semi-sentient wrote:First, I pretty much stated that LeBron is the biggest mismatch that the Cavs have. I know he's going to get his. We all do. I don't really feel it's necessary to go much into because it's self-explanatory. Yes, LeBron is going to have success, but that by itself isn't going to be enough to beat the Lakers.
Yeah, I agree, not really necessary to discuss LeBron James when discussing the Cleveland Cavaliers. Let's focus on the important players like Zydrunas Ilgauskus.
semi-sentient wrote:Second, you missed the point regarding Odom. He doesn't have to be playing "above his head" to have success, he simply needs to do what he's expected to do. While Odom does put up around his averages against the Cavs, he did not have the same amount of success against the Celtics. In the regular season prior to the Lakers obtaining Pau Gasol, he was completely ineffective against them. Seeing how much of an improvement he had in the Finals, it's quite obvious that he's more effective when someone else takes the focus away from him as a 2nd option.
Don't get carried away here. Lamar's final statline looks ok, but he was a nonfactor in the NBA Finals. Not one player on the entire LA Lakers team had a good series. LA fanboy Mathew Berry admits this, as do most fans.
semi-sentient wrote:What this means for the Cavs is that because Odom plays well off of Gasol, they won't be able to double-team nearly as much, which means that Gasol is going to be left in a one-on-one situation against Igs, which is clearly a matchup that favors the Lakers. If they do decide to double, then this is where Odom has had "great success" against other teams. I see no reason why he wouldn't have similar success against the Cavs.
I disagree strongly here. You keep insisting that Ilgauskus is depended on to defend Gasol one on one. Myself and others keep pointing out to you that the Cavs have many big men, such as Wallace, Ilgauskus, Smith, and Varejo that they can try on Gasol. Ilgauskus is not their defensive stopper, he is in there for offense. The Cavs played straight up on KG. I doubt the Cavs are going to have to rework their entire strategy to contain Pau Gasol, who in spite of your altered statistical presentation has no history of consistently putting up big scoring numbers, giving the Cavs little reason to focus their defense on stopping Gasol. There is one LA Laker than can beat you, and he doesn't look like big bird or have a beard made of pubic hair. And yes, I am ten years old.
This would leave Lamar Odom in single coverage, against good defensive players, against a team that plays good team defense. So, yeah, maybe he'll shoot 66% over the course of an entire playoff series like he did in two games during the regular season. Do you even really believe that is a possibility for Lamar Odom?
semi-sentient wrote:Whatever the case, Odom and Gasol are going to play better against the Cavs than they did against the Celtics, and until you provide some good reasons (other than you clearly hating the Lakers) why they wouldn't there's no point in stating anything to the contrary.
Saying that Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol, or any of the Lakers would do better against the Cavs than the Celtics is not only a true statement, but it a laughable defense on your part. You mean, the Lakers won't average 92ppg, lose by an average of 8ppg, and get smashed by 39 in a game with the world championship on the line? That's like saying John Starks would shoot better than 2-18 if he could play that game 7 over again. Do you have any arguments better than Gasol and Odom would do better than being utterly embarrassed, out muscled, and outplayed?
And furthermore, I don't hate the Lakers. I have defended Kobe here and on other forums for years and I can provide links. He is one of my favorite players. Robert Horry is probably my favorite player and most of his legend was with the LA Lakers. But yeah, I don't see the point in arguing that Gasol and Odom would do better than being completely outplayed in all facets of the game.
Are you saying they wouldn't let a Leon Powe caliber player go for 21 points in 15 minutes against the Cavs? I should hope not, but that is the kind of thing you learn with experience, to not simply expect to dominate a guy like Powe and to bring 100% no matter who the opponent is. The 07-08 Lakers outside of Kobe and Fish didn't have this experience.
semi-sentient wrote:
Yes, they actually did play better. In the case of Odom, he scored 2.3 more PPG while increasing his FG% by 14. I'd say that's a nice improvement. Again, Odom has played even better next to Gasol, so am I supposed to believe that he would do worse if the Lakers faced the Cavs in the Finals? There is no reason whatsoever to believe that.
Let me ask you, do you really believe that Lamar Odom is going to shoot 66% for a series, or do you think that he got a couple lucky rolls in your sample size, which was two games? When I said that Lamar Odom gets his averages against the Cavs, I didn't mean to the field goal percentage point and to the 10th of a point per game. Try thinking next time. I have been careful to check every stat in this thread and it's you who has been wrong about 4 times now, not me.
If you're claiming that Lamar Odom scoring a whole 2.3ppg higher than his season averages in games against the Cavs in which he happened to shoot an unheard of 66% is a significant predictor of things to come, I got news for you: you're wrong. In a best of 7 series against a good defensive team, Lamar Odom will not average 66% from the field. If Odom's shooting stats from the two regular season games are the stats that you're projecting out to determine his success, what would you say if I told you that Jerome James averaged 29ppg and 22rpg on 100% shooting per 36 minutes last year?
