Convince Me That I Am Wrong About Ray Allen

[Pogue Mahone]

[Sidebar discussion in the Detroit game thread. Split out to make it easier to respond and follow.]

Tell me why I am wrong about Ray Allen. Let go of the hyperbole and explain, concisely, why Ray Allen, in his current role, is worth the outlay of duckets that the Celtics are paying him. Explain why that money couldn't be better spent.

I will start off by replying to as many of the comments I can get to while I am able (currently monitoring a reload of a schema but I will get to as many as possible.)

And please keep the Das Celticsbloggen and Fuhrer Clark level of analysis where it belongs.

[Pogue Mahone]

KG came over because Danny traded for RA.

Right. Garnett was the prime target. It was only after being rebuffed by Garnett that Ainge went after Ray. I am of the belief that Ray was an attractive piece, under those circumstances, because it allowed the Celtics and Danny Ainge to retain the majority of the pieces that were desirable to other teams.

To wit:

Al Jefferson, Theo Ratliff's contract, Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins were all retained.

What was moved was a #5 pick in an overrated draft (in the sense that it wasn't as top heavy as many were saying) and two players who had starting experience. We can argue all day about the value of the two players that were included but it is really irrelevant. Considering Wally's injury history and contract situation combined with the soon to be expiring rookie contract of Delonte, it was an extremely cheap price to pay for an established veteran star player. Ray is very talented; I never said he wasn't. The fact of the matter of is, from my viewpoint, Ray was acquired for a pittance.

Now, my contention, as stated above, is that Ray was a fall-back plan and not the original target. He was acquired as much for his personal relationship with Garnett and his reputation as he was for what he brings to the table. I honestly believe that. Ainge had to find a way to assuage KG and Ray was a way to certainly do that.

As far as Ray's game since he has been here, though, Ray hasn't been all that. In fact, as I have stated in the past, Ray's value, on a minute-to-minute basis last season was less than not only Pierce and Garnett but Rondo and Perkins, as well. He didn't impact games on a consistent basis. Sure, he had his moments but most great players do. And by impact, I don't mean "score a lot of points" (though that can certainly play into it, too.)

Now let's be a little honest here... Ray had a good game a few days ago and so far today... he is outplaying both Paul and Kevin... scoring wise. I'm still not sure what you have against Ray but Ray has a guaranteed contract and thus must be paid. Regardless of what you think his "value" is. I could make the argument that over half of the NBA players aren't worth the ink they signed with... Blount comes to mind...

Yes, Ray does have good scoring games. Great scorers do. The problems occur on the Celtics when Ray Allen is looking for his shots. I would argue that that is usually a pretty good indicator that Pierce, Rondo and Garnett will be off. I suppose it can be argued a chicken-egg type thing so I will just leave it as that.

[The Rondo Show]

Arguing that Ray Allen is overpaid at over $15M a year and that the money could be better spent hypothetically is A LOT different than claiming the Celtics did well in spite of Ray Allen last year.

If you chose to go with what you are currently saying in this thread elsewhere, I don't think many, if any, would have a problem with what you are saying. You chose to act like Ray Allen completely sucks and has a negative impact on the court instead and I think that's all anyone disagrees with.

Is he overpaid? Yes, but he's still a very good player and the Celtics definitely did not win a championship in spite of Ray Allen.

[Pogue Mahone]

Why are you getting so worked up about his salary? He's still an incredibly productive player and he won't be on the books for much longer. And how exactly do you determine how much money a player deserves based on his role on the team? If the Celtics had traded for Michael Redd instead of Ray Allen, would you still be complaining about paying the third option on offense max money?

It's not that I am so worked about the Celtics paying that kind of money; I get worked up about them paying that kind of money for that kind of performance when the money could be better spent. And yes, I realize that Ray isn't on the books for much longer. I would argue, coming straight from a Championship, his value will not be any higher until close to the trading deadline of 2009-10. I think there are a myriad of deals involving Ray Allen that could be done which would make the Celtics a better team. And frankly, that is all I care about.

As far as your critique of Ray's game goes, you're way off base.

