a team. What this back-of-the-envelope math does not consider enough how team movement by other teams effects the East. But still, a fun way to use +/- to come to a prediction.

Anyhow, using the Math of this link, I came to 52 wins.

[eyriq]

I got 60, though I actually think 62 and am pulling for 62. That was a fun way of looking at it!

[craig01]

But if he is planning on more than a minor injury and depending on who and how long it is, it is unlikley that the team could gain ground if it were one of the 4 primary players.

[glennathan]

I got a total of 58. I would like us to break our team record high for wins in 60 but I dont see us getting all the way there. I could definitely see over 55 easily though.

[SOUL]

I'll say around 50-55 until we finish out the roster. We have way too many SG's and need one more big

[theTHIEF]

heart says 60...mind says 122...logic says, 56ish?

[TheRevTy]

122? Is that undefeated all the way through finals? I like it! 122 it is!

[richboy]

I have a system I use that really just takes an analysis of team schedule and a breakdown of what kind of teams they beat. Then I kind of look at improvement of themselves and the teams that they did most of the damage against. Then make a determination if they can repeat that effort. At the same time look at the teams that the struggled against and see if they can pick up new wins in places.

For example the Bulls of 07 won 49 games but 34 wins were against 12 teams. Most of there wins were against 1/3 the league. Those teams saw significant improvement and the Bulls only won 19 games against those same teams last year. Whats funny is the Bulls record stayed the same against the rest of the league. All the talk was the Bulls got worse. Chances are the Bulls were never that good and once some of the teams they ate up improved the real Baby Bulls showed up.

Some of those same things do show with our season. Last year we won 52 games but 35 of them were against 13 teams. We were 35-8 against these teams

Boston 2 1
Charlotte 3 1
Chicago 4 0
Cleveland 3 1
Miami 4-0
Toronto 2-1
Milwaukee 2-1
New Jersey 3-1
Philadelphia 3-1
Washington 3-1

Clippers 2-0
Portland 2-0
Seattle 2-0

Our chances of having a better season will fall a lot on our ability to duplicate these results next year. I personally have my doubts that we can do these numbers again. I'm not sure even if we come close unless injuries happen to these teams. Charlotte, Miami, Toronto, Milwaukee, Phili, Washington, Clippers, and Portland should all be better than they were last year. If we loose 7-10 more games against these opponents we will have to find 7-10 wins that we didn't have last year. Not easy since most of those wins would have to come against much better teams. Most of our struggles last year came against elite WC teams. Only the Hawks and Pistons beat us in the East twice. 4 teams in the West did it and perhaps a couple of more would have if not for big injuries.

[mhectorgato]

....

Our chances of having a better season will fall a lot on our ability to duplicate these results next year. I personally have my doubts that we can do these numbers again. I'm not sure even if we come close unless injuries happen to these teams. Charlotte, Miami, Toronto, Milwaukee, Phili, Washington, Clippers, and Portland should all be better than they were last year. If we loose 7-10 more games against these opponents we will have to find 7-10 wins that we didn't have last year. Not easy since most of those wins would have to come against much better teams. Most of our struggles last year came against elite WC teams. Only the Hawks and Pistons beat us in the East twice. 4 teams in the West did it and perhaps a couple of more would have if not for big injuries.

Why am I not surprised ...


My vote is in the 54-58 wins range .. but on the lower-mid end of that, 54 to 56. Hopefully I'll have to eat crow again this coming season

[Catledge]

Some good observations rich. We got lucky with a couple of injuries (I seem to think that KG was injured for both of our wins against Boston) and, more importantly, had very few injuries of our own.

However, it seems to me that with Dwight and Jameer maturing a little, Battie back, Lewis getting a little better at playing the four with a year of experience, and Pietrus giving us a little better defense at the SG, we have enough reasonable hopes for improvement to expect to do at least as well as we did last year (assuming no major injuries of our own).

[richboy]

Some good observations rich. We got lucky with a couple of injuries (I seem to think that KG was injured for both of our wins against Boston) and, more importantly, had very few injuries of our own.

However, it seems to me that with Dwight and Jameer maturing a little, Battie back, Lewis getting a little better at playing the four with a year of experience, and Pietrus giving us a little better defense at the SG, we have enough reasonable hopes for improvement to expect to do at least as well as we did last year (assuming no major injuries of our own).

