2008 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

[Schad]

Cecil just threw seven no-hit innings in his fifth AAA start, marking the second consecutive outing that he's gotten through seven scoreless. Jeremy De Jong blew the no-no with one out in the eighth, but it was probably the right decision to lift him with 86 pitches thrown.

[whiterasta80]

It is VERY reassuring to me to know that Cecil did not come out for the 8th because of the pitch count. No need to overwork our top pitching prospect (see McGowan, Dustin or Rosario, Francisco etc...)

[Michael Bradley]

Ricky Romero is showing some decent results in AAA. He threw 7 shutout innings last night for Syracuse. On the season (in AAA) he's thrown 35.2 innings with 33 strike outs, a 2:1 GB to FB ratio, and has only allowed 3 dingers so far (12 in 157 total minor league innings this year). Of course he's also walked 18 (4.6 per 9), but at age 23, he's at least showing some signs of being a future MLB'er. With Burnett leaving, the Jays desperately need Romero and Cecil to contribute next season. Add Mills into the mix (with Purcey already up) and the Jays are looking decent with LHP. That's not even factoring that half their MLB bullpen is LH (Ryan, Downs, Carlson, Tallet...with Davis Romero possibly having a future there). If nothing else, they are good assets either to use or to trade.

On another note, Cooper has slowed down in A+ (.280/.349/.400), granted he's only had 75 at bats. He still projects as a player who will rise quickly though. If he finishes out the season strong, I'd start him in AA next season. There's no rush, but the quicker the Jays can add some cost effective power lefties into their lineup (Snider/Cooper...with Lind already up), the better off they are going to be.

[torontoaces04]

Ricky Romero is showing some decent results in AAA. He threw 7 shutout innings last night for Syracuse. On the season (in AAA) he's thrown 35.2 innings with 33 strike outs, a 2:1 GB to FB ratio, and has only allowed 3 dingers so far (12 in 157 total minor league innings this year). Of course he's also walked 18 (4.6 per 9), but at age 23, he's at least showing some signs of being a future MLB'er. With Burnett leaving, the Jays desperately need Romero and Cecil to contribute next season. Add Mills into the mix (with Purcey already up) and the Jays are looking decent with LHP. That's not even factoring that half their MLB bullpen is LH (Ryan, Downs, Carlson, Tallet...with Davis Romero possibly having a future there). If nothing else, they are good assets either to use or to trade.

On another note, Cooper has slowed down in A+ (.280/.349/.400), granted he's only had 75 at bats. He still projects as a player who will rise quickly though. If he finishes out the season strong, I'd start him in AA next season. There's no rush, but the quicker the Jays can add some cost effective power lefties into their lineup (Snider/Cooper...with Lind already up), the better off they are going to be.

thanks for the update. i'm happy with how our minor league system is shaping up, unlike a few years ago when i felt like the poor kid who goes to the cupboards each time to realize they are still empty.

[Schad]

Ricky Romero is showing some decent results in AAA. He threw 7 shutout innings last night for Syracuse. On the season (in AAA) he's thrown 35.2 innings with 33 strike outs, a 2:1 GB to FB ratio, and has only allowed 3 dingers so far (12 in 157 total minor league innings this year). Of course he's also walked 18 (4.6 per 9), but at age 23, he's at least showing some signs of being a future MLB'er. With Burnett leaving, the Jays desperately need Romero and Cecil to contribute next season. Add Mills into the mix (with Purcey already up) and the Jays are looking decent with LHP. That's not even factoring that half their MLB bullpen is LH (Ryan, Downs, Carlson, Tallet...with Davis Romero possibly having a future there). If nothing else, they are good assets either to use or to trade.

On another note, Cooper has slowed down in A+ (.280/.349/.400), granted he's only had 75 at bats. He still projects as a player who will rise quickly though. If he finishes out the season strong, I'd start him in AA next season. There's no rush, but the quicker the Jays can add some cost effective power lefties into their lineup (Snider/Cooper...with Lind already up), the better off they are going to be.

Agreed on all counts. Few people slag Ricky Romero as consistently as I do, but the early returns are extremely promising; his strikeouts are up, and the superior AAA defense might exert some downward pressure on his opp BA given the number of grounders he induces. Still not sure whether he'll ever be a major league contributor (his tendency to over-pitch combined with his walk rate could lead to a long period of growing pains), but he's showing that it was probably too soon to write him off.

Cooper's slowdown isn't much of a concern; in fact, after a rough start he's starting to hit again, posting .333/.400/.444 splits over his last 10 games. The only worry I have is with his power; the raw stuff is definitely there, but he might need a longer incubation period if he doesn't up his HR totals next year.

[NH_soxfan14]

answer to that question about kyle phillips. He has been the backup 1B/C all year at NH. Now his power numbers might be a little tough to determine if its a fluke or not, its 306 FT. down the line at our ball park. Our club house manager hit a home run when we were able to hit. But the thing that has impressed me about kyle is his 300 AVG. He is slow as f**k. He is a FA at the end of the year, same as david smith, it should be interesting what they do with those two.