That all comes down to a matter of opinion, though, right?

-His "off-the-ball floor awareness" is excellent. He uses screens exceptionally well, and he has a strong sense of spacing.

You honestly think Ray has a strong sense of spacing? I just can't see it. I see a player looking for soft spots in the defense to find his own shots. For instance, when Ray isn't involved in the play, he often disrupts the flow because of his penchant for poor space discipline. No, Ray tries to get open and therein lies the rub. The main benefit of a floor spreader is that he draws his man away from the ball. Ray knows how to get open for Ray; I don't think he knows how to provide space for teammates.

Another example is when Ray is feeding the post from the foul-line extended all the way to the corner. He hesitates. He allows his man to collapse on the post before realizing, "Gee, maybe I should move." Now, how is that space discipline and showing good off the ball awareness?

-Paul Pierce went from being an above average defender to a GREAT defender last season. Ray Allen went from being a poor defender to an average defender. He doesn't have the size to guard a guy like Joe Johnson...But other than that, he can be trusted to hold his own defensively against most 2's. I'm not a big fan of PER stats, but he comes out quite well defensively. Bottom line, the effort is most certainly there, and the Celtics team defense has his back if and when things break down. Anyway that you look at it, he's no longer a piss poor defender.

To be honest, I was surprised at how well Ray defended last year. I really was. It doesn't dismiss the fact that he is a weak link defensively. I would be fine with his defense, too, if he was playing to his role on offense. I don't believe he is.

-It's a little odd that Ray never looks to drive to the hoop when he's initiating the pick and roll game, but at least he runs them in a manner that gets a wide open shot for KG. If the coaches didn't like the way he runs his two man game, I'm sure they'd have put a stop to it by now.

My theory is that Doc uses Ray as the point man in the pick game, at times, to get Ray going offensively. The problem arises when he dribbles aimlessly for 12 seconds before getting a Ray shot. Or that he has a tendency to completely ignore the picker when they make a dive to the front of the tin. Really, if I am an opposing team, I make sure the ball gets in Ray Allen's hands, I put a decent defender with length on him and I pack the lane. The ball in Ray's hands means it's not in Rondo's, KG's or Pierce's.

Additionally, in playing Ray as the point man in the pick game, because of Ray's tendencies, the Celtics are playing essentially 3-on-5 at the offensive end. Rajon is a better distributor and he sets up teammates for easy baskets. You are playing to Rajon's weaknesses by asking him to play off the ball. Also, by totally ignoring Powe, Perkins and even Big Burger when they release from the pick, Ray has essentially removed them from the game on the offensive end of the floor.

-The only problem with his catch and shoot game is that he doesn't take enough of them inside the 3-point line. Last year he shot 50 percent on long 2-pointers, making him one of just 10 players with at least 100 attempts to hit half his shots from that range.

See, I think this comes down to perspective. Ray is all-time elite at coming off picks in catch-and-shoot situations. He is not an elite catch-and-shoot player off the spot up. The inference here is that Ray is involved as part of the play in the first instance and, in the second, when asked to play completely off the ball and to provide space, he is just average.

Another thing, which I didn't mention, is that traditionally Paul Pierce is a money player operating at the top of the key on the left hand side. Last season and for the early part of this year, Ray Allen has taken the majority of his shots from .... the left side. One of the reasons for Pierce's struggles with shooting the ball at times is the **** that occurs with Ray floating around on the left side instead of drawing his man away from Pierce. What it amounts to, imo, is that Ray is playing passive aggressively. It is like he is too stubborn to subjugate himself for the betterment of the team. I don't think Ray is intentionally trying to subvert Pierce or anything.

I just think that Ray is a bit set in his ways and unable to consistently play off the ball when the ball isn't in his hands. He tends to gravitate to the same spots on the floor, whether he was playing with Posey, Pierce or Tony Allen. If you look at the NBA historically, it happens to tons of scorers, especially those that shoot from range. Ray has the talent to be much better in this role but for whatever reason is unable to adapt his game to fit the Celtics best needs, imo.

