Hollinger predictions

GP · Post #1 » by GP » Wed Oct 1, 2008 7:08 pm

Basketball is around the corner (thankfully), thought this was an interesting read:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/trainingc ... recast0809

I agree with most of what he has to say, with the exception of where the jazz end up (I don't see them ending up as the top seed). The jazz do foul too much as a result of their "defensive system" put in place by sloan. I found it interesting that Milsap fouls as much as he does, maybe as jazz fans we equate fouling to good defense........ Anyways, basketball in a few more weeks!

ChocolateThundr · Post #2 » by **ChocolateThundr** » Wed Oct 1, 2008 7:24 pm

Thank God he didnt pick us (Lakers) as the number 1 in the West.

Soul Patch · Post #3 » by **Soul Patch** » Wed Oct 1, 2008 8:03 pm

Damn, we've been Hollinger cursed. Let's hope Memo's and Deron's beards are strong enough to nullify it.

carrottop12 · Post #4 » by **carrottop12** » Wed Oct 1, 2008 8:25 pm

Don't really disagree with anything he says. And I can see the Jazz finishing first overall.

BarneyGumble · Post #5 » by **BarneyGumble** » Wed Oct 1, 2008 8:38 pm

The free-throw frenzy wasn't isolated to those six games. Bryant didn't get 96 free throws because of some conspiracy to favor the Lakers or a nefarious plot by David Stern to keep small-market teams out of the Finals; it happened because Utah really, truly fouled him on nearly every play, just like they did to most of their opponents all season.

Ok I can see how he can argue the above for games 1,2,3, and 6 MAYBE....but game 5 of that series was a total rook job by the refs and there's no two ways about it. I distinctly remember plays like Odom driving past nobody for a slam late in the fourth. An "and one" was called on Boozer, yet Boozer is nearly at the 3 point line. It was a phantom call, and not an isolated incident.

More importantly than OUR fouling, however, was that the Lakers GOT AWAY WITH just as brutal and physical of play. Remember Gasol shoving Okur out of the way to get an offensive rebound and a putback, again late in the fourth? Or how about Harpring taking a perfectly planted charge RIGHT IN FRONT of mob ref Delaney, and Delaney swallows his whistle. Well not 20 seconds later that same Delaney is calling Boozer for a questionable charge on the other end.

Total rook job. I believe the Jazz were the best team in the NBA last season. But we'll never know...

carrottop12 · Post #6 » by **carrottop12** » Wed Oct 1, 2008 9:02 pm

Ok I can see how he can argue the above for games 1,2,3, and 6 MAYBE....but game 5 of that series was a total rook job by the refs and there's no two ways about it. I distinctly remember plays like Odom driving past nobody for a slam late in the fourth. An "and one" was called on Boozer, yet Boozer is nearly at the 3 point line. It was a phantom call, and not an isolated incident.

More importantly than OUR fouling, however, was that the Lakers GOT AWAY WITH just as brutal and physical of play. Remember Gasol shoving Okur out of the way to get an offensive rebound and a putback, again late in the fourth? Or how about Harpring taking a perfectly planted charge RIGHT IN FRONT of mob ref Delaney, and Delaney swallows his whistle. Well not 20 seconds later that same Delaney is calling Boozer for a questionable charge on the other end.

Total rook job. I believe the Jazz were the best team in the NBA last season. But we'll never know...

That game 5 on the road, specifically the fourth quarter was the worst officiating I have ever seen in a game ever and that is saying something. The Jazz had that game in the fourth and the Refs gave it to the Lakers. Had the Jazz won that it would have been game 6 in Utah with the Jazz up 3-2.

Post #7 » by **jazzfan1971** » Wed Oct 1, 2008 9:13 pm

Wasn't this the same guy that HATES the Jazz?

edfmx86 · Post #8 » by **edfmx86** » Wed Oct 1, 2008 10:46 pm

he hated us 2 years ago, , last season he started being a little more fair to the jazz. Sounds like hes on the Utah Jazz bandwagon this season. Im gonna pray tonight hoping this isnt a bad thing.

i still hate John Hollinger

Racer X · Post #9 » by **Racer X** » Thu Oct 2, 2008 12:24 am

He is pretty right on. We are too foul prone, and it makes it worse because we tend to not get calls on the road. His 410 more points off FT's then the league average stood out.

carrottop12 · Post #10 » by **carrottop12** » Thu Oct 2, 2008 12:49 am

Racer X wrote:He is pretty right on. We are too foul prone, and it makes it worse because we tend to not get calls on the road. His 410 more points off FT's then the league average stood out.