Of course it's ridiculous to expect him to do that in a significant sample size. Lamar Odom was Lamar Odom against the Cavs this season. And Lamar Odom isn't very good. He is barely worth discussing. If you think the Lakers are going to win a series against the Cavs because of Lamar Odom, you just don't understand basketball very well.
semi-sentient wrote:As for Gasol, he scored 8.6 more PPG while increasing his FG% by 21.
I do thank you for going back and using the correct stats that I provided for you. No need to thank me for pointing out your error, semi-sentient. But at least we're talking about reality now and not Pau Gasol-cherry-picked-statland as we were before.
Anyways, I actually can't find any box scores from beyond last year to check your Pau Gasol stats other than the game from last year. A link would be appreciated where you got the stats from the last three Cavs/Pau matchups. However, even if I take your word for it you are still using stats from Gasol on a 22-win team where he is the only option, not sharing shots with a guy named Kobe.
Semi-sentient, let me ask you, do you really think that Pau Gasol can average 8.6ppg more than he did during the season over the course of a playoff series against the Cavs?
Your main reason for thinking that he can is because the Cavs don't have Tim Duncan or Kevin Garnett to defend him. I argue that Gasol has never stepped up and averaged 27ppg even when defended by inferior defenders playing for horrible defensive teams, and considering the Cavs are a good defensive team with good defensive players, I don't think he'd put up these amazing stats you have him penciled in for.
What happened in 04-05 against the Suns? What happened in 05-06 against Dallas? What happened this year against Denver? Or this year against Utah? Pau Gasol was Pau Gasol. He doesn't turn into Moses Malone in his prime when not facing Duncan or Garnett.
What happens when Paul Gasol plays good defensive teams, like the Spurs in 2003, or the Spurs in 07-08, or the Celtics in 07-08? He plays below average. You seem unwilling and unable to put the Cavs in the group with the Celtics and those two Spurs teams as good defensive teams. It is true, they aren't as good, but they also aren't the Suns, Mavs, or Nuggets. Utah is curiously hard to categorize because they are a decent defensive team (although not as good as Cleveland) - but have to double Bryant and are a victim of matchups with LA. It is also truthful to say that in the playoffs the Cavs peaked defensively, playing better on that end of the floor than the #1 ranked defensive team in the league during the regular season, Detroit.
semi-sentient wrote:So are you still going to roll with the "neither played above their averages" argument?
Yeah, maybe I'll concede Gasol, but I've listed numerous reasons why he wouldn't be expected to have the same success in a playoff series, chiefly among them, he is not a transcendent player and has never, not even once, played like one in a playoff series.
semi-sentient wrote:Now let me make this perfectly clear -- they do not need to reproduce those same increases against the Cavs to have success. The important thing to take out of those statistics is that they ARE capable of playing very well against the Cavs. Add that both players became even more efficient when put on the same team and I find it hard to believe that they would be as ineffective as they were against the Celtics.
If they were as ineffective as they were against the Celtics, they might not beat the Knicks in a seven game series.
semi-sentient wrote:First of all, it's you're inability to comprehend that's the issue here. I didn't say they would have "great" success, but I did imply that they would have success against the Cavs relative to how they performed against the Celtics, which is what this discussion is about.
The discussion is actually about whether or not the Lakers could beat the Cavs in a playoff series. If this is about whether or not the Los Angeles Lakers can play better than they did against the Celtics in the NBA Finals I am in the wrong thread. I agree completely. If LA played like they did against the Celtics in the finals every night they'd be considering tanking to compete with Oklahoma for ping pong balls by December.
semi-sentient wrote:Anyway, While Lamar Odom hasn't necessarily dominated the Cavs (no where did I ever say he did, but thanks for putting words in my mouth), that wasn't the point. Based on what he's done against them, which is all that we really have to go by, it stands to reason that they would not shut him down. No, he is not going to completely go off and be the Finals MVP, but he really doesn't need to. He's a 3rd option and as such, yes, I expect for him to produce what he normally would against the Cavs.
Why wouldn't he? Because you said so?
Ok. So the Lakers have Lamar Odom. Lamar Odom everybody! This is hardly worth discussing, as he is a role player with little impact. What if I said Zydrunas Ilgauskus could get his averages against the Lakers? You might agree, you might disagree, but the point is it doesn't matter. I just threw in the dominating comment because you are under the impressions he's going to waltz in and shoot 66%, which would be dominating. Not gonna happen. Ask the Clippers' fans what they think of Lamar Odom's ability to perform when he's needed most. You guys got a taste of it this year. I loved the smirk on his face after a 2nd quarter and one right before he lost focus with the rest of your inexperienced team and gave away a game that you led by 20 in the first quarter.
