Kendrick Perkins

[Man_Up]

I'm not a fan of Perk's, but I must admit he's just a great fit for KG.

He's the big physcial presence down low that KG isn't. He just gives this team the balance it needs offensively and defensively, although he could do better offensively. Perk being around allows KG to wander around on defense because he knows Perk can body up just about anyone, and can cover the guys who are too big for KG like Duncan, Yao, and Howard. Offensively he doesn't demand anything he just stays downlow and finsihes off easy passes and rebounds, while KG is drifting around.

In my opinion, from an overall talent perspective Perk is a very good back up. Paired with KG he is a starter. He was basically tailor made to play onlongside KG. KG is a finesse to big man Perk is a physical big man paired together they eliminate each others weaknesses.

[MoBSTa]

honest, while Perkins may not be your 20/10 center, with his FG% and his shots per game that tells me with more shots he could very well become a 16/10 guy if not a 2010.

Perkins on defense is as good as they come in the NBA right now. He don't back down and last season he showed that he can even defend the baseline fade away.

As good as KG's game is, without a man like Perkins to defend we could end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard at the end of big games.

Anyone that don't know what the value of Perkins is, don't know the game of Basketball and deserves to be a fan of the Golden State Warriors.

[JMillott]

The impact of having a defender at any position is under-valued by and large by the majority of NBA fans. But the most valueable defensive piece is in the post/paint because that is where the highest percentage offense comes from and its not just the baskets that he actually defends but because he is also an enforcer many players don't even try and get to the rim against him in the first place.

As for his offense people need to remember that we are talking about a 23 year old that showed marked improvement last year as well. Perkins is a worker and I fully believe the improvement will continue to the point where he can become a valued part of our offensive attack in years to come.

If a Ben Wallace was able to get his production up to the 9-10 PPG level and be an invalueable member of one of the best teams of this era for the Pistons I think Perkins is more then capable of getting up to the 12-13 PPG range on fewer touches then it took Ben Wallace to get his 9-10 PPG.

He is also quite capable with his form at the line of getting himself into the 70-75% range from the stripe making the hack a Perk defensive tactic unavailible against this team.

If i'm correct and he can make himself into a 12 PPG, 10 RPG, 2.5 BPG player per 36 minutes played then we will have one of the best centers in the NBA in the coming years instead of just one of the best defensive bigs which he is right now.

Its about to become even more valueable to have a defensive enforcer at center as the next golden age of center prospects have entered the scene with Greg Oden, Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum, Al Jefferson and Yao Ming all looking to me like they will be 20+PPG, 10+ RPG bigmen on good teams in the coming years.

You have to have a guy who can keep those guys from getting 25-15 or you're dead but Perkins actually is good enough to hold these guys under their averages. When a team is built around a big man if you can hold that bigman down 95% of the time you're going to beat them in a seven game series.

[MoBSTa]

The impact of having a defender at any position is under-valued by and large by the majority of NBA fans. But the most valueable defensive piece is in the post/paint because that is where the highest percentage offense comes from and its not just the baskets that he actually defends but because he is also an enforcer many players don't even try and get to the rim against him in the first place.

As for his offense people need to remember that we are talking about a 23 year old that showed marked improvement last year as well. Perkins is a worker and I fully believe the improvement will continue to the point where he can become a valued part of our offensive attack in years to come.

If a Ben Wallace was able to get his production up to the 9-10 PPG level and be an invalueable member of one of the best teams of this era for the Pistons I think Perkins is more then capable of getting up to the 12-13 PPG range on fewer touches then it took Ben Wallace to get his 9-10 PPG.

He is also quite capable with his form at the line of getting himself into the 70-75% range from the stripe making the hack a Perk defensive tactic unavailible against this team.

If i'm correct and he can make himself into a 12 PPG, 10 RPG, 2.5 BPG player per 36 minutes played then we will have one of the best centers in the NBA in the coming years instead of just one of the best defensive bigs which he is right now.

Its about to become even more valueable to have a defensive enforcer at center as the next golden age of center prospects have entered the scene with Greg Oden, Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum, Al Jefferson and Yao Ming all looking to me like they will be 20+PPG, 10+ RPG bigmen on good teams in the coming years.

You have to have a guy who can keep those guys from getting 25-15 or you're dead but Perkins actually is good enough to hold these guys under their averages. When a team is built around a big man if you can hold that bigman down 95% of the time you're going to beat them in a seven game series.

Nice job, I couldn't have said it better myself.

[billfromBoston]

league and will have the stats to back up his overall value: 12-14pts 9-11rbs, 2-3blks---these numbers aren't far from his CURRENT per-36 minute production BTW, so its not that much of a stretch...

