This year's roster as they fill last year's roles

[chakdaddy]

I was just thinking about last year's team and how nearly everyone had a fairly well defined niche, with 3-4 superfluous guys; obviously Brown and Posey's roles and maybe Cassell's will have to be replaced. I thought Patrick O'Bryant would be more of a developmental signing, but it seems more and more apparent that he will play PJ Brown's role.

I'll just address the bench since the starter's are unchanged. Here are last year's bench roles.

Posey - big wing defender for 2/3's; 4 and floor stretcher for small lineup.
Brown - 5 with length.
Powe - 4 with hustle / scoring ability, but without length.
Davis - 4/5 with hustle / defensive ability, but without length.
House - back up point, shooter
Cassell - 3rd point/ anti Lindsey Hunter dribbler / ultimately kinda useless/unnecessary
T. Allen - wing defender / ultimately superfluous and unnecessary
Pruitt - unnecessary/probably useless/developmental
Scalabrine - useless/comedy
Pollard - useless/comedy

this year:
O'Bryant - replaces Brown as big man with length
Pruitt - steps up to 3rd PG role
T. Allen - replaces Posey as wing defender - but can't shoot, and kind of short
Powe/Davis - take more of Posey's minutes at the 4, ie less small lineup - better rebounding, but again, can't shoot

Scal remains useless; and along with Giddens/Walker should be the 3 inactives under ideal circumstances.

That leaves 1 roster spot, with Posey's role not necessarily adequately filled. We could use another guy who can shoot, and a bigger 3 who we can throw at LeBron/Kobe. Maybe Finley could be the first or Devean George the 2nd, but it's hard to find someone who can do both like Posey could. And even then, this is relying heavily on O'Bryant. It should be interesting.

It probably would be nice to stash Walker in europe...but if he comes to camp and doesn't make the team, don't we lose his rights? If we can stash him, then with 2 roster spots we could try to get 2 guys to replace Posey, or a Posey replacement and another big. How comfortable do we feel about Tony Allen giving up height to LeBron and Kobe? I prefer throwing Tony at the Billupses of the world. Honestly, I am still pretty disappointed to see Posey go, even though he obviously wasn't a big star, he's difficult to replace and became one of my real favorites.

[ParticleMan]

There isn't only one way to build a champion. We don't have to exactly replicate all the roles. The important thing is that we have quality players. The main uncertainty is whether or not the young kids can step up. But if not, we have the trading deadline to make a deal, or sign PJ, or whatever.

[Fencer reregistered]

Replacing a shooter (Posey) with a slasher (T. Allen) isn't necessarily a loss offensively, given the rest of the players. Pierce and Garnett, for example, are both perfectly happy to be outside shooters if that's what the personnel mix calls for.

[captain_cheapseats]

Agree with Particleman & Fencer.....there's zero reason to think that we have to replicate last year's team exactly to be successful.

I'm actually hoping that we DON'T try to fill the roles that Posey and Brown played with new players. I'd rather see TA and Powe get the chance to show that they can be better fits for this team than Posey/Brown were last year. I actually think having Brown hurt us in the playoffs by taking minutes from Powe, who I consider a superior player both generally and within the Celtics' system. I also think that, when healthy, TA is much better than Posey, even playing out of position at the 3. But anyway, that's just my opinion and I'm certainly no authority, so maybe we really will miss those guys. But I'll bet that if Doc gives TA and Powe 25+ minutes a night off the bench -- along with House and Baby (or POB if he wins Baby's spot) filling out the other two spots -- everyone will foget about last year's departed bench players very, very quickly.

[campybatman]

From an age and talent standpoint, I believe next season's roster is better than this season's roster. But, it's up to those young returning players and new faces to step up.

Pierce = Pierce
Garnett = Garnett
R. Allen < R. Allen
Perkins < Perkins
Rondo < Rondo
Scalabrine = Scalabrine
T. Allen < T. Allen
Powe = Powe
G. Davis < G. Davis
Posey > Giddens/Walker
House = House
Pollard/P. Brown > O'Bryant
Cassell < Pruitt

[chakdaddy]

Agree with Particleman & Fencer.....there's zero reason to think that we have to replicate last year's team exactly to be successful.