[mouse]

Anyone know why Campbell's production dropped off so much in the last month?

[Schad]

Anyone know why Campbell's production dropped off so much in the last month?

Part of it was injury (he got hurt twice about a month ago), part is likely fatigue, and a large part is that he was out-hitting reality for quite some time. His batting average/balls in play was ridiculous as of late-July...utterly unsustainable, really.

Still, his overall numbers were great; next year is the big test in AAA, which'll go some way to determining whether he's Aaron Hill with patience or just a really good back-up.

[Schad]

Now that all of the kids are done, it's time for a massive end-of-season minor league wrap-up. Hitters first, pitchers to follow.

Travis Snider, OF, 20:

A+ .279/.333/.557, 61 ABs.
AA .262/.357/.461, 362 ABs.
AAA .344/.386/.516, 64 ABs.
Overall - .275/.358/.480, 487 ABs.

After struggling with a shoulder injury early in his stint in AA, Snider turned it on...his K rate dropped noticeably, his power returned, and he lived up to his billing as the top prospect in the system (and one of the best in baseball). He should begin 2009 in AAA, barring an incredible finish to this year with the big club.

Brian Jeroloman, C, 23:

AA .270/.396/.416, 226 ABs.
AAA .200/.302/.227, 75 ABs.
Overall - .252/.374/.369, 301 ABs.

The walk machine fell flat on his face in Syracuse, but all is not lost. Jeroloman should start next season in AAA, and could see some platoon time with the Jays if the club lets Arencibia develop further.

Russ Adams, MI/OF, 27:

AAA .259/.341/.417, 429 ABs.

His status as a prospect has long since faded, but Adams could have some value as a National League bench player. I believe he's Rule-5 eligible this off-season...look for a team to take a flier on his bat if that's the case.

Buck Coats, OF, 25:

AAA .286/.342/.407, 447 ABs.

Coats does just enough of everything to be a competent AAAA outfielder, but little more. Exactly what you'd expect from a waiver wire pickup.

Scott Campbell, 2B, 23:

AA .302/.398/.427, 417 ABs.

Tailed off at the end of the season, but a great campaign nonetheless. Should begin in AAA (we might actually have a competent AAA team for once!), where his high-contact approach will be tested by better pitching and better defense.

Brian Dopirak, 24, 1B:

A+ .308/.382/.577
AA .287/.297/.425
Overall .304/.368/.550

Dopirak likely needed to set the world on fire in New Hampshire to guarantee a spot in the organization come April. He wasn't bad, but probably not good enough to salvage his status as a legit power prospect.

J.P. Arencibia, 22, C:

A+ .315/.344/.560, 248 ABs.
AA .282/.302/.496, 262 ABs.
Overall - .298/.322/.527, 510 ABs.

The power is a given...the patience not so much. He's on his way to the Arizona Fall League with an edict to take pitches, so don't be surprised if his numbers are far below what you'd expect. Should begin in AAA as well, with a mid-season call-up a distinct possibility.

Ryan Patterson, 25, OF:

AA .248/.284/.435, 460 ABs.

Patterson's last hurrah as a prospect came and went with a whimper. He's likely organizational fodder now, though he might well start in AAA (assuming he's back) as the club takes one last shot at revitalizing his career.

David Cooper, 21, 1B:

A- .341/.411/.553, 85 ABs.
A .354/.415/.521, 96 ABs.
A+ .304/.373/.435, 92 ABs.
Overall - .333/.399/.502, 273 ABs.

Cooper is a doubles machine...extrapolating from his production to a full 600 AB season and he'd hit 64 of the things (no major leaguer has hit 60 since 1936, for the sake of comparison), and with a promotion to New Hampshire and the short porch in right field likely, a few more of those hard liners might find the seats next year. If they start flying out in 2009, Cooper will officially find himself on the fast track. Until then his stock is difficult to gauge, but he has definitely out-performed Ike Davis (.256/.326/.326, no HRs in short-season), the guy selected immediately after him.

Brad Emaus, 22, 2B:

A+ .302/.380/.463, 473 ABs.

After a lackluster 2007 campaign in short-season, Emaus was bumped to Dunedin largely because the infield spots in Lansing were spoken for. It seems to have worked; he has a BB:K rate over 1, good power and decent speed. Also interesting are his platoon splits; a righty, Emaus showed considerably more power against RHP, which bodes well as his game develops. He'll start in AA next year, and could be next year's Scott Campbell Memorial Semi-Prospect Who Does Everything Reasonably Well But is Impossible To Project.

Moises Sierra, 19, OF:

A .246/.297/.364, 451 ABs.

Sierra has an absolutely incredible arm, is quite strong for a teenager, and he has done enough to continue climbing the ladder. His numbers weren't great (especially his plate discipline), but Sierra is the type of hit-or-miss prospect who bears watching even if he struggles next year...it might take a few years, but the talent is there.

Johermyn Chavez, 19, OF:

A .211/.272/.323, 402 ABs.