He also negated to point out the fact that the Jazz were the team that shot the second most amount of free throws per game last season at just over 28. They did least the league in free-throw's attemted against, and that was at 30.1 per game.

So in all honesty it was a difference of 2 free-throws per game, and at %75 free throw shooting that is 1.5 points per game.

That's really not a huge difference. And does anyone know how many games the Jazz lost last year by 1 point?

Exactly... 0.

The fouling is annoying, but I really don't see it doing much during the regular season, it does hurt against the Kobe's of the world in the playoffs however.

Racer X · Post #11 » by **Racer X** » Thu Oct 2, 2008 4:04 am

Batronuj wrote:
Racer X wrote:He is pretty right on. We are too foul prone, and it makes it worse because we tend to not get calls on the road. His 410 more points off FT's then the league average stood out.

He also negated to point out the fact that the Jazz were the team that shot the second most amount of free throws per game last season at just over 28. They did least the league in free-throw's attemted against, and that was at 30.1 per game.

So in all honesty it was a difference of 2 free-throws per game, and at %75 free throw shooting that is 1.5 points per game.

That's really not a huge difference. And does anyone know how many games the Jazz lost last year by 1 point?

Exactly... 0.

The fouling is annoying, but I really don't see it doing much during the regular season, it does hurt against the Kobe's of the world in the playoffs however.

I think its true however that the games we win comfortably typically are the ones with the least amount of FT's shot. Anyone have a stat of Personal Fouls against the Jazz in games won and games lost?

Post #12 » by **DelaneyRudd** » Thu Oct 2, 2008 4:11 am

Now I am just getting antsy for some games. Always nice on the fan's attitude to get nice pub like this, but man, anything but 1st will be disappointing now.

I can't think of any player on the Jazz, aside from Collins who will be worse than last year. (I am counting Knight as Hart and I think Harpring will be the same but not worse) CJ will take minutes away from Harp and AK, though I see AK being more effective in his time. Brewer will also make room for CJ as he will play more 3. Millsap and Boozer are battling for a contract, and I think either Fes or Koufos will will do fine in their roles well enough that our starting PF won't have to be our backup C.

Pai Gow · Post #13 » by **Pai Gow** » Thu Oct 2, 2008 5:16 am

Personally, watching the Boston/L.A. series, I don't see how we defended the Lakers all that differently than how Boston did. The actual difference was referee's blowing their whistle against rather than Boston.

d-will8 · Post #14 » by **d-will8** » Thu Oct 2, 2008 12:27 pm

I agree with most of what Hollinger has to say and I really do think the Jazz have a legitimate chance to end up with the top seed in the West. However, I too believe that the Jazz simply weren't allowed to play L.A. as physically as Boston was and that the refs played a big role in the Lakers' Game 5 victory. My only other beef with Hollinger is his claim that no one player on the Jazz is too indispensable. It's true that we are extremely deep, it's true that we have proven that we can withstand injuries to Boozer and AK and it's also true that losing Memo would hurt us a lot less now that we have Korver. All that being said, losing Deron for more than a game or two here or there would destroy our chances of getting the top seed, even if that prospect is somewhat less terrifying than it was last year now that we have Knight.

nghedman · Post #15 » by **nghedman** » Thu Oct 2, 2008 9:03 pm

Hollinger assumes from his data that the Jazz are a bad fouling team. Just to note he leaves out statistical variable of referees tendencies. I believe refs know the Jazz foul and hence they call more fouls on the Jazz. Refs also hate Sloan with a passion and stick it to his team whenever they can. Hollinger's numbers are true but reason behind them are anyones guess.

As I watch many many NBA games I see many other teams doing the same things the Jazz do on defense and NOT get the foul called. This supports my believe about refs and Sloan. Sloans loud mouth, cursing, yelling, and general harsh words for the referees are growing on the refs and his reputation in general is coming back to haunt him.

BarneyGumble · Post #16 » by **BarneyGumble** » Thu Oct 2, 2008 9:37 pm

Batronuj wrote:
Ok I can see how he can argue the above for games 1,2,3, and 6 MAYBE....but game 5 of that series was a total rook job by the refs and there's no two ways about it. I distinctly remember plays like Odom driving past nobody for a slam late in the fourth. An "and one" was called on Boozer, yet Boozer is nearly at the 3 point line. It was a phantom call, and not an isolated incident.