I'm actually hoping that we DON'T try to fill the roles that Posey and Brown played with new players. I'd rather see TA and Powe get the chance to show that they can be better fits for this team than Posey/Brown were last year. I actually think having Brown hurt us in the playoffs by taking minutes from Powe, who I consider a superior player both generally and within the Celtics' system. I also think that, when healthy, TA is much better than Posey, even playing out of position at the 3. But anyway, that's just my opinion and I'm certainly no authority, so maybe we really will miss those guys.

The problem is Powe and Davis simply don't have the height to fill Brown's shoes; if we don't fill Brown's role, then Perkins/KG is the only combo we have that can defend against a good, big frontline. In other words, unless we fill Brown's role - we simply don't have an adequate backup center.

I think moving from a shooter to a slasher in Allen could be ok offensively, replacing Posey with a combo of Tony and Powe might be ok - maybe with a limited offensively but defensively solid big 3 thrown in the mix as well. For all Posey's supposed defensive prowess, I think his hustle and leadership were more important this year, as an individual defender he actually seemed good but not necessarily spectacular...seemed like Kobe blew by him surprisingly often.

[captain_cheapseats]

The problem is Powe and Davis simply don't have the height to fill Brown's shoes; if we don't fill Brown's role, then Perkins/KG is the only combo we have that can defend against a good, big frontline.

The defense would certainly be down-graded a 'bit, but I would argue that the offense/rebounding gains would more than compensate for any deficiency. I'd be comfortable with any of the following 5 combinations no matter who the opponent was: KG/Perk, KG/Powe, KG/Baby, Perk/Powe, Perk/Baby.

[chakdaddy]

I'd be comfortable with any of the following 5 combinations no matter who the opponent was: KG/Perk, KG/Powe, KG/Baby, Perk/Powe, Perk/Baby.

Even against Bynum/Gasol, Shaq/Amare, or Oden/Aldridge?? They'd score effortlessly right over the top of Baby or Powe.

[captain_cheapseats]

Even against Bynum/Gasol, Shaq/Amare, or Oden/Aldridge?? They'd score effortlessly right over the top of Baby or Powe.

You make a very good point, those would certainly be tough match-ups. However:

(1) How often are Powe/Baby actually going to be on the court against combos with that kind of size/offensive skill? Basically 6 games against the teams you mentioned, plus another ?4? or so against Toronto. Also, Powe/Baby are bench guys so -- even if we had to play one of those teams in the playoffs -- there aren't going to be a whole lot of minutes where they'll be out there against both opposing starters. It's more realistic to expect they'd be competing (alongside KG or Perk) against any one of the guys you mentioned and a big off the bench. So it'd be more like Powe/KG against Amare/Lopez or Aldridge/Pryzbilla.

(2) Even on the relatively infrequent occasions Powe/Baby might be forced to play against those kinds of duos, I still prefer them to Brown. Yes, Brown could defend the guys you listed above better than Powe/Baby. But he'd also lose the rebounding battle and allow them to rest/conserve fouls on the defensive end. Powe/Baby will give up more points, but will give us a chance on the glass and force those guys to work/give fouls.

I guess at the end of the day any reserve big is going to struggle if you put him up against the guys you mention, there's just no getting around that. But I don't think Powe/Baby would be any worse off than Brown was when faced with that kind of challenge. They might give up more points, but should compensate by getting more rebounds and scoring a few points of their own.

[ParticleMan]

I'd be comfortable with any of the following 5 combinations no matter who the opponent was: KG/Perk, KG/Powe, KG/Baby, Perk/Powe, Perk/Baby.

Even against Bynum/Gasol, Shaq/Amare, or Oden/Aldridge?? They'd score effortlessly right over the top of Baby or Powe.

I disagree. Powe, particularly, has defended bigger players all his life. Last season his 1-on-1 defense was quite good (though his help D was pretty poor). He is amazingly adept at drawing charges- he was one of the team leaders, despite playing a fairly low # of mins. Baby is good at that too. They are strong enough to push guys off their spots.