Chavez has been the biggest disappointment in the system, without a doubt. He lit up the Gulf Coast last year, instantly becoming a top-10 prospect in the organization, but hasn't looked at all comfortable in Lansing. Still, he has a big frame and many years to go...his play probably merits a repeat of low-A to begin 2009, but the powers that be have made a habit of pushing players regardless, so Dunedin isn't out of the question.

Kevin Ahrens, 19, 3B:

A .259/.329/.367, 460 ABs.

The numbers are somewhat underwhelming, but not out of line with what you'd expect here; Ahrens is definitely a project, but as a switch-hitter and as a third baseman. Also, his .696 OPS is a shade above the Midwest League average, so a promotion to Dunedin is practically a given.

Justin Jackson, 19, SS:

A .238/.340/.368, 454 ABs.

Yeah, the batting average is ugly. And the strikeouts are gruesome. However, his BA/OBP split and those 130 points of isolated power are drool-worthy numbers from a raw teenager better known for his play at shortstop. Jackson has all of the tools to be a star, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get an honorable mention for BA's top-100.

John Tolisano, 19, 2B:

A .229/.315/.354, 432 ABs.

Like many of the Lansing kids, Tolisano hit the wall, hitting under .200 in both July and August. He has earned a promotion, though, and has some pretty good pop, which might owe to the fact that he has the most developed body of any of the young infielders.

Eric Eiland, 20, OF:

A .233/.334/.305, 249 ABs.

Eiland is definitely a project, with ample speed and good on-base skills. His power is non-existent, though, and in today's game a slap-hitting center fielder with blazing speed better be damned good at what he can do to make it. There are many years to come, though, and Eiland will be the starting CF for Dunedin without a doubt...whether he keeps pace with the others is questionable.

Adam Amar, 22, 1B:

A- .302/.359/.476, 252 ABs.

The biggest surprise of the low minors, the undrafted 1B came out of the gates flying before limping to the finish line (.189/.268/.243 in his final 41 plate appearances). Amar could round out the infield in Dunedin if the Jays are feeling frisky...still far too early to classify him as a legit prospect, but he's a feel-good story with a great frame. But playing 1B, he'll have to mash to establish a future.

Mark Sobolewski, 21, 3B:

A- .256/.283/.316, 133 ABs.

A steal in the fourth round, Sobolewski was a college sophomore before being drafted. His future is TBD...many players have struggled in their experience with wood bats beyond Cape Cod, and that's no reason to be down on his potential.

Balbino Fuenmayor, 19, 3B:

Rookie .307/.360/.456, 179 ABs.

After an atrocious 2007 debut in the pro ranks, Fuenmayor justified (for the moment) the cash the Jays organization threw at him as a 16 year old. His excellent isolated power indicates his upside, and Fuenmayor should be the focus of attention in Lansing next year.

Tyler Pastornicky, 18, SS:

Rookie .263/.349/.356, 160 ABs.

Pastornicky was easily the second best hitter of the 2008 crop behind Cooper, which came as a bit of a surprise. 27 steals (at 84.4%) in 50 games is silly, and he showed enough patience, power and ability to make contact to show promise as an all-around hitter.

Kenneth Wilson, 18, OF:

Rookie .210/.319/.272, 162 ABs.

Wilson was drafted as a raw talent, and a raw talent he has proved to be. Tonnes of strikeouts against little power was the story of his first stint in pro ball, but he's a baby, and such is to be expected. All reports are that he has a great work ethic, so it wouldn't be at all surprising to see him improve by leaps and bounds in 2009.

Markus Brisker, 18, OF:

Rookie .306/.370/.343, 108 ABs.

Gaudy numbers on the front end, but Brisker is some time away from having any power...even doubles power. Then again, he turned 18 with a couple weeks remaining in the season.

Antonio Jimenez, 18, C:

Rookie .191/.255/.234, 47 ABs.

Another possible steal in the 9th round, Jimenez fell due to injury concerns. 47 at-bats is a minuscule sample size, but Jimenez will probably cut his teeth in instructional ball next year before joining a short-season club.


Feel free to add all of the people I missed.

[evilRyu]

wow schad, that was a very good post.. i've never heard of most of the players you listed, but it's very nice to have an idea of the prospects the Jays have in their system, so thanks for the writeup.. I'm sure i'll use that post as reference some time in the future.

And wow @ Russ Adams.. 27 years of age already.. I kinda feel bad for the guy, and hope he gets picked up thru the rule 5 draft just so he gets another shot..

[Raps_Swingman]

Add Joel Collins to the list. Finished with probably the best numbers on the Auburn team, top to bottom. Hes also a Canadian kid.
Catcher, 22

.326 / .429 / .525 / 141 abs

[Sashobe]

The team will be in either Las Vegas or New Orleans next season, where do you guys want it to be.

[dennistokyo]

Reno.

[Bam-Bam Bigelow]

Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 Prospects for 2009, John Sickels

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/12/ ... s-top-20-p

nothing too surprising, but I thought I'd post it... does anyone know the eta for cooper or j.p.?