Who Could the 2010 Cap Space Bring?

[shrink]

And why is that?

Because no owner is going to commit $80Mil to some guy he doesn't want, and no player is going to commit 5 years of his career in some place he doesn't want to be. If you really think that's a legit possibility you gotta take off the GM hat and join us back in the real world.

This general statement is untrue. If we signed Kobe Bryant to an $80 mil deal, and he didn't want to play here, why in the world would you think he wouldn't be a trade asset?

Players have trade value based on their contract and production, depending on the fit on the OTHER team, not on their current one.

I'm keeping my hat!

[shrink]

Incidentally, I think as people examine 2010 free agency, they have to admit we have little chance of bringing in a big time free-agent, or adding huge talent to the team. We are most likely to get big-time talent through trade, and that means acquiring assets that could legitimately bring back big-time talent.

For example, I think using 2009 cap space to grab a guy like Boozer would put that kind of asset on our team. There's no way of knowing if he'd be available, but I could see UTA being unwilling to trade him if they are in play-off contention, and Boozer more than happy to sign a max deal for 5 years. A big man putting up 21.1 PPG and 10.4 RPG is going to have value to some teams on a max deal. I'd be happy with skorff's deal of expirings, our pick back and Gordon, or a deal to get Kaman. Its certainly better than sitting on our financial asses and crossing our fingers while we wait for 2010.

We can hope some of our youth develop, but its a star league and it might take some "out-of-the-box" thinking to bring a star here from another team.

[casey]

And why is that?

Because no owner is going to commit $80Mil to some guy he doesn't want, and no player is going to commit 5 years of his career in some place he doesn't want to be. If you really think that's a legit possibility you gotta take off the GM hat and join us back in the real world.

This general statement is untrue. If we signed Kobe Bryant to an $80 mil deal, and he didn't want to play here, why in the world would you think he wouldn't be a trade asset?

Players have trade value based on their contract and production, depending on the fit on the OTHER team, not on their current one.

I'm not saying that a player wouldn't have trade value. I'm saying there's no chance of it happening.

I'm keeping my hat!

I knew you would be.

[shrink]

Because no owner is going to commit $80Mil to some guy he doesn't want, and no player is going to commit 5 years of his career in some place he doesn't want to be. If you really think that's a legit possibility you gotta take off the GM hat and join us back in the real world.

This general statement is untrue. If we signed Kobe Bryant to an $80 mil deal, and he didn't want to play here, why in the world would you think he wouldn't be a trade asset?

Players have trade value based on their contract and production, depending on the fit on the OTHER team, not on their current one.

I'm not saying that a player wouldn't have trade value. I'm saying there's no chance of it happening.

I guess we'll just have to disagree.

Taylor has taken financial risks before by laying out the biggest contract in NBA history. He's been willing to go over the lux before to bring in quality players. He's gambled on lesser players than this. Cap space only improves the team if it can be transmuted into talent, either through free agency or trade. I think its far riskier to pin the team's hopes on the competitive 2010 free agency than it would be to have the option to sign a guy like Carlos Boozer to a big deal, and then worry about trading him.

Taylor and McHale have said they'll make moves that make the team better, and I think this approach certainly does that.

[casey]

You make it sound like it's only our decision on a free agent signing.

Can you name me a time when this has happened? I would imagine it never has. Probably has never been seriously considered. It's something you would do in NBA Live 09, but is unrealistic in real life.

[theGreatRC]

I would target Joe Johnson or Brendan Haywood.

[andyhop]

You make it sound like it's only our decision on a free agent signing.

Can you name me a time when this has happened? I would imagine it never has. Probably has never been seriously considered. It's something you would do in NBA Live 09, but is unrealistic in real life.

I always used to do this in Championship Manager (soccer management game) as you can get the good players to sign with you as they come off contract and then flip them for large amounts of money afterwards.Never seen it done for real though.

[shrink]

You make it sound like it's only our decision on a free agent signing.