The problem is not when guys shoot over you- that's fine, if they're going to make shots that way, let em. The problem happens when guys use their quickness to get to the front of the rim. That's when you're giving up high % shots. Although Amare and Aldridge can shoot from the outside, I'd much rather them do that than putting on a dunking clinic. Powe and, when in shape, Baby, have quick enough feet that they're not going to geive up the blow-by. That's all it takes to be an effective defender against bigs, you don't have to be some big shotblocker.

[ryaningf]

I disagree. Powe, particularly, has defended bigger players all his life. Last season his 1-on-1 defense was quite good (though his help D was pretty poor). He is amazingly adept at drawing charges- he was one of the team leaders, despite playing a fairly low # of mins. Baby is good at that too. They are strong enough to push guys off their spots.

Just to follow up on this point. Powe was second on the team last season in taking charges (he had 30 for the year, Pierce had 31). But he was first by a huge margin in charges taken per 48 minutes, with a ridiculous rate of 1.78 per 48 minutes. Posey was second at .73 per 48. And Pierce was 3rd at .52 per 48.

All statistic evidence points towards Powe being a very efficient player on both sides of the ball. It'll be exciting in this upcoming year to see if his per minute efficiency holds true with greater minutes. Right now, he's my pick for our 6th man, though TA could easily overtake him once he gains his all his confidence back.

[chakdaddy]

The problem is not when guys shoot over you- that's fine, if they're going to make shots that way, let em. The problem happens when guys use their quickness to get to the front of the rim. That's when you're giving up high % shots. Although Amare and Aldridge can shoot from the outside, I'd much rather them do that than putting on a dunking clinic. Powe and, when in shape, Baby, have quick enough feet that they're not going to geive up the blow-by. That's all it takes to be an effective defender against bigs, you don't have to be some big shotblocker.

Well, I disagree about that - I didn't mean jumpshots over people, just going in and getting easy layins and short hooks without really being bothered by a shorter defender. Ilgauskas did a lot of that when PJ wasn't guarding him.

I completely disagree about shooting over you being preferable to guys using quickness. At least when a guy uses his quickness he gets tired out a little. If he just goes right over a guy too small to bother him, it's effortless. That's how Van Gundy lost the '99 finals, letting Duncan shoot right over LJ rather than making Duncan outwork a Camby/Dudley/Herb Williams combo. Taken to extremes, it's why it's easier to play 1 on 1 against a little tiny kid than a slow but big old man, IMO.

[chakdaddy]

(1) How often are Powe/Baby actually going to be on the court against combos with that kind of It's more realistic to expect they'd be competing (alongside KG or Perk) against any one of the guys you mentioned and a big off the bench. So it'd be more like Powe/KG against Amare/Lopez or Aldridge/Pryzbilla.

(2) Even on the relatively infrequent occasions Powe/Baby might be forced to play against those kinds of duos, I still prefer them to Brown. Yes, Brown could defend the guys you listed above better than Powe/Baby. But he'd also lose the rebounding battle and allow them to rest/conserve fouls on the defensive end. Powe/Baby will give up more points, but will give us a chance on the glass and force those guys to work/give fouls.

But I don't think Powe/Baby would be any worse off than Brown was when faced with that kind of challenge. They might give up more points, but should compensate by getting more rebounds and scoring a few points of their own.

The biggest issue would be in the playoffs, where we would be Perk foul trouble or injury away from a huge disadvantage against any type of twin tower configuration. I still think PJ was basically the only guy with length we had; Perkins was better against a power kind of center, and Davis can play against a power guy, but anyone athletic or really tall, only PJ had the length to defend.

It always seemed to me like PJ got tons of rebounds as well down the stretches; Powe especially grabbed plenty as well but I don't know that it is all that much better than PJ. Also, against bigger guys, Powe seemed to get shut down on offense as well.

I really like Leon and and think Davis can be very effective as well, and I definitely want to see more of them this year and see them develop futher, I agree with you there; but I do think we'll always need another long guy in the mix - this mix and match situational rotation is what Doc got criticized for but eventually was hailed as genius. Hopefully O'Bryant can be effective in that role when that role is needed.