Hmm didn't people like you last year predict a 10 and 10 out of him. He didn't even have an 8 and 8 season. Why you think he will develop past guys like Bierdins is beyond me.. If Perkins thought he was going to be that great he wouldn't have signed that contract. One of Perkins best qualities is that he knows his role.

I say 8 and 7 for him this year..

Pete

Yes, I did predict a 10/10 season from him...I also believed he'd be playing 35-36 mpg, which he didn't...his numbers would have been pretty close to that prediction if he'd played the time...I had no idea that Glen Davis was going to get minutes at the 5, nor did i think that Powe or PJ Brown would factor in either...I thought Pollard and KG may syphon off 10-15 minutes combined at the 5...

...again, give the man 35-36 mpg and he'll be a regular double-double guy...that's my story and i'm sticking to it...last season's averages put him at 10.1 pts and 8.9 rbs in 36 mpg of action-not too shabby and certainly a reasonable amount of minutes for a starter...

...I don't think Perk will get 36 mpg this year because of the depth on the team and Ainge's need to see some of the other players get action in order to gauge their value...but 30 mpg isn't out of the question and I think Perk will up his per-minute production a bit from last year, so I see no reason why he can't get 10/9 in 30 mpg IF he uses his jumper and gets a few post touches to go along with his dunks and FT's...

...eventually though, Perk WILL be a 30-36 mpg a night center, this I do believe...then you'll see the production...

[billfromBoston]

Why are people so fascinated by stats? I don`t care if he averages 10-10 or 8-8. He just needs to do his job on the defensive end. That is what he should be measured by and not if he scores 2 more/less points per game. Luckily Perk is aware of his role on this team unlike majority of fans...and exactly that makes him so valuable and special...

Who says we are "fascinated".. I was just talking about Bill's 14pt prediction. I agree he does his job fine right now. We won a championship with him and PJ Brown..

...keep it in context Clinch--I said in 3 or 4 years he can be a 12-14 ppg guy, (age 26-27.) This coincides with my impression of when the team will start to transition away from GPA as the main offensive focal points and will be more reliant on supporting cast members...of course, if the team brings in Dwayne Wade or something all bets are off...but from a pure development standpoint, based on the personnel the team currently has I don't think that is out of the question at all...if Perkins had more possessions on offense he'd be more productive...the guy gets about 5-6 shots a game and shoots 60%, I don't think its unreasonable to expect 12-14 pts on, say, 50% shooting if he took 10-12 shots a game...

[Pogue Mahone]

I hate the talk of points/rebounds per game. I really do. They only way they have any validity what-so-ever is if everyone is judged on a pace-neutral statistics. Even then, role in both the offense and defense have a big part to play in a player's raw numbers.

Kendrick Perkins is the best option at center, both here in the now and for the foreseeable future.

I have read many opinions on the matter and, while there are certainly weaknesses in his game, I think after careful analysis and a thorough look at the big picture, open-minded people may well soften their anti-Kendrick Perkins stance.

First of all, he is not your typical 20-25 mpg player. Comparing him to other 20-25 mpg players, without factoring strength of opponent, is a bit silly to me. To wit, Perkins has started every game in which he has appeared. Most 20-25 mpg players come off the bench. Why should this matter you might ask?

Many of the gripes concerning Perkins are of the offensive variety. Not the gripes, themselves, but rather dealing with his weaknesses at the offensive end of the floor. Common sense and statistics both say that it is easier to score against bench players, on the whole, than it is to score against other teams' front-line starters.

To wit, it is more difficult to rebound against starters. It is more difficult to have a high field goal percentage against starters. It is more difficult to accumulate free throw attempts against starters. Players tend to turnover the ball more against starters. There are a myriad of things that are harder to do against opposing starter players yet, despite not seeing much time against back-ups, Perkins pace adjusted, per minute numbers and efficiencies are quite strong against the starter opposition.

One way to separate the wheat from the chafe is to analyze, on a minute by minute basis, for each player in the league, how many opposing starters were on the floor for each minute played. Ahh, now we are getting somewhere.

Currently, Perkins is ranked #2 (unless you count Chris Webber's six game stint with G.S.), overall, in the percentage of opposing team starters on the floor, on a per minute basis. Simply stated, for every minute the Kendrick plays, there are approximately 4.04 opposition starters on the floor (80.87%.) Compare that with a Glen Davis, for instance, who faces just 2.41 starters (48.19%.) Or maybe with a James Posey, ~2.70 starters (53.95%.)

Another issue is that many claim that Perkins doesn't rebound enough to warrant a role as a starter. Again, I say that is hogwash but lets investigate further.

