Can Al Horford become Karl Malone?

[killbuckner]

Rip- How on earth do you think that Malone got to the line so much if he wasn't any good one on one or with his back to the basket? From shooting midrange jumpshots? Malone would attack defenses. Horford just isn't that kind of player.

[parson]

I told y'all that Marvelous wasn't a bust and would soon be a good player (and when he gets his man body - it 's still coming, by the way - he'll be a star) and now I'm telling y'all that Al Horford is going to be a star, as well.

I know it's condescending to speak this way, but y'all don't seem to be able to look at a kid and see his talent -- all y'all do is look at his #s and project the future from them. If we're talking about a 30-year old, I'd see the logic, but we're talking about KIDS here.

You look at their gifts, their work habits, their attitudes and their intelligence. Then you look for any physical or emotional handicaps that might hinder their growth.

I know I'm lecturing but, for goodness sake, y'all are condemning a kid who has been lauded by veterans (who know what they're talking about) all over the NBA. Betting on Al Horford is safe money.

[Harry10]

wow you guys are really taking this out of hand. i just put this up to lift everybody's spirits after the last 3 games.

1. first of all, alot of you are confusing young Karl Malone to prime Karl Malone. you guys need to be more reasonable and just consider young Karl Malone.

2. Malone got 12, 17, and 20 field goal attempts in his first three years

3. i really like the Malone reference because both Al and Karl look like they are built the same way, and their strenght and athletism seem to be similar (Horford can't shoot 3s like Barkley) but i really just bring up this reference as to say, can Al easily average 20/10 if given 20 attempts. i was thinking about saying "Can Al become Otis Thorpe"? but Otis never got any attempts either.

4. i think the Center argument is pointless, because Malone generally got the other team's best post defender.

regardless of what side you are one, we all can agree that if Horford got more than 8 attempts, like he does now, his numbers would be a whole lot better, and would have a better chance at getting 20/10

[tontoz]

Harry you have really lost it. Horford isn't even remotely as strong or talented as Malone. I have seen Malone up close in his prime and he was built like a truck. Do you really think Malone would struggle to score against NJ's backups?

The reason Malone took a lot of shots is because he was a very good scorer, hence 37,000 career points. Horford isn't much of a scorer so he doesn't get as many shots. Marvin isn't going to be a star and from the looks of it Horford won't either.

Just look at what rookies Mayo, Rose and Beasley are doing so far. It didn't take them long to start putting up big numbers.

[killbuckner]

You guys are missing how hard it would be for Horford to put up 20 shots in a game when he has trouble creating his own shot. Horford just doesn't have those skills.

[Harry10]

Harry you have really lost it. Horford isn't even remotely as strong or talented as Malone. I have seen Malone up close in his prime and he was built like a truck. Do you really think Malone would struggle to score against NJ's backups?

The reason Malone took a lot of shots is because he was a very good scorer, hence 37,000 career points. Horford isn't much of a scorer so he doesn't get as many shots. Marvin isn't going to be a star and from the looks of it Horford won't either.

Just look at what rookies Mayo, Rose and Beasley are doing so far. It didn't take them long to start putting up big numbers.

oh really?...... aight, i'll break the news to Al

[conleyorbust]

I like Al a lot, but doing something like this is just asking for people to point out his weaknesses.

As most people have pointed out, Malone got covered by the guy that the opposing coaches felt would cover him best. He got covered by Hakeem, Robinson, Buck Williams, and Oakley and had his way with all of them. The reason he was a tough cover was because he could face up or score in transition against the big nasties but he was the strongest player in the leage (outside of Shaq) and could just abuse PFs down low.

Even when Malone was a fairly unskilled rook, he was just more aggressive than Al. He was getting to the line 5 times a game, Stock's rookie year by the way. Malone, peice of crap as a human, was unbelievable at getting to the line his entire career because he really wanted to score. Al doesn't have the touch, shot, or feel for offense that Malone had and its not a knock on Horford just as saying that Durant doesn't have anywhere near the offense game that Larry Bird had isn't an insult to Durant, just statement of fact.

Al scored 2 points with his back to the basket in Chi game too, and they were off free throws when he tried to post up Aaron Gray. He had trouble against Thomas and Noc in the low post. He just doesn't look comfortable backing guys down. By comparison, he looks GREAT when he decides to face up from the high post, take two dribbles and then finish. He does a decent job of drawing contact that way too - he just doesn't seem to want to do it.

... and again, I like Al as a player, but lets not build him up into something he's not. Lets not imagine some (Please Use More Appropriate Word) scenario where, if Al had an all-star center to draw double teams, he'd be able to flourish and prove that he has the talent to be a top 3 PF ever... or whatever the claim is.

[tontoz]

Al scored 2 points with his back to the basket in Chi game too, and they were off free throws when he tried to post up Aaron Gray. He had trouble against Thomas and Noc in the low post. He just doesn't look comfortable backing guys down. By comparison, he looks GREAT when he decides to face up from the high post, take two dribbles and then finish. He does a decent job of drawing contact that way too - he just doesn't seem to want to do it.

That is what i have been saying all along. But some people think i am hating on him if i say he isn't going to be a back to the basket player. He just isn't strong enough and tall enough to be successful trying to back guys down at the 4 or the 5. If he is going to score it is going to be facing up.

It is much easier to get Al the ball 15-18 feet away from the basket than it is to get him the ball in the low post. Being further out gives him more room to operate, making it easier to beat the defender off the dribble which Al has shown the ability to do when he actually tries it. Plus he can get an open 15 footer whenever he wants.

[JoshB914]

If Al Horford was even remotely close to being a 20 PPG guy, we wouldn't have just lost back-to-back games to the New Jersey Nets.