Now, if Ray was playing in the same manner as Eddie House, as a pure catch-and-shoot guy, and then allow him to open it up when Pierce and Garnett are off the floor, that would be cool with me. I just don't see that happening.

The one aspect of Ray's game that has been awful since he arrived in Boston is when the Celtics get out and run. For such a heady player, and a guy who is capable of making some great passes, he's absolutey terrible on the break. He's a turnover waiting to happen on 3 on 2's and 2 on 1's.

While I tend to agree, I think that is team wide problem, to an extent. I think they need to get the ball in the hands of Rajon and, if he ever plays, Pruitt.

You wrote earlier that the Celtics won last year in spite of Ray Allen. What they really proved is that they're capabale of winning when he doesn't play well. Of course that can also be said of Paul Pierce and KG. And therein lies the beauty of the big 3. You have 3 players who are capable of winning a game for you on any given night. All 3 players are explosive enough to beat you on their own, and if more than one of them comes to play on the same night, look out.

I certainly respect this viewpoint and, in fact, it was the perspective I embraced when envisioning the trio during the summer and when they first suited up in Rome. In the early going to the season, when the C's came out like gangbusters, Ray was indeed playing as a more traditional off the ball threat. After he started to struggle (I believe it was sometime around December, I will check later), he started to revert to look-for-his-own-shot Ray. It was then that I started to realize that the offense (as compared to what one should have reasonably expected, given the personnel) was severely under-performing and Ray was a big reason why.

The reason the Celtics achieved what they did was because of an all-time great defensive performance (as compared to it's peers.) They were an elite defensive team that struggled offensively, at times. Sure, all teams tend to struggle. How is it that with all the offensive firepower the Celtics possessed, they only had the 9th ranked offense? Do you know, there has only been one team since 1980 that won a title with an offense that ranked outside of the top-10. That team was the 2004 Pistons, who, like the Celtics, had an elite defense. And to be honest, that Pistons team was just hitting it's stride when the playoffs arrived because of the deadline deal for Sheed.

Moral of the story? Elite offense usually trumps elite defense. Really, you need both. Those playoff scares last year shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone. Sure, the Celtics had a great defense. They almost missed the brass ring, a couple times, because of an offense that tends to sputter when ball is taken out of the hands of the playmakers (Rondo, KG and Pierce.)

Do you actually doubt that Ray can carry the team when PP or KG don't have it going?

I don't doubt that Ray Allen is a talented scorer. I doubt that he can make his teammates better by consistently providing space. I just don't have faith in his ability to play off the ball if he is not involved.

[Pogue Mahone]

Arguing that Ray Allen is overpaid at over $15M a year and that the money could be better spent hypothetically is A LOT different than claiming the Celtics did well in spite of Ray Allen last year.

No, I seriously think they won in spite of Ray. Ray has been performing at a starter level since he has been with the Celtics. Great. The problem is, if he isn't scoring, it usually means he isn't bringing anything else to the table. Additional problems arise when Ray is looking for his offense, too, because I am of the belief that means Pierce, Rondo and Garnett are going to struggle (usually.)

If you chose to go with what you are currently saying in this thread elsewhere, I don't think many, if any, would have a problem with what you are saying. You chose to act like Ray Allen completely sucks and has a negative impact on the court instead and I think that's all anyone disagrees with.

While I wouldn't go so far as to say he is a complete negative, I will say a couple things, though.

First, Ray's impact is overstated to the point that this mythical hero that rescued the Celtics franchise from impending doom stuff is beyond silly. If not for being a veteran with the cache and track record of being a scorer combined with the simple fact that Celtics didn't have anyone to reasonably replace him with, Ray would have often found himself seated in his warm-ups after the defensive breakdowns, ignoring W-I-D-E open teammates and general ineptitude happened.

Secondly, a SG, with size, who can shoot consistently on the spot-up from the outside and play better defense isn't very difficult to find.

