Established players who will have breakout seasons

[ponder276]

It's easy to point out guys going into their 2nd or 3rd seasons who you think will have breakout years - most players at this age are improving rapidly from year to year. What's much harder is to predict breakout seasons for established players, who have already appeared to reach their peak (guys like Hedo Turkoglu or Chris Kaman last year). List these players in this thread, and explain why you think they'll break out.


I'll start it off:
I think Emeka Okafor is going to have a big season. The guy has offensive talent in the post, but Sam Vincent didn't know how to use him properly - instead of running the offense through Emeka in the post, he let guys like Jason Richardson and Raymond Felton dick around with the ball on the perimiter. Larry Brown is a fundamental/old-school coach, who likes his big men, and he'll have his team feeding Emeka whenever possible. Furthermore, the Bobcats have added DJ Augustin, who's excellent playmaking should help get Okafor an extra easy bucket or two per game.
Emeka put up 13.8/10.7/1.7 last season, I'm predicting his stats jump to 17/11/2 in 08/09.

[Rasheeed!!!]

Jamaal Tinsley....no, wait we say that every year and it never happens.

[Inc]

Homer Pick: John Salmons

Finally a full time starter and now that the Kings lack a scorer besides Kevin Martin, he will be seeing more shots, and handling the ball a little more since Kings lack a real 2nd PG. He is a great defender and since Artest is gone, he will be able to guard the opponent's best wing player and showcase his defense as well as his defense.

I predict his stats from 12.5/4.30/2.6 to 18/6/4 with great defense.

and wouldn't be suprised if he hit the 20 PPG

[ponder276]

Homer Pick: John Salmons

Finally a full time starter and now that the Kings lack a scorer besides Kevin Martin, he will be seeing more shots, and handling the ball a little more since Kings lack a real 2nd PG. He is a great defender and since Artest is gone, he will be able to guard the opponent's best wing player and showcase his defense as well as his defense.

I predict his stats from 12.5/4.30/2.6 to 18/6/4 with great defense.

and wouldn't be suprised if he hit the 20 PPG

Salmons is an excellent pick as well. He impressed me in most of the Kings games I saw last year, especially when he was starting. 20ppg would be pretty surprising, but 16-18ppg seems very possible.

[heatwillbeback]

Rudy Gay

he is gonna go from really good, to a legit all star. 25 ppg, 7 rpg. He is set to do that

[Chubby Chaser]

My homer pick is Pau Gasol. With Bynum coming back Pau is going to slide back into the 4 position. Bynum will also open up the lanes for Pau like Shaq did to Amare this past year.

I also have a feeling that Brand will go crazy next year. He's much suited for playing out east, instead of banging with the bigger bodies out west. He's finally healthy and I think he'll surprise a lot of people out there in Phili.

[dockingsched]

brand will never have a season like he did a couple of yrs back. he's a jump shooter now, something sixers fans don't understand.

my pick is tracy mcgrady. he's always performed well in the playoffs, always overshadowed by his team's failures. not this yr.

[joe.linnen]

Jordan Farmar:
he'll still comes off the bench but his minutes will increase

[dockingsched]

jordan farmar isn't established by any stretch of the imagination. he's only played 2 yrs, he's never been a regular starter, and never played more than 20 mpg.

[10scott10]

Homer: trevor ariza

serious: Jamal crawford

[jax98]

Joel Przybilla

Damn straight. Joel is going to come in and put down those 5/8/1 with attitude! Greg Oden, go home.

A more serious guess would be Mike Miller. I think he could surprise a lot of people. He was very good in Memphis, but began to look dis-interested in the franchise. Pairing him with Jefferson and having a good passing big man in Kevin Love at the high post could do wonders for his dribble-penetration.

[St.Nick]

Monta Ellis will go for 24/7, minimum. The Warriors lost about 35ppg with the departure of Baron, Pietrus, and Barnes. Maggette will take some of those ppg but Monta with the ball in his hands more often means more production. I think he will break out in a very big way this year.

I also think Bogut, Nate Robinson under D'Antoni, Francisco Garcia taking Ron Ron's minutes, and Marvin Williams will all have markedly good seasons.

[rutheredfox]

ellis is a good pick, but i think biedrins will have a breakout season. if nellie really focuses on developing the youth and rotates the ball around ellis and biedrins, both players can have a great year. biedrins is already putting up double double. i think his numbers are gonna go up to 15/12.

