POR/PHO?

[tsherkin]

What, no gamethread?

But it's only 4.5 hours away!

[ChargerMan]

Suns need to play a more post orientated game, I like how Porter utilized the bench in the 1st game, he threw that out the last game, Suns need to get back to getting starters rest and playing a bigger lineup. Shaq and Amare need to get the ball in the post every posession they're in the game

[b-ball forever]

lol

I saw there was a tsherkin gamethread up and expected to find a detailed long ass post complete with cunning gameplan, accurate player stat predictions, and thorough matchup analysis telling us all bout how Aldridge was gonna go off on Amare and Shaq was gonna clown their frontcourt given that Oden is out...

Only 2 ballboy-like sentences

You're slacking!

[-SDU-]

cant be around for the first few games of the season, but ill get into regular season form too

sportsbet over here has the blazers at $4.15 and the suns $1.18 - is there something i dont know or should i just go ahead and put some money on the blazers.....

[Gorilla Warfare]

i am glad to say that i will be at this game tonight! Im excited to see this game. Portland fresh off a win against the Sterns last night will either amp them up for tonight or tire them out, hopefully tire them out...

[nevetsov]

cant be around for the first few games of the season, but ill get into regular season form too

sportsbet over here has the blazers at $4.15 and the suns $1.18 - is there something i dont know or should i just go ahead and put some money on the blazers.....

Man there are some really nice multibet options today.. I wouldn't be surprised if Minnesota beat Dallas as well.

[tsherkin]

lol

I saw there was a tsherkin gamethread up and expected to find a detailed long ass post complete with cunning gameplan, accurate player stat predictions, and thorough matchup analysis telling us all bout how Aldridge was gonna go off on Amare and Shaq was gonna clown their frontcourt given that Oden is out...

Only 2 ballboy-like sentences

You're slacking!

Actually, it was more of an inquisitory thread than an actual gamethread. I'm not a usual participant in the board the way the guys who usually make them are, so I just thought I'd kick someone until they did it, then delete my thread.

That didn't fly, apparently.

As far as my analysis, here it is:

Portland vs. Phoenix - 11/01/08

Blake, Roy, Outlaw, Aldridge, Przybilla

vs.

Nash, Bell, Barnes, Amare, Shaq

The first problem I see is Roy.

Bell has a rep as a good defender and he is, but Roy's deal isn't as a major scorer. He's averaging 20 ppg so far this season, but that's come from two WILDLY different games; a 14-pointer and a 26-point burst. He does most of his damage setting up his teammates and actually playing defense. He's averaging 3 steals a game so far this season in the early-going. Roy will be disruptive and is a key to Portland's offense. If the Suns didn't suck defensively, then they could theoretically attack him with a press and try to trap him, but since they aren't going to do that, he's going to get into the paint and create for his shooters, as well as for the bigs.

Blake is a steady playmaker and a very good shooter. I'd expect him to score around 10 to 15 points and mostly burn us with kickout threes and some patient resetting of the offense.

Outlaw is James Worthy for Portland, a finisher. Not a great creator but Hell if he hasn't learned how to hit the three these last two years. He's a major threat in transition and on the set kickout jumper.

Aldridge will burn us with some low post offense and a steady diet of drives and mid-range jumpers. I'd expect 20-25 from Aldridge tonight if he isn't in foul trouble from Amare dunking.

Przybilla will rebound and defend well, and probably have an oop and some FTs. He's not a scorer and doesn't pretend to be one.

This is a winnable game; the Suns outgun the Blazers pretty badly without Oden.

If the Suns are smart, they ride the Nash/Amare pick-and-roll until this one's in the books, mixing in a lot of shots for Shaq. Honestly, they should just open the throttle and run Portland to death, because the Blazers like to play a slow-down game and doing so themselves just feeds into Portland's strengths.

I'd expect Hill to be able to score 15 points or so off the bench, too.

This one SHOULD be a high-scoring affair. The Suns need to just get their defensive boards and BOOK it up the court. Only Outlaw can really match them athletically and he'll be insufficient as a transition defender to handle Nash, Amare and Hill. Prz won't be much against Shaq, either.