In fact, our starters would be better off with a Matt Freakin Carroll. For one, Matt Carroll kills people from the right hand side of the court. That would allow Pierce to revert to his normal deadly self attacking from the top of the key on the left side. Secondly, it's not Matt Carroll for Ray Allen. It would be Matt Carroll ++ for Ray Allen. The problem becomes finding the correct deal, which would allow the Celtics to also acquire the proper pieces to round out the roster. Now, Matt Carroll isn't ideal but the point shouldn't be lost on anyone.

Is he overpaid? Yes, but he's still a very good player and the Celtics definitely did not win a championship in spite of Ray Allen.

As I stated in a previous post, we won because of defense. Our offense tended to sputter at it's worst with the ball in Ray Allen's hands. I am convinced it's not a coincidence. I honestly believe that we won in spite of Ray Allen. Sure, Ray got KG here. Thanks for indirectly helping, Ray.

Lets not get caught up in silliness either, though. The fact Ray Allen played so many minutes last year and that there was no real scoring threat to replace him obfuscates his real impact. Playing with Perkins, Garnett, Pierce and Rondo makes Ray look much, much better than he is defensively. The Celtics, without Ray, were absolutely nasty defensively. Now that Tony Allen appears to be recovered, with the aid of Leon, there is scoring off the bench.

Ideally, Ray shouldn't be playing more than 30 mpg, imo (unless there is foul trouble/injury/whatever.) If he is providing proper spacing, the offense will be there because of all the attention that Pierce and KG draw. Additionally, Rondo is very good at driving and finding open players for the kick-out. Ray needs to trust his teammates and he needs to make his teammates better. I just don't see it happening consistently because once Ray struggles, he looks for his own offense. The ball and player movement grinds to a halt when that happens and the entire offense goes through long droughts.

BTW, I will be replying to your post from the other thread, as well.

[Fencer reregistered]

I tend to agree. Let's consider the main differences between Ray Allen's game and Eddie House's.

1. Allen is much better at taking it to the hoop.
2. Allen is about House's equal at spot-up shooting. (House misses some too.)
3. They are about equal as defenders inch-for-inch, but Allen has more inches.
4. House is more reliable as a quasi-PG than Allen is.

House is a decent reserve. Allen is a better player than House. He's a decent starter. But he's not necessarily the third-best player on the team.

[IgotCrossed]

Before you argue any more about Ray Allen being over paid please at least list other players (or combinations) that you would think would be better for the dollar. You've called him a great player several times already so I don't understand the complaint. You're making many points with no standard, aside from talking about Matt Carroll which is mind boggling to me.

[Pogue Mahone]

Ray shutdown Rip Hamilton, holding him to 3 points and 0 field goals, scored a very efficient 17 points with 8 boards and was a team high (by far) +23. Looks like Ray played a pretty damn complete game to me.

Yes, Ray had a good game. How often does he hit the glass like that? Don't you think it had more to do with playing 10 of his 38+ minutes with Glen Davis? You know, the Glen Davis that had 1 defensive rebound in close to 20 minutes of play. Now, I will give Big Burger the benefit of the doubt and say that he was blocking out (he was absolutely terrible last year as a defensive rebounder and save for two games this year, he has been terrible as well.)

And as far as the +23, in the first part of the 2nd QTR, Tony the Tiger came to play. Ray had two points, from the line, and missed his one shot of the quarter. He played the entire quarter. In fact, for close to 7 MP of the 2nd QTR, a run that was boosted by the aforementioned Tony Allen (with a boost from Leon) left the unit at +10.

Perkins replaced Big Burger with 5:09 left in the 2nd QTR. All starters on the floor except for Pierce (Tony Allen taking his place.) Ray on the left, per usual, and Tony playing the Pierce role, on the right in the half court. Tony doesn't have the same money spots as Pierce. Tony attacked, scoring four more points. Ray converted both free throws. Rondo scored six points. Garnett added in two more.

So Ray's +/- benefited from two runs in the 2nd QTR. Ray's man just didn't shoot. While he rebounded very well for the quarter, he wasn't impacting the game in any other area. As stated above, look who was responsible for changing this game. Those rebounds were going to be grabbed by someone, if not Ray. First Tony and Leon took control. Then Tony and Rajon. And, btw, the steal by Rondo was on Ray's man, FWIW.