More importantly than OUR fouling, however, was that the Lakers GOT AWAY WITH just as brutal and physical of play. Remember Gasol shoving Okur out of the way to get an offensive rebound and a putback, again late in the fourth? Or how about Harpring taking a perfectly planted charge RIGHT IN FRONT of mob ref Delaney, and Delaney swallows his whistle. Well not 20 seconds later that same Delaney is calling Boozer for a questionable charge on the other end.

Total rook job. I believe the Jazz were the best team in the NBA last season. But we'll never know...

That game 5 on the road, specifically the fourth quarter was the worst officiating I have ever seen in a game ever and that is saying something. The Jazz had that game in the fourth and the Refs gave it to the Lakers. Had the Jazz won that it would have been game 6 in Utah with the Jazz up 3-2.

I agree 100%. Outsiders are quick to jump on me when I complain, citing that I am only crying about reffing. But the truth is, it almost looked fixed to me. We HAD those guys in game 5....and the refs TOOK it from us. And more than once. It wasnt like one honest mistake like the ref against the Chargers this year in Denver. It was repeated inconsistent calls, over and over, in favor of the Lakers...

I'm telling you...the same rules did not apply to the Lakers that applied to the Jazz. Its nearly impossible to think you can win a series like that.

Pai Gow · Post #17 » by **Pai Gow** » Thu Oct 2, 2008 10:19 pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKZa_Tpa1qA

keep in mind, all these calls are JUST in the 4th quarter..

erudite23 · Post #18 » by **erudite23** » Thu Oct 2, 2008 11:34 pm

I used to hate Hollinger, mainly because of his man-crush on Chris Paul (and subsequent poo-pooing of DW), but the guy has a very solid system and he backs his opinions up with historical data. Basically, he analizes from the premise that every situation or circumstance that comes up has also come up in the past in a different incarnation. That doesn't dictate what WILL happen, but from a probability standpoint, it makes sense to align oneself with the most likely outcome.

He is spot on with his analysis here. If we get our fouls down to even 5ht or 6th in the league, we will make a jump from barely-above-average defensively to around 8th or so. That should be enough to free our offense up to win games and series for us.

Ultimately, though, this year will come down to how we can match up with the Lakers in the playoffs. In my mind, this season is all about Utah and LA. Everyone else in the West is playing for 3rd place.

carrottop12 · Post #19 » by **carrottop12** » Fri Oct 3, 2008 12:41 am

AKsWill wrote:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKZa_Tpa1qA

keep in mind, all these calls are JUST in the 4th quarter..

That was amazing, what did that add up too, 8-12 points.

So awesome.

cjs55 · Post #20 » by **cjs55** » Fri Oct 3, 2008 1:24 pm

You have to understand why that game 5 made me realize that the league had fixed the series.

There are two evenly matched teams in a decisive game 5. The Jazz are on the road and go into the fourth quarter basically tied and with all of the momentum. All the refs need to do in such a tight series in such a circumstance is fix one quarter to dictate the outcome. That would be the infamous fourth quarter game 5. It's clear as day the refs see that if the Jazz win game 5 they will have a very good chance of winning the series. It's clear that if the Jazz lose game 5 they will have a very small chance of winning the series.

You might ask, well, why can't the refs just control game 6/game 7 to the leagues benefit?

This is far too obvious. First of all, refs can use home court advantage to cover up their terrible biased calls. This is precisely what happened in game 5. The free throw discrepency can simply be said to reflect home court advantage. Second, the less amount of time you make terrible calls to rig the game, the better, for obvious reasons. Fans and commentators will get more and more outraged, and begin serious commentary on national television about how the NBA is rigged. The media will still jump on the NBA's back if they get a good story.

A soft touch here and there is all you need if the basic building blocks are in place. That's exactly what we saw last year in game 5.

Oh, and I guarantee you if Boston had ever been close to losing to Atlanta at home at any point in the first round, the refs would have made sure that game went their way as well. The finals matchup was fixed, but since the two teams that made it there were very good the refs didn't have to do too much to make it happen (basically just game 5 in the jazz lakers series).

I'm not saying the Jazz would have won the series with fair officiating for sure, but the Jazz should have won game 5 by any objective measure. The refs flat out stole it, and the Jazz were by far the better team. No home court advantage the Jazz ever got can even come close to comparing the blatant rigging of that quarter.