I'm not a fan of Battie. I think he causes more losses than he does wins. I obviously not a big fan of MP and don't see him as a big difference maker. I think looking for improvement from Dwight, Jameer and Rashard more likely than the others making a massive difference. I'll put it this way. If were going to do better against the West next year to make up the difference then I doubt Battie or MP be the reason why. I don't see them as capable of helping us match last years numbers against those 13 teams. Us getting MP is not equal to Miami getting healthy Wade, Beasley, or Marion. Phili getting Brand. Milwaukee getting RJ. Washington missed 100 games from Arenas and Butler last year and won 43 games. Bobcats with Larry Brown and maybe a healthy roster. I'm not saying we can't do it but just pointing out what is in front of us.

We did benefit a lot from Injuries and being healthy last year. You mentioned Boston although I think KG was healthy for our first win over them. We also beat NO without Paul. We beat Houston without Tmac. We beat the Lakers before the Gasol the trade. The biggest injuries that helped us were in Miami, Washington, Charlotte and Cleveland. Those teams had a ton of injuries and we picked up 13 wins against them and only 3 losses. Us being healthy was extremely important last year. No way we win close to 52 games if we suffered the injuries they did.

[Forest]

This team has filled in some of its major weaknesses from last season; A new starting shooting guard and a returning back up big man. MP and Battie, indivually won't improve this team much, but it opens up new things defensively and improves our versatility. At the moment we will basically have 4, eventually 5, new faces that will see playing time compared to last season (Gortat, Battie, Lee, AJ, and most likely another 3rd string Point guard). Our depth has improved, still nothing to write home about. You never know Lee could surprise us, but I'll keep my expectations moderate. Anyways, 50 wins should be a staple for this team. I see no reason to believe 6 teams in the eastern conference are going to be that much better as Richboy is suggesting. The same logic he applies to our team he doesn't apply to the very unhealthy teams that are improving. It doesn't make sense. With so many "unhealthy" eastern conference teams last season its means they "benifited" just as equally as us. They played unhealthy competition, too. So there record isn't as bad as it could have been. I really don't think if those teams were healthy it would have made much difference. We should continue to beat up on MIami, Washington, Charlotte, and Cleveland, we have beaten these rosters when they were healthy at times last year and the year before. Anyways, every offseason every team thinks they are getting better, we are guilty ourselves. However, we are at least proven for a year and we have Dwight Howard and a great coach, SVG. But as for every year, the biggest improvement this team can see, rest with Dwight Howard and his own individual improvement.

[ivDT]

22-60.

[Catledge]

I'm not a fan of Battie as a starter, but I think he's an upgrade from out first big off the bench from last year, and am only mildly optimistic about MP (I think at the very least that he's unlikely to be worse than what we got out of that position last year; I know you disagree, rich; no need to hash that out here), but I think between all of the possibilities that I mentioned, enough are likely to go well to make up for the 4-5 losses rich's logic accounts for.

[craig01]

As long as the magic stay mostly injury free with the 4 primary players.

Anything significant to Howard, Lewis, Hedo, Nelson could be quite painful should they be out quite a while.

[whocares]

1. with a slight improvement from last year, 39-43.
2. by the way, if arenas is healthy and stays with the wizards, the wizards will be a worse team.
3. the guy is simply detrimental to the rest of the "team".

[trebone]

55 wins if everyone stays relatively healthy, the east will be much better as richboy states but we should be as well, I am not impressed with MP at all with his past play but maybe a change of scenery and SVG yelling at him will help his game... maybe learn how to pass, dribble, and shoot a little better oh and cut down the stupid mistakes.

[richboy]

This team has filled in some of its major weaknesses from last season; A new starting shooting guard and a returning back up big man. MP and Battie, indivually won't improve this team much, but it opens up new things defensively and improves our versatility. At the moment we will basically have 4, eventually 5, new faces that will see playing time compared to last season (Gortat, Battie, Lee, AJ, and most likely another 3rd string Point guard). Our depth has improved, still nothing to write home about. You never know Lee could surprise us, but I'll keep my expectations moderate. Anyways, 50 wins should be a staple for this team. I see no reason to believe 6 teams in the eastern conference are going to be that much better as Richboy is suggesting. The same logic he applies to our team he doesn't apply to the very unhealthy teams that are improving. It doesn't make sense. With so many "unhealthy" eastern conference teams last season its means they "benifited" just as equally as us. They played unhealthy competition, too. So there record isn't as bad as it could have been. I really don't think if those teams were healthy it would have made much difference. We should continue to beat up on MIami, Washington, Charlotte, and Cleveland, we have beaten these rosters when they were healthy at times last year and the year before. Anyways, every offseason every team thinks they are getting better, we are guilty ourselves. However, we are at least proven for a year and we have Dwight Howard and a great coach, SVG. But as for every year, the biggest improvement this team can see, rest with Dwight Howard and his own individual improvement.