Any way we could get you in that GM role so we could make trades such as your previously suggested Al Jefferson for Amir Johnson? Forget KG, if Pogue had Danny's job, he could've landed us Amir Johnson!

As I recall, it also included Sheed who would have been an expiring this season. Which, with the pieces Ainge pulls out of thin air, could have meant another star in a package deal. IMO, Amir is very similar to Garnett, on the defensive end of the floor. He has trouble guarding the post (he is improving) but he is absolutely terrific as a weak side shotblocker and also in help defense.

In fact, Amir Johnson had the highest individual stop% of any player in the league last year (.692), the highest block% ( 8.4%) and is still very young. Granted, that was in just 800 or so minutes but that is out-freakin-standing. Now, Amir has offensive issues in the half-court but he is definitely a game changer of ginormous proportions that just needs to continue to get stronger. He is also very adapt at finishing on the break, ball-thievery and offensive rebounding.

You have a pretty good memory. That was almost two years ago that I wanted that trade. I would have done it, too, if I was GM. All signs were that Garnett wasn't going anywhere. I would have had the 15th and 27th picks in the 2007 draft, a very young player worthy of top-5 pick in that draft (imo), Pierce, Rasheed, Rondo and Perkins.

I would take Amir Johnson over Al Jefferson any day of the week. It is similar how people severely underrated Fat Lever. Rajon Rondo, too. Both Amir and Rajon are unique, dynamic game-changers. Amir can cover all five positions on the court in most instances. He reminds me of a lesser rebounding, mild-mannered version of Dennis Rodman. And he won't be 22 until May. That is worth more than a pre-alcoholic version of Vin Baker that you have to surround with All-Star talent (including a future HoF) if you hope to win. No thank you.

[MyInsatiableOne]

Pogue, what the hell "that kind of performance" are you complaining about in saying Ray is overpaid? Are you trotting out the old canard that the shooting slump he was in during the CLE and DET series last playoffs define his career here? Because if so, that's ridiculous. If anything, this season, he has been the best and most consistent member of the Big 3. He plays adequate defense, shoots lights out, hustles, and doesn't hurt the team very much if at all when he's on the floor. You probably would have been trashing Parish during the 1980s as the one member of THAT Big 3, and you would have been wrong then, too.

[Kefa461]

Here's the answer to your question.....it's kinda simple.......The Celtics feels he is not overpaid.
They are paying him so they would know better then you or I and they have the final say. Nuff said.

[Spud34]

The problem is, if he isn't scoring, it usually means he isn't bringing anything else to the table. Additional problems arise when Ray is looking for his offense, too, because I am of the belief that means Pierce, Rondo and Garnett are going to struggle (usually.)

Couldn't agree more. Ray brings nothing but offense to the table, and when he's looking for his offense, instead of playing off Rondo, Pirece and KG, it usually isn't good for the team.

I just hope Danny doesn't give him an extension next year.

[MyInsatiableOne]

The problem is, if he isn't scoring, it usually means he isn't bringing anything else to the table. Additional problems arise when Ray is looking for his offense, too, because I am of the belief that means Pierce, Rondo and Garnett are going to struggle (usually.)

Couldn't agree more. Ray brings nothing but offense to the table, and when he's looking for his offense, instead of playing off Rondo, Pirece and KG, it usually isn't good for the team.

I just hope Danny doesn't give him an extension next year.

What a stupid argument. I could say that when Perk isn't playing defense, he brings nothing to the table...which is as true as what you say about Ray, just in reverse. Ray isn't the *best* defender but he is adequate, while Perk, for all of the progress he has made, is still an offensive (Please Use More Appropriate Word). Same with Rondo...when he's not running the point or playing D, he brings nothing...get it? This could go on and on. The fact is you NEED some people who focus on D (Perk, Rondo), and some who focus on scoring (Ray, etc). I always ask the same question and so far NO ONE HAS ANSWERED IT...if we dump Ray, where the **** is the third scoring option coming from????