Sometimes it seems like our big man rotation is like rock paper scissors with height (PJ), strength (Big Baby), and whatever you want to call the mix of hustle/reasonable athleticism/guts that makes Powe great in certain situations. They can all get trumped but we can usually swap to the next guy.

I kind of envision Powe and Davis getting more minutes this year to replace Posey's time at the 4 in small lineups, while a combo of Davis and O'Bryant replaces PJ - I just hope O'B will be effective.

[billfromBoston]

The problem is not when guys shoot over you- that's fine, if they're going to make shots that way, let em. The problem happens when guys use their quickness to get to the front of the rim. That's when you're giving up high % shots. Although Amare and Aldridge can shoot from the outside, I'd much rather them do that than putting on a dunking clinic. Powe and, when in shape, Baby, have quick enough feet that they're not going to geive up the blow-by. That's all it takes to be an effective defender against bigs, you don't have to be some big shotblocker.

Well, I disagree about that - I didn't mean jumpshots over people, just going in and getting easy layins and short hooks without really being bothered by a shorter defender. Ilgauskas did a lot of that when PJ wasn't guarding him.

I completely disagree about shooting over you being preferable to guys using quickness. At least when a guy uses his quickness he gets tired out a little. If he just goes right over a guy too small to bother him, it's effortless. That's how Van Gundy lost the '99 finals, letting Duncan shoot right over LJ rather than making Duncan outwork a Camby/Dudley/Herb Williams combo. Taken to extremes, it's why it's easier to play 1 on 1 against a little tiny kid than a slow but big old man, IMO.

...actually, Ilgauskas did very little of this at all...he was well defended by Davis and Powe when he tried to post up...Z did most of his damage on catch-and-shoot from the baseline on pick-and-pop plays...your premise has merit, but your example is wrong...

Only the top-end post players have an advantage over Davis or Powe in the low-post...we're talking about 6 or 7 players that have the skill to make this an issue...and that doesn't account for the things both of them do well that the opponent struggles with--there is a reason they played so much...

...BTW, totally discouting O'Bryant when analyzing this situatiuon may not be a great idea...nothing is a "given" until its proven on the court...

[FBNF34]

IMO, to think that "Tony must be better next season!"or"Gabe can be a great back-up!" is not right..How good they will be,WHO KNOWS?

So,
we really need a D-tweener who can sub not only Pierce but KG
we really need a vet-points who can shoot and dribble better than House
we really need a vet tall 4/5 who can d the pick&roll,

BUT,we have only one roster.........

a trade is needed..I don't why Ainge said our summer is nearly over.........

[floyd]

I think the problem against a team with a big frontline like Cleveland with Powe and Davis is more the glass than defending shots. Short guys just get screwed in the playoffs. The tall guys go right over their backs and the refs just don't call it. If the new kid doesn't pan out, we're gonna have to keep our fingers crossed we can pick up another PJ type player later in the season - especially with the dramatically improved frontlines in the division.

[ParticleMan]

The problem is not when guys shoot over you- that's fine, if they're going to make shots that way, let em. The problem happens when guys use their quickness to get to the front of the rim. That's when you're giving up high % shots. Although Amare and Aldridge can shoot from the outside, I'd much rather them do that than putting on a dunking clinic. Powe and, when in shape, Baby, have quick enough feet that they're not going to geive up the blow-by. That's all it takes to be an effective defender against bigs, you don't have to be some big shotblocker.

Well, I disagree about that - I didn't mean jumpshots over people, just going in and getting easy layins and short hooks without really being bothered by a shorter defender. Ilgauskas did a lot of that when PJ wasn't guarding him.

I completely disagree about shooting over you being preferable to guys using quickness. At least when a guy uses his quickness he gets tired out a little. If he just goes right over a guy too small to bother him, it's effortless. That's how Van Gundy lost the '99 finals, letting Duncan shoot right over LJ rather than making Duncan outwork a Camby/Dudley/Herb Williams combo. Taken to extremes, it's why it's easier to play 1 on 1 against a little tiny kid than a slow but big old man, IMO.

