How to get a max contract free agent in 2010

[GreenMachine]

DA is great... but he doesn't have a crystal ball.

who knows what will happen in 2010? Who knows what will happen next week?

What DA does know is that good young guys, who are taught well and are on rookie scale will ALWAYS be in demand.

Look at our roster - EIGHT GUYS he drafted (with bad picks) plus Miles and POB (both low risk, high reward). That is amazing.

DA will wait around, consolidate our talent and 'chips' and cap flexibility... and one day, a year or two from now... the right opportunity will present itself and he will pull off another blockbuster...

And along the way - he has the chips to plug holes as needed.

It is really quite masterfull what he has done.

[LarryLegend]

I agree with Bill's contention that Wade is the most likely of targets, and I doubt he will be the only one of that '03 Crew (Lebron, Melo, Bosh, etc) to opt out. Perhaps Lebron will stay or Bosh, but 2 or 3 will take the plunge.

The biggest guess in all of this is what Pierce and Ray will be looking for in '10 and '11. While Ray was up and down with his production (which should be attributed to many factors including being 3rd in the pecking order), it did not appear that he was past his prime on the whole. Pierce, at times, was worthy of MVP consideration as well. This isn't to say both are deserving of max raises on their current contracts, but it would be difficult to see a 50% cut in their salaries... then again winning can make one do some silly things.

[ParticleMan]

Ainge has never been interested in big-name FAs. It's too risky, and you always overpay. There's no reason not to use the same formula as before: Collect good trading chips via the draft, a quality player as a trade centerpiece, and expiring contracts. Big-name players come available every year, for one reason or another. You just have to be patient, sit with the right chips, and wait until the right one comes along.

Boston may be a championship destination, but it's cold with high taxes and relatively low endorsement potential (compared to LA/NYC). You can't count on landing the big fish just because you have the capspace.

[billfromBoston]

DA is great... but he doesn't have a crystal ball.

who knows what will happen in 2010? Who knows what will happen next week?

What DA does know is that good young guys, who are taught well and are on rookie scale will ALWAYS be in demand.

Look at our roster - EIGHT GUYS he drafted (with bad picks) plus Miles and POB (both low risk, high reward). That is amazing.

DA will wait around, consolidate our talent and 'chips' and cap flexibility... and one day, a year or two from now... the right opportunity will present itself and he will pull off another blockbuster...

And along the way - he has the chips to plug holes as needed.

It is really quite masterfull what he has done.

...I keep seeing this "magical" and "crystal ball" stuff come up everywhere...its really not that difficult to grasp:

1. Players have contracts that last certain amount of years.
2. Players make set amounts of money on those contracts
3. Their is a set amount of years and raises allowed in a contract
4. Historically age and production factor heavily into projected salary
5. Looking at team rosters will tell you when certain player's contracts will expire
6. Looking at certain team situations will give you hypotheses on how a team may build in the future
7. Having daily discussions with other teams helps to establish the value of your players as well as theirs
8. Keeping notes on these conversations, creating spreadsheets on each years potential free agents, and continuing to update as you go allows for you to create "target lists" of players.
9. Managing your team's salary cap and making sure the players you have on your roster provide value based on their production/earnings ratio gives you flexibility
10. Having a successful team gives you clout in the marketplace because become a desirable location to play and the perceived value of your players increases because of that success.

This isn't rocket science, its business management for the business of basketball. Fans of teams look at every move in isolation and are constantly surprised by what comes next, well run teams with competent leadership are not...bad teams are run by guys like Isiah Thomas or Michael Jordan who, like fans, make isolated moves based on talent and not on asset management and long-term project planning...these teams most often fail because of it.

This is business, this is how it works...

[sully00]

Here is the element missing from the conversation. I think that Pierce has already agreed to an extension that will likely be announced during training camp, (the fact that he has said he will be in Boston for 5 more years is more than a little hint and it only makes sense). It will match KG's erasing his 21 million option and in its place a 3 year extension that has him under contract for 5 years, His cap number should go from 21 to 16 mil.

That should result in Pierce, KG, and Perk under contract and Rondo a restircted FA with a cap hold around 6 mil, Boston should be able to open up between 11-12 mil for FA. That will be relatively close to a max deal for a player coming off of a rookie deal which is one option or a double digit salary to a player who is over 30 and is looking for a home.

Anyway I don't think that Boston will look to replace Ray with Lebron or Kobe but a talent step below that Kevin Martin perhaps, or Michael Redd.

[elrod enchilada]

Sully--

Due to the CBA, I do not believe the Cs and Pierce can negotiate or renegotiate before 2010.

Thanks to all for the excellent feedback.

elrod

[Dave_From_NB]

Sully--

Due to the CBA, I do not believe the Cs and Pierce can negotiate or renegotiate before 2010.

Thanks to all for the excellent feedback.

elrod

I'm not sure about that.

Pierces previous extension was signed in July 2006 when he had a guaranteed year plus a player option year left. The 3 year extension took the contract to a total of 5 years, indicated to be the longest possible.

This is a reference to that:
http://www.boston.com/sports/basketball ... nd_pierce/