SI's opposing scout take on our Hawks

[LL Cool Scott]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/b ... /22/hawks/

I especially agree about how we will never be a championship contender until Marvin is moved to the bench and we get a legit 5 so Horford can truly blossom (and Smith can get out on the break).

[raleigh]

And then he goes on to contradict himself by saying Smith is a mismatch at the 4. Bottom-line - Smith at the 3 would only work if your center has real range to compensate for Smith's lack thereof.

[JoshB914]

Bottom line is that these columns are clearly not written by scouts. I remember the one from last year and it was pure BS just like this one. The guy offers no actualy "scouting insight."

[LL Cool Scott]

Smith is a mismatch for both 3's and 4's. But we can't contend with Smith and Horford as our two inside guys. They're just not big enough.

And I don't know why SI would lie about these really being scouts. What's the incentive for a major publication to risk their credibility for something like that?

[JoshB914]

How is anyone going to find out? There are a TON of scouts out there and they obviously aren't going to reveal their identity. If a scout wrote that, then he must be an aspiring journalist because this is just written like a regular preview but in the first person.

[High 5]

These anonymous scouts always make the dumbest comments. Joe is a 3rd option on a good team? Yeeeah...I can understand someone thinking he's not someone to build around, but he'd be at least the 2nd best player on nearly every team. And he has taken the last shot plenty of times.

[atl_fan]

It's ridiculous how much I disagreed with that "scout."

[conleyorbust]

I think we got into it last year about that guy's scout-ness and determined that he says stupid stuff annually (two years ago - Marv didn't have NBA athleticism or a jumper and was a risk to be out of the league) but is most likely a scout of some sort but he doesn't necessarilly scout every team.

Regardless, he fantastically innaccurate year-to-year.

Anyway, I think that players like Smith are better on the break when played at the 4. Guys like Marion and AK are decent examples but just think about it, who is Smith more likely to beat down the floor for a man advantage on the break: Richard Jefferson or Kevin Love?

As far as getting a 5, getting a replacement level 5 (Haywood through Kaman) isn't going to make us a better team considering we'd probably have to trade Marv. Getting a borderline AS like Bogut or Biedrins is going to take Smith or Horford, which is fine if thats your preference. Getting a star 5 who would actually make a difference (Yao, Dwight, Oden) is impossible.

Teams don't win because they have taller players, they win because their taller players are good.

[LL Cool Scott]

COB - Agree wholeheartedly with your assessment about our need for a solid 5 rather than just some stiff. Every year, some guy you wouldn't expect becomes available for cheap around the trading deadline. And this year we have a GREAT trading chip in Bibby's expiring contract. It's not outside the realm of possilibities that we could swap him for someone nice.

I disagree about Josh being able to get out on the break better at the 4. Any speed advantage he has gets negated by the fact that he has to stay inside and fight for defensive rebounds. You put him at the 3 and allow him to run free and he's one of the most dangerous weapons in the league in the open floor.

[conleyorbust]

COB - Agree wholeheartedly with your assessment about our need for a solid 5 rather than just some stiff. Every year, some guy you wouldn't expect becomes available for cheap around the trading deadline. And this year we have a GREAT trading chip in Bibby's expiring contract. It's not outside the realm of possilibities that we could swap him for someone nice.

I disagree about Josh being able to get out on the break better at the 4. Any speed advantage he has gets negated by the fact that he has to stay inside and fight for defensive rebounds. You put him at the 3 and allow him to run free and he's one of the most dangerous weapons in the league in the open floor.

I guess there's a chicken/egg thing but Marion is more natural 3 than Josh but when he moved to Miami, he stopped busting it on the break. Is it because he wasn't beating his man down the court every time or is it because he wasn't playing with Nash anymore? I'd say both. Same with AK47, who is also less of a natural PF than Smith.

