deron williams, top 10, top 20 or neither?

[KalElen]

i'm starting to sort my draft sheet (and i know, i should have finished that by now, but get off my back) and the way i see it, this year top 6 is where you want your pick to be. it's very likely that most people will agree on who top 6 guys are and after that group there is large murky area. among many candidates to go 7th, deron williams is especially interesting guy. he is not top 10 based on numbers alone, but he is only player with steady situation and no health issues among next 20 players. there will be leagues where he goes in top 10 and there will be those where he doesn't go in top 20. too many potential top 20 players have serious question marks coming into the season:

-kidd seems to be falling fast, age finally caught up with him?
-gasol played good in la so far, but how will bynum's return affect his stats?
-bosh, will jon help him or not?
-yao, is he too injury prone or not?
-baron, is he too injury prone or not?
-camby, is he too injury prone or not?
-nash has a new coach with more defensive style and his back problems have been mentioned too mnay times to make you feel good about him; he has yet to start missing games, but will the age catch up with him this season?
-j-smoove just got payed, will he suffer from post-contract-year syndrome?
-lewis overall had a good quiet season, but was incosistent at times and was outplayed by hedo so how will that affect his role with the team?
-arenas, is he healthy?
-wade, is he healthy?
-brand, is he healthy?
-billups will he continue to lose minutes to stucky as pistons rest him for post-season?
-pearce, will he lose minutes due to too many blowouts and will he be healthy?
-iverson, will his age and play style catch up with him?
-duncan, will his numbers continue to drop?
-butler, can he stay healthy for an entire season?
-matrix, is he gonna be back to suns form or is he gonna continue to deteriorate with the heat?
-granger is he good enough to enter top 20?
-gay is he good enough to enter top 20?
-calderon, will he be able to sustain numbers he posted while ford was out for the entire season?

how do you answer some of these questions and what do you think about deron? many people would like him to be cp3 2.0 but he is clearly not on that level yet and might never be. will he be overrated this year, or is he only safe choice outside of top 6?

[hamncheese]

Deron Williams - Top 10 is still a reach. I guess what separates him from the elite in fantasy is he the one dominant category (assists) and one good category (points), but needs to elevate one more aspect of his game. TO's take down is value a bit even though it's expected. Top 20 is right for Williams.

Jason Kidd - Yes, age is catching up to him. Name the last player who was a top 40 player at the age of 35. Might have been Karl Malone but you'll need to look in the archives for that.

Chris Bosh - Still a solid mid-2nd round pick. I don't think O'Neal's presence will affect his value.

Yao Ming - Until proven otherwise, he's injury prone. 3 straight seasons of fewer than 60 games each will put that label on you. Obviously a first round talent, but you won't be taking him there.

Baron Davis - I don't think the question is whether he's injury prone or not. It's apparent his issue is conditioning and when he was in shape last year, he was good. The question is now that he's got a long-term deal and is in L.A., will he keep up his conditioning? I'm saying no and I wonder how well he will fit with Coach Dunleavy. Has 1st round talent, but is a 2nd rounder due to the aforementioned reasons.

Steve Nash - Age will start catching up to him and Phoenix understands this. Talk has him limited to 70 games this season even if healthy to give him rest.

Josh Smith - Seems like a candidate for pot-contract-year syndrome as he has had questionable attitude issues. He gets overrated anyway because of his blocks and athleticism. Value-wise, I don't think he gets much better than last season.

Rashard Lewis - I think he repeats with an overall quiet good season.

Gilbert Arenas, Dwyane Wade, Elton Brand - We've only seen Wade play so far and he's looking good. I probably rank all three still as 1st rounders with Arenas at the end.

Chauncey Billups - He averaged 30 mpg in the 2nd half when Stuckey was healthy so expect that to continue. A good part Billups' value does come from his efficiency so that'll remain but expect a drop from previous seasons.

Paul Pierce - I expect a repeat of last season.

Allen Iverson - I don't know what to expect. He keeps himself in great shape but Denver is a bit of a meass in my opinion. I think they want to make it clearly Anthony's team and it wouldn't surprise me if Iverson gets traded. I think his numbers will slip a little bit.

Tim Duncan - I expect him to be around where he was last year, but you wonder what San Antonio will do with a clearly aging team.