The average RebRate, by position, breakdowns like this:

Code: Select all


Position   RbR   
Center     15.0%   
Power Forward    13.8%   
Small Forward   8.9%   
Shooting Guard   6.8%   
Point Guard    5.5%   



Perkins finished the season at 14.78%. Which, if you make a big differentiation between PF and C, rebounding-wise, is a tick below what is normally expected from a center. Ahhh but not so fast. Who is he paired with in the frontcourt? Garnett, of course. In fact, Perkins played 74.45% of his 1912 minutes paired with Garnett.

Garnett finished with a rebrate of 16.77%. All units featuring that tandem put up an offensive rebound percentage of 27.78% and a defensive rebound percentage of 74.18%. They were pretty dominant on the defensive glass and above average on the offensive glass.

By my TEN+ rating, Perkins was at 107. His fair salary was $5.222M. His WinGoal48 Rating was 5.3 (essentially, he was "worth" 5.3 points per 48 minutes over a hypothetical league average player.)

To put that in perspective, in 2007, The Jefferson, as a first option for much of the year, put up a TEN+ of 109, a fair salary of $8.279M and a WG48 of 3.1.

IOW, despite using half the possessions of 2007 The Jefferson, 2008 Kendrick Perkins was a tick below what The Golden Child did the previous season. By overall impact (WG48), Perkins was better. I make this point for a simple reason. If people were up in arms about losing The Jefferson in a deal for Kevin Freakin' Garnett, why is there any talk what-so-ever about removing Perkins from the starting line-up?

Make no mistake, The Jefferson has value because of his ability to score the ball. That being said, he needs possessions to accumulate that value. If he doesn't have those touches, he would be less effective. Go ahead and normalize The Jefferson's 2007 PER to league average usage rate. Now do it by adjusting upwards to league average for 2008 Perkins.

There were three star players on the 2008 Celtics (Garnett, Pierce and Rondo.) The fourth most valuable player, on a per minute basis, was Perkins.

Go ahead. Snicker, laugh, do what you have to do. Then believe it because it's true.

[EJay33]

This is neat analysis and interesting that Perk ranked ahead of Ray. Another question would be the effect of playing with other starters. It seems like Perk gets a number of easy buckets off of feeds from KG, Rondo, and Pierce. Couldn't it also be that it makes it easier for Perk to shoot a high percentage, score, and rebound if the defense is busy focusing on three hall of famers?

[GuyClinch]

There were three star players on the 2008 Celtics (Garnett, Pierce and Rondo.) The fourth most valuable player, on a per minute basis, was Perkins.

Wait why exactly is Perkins ranked above Ray Allen? The Ray Allen that scores 17.4 ppg with a TS% of .584. That Ray Allen? Heck if we look at the most anti guard statistic I know - win shares Ray Allen STLL beat Perkins with 9.5 ws compared to Perkins 6.1.

Is this tied into Ray Allen's usage rate? Usage is hardly the be all and end all of statistics. Guys who perform well with low usage rates aren't hidden stars - they are excellent roleplayers. All it indicates is that they are not called on to do much but when they are called on the come through. It's not like Perkins can just up his usage and up his statistical output. It wouldn't happen..

Pete

[tlee324]

Sure, there are other players that could play roles. The question becomes, will they accept and embrace those roles?

If feel this team is a good fit for Perkins as it it built. He not only plays a role he embraces, but he embraces the role because that's what he does on the floor to begin with. If he were asked to do what another player does, and he wasn't capable of doing it, he'd be less embraceable. With the team around him, he can play his role and be effective playing to his strengths.

If The Jefferson is your tin-guarder, not only will he not challenge very many shots, he often completely pulls his hands back to avoid any contact and, in turn, allowing uncontested forages into the paint. He lacks the skill to cover smaller men in space. I am not trying to bash The Jefferson but if everyone wants to give up the love for The Jefferson when he no longer plays on our team, they should also recognize that talent of Kendrick Perkins.

This is why I say it's all hypothetical here when talking about Jefferson. I don't think it's accurate to say he can't do something if he hasn't been asked to play this role on this particular team. He plays a different game altogether in Minnesota, with different teammates, etc. He isn't as physical as Perkins, but you're painting a picture that he wouldn't be able to play a role defensively with Garnett at all or would shy away from the role altogether based on this, and I think there's more middle ground here. He did block about 2 shots per game playing just around 35 minutes per game. It doesn't make him Duncan defensively, but it does show shot blocking ability and also someone that doesn't always just shy away under the basket. I realize there are other stats to look at such as opponent FG% and such, but again, looking at those stats in Minny and not taking into account he'd be with a different and better team altogether.... there's middle ground here, is all I'm saying. I also feel that it's being underestimated how strong they'd be offensively. He has great hands (as does Perk), and being the beneficiary of all the attention Ray, Paul and KG receive would work in his favor, IMO.