I agree that a guy will break free, but I'm not counting on Bibby being enough in and of himself. I guess it depends on the guy but Gasol is a) less of a C than Horford and b) not really typical of dealings with talented 7 footers. Bibby is a better example of getting a guy for expirings at the deadline. Mo Williams-caliber players are the types you can pick up with an expiring generally.

I'm not saying its impossible, just not something I'd count on.

[HoopsGuru25]

LL is right...the Hawks have had opportunities to get centers for virtually nothing but have wasted them. Obviously players like Howard and Yao aren't going to get traded but the Hawks could have easily gotten a player like Chandler,Haywood,Kaman,or Nene when their value was low(in Nene's case it still is). They instead wasted their cap space on Speedy and Lo and then let Shelden's value plummet after the whole world knew he was going to get any playing time after we drafted Horford.

[conleyorbust]

LL is right...the Hawks have had opportunities to get centers for virtually nothing but have wasted them. Obviously players like Howard and Yao aren't going to get traded but the Hawks could have easily gotten a player like Chandler,Haywood,Kaman,or Nene when their value was low(in Nene's case it still is). They instead wasted their cap space on Speedy and Lo and then let Shelden's value plummet after the whole world knew he was going to get any playing time after we drafted Horford.

So having Speedy injured on the bench is a waste but having Nene injured on the bench eating twice as much cap space is a good investment?

When could we have gotten Kaman? For what? Who would we have traded for Chandler?

[HoopsGuru25]

So having Speedy injured on the bench is a waste but having Nene injured on the bench eating twice as much cap space is a good investment?

Well...that's hindsight. However Nene would have actually been worth the gamble. People his size who are good defenders and still have the athleticism to play in an uptempo game don't come around that often. He also doesn't have any injuries that will NEVER go away like Speedy does.

When could we have gotten Kaman? For what?

Kaman was considered a bad contract at this time last year although I admit I didn't(and still don't)want him because he's not a strong defender. However that doesn't explain Billy didn't shop Shelden around for an actual center after it was clear he was going to be playing behind both Horford and Zaza. This team has yet to acquire a defensive center sincne BK took over in 03.

Who would we have traded for Chandler?

The Bulls GAVE Chandler away. The Hawks were one of the only teams in the league who could have just absorbed Chandler's salary w/o sending Chicago anything back(which they probably would have preferred). I think it's pretty pathetic that Knight wasted his cap space on Speedy,AJ,and Wright when an athletic 7 footer who plays D like Chandler was basically his for the taking.

[JoshB914]

We could probably could have gotten Chandler but passed. BK made much worse moves than that though, let's remember what a disaster Chandler was in Chicago. It's not like he was a big time C when he hit the market.

Shelden was never worth anything by the end of his rookie year. No one wanted the guy as anything other than a throw-in (Bibby trade). Thank god we could get rid of that waste of space...

[conleyorbust]

... and Speedy being a "waste" is also hindsight, right? I mean, our need for a point guard was as pronounced if not moreso than our need for a big. Speedy was a bad investment but he had at least "proven" he was a near starting caliber player. Retrospectively, either would be a bad move.

So we could have absorbed Chandler's contract, I'll give you that. You have to take risks to win though, right? Some pay off, like getting an athletic finisher and pairing him with a dynamic point guard (Tyson wouldn't be the player he is without Paul tossing him oops for a third of his points) and some don't like giving Eddy Curry 9mil a year or giving Jerome James whatever he got or Pryz whatever he got or Mihm or Kwame or Etan or Foyle or Nazr or.... the road to mediocrity is paved with overpaid centers.

My point wasn't that the Hawks couldn't, or can't, get a solid center. My point was that the type of C that would make it worth it to change the Marv-Smith-Al dynamic is going to take one of Horford or Smith, if that. Maybe we get lucky with a Pau type situation, of course Pau was on the block for a long time, him being on the move somewhere wouldn't have been news if it weren't news for being the most lopsided deal since Shaq left Orlando as a FA.