Caron Butler - I don't think you can expect Butler to go 82 games, but around 70 is reasonable given the last couple of seasons. His broken hand was a freak injury though.

Shawn Marion - He will no longer be what he was with Phoenix but he'll still be very good. I'm more perplexed by his drop in ft% last season.

Danny Granger - Pacers want to extend but if he isn't extended, then it's a contract year. He's the best player on that team. He's good enough to enter top 20 based on last year's performance

Rudy Gay - Hasn't shown that he's good enough yet to enter top 20, but he could do it.

Jose Calderon - I believe he will be able to sustain the numbers he posted while Ford was out.

[Stanford]

For roto, I'd honestly rather have Calderon than Deron. I wouldn't draft Deron in the first round in any format, but I would take him in the second round of a H2H draft.

[Young_Star11]

Deron Williams shouldn't be a top-10 player; I think around about 20 is where he should go (give or take a few spots).

Jason Kidd's not a top-20 player anymore, but will give very good value should he remain relatively healthy. Triple-double, with steals, threes, and softening percentage pains.

Pau Gasol will be efficient and should get an easy ride with Bynum. Was scoring at a very high clip which helps. Take him in the mid-late teens.

Chris Bosh is a matter of staying healthy. JO will rub off on him in a good way. Expect a top-15'ish season.

Yao is almost too unreliable at this stage. If healthy, he trumps Gasol, CB4 fairly comfortably, but those foot injuries. As a result, he'll go around 15.

Baron Davis played a healthy season last season and he's a beast when he plays. Top 15 based on potential at this stage of his career.

Marcus Camby is one to leave late in the top 20. Per game, he's top-10, but injury issues, old age, new team, unaccustomed position play a part.

I've gone completely cold on Steve Nash. He's 34 and hasn't won. I'd consider him from about pick 18 onwards, but not beforehand, and most definitely not in round one.

Josh Smith is still overrated for mine. I think he deserves top-20 ranking just for the fact that the sky is still the limit for him. But don't take him first-round either, unless it's a deep league.

Rashard Lewis will be alright. Top 20 is kinda pushing it, as he won't score 22 a night again. 25'ish for me.

Gilbert Arenas - I see somewhere around #10 for him. Hopefully he is healthy. Expect 26/3/6/2

Dwyane Wade looks healthy, and people are saying this could be his renaissance. Top 10 for sure, but don't be surprised to see some not have the same optimism.

Elton Brand should be good to go hopefully. Philly is a nice situation for him. Expecting 19/9/2.5/2

Chauncey Billups shouldn't be drafted top-20. You can get great value out of him at about 30. But I do agree, for the most part, he should have a top-20esque season. Stuckey will eat into his minutes, but Billups will still get his.

Paul Pierce is a nice pick. Blowouts as you said will mean he will see some less-friendly nights, but he's fine for top-20 periphery IMO.

Allen Iverson should go from higher end of 25. He had his best fantasy season last season and I expect him to do perhaps more this season.

Tim Duncan increased in FT% last season and 19/10/3/2 is pretty hard to overlook. Slightly inferior to Brand, but not my much.

Caron Butler was a top-10 player last season, but injuries plagued him, and there was no Arenas. Even with Agent Zero back, Caron's too good not to get his. Top-15 for sure if he stays healthy.

Shawn Marion could yet be traded again. If he stays in Miami, he might start at SF. Rebounding should fall under 10, but he should still be a respectable 16/9/2/2/1.5, good enough for top-8 IMO.

Danny Granger is good enough to enter top 20, but Rudy Gay is not at that level. Gay struggled at the end of last season as the #1 option, and now he's lost a dependable player in Mike Miller for OJ Mayo, who will get there in time and be a star, but will take his lumps early. Take him after pick 30 or even at 35'ish. Granger has some more help, which is why I think he can sustain it.

Jose Calderon shouldn't be taken top-20, but has top-30 value for sure. Great roto PG, I don't think his numbers will improve that much, adding JO will see more ball go his way.

I think that there are five sure fires, perhaps only four, or even three. CP3, Kobe and Bron. Amare should be there too, having played consecutive 82-gamers. Dirk's consistent, but is a better roto player.
After that, KG will have his issues, Marion, Wade. After pick 8, things get interesting.