I'd never ignore Perkins' talent. I don't feel the need to defend myself on how many times I've praised or stuck up for him on this board. One of my big beefs early on was the injustice of having LaFrentz and Blount playing over the combo of he and Jefferson when we were getting out rebounded and pushed around physically in the paint.

If you could only choose one player in the NBA to fulfill the role of tin-guarder, post defender, shot alterer and blitzer from the pivot on the defensive end, Perkins is the far superior choice, imo. There are other players who exceed him in any one of those areas, clearly, but there is no player I can think of who can combine all of those things into the package that Perkins provides. When you combine that with his ability to clear space underneath the basket, his developing offensive game, his ability to pass both out of the post and on the outlet, I can't think of anyone that I would want playing center for my team more than Perkins. Especially when you consider other factors such as upside, price, demeanor and work ethic.

Every player has strengths and weaknesses, and Perkins' strengths fit perfectly with this team as it's constructed. Perk could one night have a great offensive game, and score next to nothing on the same team a few days later, and the team still gels and still wins because he's still in his role at all times. I think if Jefferson were on this team, the dynamic changes, but the gelling and winning could still be on track. The big difference is that we've seen it with our own eyes that Perkins works for this team. It's all hypothetical with Jefferson.

[tlee324]

There were three star players on the 2008 Celtics (Garnett, Pierce and Rondo.) The fourth most valuable player, on a per minute basis, was Perkins.

Wait why exactly is Perkins ranked above Ray Allen? The Ray Allen that scores 17.4 ppg with a TS% of .584. That Ray Allen? Heck if we look at the most anti guard statistic I know - win shares Ray Allen STLL beat Perkins with 9.5 ws compared to Perkins 6.1.

Is this tied into Ray Allen's usage rate? Usage is hardly the be all and end all of statistics. Guys who perform well with low usage rates aren't hidden stars - they are excellent roleplayers. All it indicates is that they are not called on to do much but when they are called on the come through. It's not like Perkins can just up his usage and up his statistical output. It wouldn't happen..

Pete

Playing the stat game is nice. Real nice. It's fun to read. It's not going to tell me what my eyes already saw on the floor though. Agreeing with you here, Perkins plays a role and the numbers will reflect he does a good job in his role. It doesn't mean he's more valuable to this team than Ray, unless Pogue is making a case that Perkins' ROLE is more important than what Ray brought to this team. The role itself, and its need to be fulfilled was more important... maybe that's what he's saying... but I'm not the UN here...

[Egregious Blunder]

with 3 max contract players on our roster and way in the luxury tax, i dont see how we can do much better than perk.
at his pricetag, i think hes just fine.

[GuyClinch]

Playing the stat game is nice. Real nice. It's fun to read. It's not going to tell me what my eyes already saw on the floor though. Agreeing with you here, Perkins plays a role and the numbers will reflect he does a good job in his role. It doesn't mean he's more valuable to this team than Ray, unless Pogue is making a case that Perkins' ROLE is more important than what Ray brought to this team. The role itself, and its need to be fulfilled was more important... maybe that's what he's saying... but I'm not the UN here...

Stats have to pass the laugh test. Stats would tell you that Chad Pennington is a superior QB to Brett Favre. But what that's really saying is that QB rating is a crappy statistic...

Likewise I wanted to know what crappy statistic was telling him that Perkins is better then Ray Allen. What's next Scalabrine is better then Kobe Bryant?!

Pete

[EJay33]

I am starting to agree with Pete a little bit on this one, although I would certainly love to see Pogue's stats. Do you get those numbers from a site or is this stuff you do on your own?

I agree with the laugh test analysis for rating players based on stats. Everytime I load a Hollinger column and see our own Leon Powe ranked as a top 15 NBA player it makes me want to close the window. I'd like to see a ranking system that puts LeBron at 1, Kobe at 2, and continues all the way down to Ray Allen being better than Kendrick Perkins.

I think Pogue showing us that Perk gets most of his burn against other team's starters is useful information, but the analysis seems like speculation to me. He insinuates that because Perk plays against starters that points, rebounds, assists, and good shot opportunities should be fewer and farther between. This might be true in some cases, but I think when your own starters are superior to the other team's starters then the opposite might be true and it becomes easier to play with other great players. Especially historically great unselfish players like Kevin Garnett.

Let's face it, there isn't a team in the league who looks at the Celtics and says "We can't let Kendrick Perkins get comfortable." I think teams would glady let Perk establish himself in the low post if it meant taking their chances with his back-board shattering hook versus letting any of the other four starters do their thing. I would argue that by design teams would put Perk in position to succeed, and this definitely seems to be true watching games and counting easy buckets for Perk.

This is why I am equally interested in how much run Perk gets with starts on his own team compared to your typical 24.5mpg player. 82games.com or can I get Pogue to do my homework for me?