Our problem isn't a lack of a center. Al can play center. Our problem is a lack of talent. An upgrade in talent anywhere in our our lineup would push us to the next level but if we traded Bibby for a guy like Haywood (provided he was healthy) just for the size, we would be a worse team even though we'd be bigger.

[HoopsGuru25]

... and Speedy being a "waste" is also hindsight, right? I mean, our need for a point guard was as pronounced if not moreso than our need for a big. Speedy was a bad investment but he had at least "proven" he was a near starting caliber player. Retrospectively, either would be a bad move.

I don't think Speedy was ever starter caliber. He was a good backup...however we still would have been screaming for Knight to draft a point guard regardless of if Speedy did work out.

So we could have absorbed Chandler's contract, I'll give you that. You have to take risks to win though, right? Some pay off, like getting an athletic finisher and pairing him with a dynamic point guard (Tyson wouldn't be the player he is without Paul tossing him oops for a third of his points) and some don't like giving Eddy Curry 9mil a year or giving Jerome James whatever he got or Pryz whatever he got or Mihm or Kwame or Etan or Foyle or Nazr or.... the road to mediocrity is paved with overpaid centers.

I understand there are risks but you have to take those sometimes...particularly when you are near the bottom in defense and defensive rebounding every year. A team with an Al Harrington and Zaza Pachulia pf/c combination is going to get killed inside nearly every game. That has gotten better now that Smith is at the 4 and Horford has cut down on Zaza's minutes but the Hawks were still a below average defensive team last year(and downright terrible with Bibby) but I still would like to see the other 25-30 minutes in front court besides Horford/Smith being used on defense especially considering how undersized both are.

[conleyorbust]

I understand there are risks but you have to take those sometimes...particularly when you are near the bottom in defense and defensive rebounding every year. A team with an Al Harrington and Zaza Pachulia pf/c combination is going to get killed inside nearly every game. That has gotten better now that Smith is at the 4 and Horford has cut down on Zaza's minutes but the Hawks were still a below average defensive team last year(and downright terrible with Bibby) but I still would like to see the other 25-30 minutes in front court besides Horford/Smith being used on defense especially considering how undersized both are.

Just a point of fact, we were around the 10th best defense for the first half of the season or so until the Bibby trade... we were just a piss poor offense (don't forget that Josh had a very weak first month and a half and Joe had a pretty weak first 4 months). So I think we could be a legit D if we had some more balance there and a big off the bench.

Anyway, I don't disagree with you about that, I'd love a Diop/Kwame off the bench even if we had to overpay for him. What I'm saying is that its a lot easier for pundits, fans, etc. to say that the team needs "an impact big" to that could push Smith to the 3 and Al to the 4 (if you believe Smith can play the 3) and Marv to the bench than it is to land a big with that much talent without giving up Smith or Horford. Which I'd be willing to do for the right C, but he'd have to be damn good.

Taking a risk and signing a question mark center to an $8.5m/year deal burns teams more often than it helps them. Its easy to point out the ones that worked out for teams - Chandler, Kaman(?), ? but its more likely to find the ones that didn't, that being all the rest of them.

Don't get me wrong, we'd be a better team with Yao at the 5 or Varejao off the bench, its just hard to do it.

[bruno sundov]

These anonymous scouts always make the dumbest comments. Joe is a 3rd option on a good team? Yeeeah...I can understand someone thinking he's not someone to build around, but he'd be at least the 2nd best player on nearly every team. And he has taken the last shot plenty of times.

CLE would love to have him!!!

I think as Bibby goes, the team goes. What do you guys think?

[High 5]

The Hawks win despite Bibby all the time. (tonight for example) The team goes as Joe and Josh go. Mainly Joe. We don't lose many games where he plays great.

[JoshB914]

It's important to remember that we were +23 with Bibby on the floor tonight. He didnt play well at all but at least we can run our offense and get out in transition with him in the game.