If anything, it stands to reason that since LA is a bad defensive team, that the Cavaliers players' stats would be inflated playing against LA. Conversely, since the Cavs are a good defensive team, it stands to reason that LA's players' stats would be less than usual.
semi-sentient wrote:It's incredibly ironic for you to point out that I was wrong a couple of times when a few quotes above I had to point out how wrong you were regarding Odom and Gasol's regular season averages against the Cavs.
Semi-sentient, it's just a message board bro. No one is going to remember this conversation 3 weeks from now. Your boss and your girlfriend aren't going to try to replace you because you posted some incorrect stats. You can admit you were wrong. In fact, don't admit anything, I'll just quote you directly.
semi-sentient wrote:Take a good look at what Gasol has done to him the last 3 times they faced each other:
Gasol:
27 PTS (11-13 FG), 6 REB, 1 AST, 1 STL, 1 BLK, 1 TO
28 PTS (12-19 FG), 7 REB, 3 AST, 0 STL, 2 BLK, 3 TO
37 PTS (12-20 FG), 11 REB, 1 AST, 1 STL, 5 BLK, 4 TO
AVERAGE PPG IN YOUR INCORRECT STATS:
30.6ppg
Gasol's actual PPG: 19.1
30.6
-19.1
-------
11.5
Now, here is where I corrected you:
Godmoney wrote:I'm getting increasingly wary of continuing this conversation with you because every time I check the stats you cite you end up being wrong. I mean come on man. First you say Lamar Odom has great success against the Cavs, then I find out he gets his season averages against them and that both games happened before he had to share the court with Gasol. Then I hear about Gasol's domination against the Cavs and when I go to check for myself I see that he dropped a quite ordinary 19 and 12 in a game in which his team scored over 120 points and he played 45 minutes - yet you actually typed out the stats for the last three times Ilgauskus and Gasol played - and curiously omitted the only time the two played each other this season. Why did you do that?
And then, here is your last post where you added the game in that you omitted in your first incorrect post on the subject until I corrected you:
semi-sentient wrote:As for Gasol, he scored 8.6 more PPG while increasing his FG% by 21.
So lets see: (27+28+37+19)/4 = 27.75ppg
27.75ppg
-19.1ppg
----------
8.6ppg difference...
So you see, you used my
correct stats in an attempt to show that I used incorrect stats. Really semi-sentient, I'm not that stupid, but there might be other people here reading this thread that aren't paying as careful attention. They might think that I'm making up stats. It's a message board man, don't make me defend my credibility. YOU omitted a game in an attempt to make Gasol's stats appear better than they really are, and then you accuse me of being wrong about Gasol's averages. Also, show me where I posted 1 incorrect stat about Lamar Odom. Grow up man, my stats have been flawless and if I made a mistake I'd graciously admit it, yours are half-truths and often just made up lies.
semi-sentient wrote:This is a nice tactic used by those who don't really have a point to make. You're harping on a few things that I was wrong about (which I admitted) and are irrelevant anyway, so either make some points or take your own advice and try using Google. Bro.
Using incorrect stats, and then accusing someone else of using incorrect stats is a nice tactic used by a troll. And really, that's what you're doing here is trolling. You're throwing around claims like declaring one team rebounds better than another when they really don't and the stats prove it, then when I call you out you try to turn the debate on me not with numbers, but with semantics.
And where did you admit why you didn't include Gasol's most recent game against Cleveland? You just acted like you never made the mistake and never even acknowledged that I corrected you.
Also make some points? I have 2 lists of numbered points in my last post. LOL. Quit trolling.
semi-sentient wrote:Godmoney wrote:So, what we have as far as actual stats:
1. Cavs swept LA 2 years in a row
2. LeBron averaged 37ppg against LA
3. Kobe shot 18-43 against CLE, and averaged 27ppg against CLE. Call me crazy, but I think if Kobe shoots 42% for a series against Cleveland he's not gonna get saved by that supporting cast he was babysitting
Fantastic. The Lakers did not have Gasol in those games. Believe it or not, that does change things a bit, unless you think it was some kind of fluke that the Lakers went on a tear after obtaining him.
Furthermore, Kobe shot 33% against the Celtics in the regular season and 41% in the Finals. Am I to believe that he couldn't increase his efficiency against the Cavs when it's well known that the Lakers offense was much better post-Gasol? I know it's shocking, but having a true 2nd option in the middle does tend to open things up on the perimeter.
Not if you can play him one on one because he isn't that good and has never in his career averaged more than 22ppg in a series so he isn't a big enough threat to really worry about, especially at the expense of Kobe Bryant.
Godmoney wrote:Inductive reasoning:
1. LA is soft inside and has trouble rebounding - Cleveland is the best rebounding team in the league
2. LA's money player is a wing - Cleveland held Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Antawn Jamison, and Caron Butler to below their usual standards in the playoffs. Held Kobe below his usual standards during the season.
