Bobcats Post-Season Chances

[Flash3]

With the way the SE division is currently set up with teams such as Orlando as the class, and Washington a close 2nd and Miami expected to be better, how do you guys view the Bobcats' chances of making the post-season?

IMO, they'd have to be the 2nd best team (record wise) in the division to be able to challenge for the 6-8th seed, but that's more than likely going to be Washington or Miami's, if I had to make a call.

What's your view on this subject?

[e4Nf6]

30%, which is not bad, considering last year....

Everybody pencils in Bos, Det, Cle, Tor, Was, Phi, Orl.....
And that would mean we're fighting the rest of the east for one spot.

Don't forget what happened to Chicago last year, it wouldn't shock me to see one of: Tor,Was, Phi, Orl, fall apart. The only teams I would guarantee to make the playoffs at this point are Bos, Det, and Cle. And even that could change with a Lebron or KG injury.

As for the rest of the east, I'm not impressed with anybody. Only Miami has a strong argument that they will be dramatically better.

[Paydro70]

My personal pick to fail from that group (after Washington, who I don't think is anywhere near a lock) would be Orlando... all it would take is Turkoglu's year to be a bit of a fluke, and slightly worse PG play.

Anyway, I think our odds stand somewhere around 10%. It's just as likely for us to suffer serious injuries as any of the teams we're competing with, and most of the teams in the East have gotten better faster than us (Philly, Miami, Washington, etc.). For us to make the playoffs would mean that Larry Brown and DJ Augustin are worth a minimum of 10-12 extra wins, or that someone (most likely Felton or Okafor) make a huge leap in their capabilities.

The only other thing that would make a HUGE difference is if Sean May magically became healthy for a whole season. If he was good for a lot of minutes this year, that would up our chances maybe as high as 25%. Even if he played 50 games at 25mpg, our chances would be like 18-20%.

[fluffernutter]

My personal pick to fail from that group (after Washington, who I don't think is anywhere near a lock) would be Orlando... all it would take is Turkoglu's year to be a bit of a fluke, and slightly worse PG play.

Anyway, I think our odds stand somewhere around 10%. It's just as likely for us to suffer serious injuries as any of the teams we're competing with, and most of the teams in the East have gotten better faster than us (Philly, Miami, Washington, etc.). For us to make the playoffs would mean that Larry Brown and DJ Augustin are worth a minimum of 10-12 extra wins, or that someone (most likely Felton or Okafor) make a huge leap in their capabilities.

The only other thing that would make a HUGE difference is if Sean May magically became healthy for a whole season. If he was good for a lot of minutes this year, that would up our chances maybe as high as 25%. Even if he played 50 games at 25mpg, our chances would be like 18-20%.

Damn, this is really some sensible stuff. Probably you should be posting elsewhere.

[Bassman]

The reality is we are further from the playoffs this year because other teams have done much more to advance their talent level. Despite being our 11th pick, DJ is a rookie and will have moments good and bad. We have no starting PF, and our reserves at that position have yet to prove they can provide significant production off the bench. Barring injuries, Okafor and Felton will likely play at the level they achieved last year, which for Mek is good, not great, and for Felton is average to good. J-rich will be improved, as I think LB will bring out an even more form this fine player. Wallace is the guy who may not fit in. I think he's hit his statistical peak and the numbers will dip under the LB system. This could lead to a mid-year trade for the PF we needed to begin the season with.

Morrison will contribute, and every now and then look amazing, but our best hope is he fulfills the role he is born to play in the NBA...6th man scoring machine off the bench. Matt Carroll will improve under LB and could become a starter if the Wallace trade prediction comes true. Nazi will enjoy more predictable playing time and set plays, so his production should bump a little higher. Ajinca is NBDL bound, Shannon Brown will be a better role player than most people think.

So that's what we've got to look forward to. A team that features J-Rich, solid contributions from Okafor and Wallace (until his trade), Felts getting better but frustrating when he gets out of LB's system, an obvious deficit on the front line 4 spot and various moments of quality contribution from Ammo and Matt. Not nearly enough to push up through the growth of other teams.

