Smooth32 wrote:Flash is the Future wrote:You'd pass on Mike Miller because of a 2nd round pick? My response to that would be "Too bad."
I kind of agree with you but you seem to forget what a 2nd round pick can get you these days. A 2nd round pick has gotten the Cavs players like Carlos Boozer, Jason Kapono, Daniel Gibson, etc.
I think if a team got to take all 30 second round picks, got to play them all, then they would have a guy like that. However, very few second rounders even become rotation players in the NBA, and even fewer become starters. Maybe 1-2 a year, so let's say a 2nd rounder gives you a 5% chance at getting a starter. Those low odds don't excite me, and personally, I'd take the cash (well, moving Madsen) over the 2nd.
In fact, I'd go so far as to say that on these boards, we often over-value late firsts as well, and I think NBA history can demonstrate it. Lets estimate with Mike Miller on the Cavs, CLE has the sixth best record in the NBA, and gets the 25th pick. Here are the last 30 years worth of 25th picks:
1977 2.3 76ers Wilson Washington 6'9 227 Old Dominion 1955-08-03
1978 2.3 Hawks Rick Wilson 6'4 200 Louisville 1956-02-07
1979 2.3 Lakers Oliver Mack 6'3 185 East Carolina 1957-06-06
1980 2.2 Warriors Jeff Ruland 6'10 240 Iona 1958-12-16
1981 2.2 Celtics Tracy Jackson 6'6 205 Notre Dame 1959-04-21
1982 2.2 Bullets Bryan Warrick 6'5 195 St. Joseph's (PA) 1959-07-22
1983 2.1 Bulls Sidney Lowe 6'0 195 North Carolina State 1960-01-21
1984 2.1 Pacers Devin Durrant
1985 2.1 Trailblazers Mike Smrek 7'0 250 Canisius 1962-08-31
1986 2.1 Mavericks Mark Price 6'0 170 Georgia Tech 1964-02-15
1987 2.2 Knicks Ron Moore 7'0 260 West Virginia State 1962-01-16
1988 1.25 Lakers David Rivers 6'0 170 Notre Dame 1965-01-20
1989 1.25 Cavaliers John Morton 6'3 180 Seton Hall 1967-05-18
1990 1.25 Trailblazers Alaa Abdelnaby 6'10 240 Duke 1968-06-24
1991 1.25 Warriors Shaun Vandiver
1992 1.25 Clippers Elmore Spencer 7'0 270 UNLV 1969-12-06
1993 1.25 Bulls Corie Blount 6'9 240 Cincinnati 1969-01-04
1994 1.25 Clippers Greg Minor 6'6 210 Louisville 1971-09-18
1995 1.25 Magic David Vaughn 6'9 240 Memphis 1973-03-23
1996 1.25 Jazz Martin Muursepp 6'9 235 ? 1974-09-26
1997 1.25 Knicks John Thomas 6'9 265 1975-09-08
1998 1.25 Pacers Al Harrington 6'9 230 none 1980-02-17
1999 1.25 Heat Tim James 6'7 212 Miami (FL) 1976-12-26
2000 1.25 Suns Iakovos Tsakalidis 7'2 285 None 1979-06-10
2001 1.25 Kings Gerald Wallace 6'7 215 Alabama 1982-07-23
2002 1.25 Nuggets Frank Williams 6'3 205 Illinois 1980-02-25
2003 1.25 Pistons Carlos Delfino
2004 1.25 Celtics Tony Allen
2005 1.25 Supersonics Johan Petro
2006 1.25 Cavaliers Shannon Brown 6'4 205 Michigan State 1985-11-29
2007 1.25 Jazz Morris Almond 6'6 215 Rice 1985-02-02
Yes, its possible with the late 1st, that you might get Gerald Wallace or Mark Price, but the majority of these guys went on to NBA obscurity. I think on these boards we tend to over-value picks because they represent the cool, new, unknown, but they are routinely sold for $3 mil in cash, and I think that's a fair price tag. I always found it ironic that we call the first 14 guys in the draft "lottery picks," but its really all the rest of these picks that have the long odds of a lottery ticket.
Anyway, I think the 1st would be needed, because MIN really seems to like Mike Miller, and that would be a commodity MIN could trade to try to bring in someone else. The 2nd isn't as appealing as cash savings to me, and maybe the front office. MIN added two 2nd rounders in 2009 by trading the other MIA 2nd anyway.