Hollinger team outlook

[lunarblues]

31-51 record??? ouch!

this guy really doesn't like our bench.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/trainingcamp08/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=HawksForecast0809

[HoopsGuru25]

Hollinger goes purely based off his numbers(which may or may not be wrong) regardless even when judging things like college and international basketball. Of course he's going to overrate Chil's impact because he had the 2nd highest PER on the team. I'd rather have Chil than Evans....but I don't think the drop off will be 6 games in the standings.

[JoshB914]

I pretty much agree with everything he said. 31 wins seems a bit low, but I don't see this team making the postseason unless someone other than Evans emerges off the bench. And unless a healthy Speedy Claxton is getting minutes (unlikely), I don't think that's going to happen.

[lethalweapon3]

John Hollinger, put down the bourbon, man! This ain't a last place team in ANYBODY's division (sorry, Memphis!), much less the Southeast.

Hollinger's assessment of a bottom-dweller finish and a paltry 31 wins assumes that (a) the young starters' collective growth stagnates, (b) the bench contributions manage to get worse than last year, (c) we get nothing out of A.L. IV, or even Speedy, (d) the Bobcats instantly figure out what the heck "playing the right way" means, (e) nobody stays healthy, (f) teams like the Bucks and Pacers get SO much better, and (g) Woody sustains his apparent lobotomy regarding substitutions throughout the season. It's as much a glass-one-quarter-empty view as one can have with this team.

Me, I'd rather have Flip-plus-Mo-plus-starting-the-season-with-Bibby than JChill-and-nothing-else. As much as the team defense was slammed in his article, Childress' departure doesn't hamper team defense at all. Besides, the way things are going early on w/ Olympiakos, Josh may soon check to see if there's still room at the inn on this roster.

More likely, there'll be a ton of teams hovering between 37-to-45 wins in the East playoff hunt at season's end. The Hawks have absolutely no reason not to be among them.

I'm emboldened by Hollinger's ESPN being the very same network that gave us this gem regarding Josh Smith...

"If you had to pick which guy was most likely to be a bust in the first round, it would be this guy."

~lw3

[evildallas]

I was wondering when someone would post the Hollinger prediction. There were some things in there that I really didn't agree with like Marvin being the best perimeter man defender. He's very down on Acie Law and the numbers would reinforce that, but I want to see Acie play this season before I write him off as a horrible flop. If Acie can play the bench gets better. However he is right that the bench is weak especially among the bigs. Some people have to step forward and become worthwhile contributors on the court. I see the team winning more than 31, but I'm not willing to predict smooth sailing to the playoffs with Mike Woodson at the helm.

[JoshB914]

Hollinger was also one of the only analysts to pick the Hawks to make the playoffs last season. He knows his stuff. And he's right more than almost any other analyst. I agree that 31 wins is too few, but is this a playoff team? We won 37 games last year and didn't get much better over the summer.

Indiana had one win fewer than us last year, Chicago was four games behind, and we all know the Heat are at the least a team that will battle for the playoffs. It's not like the teams behind us have to make a huge leap to surpass us in the standings.

Evil- do you feel that we would have an easy road to the playoffs with a different coach? This roster is still very flawed, I think most coaches would struggle to get this team into the postseason.

[Master8492]

^The roster's flawed last season as well and they managed to make it. I don't think that's a legit reason to give Woody a pass for this season. As Hollinger said, the Hawks starting 5 may be the best in the division; the problem is the bench ...which I don't think it's that bad. Evans, Speedy, Law, Flip... they just need another capable big man in the rotation; I'd like to see Solo get some action (consistently) to see if he can be productive similarly to players like Powe, Maxille, or even Sean Williams. If only Woody will play the bench consistently... especially in blowouts.

[killbuckner]

31 wins is too low if the team stays healthy- but think about how quickly the season can go south if the Hawks get a major injury to any starter other than Marvin. The Hawks had probably the worst bench in the league last season and it got worse. If Speedy can regain his form as a top backup PG then that would help a ton, but not only does no one expect him to play a full season, most here would rather those minutes go to Acie anyway.

[LL Cool Scott]

31 is definitely too low, even for a cynic like LL. I agree that our bench is the worst in the league (thanks Billy!!!), but like LethalWeapon posted above - Hollinger is ignoring the inevitable improvement (both individually and collectively) of our young guys. I expect Horford to be a monster this year, and I think that Bibby will be a tremendous contributor this year. Remember that Bibby's healthy, will have a full training camp with these guys, and most importantly is in a contract year. We'll be scratching and clawing for that last playoff spot just like last year.

LL's prediction: 40-42, 8th seed

[killbuckner]

LL- you expect Bibby to be better even though he has gotten worse the past 3 years?

I still think that everyone is forgetting about the realistic scenarios here. Is 31 games too low if Acie starts 20 games and Zaza starts 30?

But I will also say- that I don't see 31 games as the median or even average. But 31 games wouldn't be a total shock at all once a starter or two goes down. The vegas over/under is 39.5 which is more of the consensus average.