THere are so many things wrong with this argument it's hard to know where to begin.

1. Let's start simple. A good jumpshooter hits 40% of his shots. A poor finisher finishes 60% at the rim. So it makes sense to keep people away from the rim, no?

2. Guys are not going to be able to back down Powe and Baby. They are too strong. That's my point. They're not going to get short hooks and short shots. They didn't last year. When they try, more often than not that's how Powe picked up charges. They were in 1-on-1 defense (unlike Davis who got them mostly by stepping into a lane).

3. Ilgauskas didn't score most of his points on the post. He did most of his damage with jumpers. Now Z had a good series, but that's because we basically didn't pay any attention to him out there to help on Bron. And when it came to crunchtime, Z had a bad series: single digits in each of the last 3 games. That's what happens to mediocre jumpshooters when the going gets tough. If Z can beat us shooting 18 footers, tip your hat and go home.

4. How much is Powe/Baby going to play? He's not the starter. If we have Perk out for any length, of course we're going to suffer. If we have Pierce or Ray out we're screwed too. Does that mean we need to go out and load up on scrub wings?

5. You are WAY overrating PJ. I mean, I'm glad we had him and all. But he was pretty much a stiff out there. Don't let a couple of big plays he made overshadow that. His PER was awful. He was a non-threat offensively. Defensively, he played good position defense but not much help D and no shotblocking at all. Before you go on about PJ's "length", note that Powe has a comparable standing reach. And Powe is a better athlete (and hence had more blocks).

6. The comparison of Duncan vs LJ is laughable. LJ was a horrible defender even in his prime. And Duncan is a pretty good player too. If we have to play Powe against Duncan for an entire series we're screwed.

7. Would it be great to have a quality 7' backup? Sure. The question is, who? PJ Brown sucks. Mourning isn't walking thru that door, and neither is Mutombo. So who? That's the thing. I don't think anyone available is remotely as good as Powe or Baby. I mean, every team would love to have allstars 2-deep at every position. But that's not realistic.

[captain_cheapseats]

I really like Leon and and think Davis can be very effective as well, and I definitely want to see more of them this year and see them develop futher, I agree with you there; but I do think we'll always need another long guy in the mix - this mix and match situational rotation is what Doc got criticized for but eventually was hailed as genius. Hopefully O'Bryant can be effective in that role when that role is needed.

Sometimes it seems like our big man rotation is like rock paper scissors with height (PJ), strength (Big Baby), and whatever you want to call the mix of hustle/reasonable athleticism/guts that makes Powe great in certain situations. They can all get trumped but we can usually swap to the next guy.

I kind of envision Powe and Davis getting more minutes this year to replace Posey's time at the 4 in small lineups, while a combo of Davis and O'Bryant replaces PJ - I just hope O'B will be effective.

I've enjoyed the debate, but it looks like we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one. I still can't envision any situation where I wouldn't feel confident with our 4 bigs.

[captain_cheapseats]

Would it be great to have a quality 7' backup? Sure. The question is, who? PJ Brown sucks. Mourning isn't walking thru that door, and neither is Mutombo. So who? That's the thing. I don't think anyone available is remotely as good as Powe or Baby. I mean, every team would love to have allstars 2-deep at every position. But that's not realistic.

Not to hijack the thread or anything, but this raises an interesting question. If you could trade Baby for a big of entirely equal overall talent, but who had a more typical playing style for a reserve PF/C (e.g. 6'10" 235, solid all-around game but does not excell in any one area), would you do it?

Oh, and for all you die-hard Baby fans out there, please substitute "Powe" for "Baby" in the above question before answering.

[sam_I_am]

Rondo and Perkins will step up their games and will take more minutes. Tony Allen replaces Posey at the 3. Scalabrine replaces Posey as a 4. O'Bryant replaces PJ's role in the first half of the season (not playing) - and then somebody else will need to be found like PJ to fill that role at trade deadline. Giddens will challenge Tony for minutes as backup 2. House will have an expanded role. Gabe will not play.