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Hope for 09' ?

TheUrbanZealot
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Hope for 09' ? 

Post#1 » by TheUrbanZealot » Sat Sep 6, 2008 10:05 am

While it's easy to write off this season, I think one of the underlying storylines is the potential for us to actually have one of the best rotations in baseball next year, if , that is, Bedard can remain healthy:

Bedard
Herndandez
Morrow
Rowland Smith

We could have 4 pitchers with sub-4.00 ERA's, which would bode huge for us. If we can somehow trade Silva or just cut our losses now and bring in another powerball righty, I would go so far to say that we should have one of the top 5 rotations in baseball. If ALL stay healthy, we'd definitely be one of the strikeout leaders too.

Now the real question to justify our hope is how our offense will do. We've gotten a surge as of late from Beltre- If he can play next year like he did his contract year, with the above starters, who knows?
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Re: Hope for 09' ? 

Post#2 » by BlackMamba » Sat Sep 6, 2008 2:05 pm

yeah, i agree it seems like the Ms have a pretty good rotation, or at least from 1-3 with felix, bedard and morrow that if healthy each could have a positive mark in the W/L columns helping the Ms. the bullpen also looks pretty stable.

i think the offense also looks good. what the Ms have to decide is which will be the final roster and the final batting order. the "vets" like ichiro, beltre and ibañez are set to be the core of the offense, with players like lopez supporting them and i expect that balentien and clement to have a more constant time of play and to show all of their offensive weapons.

and as i was watching the minor league stats i don't know if victor diaz will be promoted to the MLB, for me it's odd they haven't given him the chance.

and just and OT kind of question, wasn't another guy named tuiasosopo a huskies QB?
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Re: Hope for 09' ? 

Post#3 » by Sweezo » Sat Sep 6, 2008 9:09 pm

Silva, as a fifth starter, is tolerable if the defense is there to help him out. The key is not being afraid to jettison Washburn and Batista.
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Re: Hope for 09' ? 

Post#4 » by seatownsports » Sun Sep 7, 2008 5:21 am

We're in rebuilding mode..officially..but what to do with Batista? I say bullpen is the most logical choice.
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Re: Hope for 09' ? 

Post#5 » by BlackMamba » Sun Sep 7, 2008 9:17 pm

it's been weird (at least for me) to see batista in the bullpen and starting... why?
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Re: Hope for 09' ? 

Post#6 » by TheUrbanZealot » Mon Sep 8, 2008 3:31 am

BlackMamba wrote:it's been weird (at least for me) to see batista in the bullpen and starting... why?



when is his contract up? I honestly want no part of him on the M's. I remember Batista had one of his once every 10 game good outings, and he was like "i think I've discovered a secret, a change in my delivery that is going to be successful, etc"... keep in mind he is in his mid-late 30's so it's not like he is going to blossom all of a sudden. He constantly has excuses and really serves no purpose on this team.

As far as Silva, I don't think he's tolerable as a 5th starter. He's always been a soft thrower. The notion that he relies on good defense is absolutely silly. It's not like it's the fielders fault he constantly gives up 9 runs in 3 IP. The guy is flat out, a horrid pitcher, and he was a perfect example a GM's desperation to acquire marginal pitching talent.

I want the following gone by next year. I'd rather give minor league players the experience while learning on the job if we are going to have starters with + 6.00 ERA's:

Silva
Batista
Washburn

The more and more i t hink about it, I believe he was brought in because of the Venezuelan connection w/ Felix. I think they thought he'd be a mentor/familiar face, if you will. I hate when teams do stuff like that...
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Re: Hope for 09' ? 

Post#7 » by Ex-hippie » Mon Sep 8, 2008 2:46 pm

TheUrbanZealot wrote:As far as Silva, I don't think he's tolerable as a 5th starter. He's always been a soft thrower. The notion that he relies on good defense is absolutely silly. It's not like it's the fielders fault he constantly gives up 9 runs in 3 IP.


You're wrong, yet again. Silva's DIP% is 0.72, easily the lowest in the AL among qualifying pitchers. His DIPS ERA of 4.71, while not exactly good, is a far cry from his actual ERA. Quite clearly, Silva has suffered from atrocious infield defense.

When are you going to start apologizing for calling people's points "absolutely silly" when they're right and you're wrong? This happens about once a week. I already know how this is going to play out: you're going to slink away from this thread like you've done every other time you've been owned, then you'll come back and be utterly wrong about something else in another thread.
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Re: Hope for 09' ? 