I call a 7-point Suns win.

[rsavaj]

If the Suns are smart, they ride the Nash/Amare pick-and-roll until this one's in the books, mixing in a lot of shots for Shaq. Honestly, they should just open the throttle and run Portland to death, because the Blazers like to play a slow-down game and doing so themselves just feeds into Portland's strengths.

I'd love for that to happen, but Porter is trying to minimize the PnRs b/c he says that it wears Nash down, and from what I've gathered he views a run and gun/uptempo system as a gateway towards "bad shots", hence Raja being so 'wtf am I supposed to ?' over the last 2 games.

[Krush32]

Expecting alot Aldridge on the post vs Amare, so Amare needs to step up prove he can play D. Portland doesn't have anyone one on the active roster that can deal with Shaq, and would like to see him go at it right away. We might see Batum guarding Nash like they put him on Tony Parker last night. Lets see a little bit more of Dragic tonight too. GO SUNS!

[tsherkin]

Porter is stupid if he says the PnR "wears Nash down."

9 times out of 10, Nash hovers behind the screen, then throws a bounce pass to Amare. That's a lot easier on him than anything else they do, like Nash's dribble penetration, get stuck on the rim with a live dribble, fight back outside and reset play.

[b-ball forever]

lol

I saw there was a tsherkin gamethread up and expected to find a detailed long ass post complete with cunning gameplan, accurate player stat predictions, and thorough matchup analysis telling us all bout how Aldridge was gonna go off on Amare and Shaq was gonna clown their frontcourt given that Oden is out...

Only 2 ballboy-like sentences

You're slacking!

Actually, it was more of an inquisitory thread than an actual gamethread. I'm not a usual participant in the board the way the guys who usually make them are, so I just thought I'd kick someone until they did it, then delete my thread.

That didn't fly, apparently.

As far as my analysis, here it is:

Portland vs. Phoenix - 11/01/08

Blake, Roy, Outlaw, Aldridge, Przybilla

vs.

Nash, Bell, Barnes, Amare, Shaq

The first problem I see is Roy.

Bell has a rep as a good defender and he is, but Roy's deal isn't as a major scorer. He's averaging 20 ppg so far this season, but that's come from two WILDLY different games; a 14-pointer and a 26-point burst. He does most of his damage setting up his teammates and actually playing defense. He's averaging 3 steals a game so far this season in the early-going. Roy will be disruptive and is a key to Portland's offense. If the Suns didn't suck defensively, then they could theoretically attack him with a press and try to trap him, but since they aren't going to do that, he's going to get into the paint and create for his shooters, as well as for the bigs.

Blake is a steady playmaker and a very good shooter. I'd expect him to score around 10 to 15 points and mostly burn us with kickout threes and some patient resetting of the offense.

Outlaw is James Worthy for Portland, a finisher. Not a great creator but Hell if he hasn't learned how to hit the three these last two years. He's a major threat in transition and on the set kickout jumper.

Aldridge will burn us with some low post offense and a steady diet of drives and mid-range jumpers. I'd expect 20-25 from Aldridge tonight if he isn't in foul trouble from Amare dunking.

Przybilla will rebound and defend well, and probably have an oop and some FTs. He's not a scorer and doesn't pretend to be one.

This is a winnable game; the Suns outgun the Blazers pretty badly without Oden.

If the Suns are smart, they ride the Nash/Amare pick-and-roll until this one's in the books, mixing in a lot of shots for Shaq. Honestly, they should just open the throttle and run Portland to death, because the Blazers like to play a slow-down game and doing so themselves just feeds into Portland's strengths.

I'd expect Hill to be able to score 15 points or so off the bench, too.

This one SHOULD be a high-scoring affair. The Suns need to just get their defensive boards and BOOK it up the court. Only Outlaw can really match them athletically and he'll be insufficient as a transition defender to handle Nash, Amare and Hill. Prz won't be much against Shaq, either.

I call a 7-point Suns win.