This is based on where we are today, a couple weeks before camp. Things change, but nothing will happen before camp on the trade front. I say a deal goes down either late in pre-season or early November, or it waits until nearing the trade deadline. By the deadline we'll be asking once again...why didn't we get our PF?? It's the same issue every year since we drafted McMay. Can he please just leave so we can move on??

[fluffernutter]

Let's not forget the big coaching change. I know everyone mentioned it, but seriously... Vincent was hands-down the worst coach in the league. Simply was. He was terrible in every way. Dumping him for LB is going to improve us 5 wins at least, even with the same personnel.

It could be a much bigger jump, but that's where my optimism lies. Not in a miraculous comeback from May; nor JRich turning into a superduperstar; nor Felton & Okafor busting out with some nastiness.

It's about the improvement possible when the Bobcats play as a team and, I hope, mesh as a team. Defense. Plays on timeouts. Non-retarded substitutions. Stuff like that.

You can scoff, but it's a legitimate question: how much better will the team be due to the head coaching (and assistant coaching) changes?

Therein lies some room to...perhaps... hope and dream?

[chrbal]

First off; Boston, Detroit, Philly, Cleveland, & Orlando are the only teams I consider to be locks.

On the other side; New York, New Jersey, and Milwaukee are pretty much "locked out". None of those 3 are playoff teams this year.

Leaving you with Toronto, Chicago, Indiana, Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, and Washington fighting for 3 spots.

Atlanta, they BARELY made the playoffs last year and the Pacers BARELY missed it. (37 and 36 wins respectively). The Hawks lost Childress and really didn't improve anything (Evans is a nice add, but I still think Childress is better).
The Pacers inched closer to a rebuild (although I guess I might call it a retool) as they traded the injury prone Jermaine O'Neal for TJ Ford. A strong upgrade at PG, but they are still left holding the bag that is TInsley. The other two big adds are both rookies, which kind of suggests they might be still the best 9th-10th seed in the East.

Miami is coming off a whopping 15 win season. Which had a ton to do with injuries, but its still 15 wins. They added two strong rookies to their roster, but other then that...not much. Magloire looked really bad last year and adding him gives the Heat that wonderful "CENTER BY COMMITEE" plan. They could easily double last years win total, but much beyond that I would be suprised.

Chicago is returning a talented roster (although some of it is still up in the air) and has a brand new/no experience head coach. But they still won 33 games last year with many issues. My guess is they could be a playoff team. Derrick Rose should really help, but they need to clear up their backcourt clutter.

Toronto, without going into to much...i think they will be a playoff team. But one bad injury and they could drop completely out.

Washington is pretty much the same team, just with a healthy Arenas. The potential issue, is that they have 3 potential 20 ppg scorers on their team and one basketball.

The last 3 I think have the best shot at the playoffs and the first 3, the worst shot.

I would put Charlotte somewhere in the middle. Its kind of sad that a lot rides on what kind of production Sean May can bring. Adding DJ, will really help (anything is better then McInnis).

[SteveMorrison15]

What's with the Higher Expectations for Miami over Charlotte?

Wade, Marion, Davis, and Beasley can't be better than Okafor, Wallace, Richardson, Felton combination.

I wouldn't put too much into Sean May making a difference. Every team in the league plays small ball anyways. And horrible small ball I might add. Getting into the playoffs with our team won't be a stretch. Succeeding in the playoffs... is another story.

[chrbal]

I see Sean May as a bit of an x-factor. I do realize that a lot of teams have gone to small ball, but the Bobcats still need him for (well, potentially) offensive skills.

THE LAST 3 are Chicago, Toronto, and Washington. First 3 are Atlanta, the Pacers, and the Heat. Hawks and Pacers share a paragraph. I pretty much bad-mouth Miami in that whole part. The Heat have Mark Blount, Alonzo Mourning (potentially, although I think he pulls a "PJ Brown" and signs with a championship caliber team late in the season), and Jamall Magloire up front. Nazr Mohammed has never looked so good.