[farzi]

I think Aldridge will have the least impact of Portland's big 3, but he'll have the most PPG next season.

[Patty Mills]

carl landry

[And 1 Amare]

Monta Ellis will go for 24/7, minimum. The Warriors lost about 35ppg with the departure of Baron, Pietrus, and Barnes. Maggette will take some of those ppg but Monta with the ball in his hands more often means more production. I think he will break out in a very big way this year.

I also think Bogut, Nate Robinson under D'Antoni, Francisco Garcia taking Ron Ron's minutes, and Marvin Williams will all have markedly good seasons.

Pietrus and Barnes are easily replaceable with Anthony Randolph, Kelenna Azubuike, Corey Maggette etc. Besides Baron, who have the Warriors lost that was really of any significant importance last season? I actually think the team is much more deeper this season, especially if Nellie will play Belinelli and Wright more often.

I agree with you that Ellis will be great this year, I see him averaging around 25-27 points this upcoming season. I'll keep on with this post but basically the rest will be for other people to read...

Many people say that Ellis is just a product of Nellie's system and pace factor. Well, last season, Ellis averaged 20ppg while the team had 2 other 20ppg players on the wings. Baron averaged 20+ while Jackson averaged 20+ as well. Monta still managed to become a 20ppg player even though there were other 20ppg guards on the team. So even though his team's system is to play fast, the pace still didn't show the BEST of Ellis since he basically had to give the ball up to other guards/sf's so they can have their points as well. Now that he's the main guy on the team, he can finally start puttin in his best performances. Corey Maggette is a 20ppg player as well but I expect him to give up some of those points to Ellis.

Also, people also say that Ellis only plays good in a fastbreak offense. IMO Ellis can play in any system; he has one of the best mid range shots in the league and Marv Albert even stated that Ellis is on par with Rip Hamilton when it comes to that shot. The kid even averaged 26ppg on over 60% shooting for the entire month of February, he'll score on you in transition and he'll score on you in the halfcourt. All he needs to complete his scoring game is a three point shot, but even then he doesn't even need to shoot 3s in order to reach 20 points. He had a game where he scored 36 points without attempting a single FT or 3pter. He decides not to shoot three's even though he's on a team with a green light to do so, when he develops a long range shot he'll be almost unstoppable.

In addition to all the things people say about Ellis, it's also been said numerous times that he can't play the PG position. Really, I don't think anyone here in Golden State is expecting Monta to be the next Steve Nash. He's on a team that is truckloaded with ballhandlers and players who can initiate their own offense. It's not like a Kyle Korver type where a teammate needs a perfect pass from the PG just to get an open look for a shot. Ellis has scorers like Maggette and Jackson on the team, and has big men like Anthony Randolph, Brandan Wright, Andris Biedrins, Al Harrington etc. who can handle the ball.

Also, with Nellie's system you don't really need to rely on the PG to start the offense. On other teams, when a big man rebounds the ball his point guard will go up to him and say, "Here big guy, give me the ball so we can bring the ball upcourt safely without guys like you turning it over". Instead, on the Warriors, when their big man rebounds they already have teammates running downcourt waiting for the outlet pass for an easy bucket.

Even the big man can run the break. All of the Warriors big men can handle the ball, when they get a rebound they can start running downcourt to start the break. Guys like Harrington, Wright, Randolph etc. can even run the whole court with the ball after the rebound it causes the other team to not be able to get their defense set at once. So yeah, it's not like we need Monta to have the ball in his hands all the time to start the offense. Everyone on the team is capable of scoring. Monta will also have more help at playmaking than Baron did; Baron had CJ Watson as back up point guard. Now we got Marcus Williams and Marco Belinelli to back up Monta, CJ watson is still here too in case Nellie plays Marco at the 2.

The insomnia continues. making long random posts. its 5am and im still not sleepy. =[

[St.Nick]

Thanks for all that info, but lets not make this a huge Monta Ellis thread. If you wan't to talk about why he will improve next year or not, then thats what the thread is for. Its going to go off the rails if there are a lot of posts like this.

[TheRevTy]

My money is on Mickeal Pietrus. New town, new team, new coach.

[St.Nick]

My money is on Mickeal Pietrus. New town, new team, new coach.

Now all he needs is a new brain

[cool007]

Luol Deng:

I believe his stats will be: 37mpg 22ppg 7.3rpg 2.5apg 1spg 48%fg 78%ft