3. A good defense usually beats a good offense in the playoffs
4. LA defended Paul Pierce with Vladamir Radmanovic and thought their cute offense would be enough to win the series. Pierce is good, but he's not LeBron James. In case you forgot, the strategy didn't work out too well for LA when they played the Celtics.
5. LeBron defended Pierce - why wouldn't he defend Kobe?
semi-sentient wrote:1. That's fine. I already stated that I expected the Cavs to outrebound the Lakers.
2. The Lakers aren't going to beat the Cavs by Kobe being a one man show, and Kobe is better than any of the players you mentioned. By a lot.
Oh yeah because Kobe has demonstrated that he is capable of this. You beat the Jazz because Kobe went nuts. You beat the Spurs because Kobe made his jumpers. You lost to the Celtics because Kobe couldn't get it going from the outside and Boston didn't let him inside. Yeah, Kobe is better than those guys by a lot, but they are all high scoring wings who can't do what they normally do against the Cavs.
semi-sentient wrote:3. True, but the Lakers have a great offense, not just a good offense. There is a difference. Additionally, the Celtics have/had one of the greatest defenses of our generation while the Cavs don't. I would say in general a great defense beats a great offense, but since the Cavs aren't considered a "great" defensive team that doesn't necessarily apply.
A great offense? We've really lowered the bar haven't we? I'd go with entertaining offense. Fun offense. Pretty offense. Arguably as good as the recent Suns' teams offenses. Great? This great offense averaged 92ppg in the finals and not one player on the team could do a thing about it. You think Stevie Nash ever went out like that? Even against the Spurs? And remember, those Spurs teams had more impressive OPPG than the 07-08 Celts did. Celtics were amazing defensively, but you might run into some opposition claiming they are the one of the greatest defenses of our generation.
semi-sentient wrote:4. I like how you use "cute" in this sentence. Clearly you don't have any agenda or bias. What you fail to point out here is that the Celtics have more than just Pierce on the perimeter. They also have Allen to deal with. The Cavs don't have anything that compares. LeBron would get his, as we all know, but that's about it as far as perimeter threats go.
Fun, fluffly, cuddlly, entertaining. A nice team to watch while drinking a couple beers on a saturday night, not a team you worry about if you have a team built for playoff basketball, like the recent Suns teams. And yeah, the Cavs have shooters. They wouldn't forget how to shoot.
semi-sentient wrote:5. He likely would guard Kobe during certain stretches, but based on past experience he has never guarded him from start to finish.
playoffs.. PLAYOFFS?!?! We're just trying to win a game here and you wanna talk about PLAYOFFS!!!?
Things are different in the playoffs. Rotations shorten, intensity heightens, teams get more physical with each other, tempers and emotions flare... Oh yeah and teams don't let the other teams best player do whatever he wants to inferior defenders. LeBron James is a leader. Trust me, if Paul Pierce is demanding to guard Bryant LeBron is too. Plus LeBron guarded Paul. No reason for you to think the Kobe would be free to run wild on Wally World. In fact, Wally/Radman are made for each other. It's so painfully obvious to see how this would play out. Why are you ignoring the obvious? Because Phil was dumb enough to stick Radman on Pierce you think other teams, teams that emphasize defense, make the same foolish decisions?
semi-sentient wrote:Right, they'd have him frustrated. With who, exactly?
I dunno, maybe, all the physical big men they have and the swarming team defense they employ?
semi-sentient wrote:In the games where Gasol had success against the Cavs, he averaged ~8 more MPG than Igs. Where was all that frustration then?
Where was the frustration then? Probably in Pau Gasol's psyche, knowing he hasn't beaten Zydrunas Ilgauskus and the Cavs since 2003-2004 in a single game. On a crappy team, someone has to score. It's the Lionell Simmons rule. And yes, assuming those stats from the three games you originally cited were from the Grizzlies in the past two seasons, who won a combined 44 games - yes - they were a crappy team. Knowing you though, I'd rather see a link before I just take your word for it.
semi-sentient wrote:Really, the Lakers don't have experience or "star players"?
The Cavs are the one team with a star than shines brighter than Bryant's. Experience? You must be joking right bro? That team was green.
semi-sentient wrote:Vaggyitch? That's cute. What are you, 10?
Yep, ten years old. How did you know? That was quite the burn. Do you write your own material? Ever considered taking your comedy act on tour? You could get a lot of laughs and make a lot of money with jokes like that!
semi-sentient wrote:I'm done with you.
Really? I was having such a good time getting trolled with cherry-picked stats, false accusations on the accuracy of my stats, and personal attacks. I'd hate to see it end. Good luck in 08-09.
P.S. Never shoulda let Horry go. Now you're cursed!