So tsherkin's account has not gotten hacked into by a random scrub, the board is safe for the night!


Yeah, we def needa go hardcore on the PnR. The Blazers were pretty much incapable of guarding the Parker/Duncan PnR last night.

One area we should have a significant avantage on is the boards. Shaq/Amare/Barnes makes a pretty scary rebounding combo, and Aldridge is a pretty bad rebounder.
They're a team that should take care of the ball pretty well and not turnover too much (unlike us), so we'll really have to exploit the rebounding advantage.

Blake is a bad defender so Nash should have his way with him most the time.
While Outlaw's shot has been falling his D has been pretty bad the first 2 games too. He's had trouble sticking with his man, so Barnes and Hill should be able to beat him off the dribble when we need them.

We might see Batum guarding Nash like they put him on Tony Parker last night.

They won't be able to do that too often tho. Nash is starting and Batum comes off the bench, so they shudn't be on the court @ the same time too often.

[tsherkin]

So tsherkin's account has not gotten hacked into by a random scrub, the board is safe for the night!

ROFLMAO!

One area we should have a significant avantage on is the boards. Shaq/Amare/Barnes makes a pretty scary rebounding combo, and Aldridge is a pretty bad rebounder.

It's not that he's bad... it's that he's traditionally a mid-range big, so he isn't usually where most of the boards go. He's almost never in the golden triangle, so it's hard for him to be a really dominant rebounder. He's not great fundamentally, but he's not BAD. Remember, this is a guy who averaged about 8 boards per 36 last year, playing next to Przybilla in a team that was second-last in pace. Aside from guys who played few minutes (Josh McRoberts), LMA's TRB% was third on the team behind Joel and Frye, which isn't great or even really good for a guy his size but it's not outright bad.

Blake is a bad defender so Nash should have his way with him most the time.

Blake isn't a bad defender, but Nash should STILL have his way because Nash is really good. He's got an underrated handle, one of the best shots in the game and he's an incredible passer. Plus, he's got Barnes/Hill, Amare and Shaq, so it's not like the Blazers are going to be able to double intelligently.

If Porter is smart (and apparently he is not), Nash will spend most of the game feeding Shaq and Amare; Shaq on the block, Amare on the wing moving towards the rim (go, go PnR... "wears him down" my ***).

While Outlaw's shot has been falling his D has been pretty bad the first 2 games too. He's had trouble sticking with his man, so Barnes and Hill should be able to beat him off the dribble when we need them.

For sure, Outlaw's value is as a finisher, but you can't ignore that, he can get hot in a hurry and cancel out his defensive failings, especially if Roy is clicking.

[tsherkin]

Unsurprisingly, the first bucket for the Blazers comes from LMA... sigh.

EDIT: Heh, as I moan, Phoenix runs off a nice little run with a Barnes three, a Shaq pass and a bucket from Bell.

EDIT 2: Shaq looking solid early on.

[tsherkin]

Err... I was saying?

The Suns have just ripped off the points lately. Bell hit a three and then Nash hit a pair of shots...

LMA is predictably torching Amare, but the Suns are hitting more efficiently and are hitting 3s, so they're outpacing the Blazers for the moment.

I'm not thrilled that Amare has one shot and that the other four guys all have 2 or more... but Barnes and Bell are hitting kickouts and it's tough to call out Nash and Shaq for taking shots, so...

I guess they really are going away from the PnR.

[tsherkin]

And off goes Barnes and a three from Nash and BOOM, 10-point lead.

[nashill]

great offense but i cant see the improved defensE?

[suns32]

Mohawk for Diaw.

[tsherkin]

Sigh.

From 10-point lead to 1-point deficit. Ah, Phoenix...

Everyone but Amare looks great on offense, among the starting 5. Bench looks tepid.

WTF with Portland? Really strong bench performance. LMA quieting down, Blake shooting well, Roy not so much.

They just quietly grinded it out, as usual.

Phoenix's defense just isn't there.

[suns32]

Our bench is getting murdered.

[nashill]

looks like dragic isnt really a point guard