[LL Cool Scott]

Sort of - I don't expect him to magically turn into 2002 Mike Bibby. But I do expect him to gel better with the rest of the team, which will benefit the team play as a whole. And I HOPE he's actually healthy. So....I expect the TEAM to improve because of him, but not necessarily his individual numbers to improve.

I guess I'm hoping that with a full training camp and a clean bill of health (and a new contract to play for), that Bibby will improve those around him. Does that make sense?

[NWO4Life]

Did anyone here of Hollinger watch the playoff series last year?

The Hawks are a good team. Josh Childress was not all that and his play in Europe proves this.

We will make the playoffs again because the team will continue to improve.

I foresee Bibby being traded but not for a guard... Eddie Curry will be a Hawk with a draft pick consideration coming our way. *just a hunch*

Either way the Hawks create match problems for EVERY team in the NBA. The more cohesive the team becomes the better there record will be and great cohesive teams have played together for years. The sum is greater than the parts.

GO HAWKS!

[evildallas]

Hollinger was also one of the only analysts to pick the Hawks to make the playoffs last season. He knows his stuff. And he's right more than almost any other analyst. I agree that 31 wins is too few, but is this a playoff team? We won 37 games last year and didn't get much better over the summer.

Indiana had one win fewer than us last year, Chicago was four games behind, and we all know the Heat are at the least a team that will battle for the playoffs. It's not like the teams behind us have to make a huge leap to surpass us in the standings.

Evil- do you feel that we would have an easy road to the playoffs with a different coach? This roster is still very flawed, I think most coaches would struggle to get this team into the postseason.

As for the roster, I agree with Hollinger's main assessment that the bench is too weak. The BK era squandered 2nd round picks like they were worthless and underachieved in the lottery. Free agency was also bleak. I'm not sure Sund's a solution yet because I don't really see him as a great drafter either. As such we have a very thin bench. You can't get a perfect roster with the cap rules, but you can definitely get more balance than the Hawks have.

As for coaching, I think Woodson is horrible. I think he costs the team 5 games a season with his poor in-game adjustments. I don't know if another coach makes it easily into the post-season, but 5 games to the win total helps. Furthermore on a thin team, I've seen Woodson's roster handling derail previous seasons. I speak mainly of a couple of seasons ago when his overuse of Ty Lue at the start of the season until injury was followed by using Speedy 30+ minutes a night when he came back for about 5 games until he broke down. ANYONE paying attention with a clue knew that Speedy's knee couldn't handle that many minutes, but Woodson rather than pace him and maintain a least a veteran guard for 20-24 minutes a night left his team without a PG at all unless you count the likes of Cedric Bozeman who got a start during the resulting stretch.

My other complaint of Woodson is the quality of his assembled staff. Maybe this is a problem with ownerships commitment to paying assistants or maybe it is an indictment of Woodson's connections and ability to convince people to work for him. Player development seems to occur primarily over the summer and often better away from the team. Other teams manage to polish and utilize raw bench players while little progress happens here. That has contributed to the weak bench that Hollinger predicts will cause Atlanta to fall back to 31 victories. Is one to read into his prediction he expects injuries to plague the starters because of poor depth?

I think the playoffs are going to be tough to reach, but if the Hawks make them it will probably be due to a breakout season from at least one player and the brief visit to the playoffs educating the team on a higher level of effort/focus/intensity. If past history is an indicator I think they'll have to overcome Woodson's coaching costing a few games to get there.

[HoopsGuru25]

One of my biggest complaints about Woodson during his 4 years is that he always emphasizes defense and rebounding yet our defensive efficiency and defensive rebounding in general have been horrendous the last 4 years. I realize that BK didn't help by drafting undersized players and failing to get a real defensive big men(although he passed Blo off as one) but you would think that we wouldn't finish in the bottom half in tempo every year too. It will be interesting to see if the Bucks and Bobcats continue to suck on defense after two years despite getting new coaches.

[lethalweapon3]

A bit unfair to offer seasonal comparisons, sure, but the infamous "Playoff Guarantee" Hawks roster of 2002-2003, in an Eastern Conference that was still weak relative to the West even then? 35 WINS.

Backcourt was JT and Dion Glover (eventually, Ira Newble). Big Dog (cough). Reef and Theo holding it down as best they could up front. Defensive Juggernauts, all!

And the vaunted bench? Hendu (yes he was STILL here). Chris Crawford (still there, still injured, thank the Lawd). Darvin "did ya know I once broke a backboard in college?" Ham. Jermaine "Do What You Do When You Did What You Did" Jackson. Naz. Matt Maloney. Emanual "Don't Call Me Lewis" Davis. And The Human Mop, Dan Dickau.

35 WINS.

To be fair, the eighth seed was like 42-40 that year, and the bottom-dwellers were especially wretched. But I think "barely sub-500" will be enough for teams to get into the Eastern Conference playoffs again this season.

~lw3