[e4Nf6]

Blount and Magloire, ugh

Ill take our "hole" at the 4 over their "hole" at the 5.

[Flash3]

What's with the Higher Expectations for Miami over Charlotte?

Wade, Marion, Davis, and Beasley can't be better than Okafor, Wallace, Richardson, Felton combination.

I wouldn't put too much into Sean May making a difference. Every team in the league plays small ball anyways. And horrible small ball I might add. Getting into the playoffs with our team won't be a stretch. Succeeding in the playoffs... is another story.

They can, but Davis is no longer on this team. -- He's now in LA.

Wade alone is better than any other player listed above. And, this league is all about superstars/great players. If, Wade can remain healthy throughout and get production from Marion/Beasley/Haslem and the Heat can play solid defense, there's no way we're a 15 win team. -- Last year was a disgrace.

But, with that being said. The news of Arenas being out till December opens up the division even further for everyone else.

Orlando: They are probably the best team in our division, but was last year a fluke? Can turkgolu continue that play that made that team go?

Miami: Can Wade/Beasley/Marion = Wade/Caron Butler/Odom, and continue that fast paced offense our new coach wants to run similar to that team of 03/04 that shocked the league.

Bobcats: Can health finally be on their side? Can L Brown make a difference?

A lot of questions to answer, making our division one hell of a race....

[Flash3]

I see Sean May as a bit of an x-factor. I do realize that a lot of teams have gone to small ball, but the Bobcats still need him for (well, potentially) offensive skills.

THE LAST 3 are Chicago, Toronto, and Washington. First 3 are Atlanta, the Pacers, and the Heat. Hawks and Pacers share a paragraph. I pretty much bad-mouth Miami in that whole part. The Heat have Mark Blount, Alonzo Mourning (potentially, although I think he pulls a "PJ Brown" and signs with a championship caliber team late in the season), and Jamall Magloire up front. Nazr Mohammed has never looked so good.

Zo already has his ring he so desperately wanted. He should've retired at the end of last season, but with the way his season ended (knee injury 20 games in), why would he go elsewhere?

All signs are pointing to him returning to Miami, as it stands now, at least.

[chabber]

They can, but Davis is no longer on this team. -- He's now in LA.

Wade alone is better than any other player listed above. And, this league is all about superstars/great players. If, Wade can remain healthy throughout and get production from Marion/Beasley/Haslem and the Heat can play solid defense, there's no way we're a 15 win team. -- Last year was a disgrace.

Absolutely agree with you on this. Last year I knew you guys weren't making the playoffs but this year I'm definitely more worried about the Heat. Wade is healthy. Marion is in a contract year and Beasley with Wade and Marion on this team could really put up some big numbers. I don't see how you'll win less than 30 games unless your struck by injuries. Your my pick to get the 8th seed as things stand right now.

But, with that being said. The news of Arenas being out till December opens up the division even further for everyone else.

Certainly does although it sucks that he's starting off hurt again this year.

Orlando: They are probably the best team in our division, but was last year a fluke? Can turkgolu continue that play that made that team go?

I don't see much change here. Turkgolu may not have the same type season but it won't be far off, same with Nelson.

Miami: Can Wade/Beasley/Marion = Wade/Caron Butler/Odom, and continue that fast paced offense our new coach wants to run similar to that team of 03/04 that shocked the league.

The biggest concern is of course going to be your C, interior defense, rebounding and hitting the open jumpers that Wade will create. I envision a good amount of small ball being run by the Heat.

Bobcats: Can health finally be on their side? Can L Brown make a difference?

I don't think the question should be can LB make a difference but how much of a difference. No matter what, this team will now have direction on both sides of the ball. IMO our season will depend on how much of an improvement can he get out of Felton and Okafor games. May too if he's available. At the same time he must find a way to mesh this team whose talents IMO don't necessarily compliment each other very well. We have a lot of holes and not very many strengths as a team.

The one thing in this league that is a great deodorant for such things is a Superstar which we have none of. The next best thing is a great coach who can make the team play better together than what they really are and that is what we'll be banking on.

A lot of questions to answer, making our division one hell of a race....