Unless I've missed something I haven't posted any predictions on other teams. Matter of fact I didn't predict anything with us. I just stated a breakdown of our season and what would be needed to to have that same kind of season. I haven't finished my breakdown for every team. I can tell you right now that i be surprised to see many 50 win teams in the East because the depth is much more. I'm expecting all 3 of the top teams to loose more games. I'm not sure if Boston will even win 60 games because of the level of depth in the East has improved. Washington could add a healthy Arenas and 30 added games from Butler but I only had them 5 games better.

I disagree that they would be worse. I don't think they be great with Arenas. I don't have them winning 50 games either. Remember last time Butler, Arenas, Jamison was all healthy they did have the best record in the East at the break and look on a 50 win pace.

Next to say we can keep beating up on healthy Miami, Cleveland etc when in fact we haven't. We weren't even a 500 team prior to last year. We weren't beating on much of any healthy teams. Most of those teams were not healthy at all any time last year except for perhaps Cleveland at the end of the season.

Lot of this is about win total if all things stay equal. Injuries can really change the dynamics of the sport. Cleveland lost 7 games from James that I'm not sure they won any of them. Daniel Gibson, Anderson Varejao missed a ton of games. They would have most likely won games if they were healthy last year. With the strength of the East I think they will have a tougher time as well.

Simply put for the first time in years the East may be pretty tough. Milwaukee is probably not a playoff team. They could be considered better than us at PG, SG, and SF. Andrew Bogut is a double double center.

How many teams did people think improved last year. The only teams that made a major move were Boston, Orlando and the Knicks. The Knicks added Randolph is in not all that much of a move. Boston and us were much improved. Who elese expected big improvement. This year 3 teams made big trades involving them getting all-stars in return. Last year both high picks went to the West. This year both of them came to the East. Miami pretty much played few games with Marion last year. Wade was hurt and now they added a top 2 pick. Even though I don't think Washington is winning a ton more games they have to feel if Butler and Arenas are healthy they will win more than 43 games.

[craig01]

Bogut, a double double center?

Yeah, if you add up his back to backs

A bit of a stretch......

[eyriq]

While it is one thing to throw out a number without looking at the schedule, it is another to look at the offensive and defensive personnel and determine how good or bad they will probably be. It also goes into me thinking the Magic can win 62 games next year.

Last year the Magic were a balanced team on both sides of the ball ranking in the top 6 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

We had three guys who can be considered strong defenders; Howard, Foyle, and Dooling.

Then we had a bunch of guys that were average; Turk, Lewis, Bogans, Evans, and Nelson.

On offense we had three guys who can be considered strong offensive players; Howard, Turk, and Lewis.

Then we had a bunch of guys that were average; Nelson, Dooling, Evans, Cook.

The reason I am optimistic about next season is because we will be adding Battie and MP to our strong defensive core. Even with the loss of Dooling and with Foyle likely not seeing much PT, I think our defense, both in the post and on the perimeter, gains in strength and quite substantially at that. Battie is much more versatile than Foyle and so will get more burn at multiple positions, and the same goes for MP, who can also guard bigger offensive threats that we had no way of matching up with last year (yes you, Rip).

On offense I think that Nelson is ready to make that leap up to being a strong offensive player for the Magic, and with his increased role next year that development will have a big impact. Also keep in mind that if Redick gets some serious PT we could have another strong offensive player to add to our core, increasing the teams offensive efficiency. I would also argue that MP is at least as good offensively as Evans, and that Anthony Johnson is probably as good as Dooling on offense when you factor in his better distribution skills.

Bottom line is I think we jump into the top 4 in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, giving us an elite team. The East is catching up with the west, and the mores the better for us Magic fans. If our team is up to the challenge it will just make the journey that much sweeter.