[greenbeans]

I always ask the same question and so far NO ONE HAS ANSWERED IT...if we dump Ray, where the **** is the third scoring option coming from????

It's not like we'd cut him, we would get something back in a trade.

[BillessuR6]

This is ridiculous. Even if he is not scoring he is spacing the floor. He has been playing very well this season. Does he deserve 18 million at stage of his career? Of course not but who does.

[cisco]

"Convince me that I am wrong about Ray Allen"

Why? Do you have some authority to trade Ray Allen that we don't know about? So long as you have not authority whatsoever, no need to convince you of anything.

[TheCelticTruth]

pogue, i dont know how you can quantify unquantifiable factors. normally, terrible players look bad. ray allen doesnt strike me the way many players do as being bad or detrimental to the team the way say eddie house can be when he is not hitting shots, because there is a player who truly brings nothing when noy shooting well.

honestly, i dont think your argument can be proven right or wrong except in hindsight if ray allen was no longer here or no longer playing for us. maybe if he gets injured we would know.

its hard for me to believe that there is some great con going on that the entire NBA is blind to but you see. do i agree that ray is paid a lot of money for his role? yeah that is hard to argue, but i cant take that step and say that someone who can only shoot, like a pat carroll as you have suggested, wouldnt be of further detriment even for less money, than how you feel allen is. i think ray allen excels at shooting and isnt as good all around, but i still feel he has a complete skill set. he has not been a turn stile on defense, many critics (i was firmly behind pierce) felt that allen was our best player in the finals...

i just dont get the extremity of your feelings. and by this same argument, the majority of the NBA is severely overpaid and are detriments to their team.

[MyInsatiableOne]

I always ask the same question and so far NO ONE HAS ANSWERED IT...if we dump Ray, where the **** is the third scoring option coming from????

It's not like we'd cut him, we would get something back in a trade.

But who? Who would we get with comparable skills who is a probable future HOFer who commands as much respect from the opposing D in exchange for Ray? Who? NO ONE has offered one REASONABLE (being the key word here) alternative...none.

[DieselCeltic]

Ray Allen will not stay with the C's. MARK MY WORDS. He is done, finished and is a HAS-BEEN. Flame me all you want but there is so many guys out there who are playing BETTER than Ray Allen and are getting paid less.

And NO RAY ALLEN - NO KG ?? What about Pierce Kevin Garnett...you forgot about him did you...

Pierce will school Ray Allen in basketball.

[campybatman]

Funny, both Ray Allen and Scalabrine are overpaid. Ray's addition helped in part attract Garnett to Boston. While Scalabrine some will say is perhaps the reason Miles wasn't kept a tad longer.

If Boston could win a championship in both of Ray's remaining two years, then no Celtics fan would gripe all that much about his remaining salary. Otherwise, you either trade him after this season or accept what is: His contract was offered to him not by Ainge.

[underneathtoDJ]

While I can admit that Ray Ray has probably failed to meet all of our lofty expectations, here's what I see him bringing to the table:

1. More space for Paul and KG to operate. Without Ray, an additional defender is allowed to crowd the lane and make it much harder for Paul and KG to do what they do.

2. A "potential" lights out SG. I wish Ray was more consistent, but it doesn't remove the night-in, night-out threat that he could hit 4 or 5 threes and drop 25 points. (this helps with spreading the floor and gives the team another potential option to carry the offensive load).

3. Veteran leadership- it's been well documented Ray has been a great leader by example in how he prepares for games/seasons. He's also been instrumental in the continued offensive development of Rajon Rondo.

While I think it's DA's job to continue to improve this team anyway he can (including the possibility of trading Ray before his time here is done), I think the front-office has been more than thrilled with how things have gone since we got the Big 3. In an ideal world, we would trade Ray and end up with Joe Johnson or Kobe, but it's not. I love this team and have full confidence in their ability to repeat. They've got the focus and drive to make it happen, and they'll do it with Ray Allen. This team still hasn't completely come together offensively and I think Ray's play, above Paul and KG's, will continue to improve the more comfortable everyone gets with one another and with the offense.