I'm not a fan of arguments that start with "you make it sound like" but regarding the free agent signing, I think that we'd have a much greater chance of a free agent choosing us in 2009 vs MEM and OKC than in 2010 vs a lot of good teams at bigger markets. Moreover, lets imagine a max deal is on the table in 2009 from us and MEM. MIN's just finished 22nd, MEM 29th, but Boozer is a better fit in MEM. We could say "We may trade you in a few months, but you're never getting out of MEM."

Can you name me a time when this has happened? I would imagine it never has. Probably has never been seriously considered. It's something you would do in NBA Live 09, but is unrealistic in real life.

I'm also not a fan of the argument "Nobody will do this because it hasn't been done before." This is a country of innovation -- a country where we press the rules to the limit, particularly when millions of dollars are on the line.

As I said before, Taylor has been willing to make big financial moves in the past (KG, Sprewell, Cassell, Brandon) if he thought it would improve the team. 2010 is loaded with red flags, and the worst scenario here is that we make an offer in 2009, its rejected, and we're still in place for the same plan in 2010. We have little pressure to overpay in 2009 for any free agent, unlike 2010 when so many teams will have max money.

I don't play NBA Live, but I'm not surprised it works in a simulation because it transforms cap space into talent on a team.

[LA_33]

Putting aside the fact that turning Cardinal into an expiring deal would require an asset much better than the Wolves should consider giving up, I don't think you're being remotely realistic about the chances of signing top-level guys who aren't great fits on the roster, and will have other good options. You're ignoring the fact that Miami and Portland will both have max cap space in 2009, for instance.

I think Boozer is almost certain to sign with Miami next summer, as he lives in the city in the offseason, and Riley supposedly loves him. If he doesn't go to Miami, he's re-signing with Utah, because he's the #2 option on a contender there.

I guess Marion could be a possibility, but he shot down the chance to join Pierce and Jefferson in Boston as part of a "KG-to-Phonix" deal, because he didn't want to play in a cold-weather city. I think that makes Minnesota a REALLY unlikely destination for him, and I can't see Taylor outbidding the market to chase a guy with a very questionable drive to win (he was happier with a bigger role on a terrible Miami team than he was as the 3rd option on a contender in Phoenix) who's going to be unhappy the minute he sets foot in the state once the weather turns. He's going to sign somewhere warm (I'm 100% convinced that Marion would choose both OKC and Memphis over the Wolves, because he cares more about the weather and getting lots of shots than how good the team is) or maybe in Portland, which is a more advanced team with a huge hole at SF, and also plays in a better climate than Minnesota.

[shrink]

I agree if MIA is an option, Boozer would prefer to go there, but its quite possible MIA will not be in the running. The Livingston signing actually put them slightly over the lux, and to sign Boozer, they need to get way under the salary cap of ..say .. $59 mil. That means going from $71.5 to $45.5 .. or cutting $26 mil.

Marion is widely considered to be the player who is most likely to be traded, and if MIA doesn't get all expirings back for him, and move some more space, they can't make an offer. They'll be at $52.5 mil in guaranteed contracts even if they let Marion expire and don't bring back DeQuan Cook at $1.4 mil, and they lose their 1st to us, because there's no way Blount's going to opt out of his $8 mil deal in 2009-10. The deal they'd need would be to trade Marion + Blount + Banks for expirings, and hope they don't have to pay their 2009 pick. Maybe they make it easier by trading Haslem for expiring in a seperate deal. Still, they need to move Blount and/or Banks to get far enough under the salary cap to make an offer, and what team has that kind of expirings to offer?

If Boozer really wanted to go to MIA, and do it on a max deal, it would be much smarter to have us sign him to the max deal, and trade him in December to Miami for Haslem + Dorell Wright's expirings + perks. Boozer wins, MIN wins, and MIA can trade Marion for talent on a longer deal, and then add Boozer on top next year.

The truth is, for either of these guys, the difference between coming here or not is all about getting paid. They would want a multi-year deal, so the amount of the first year is magnified over the life of the contract with 10.5% raises. Living in Minnesota for a few months would mean millions of dollars for these guys -- and I think they could tolerate a little cold for that.