Post#8 » by Basketball Jesus » Mon Sep 8, 2008 3:06 pm

The notion that he relies on good defense is absolutely silly. It's not like it's the fielders fault he constantly gives up 9 runs in 3 IP.


Carlos Silva is eighth in all of baseball in hits allowed. Out of pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, Silva ranks seventh in batting average on balls in play. If you’re into even nerdier statistics, Sliva’s ERA/FIP is 6.53/4.76.


However you want to look at it, Silva is completely dependent on his defense as he puts a ton of balls into play. Will a good defense behind him turn Silva into an All-Star pitcher? No. Will it turn him into an innings-munching average starter? Possibly.
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Re: Hope for 09' ? 

Post#9 » by TheUrbanZealot » Mon Sep 8, 2008 3:21 pm

It boggles my mind how some of you are quick to defend someone who is the WORST starter in all of baseball.

Why don't we check the errors committed by our defense w/ Silva starting vs. the errors committed w/ any our other starters.

Continually using our "atrocious defense" as an excuse for Silva's struggles is absolutely absurd. The defense is not atrocious enough to warrant justifying his bloated ERA. Pointing out micro-irrelevant stats doesn't cover the stark reality- he gives up too many big innings.

Carlos Silva, if you remember, started off alright. His 1st 3 or 4 starts were actually promising. Then he collapsed. We had the same defense then, so what is it that DRAMATICALLY CHANGED to warrant him going from giving up very few runs to all of a sudden CONSISTENTLY SUCKING?

Some of you are absolutely unbelievable in defending this guy, the same way some of you defended Richie Sexson (until inevitably, reality set in for you). Silva's ERA is over 6.00!!!! You would think that if our defense was that absymal, our other starters would be experiencing some of the same results. But of course, the excuse is that they aren't groundball pitchers like Silva is, right. Our defense is just out of position EVERY SINGLE TIME SILVA STARTS lol...

I am not sure if it has to do w/ the Sonics leaving, mounting frustration that just causes some of you to want to argue points home, but the defending of suckdom has reached an inexplicable paramount on this board. I have never witnessed so many people point out insignificant stats to defend people on their own team that simply suck!
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Re: Hope for 09' ? 

Post#10 » by Basketball Jesus » Mon Sep 8, 2008 5:31 pm

TheUrbanZealot wrote:It boggles my mind how some of you are quick to defend someone who is the WORST starter in all of baseball.


I think you often fail to grasp the subtleties of pretty obvious statements: nobody here is “defending” Silva. Silva sucks. We all know it and freely admit as much.

Why don't we check the errors committed by our defense w/ Silva starting vs. the errors committed w/ any our other starters.




Continually using our "atrocious defense" as an excuse for Silva's struggles is absolutely absurd. The defense is not atrocious enough to warrant justifying his bloated ERA. Pointing out micro-irrelevant stats doesn't cover the stark reality- he gives up too many big innings.


Micro-irrelevant? Hits allow is a micro-irrelevant stat?

Here is where I think you’re not getting the point, so let me help break it down for you. If a pitcher throws a pitch that a hitter makes contact with that is in the park (i.e not a home run or foul ball), that is a ball in play. A ball in play is acted upon by a person called a “fielder”. If that ball in play is not converted into an out, it is marked a hit unless an error is made. It is then understood that any ball in play is dependent upon a “fielder” making a clean play to eliminate the hitter or runner, i.e. an “out”.

Carlos Silva, by virtue of hitters making lots of contact off of him, gives up a lot of balls in play. Fielders, by virtue of them not making a clean play to make an out, cause these to be hits.

Therefore Carlos Silva is more dependent upon his fielders than normal pitchers.

That is the argument. We (at least I’m not) are not making statements of the quality of Carlos Silva’s pitching, other than making the point that Carlos Silva puts a lot of balls in play which, in turn, means he’s more dependent on his fielders than a normal pitcher.

Silva is a crappy pitcher. Silva, behind the bad defense of the Mariners, is an even crappier pitcher. This is what we are saying.
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Re: Hope for 09' ? 

Post#11 » by Sweezo » Tue Sep 9, 2008 4:59 am

This would be an interesting discussion if both sides to the argument had some rudimentary understanding of baseball stats. ERA is completely useless. Evolve.

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