[john2jer]

shrink, I love the ideas. Only problem is that this isn't a video game. If Kobe somehow becomes available to sign for the max, which I don't see how the Lakers wouldn't sign him to the max and they can actually give him a bigger contract, but Kobe actually gets some say in where he signs. Same for Boozer, or any other free agent.

Nobody in the NBA is going to sign a contract just so they can get traded 3 months later.

This does work really well on Madden, though. Beginning of the season you sign all the free agents to contracts without signing bonuses and then trade them to teams that need to fill that position for draft picks. Spend enough time with it and you can pick up a few extra first round picks. I love it.

[the_bruce]

Aim for picking up the natural front court compliment to Al and finding a wing who can play D and get to the rack should be the goals of this team. Brewer may be the wing we need. Love will never be the shot blocking presence, but he's so smart he could end up filling such a role. Also, Al should continue to improve on defense.

Unless theres a deal for Kaman, or a deal that aquires assets using this years capspace then the team should just stay put.

[john2jer]

If he wouldn't be 36 at the time, Marcus Camby would be a great center to add to the mix with Big Al and Baby Love. We could get him for less than 9 mil a year, leaving room to bring in a great wing defender that can get to the rack, maybe Latrell Sprewell will need to feed his family by then?

Although he's a nut case, Darko could probably be had for 7mil per year then. He'd only be 25, thus fitting in with the age range of the rest of our players. Maybe he'd settle down by then.

Or maybe Kwame Brown has a great year this year and doesn't pick up his option looking for a big contract. We could probably get him at 6-7mil per year and he's in the age range.

I can't believe I just said that. That's our best hope? Shoot me now.

That's only looking at free agent centers. Kaman or Bogut would be preferred, but it would have to be through trade.

[shrink]

I read some good news today -- well, at least for the Wolves.

Three teams are struggling financially, and expectations this year are for increased losses. There are rumors that Charlotte is even privately on the market, and as we've seen with MEM, that may mean cutting salaries to make the team easier to sell. The other two teams are MIL and IND.

These three teams all carry center options that would fit here. Okafor and Bogut would be particularly good fits, and IND has four guys that can play center if you include Hibbert.

However, I'll point out that we need to get these players through trade, not free agency.

[Tekkenlaw]

Joe Johnson is the main guy I would want. He would be a good fit.

[john2jer]

Joe Johnson is the main guy I would want. He would be a good fit.

Man if only we could have drafted a guy like Joe Johnson. Oh wait, we did, Brandon Roy.

Imagine an Oj Mayo and Brandon Roy backcourt? LOVELY!

[Devilzsidewalk]

are you serious, we've been stomping this preseason - clearly Love's locker-room chemistry factor is already paying dividends. Meanwhile the Grizzlies have been suckariffic. And Mayo is only beginning to realize his vast potential in getting his numbers at the expense of winning basketball.

[casey]

I'm not a fan of arguments that start with "you make it sound like" but regarding the free agent signing, I think that we'd have a much greater chance of a free agent choosing us in 2009 vs MEM and OKC than in 2010 vs a lot of good teams at bigger markets. Moreover, lets imagine a max deal is on the table in 2009 from us and MEM. MIN's just finished 22nd, MEM 29th, but Boozer is a better fit in MEM. We could say "We may trade you in a few months, but you're never getting out of MEM."

It wasn't an "argument", I was just pointing out how you omitted a huge part of it.

I'm also not a fan of the argument "Nobody will do this because it hasn't been done before." This is a country of innovation -- a country where we press the rules to the limit, particularly when millions of dollars are on the line.

Again, not really the argument I was making (and I'm with you on that not being a valid one). Though I don't think it can be ignored. Your suggest is ridiculous in the real world. It's not something that ever happens, for good reason. The bigger reason being that no player would ever sign a contract in that situation.

[andyhop]

If Boozer really wants to go to Miami ,then they possibly don't need to be below the cap to sign him.It seems like a Boozer-Marion double sign and trade could work for both teams (depending of course on Marion's demands)

Miami

PG
Wade
Beasley
Boozer
C

Utah

Williams
Brewer
Marion
AK47
Okur

[the_bruce]

meh darko via trade wouldnt be to bad but I wouldnt use 2010 capspace on him.