I see him as a fine role player who will hold great value because of his hustle, defense, and leadership ability. But 20/10? He's never shown me the kind of offensive ability to get those kind of points every night.

[conleyorbust]

That is what i have been saying all along. But some people think i am hating on him if i say he isn't going to be a back to the basket player. He just isn't strong enough and tall enough to be successful trying to back guys down at the 4 or the 5. If he is going to score it is going to be facing up.

Al's post moves are similar to Shelden's, better to that, but similar. They are predicated on being able to simply overpower the competition. The problem is though, you can't over-power competition in the NBA unless you are just an unbelievable physical specimen like Dwight or Shaq. Not even Yao consistently overpowers poeple as he usually uses a turn-around J from around 8 feet out. Al tries to play like those guys on the low block but he doesn't back his way down far enough and ends up just throwing something at the front of the hoop.

There are guys who are smaller, weaker, whatever than him that have post games. Jefferson is similar-sized, Craig Smith is smaller, Randolph is smaller and has a 2 inch vert, etc., those guys score against centers in the post but they have offensive games built on finesse - Al doesn't and he either needs to learn a few new post moves and become more fluid with them, or spend less time down there.

[markdeez33]

No, but he can play the role of Tito Horford's son

[Rip2137]

Rip- How on earth do you think that Malone got to the line so much if he wasn't any good one on one or with his back to the basket? From shooting midrange jumpshots? Malone would attack defenses. Horford just isn't that kind of player.

The Jazz ran the stockton malone pick and roll like 30+ times a game. He was a pick and roll/pick and pop player. Most of those points were his midrange jumper. then when people would step out, he would go to the rim HARD and get alot of fouls there.

The jazz offense was never give the ball to Malone and let him work. As a matter of fact, when they did go to that, Malone was incredibly turnover prone because he got tunnel vision on the basket and couldn't handle the double well.

I am not saynig malone wasn't a great player or anything, but he had the perfect storm of the perfect offense, getting 20-25 chances a game to score, and the greatest pure point guard ever.

Horford isnt going to be Malone, because he doesn't have that jumper as deadly to scare defenders, he doesnt have a great point guard, and he doesn't/shouldn't get that many opportunities in the game. Yes, malone went to the rim hard, but he went that way because he was ROLLING to the basket. Not becaues he had anything resembling good ball handling skills or one on one basketball prowless.

[lethalweapon3]

At the risk of overextending this discussion, I think Al Horford's career ceiling is not Karl Malone, but Tim Duncan. Not a higher or lower ceiling necessarily... just different house types.

One of Hofo's assets is he looks the part of an eager learner of the game. Al will have plenty of time over his career to bolster his footwork on the block, passing skills, 10-20-foot jumpers and his man defense. Plus he's getting valuable trial-by-fire work by playing major minutes at Center (without, say, an Admiral to rely on... or even a Mark Eaton in the case of the Mailman) early in his career, making him increasingly flexible when applying his skills at the 4-5 spots down the road.

~lw3

[_BBIB_]

Horford does not have the size to be Tim Duncan.

Horford has a lot of potential on offense. It's kind of weird. He dribbles the ball down the court with ease but he's kind of awkward in the post. It's like he thinks too much and is too robotic. Not as bad as Shelden Williams robotic, but still robotic. If he moved quicker in the post I think he could score 15 PPG

[lethalweapon3]

Horford does not have the size to be Tim Duncan.

Horford has a lot of potential on offense. It's kind of weird. He dribbles the ball down the court with ease but he's kind of awkward in the post. It's like he thinks too much and is too robotic. Not as bad as Shelden Williams robotic, but still robotic. If he moved quicker in the post I think he could score 15 PPG

Hofo does give up an inch to TD (two almost, as Duncan's closer to 7'0" than 6'11") and about ten pounds. Even if he doesn't grow in height at this stage of his career, I can see him gaining in girth to the point where he's closer in body type to Not-So-Tiny-Tim than the 265-pound truck driving Mailman. Plus he'll never have elbows as effective as Karl's no matter how much he bulks up! lol

I think when you touched on the cerebral, Mr. Roboto nature of Al's offensive game (accurately delineated from the Frankenstein-style Shelden), that's probably where I see the Duncan-lite in him most. Despite dropping 20-10 nightly with ease, TD used to get critiqued for being too mechanical offensively in his early years... a critique that apparently turns into "fundamentally sound" as long as your style of play results in championship trophies parading down the Riverwalk. The difference with Duncan (circa 1999, season two for him) is he knew exactly what he was gonna do with the rock well before it got into his hands on a play. Having a smart coach like Popovich sure helps with instinctiveness, but that's where Hofo can get to eventually, as he builds up a comfort level with his skills and teammates and takes up a greater share of offensive responsibilities.

As an aside, Al's got a little showboat edge to him (bicep check, anyone?), but nothing quite at the audacious level of the "let me pose like a model with a hand behind my head as I jam" style that Malone displayed in his prime.

~lw3

[killbuckner]

Put this question in a simpler way. Does anyone here think that Horford has a chance to be a top 10 scorer all time?

[conleyorbust]

lethal, comparing him to TD is the sort of thing that just invites criticism.

At Al's age/experience, Tim was leading his team to an NBA Championship making All-NBA 1st team, All-NBA Defensive team, and coming in 3rd in MVP voting.

People call Duncan's post game mechanic but he was a +20ppg scorer from day 1. He is/was far more effective of a post player than all but a select few players in the history of the game even with that perceived mechanical game - Al doesn't have that going for him, and on that specifically, he probably never will.

... and Duncan has always been a far more effective defender, which isn't a knock on Al in the least because the last guy I think was as effective as TD on defense was Hakeem.

[lethalweapon3]

Put this question in a simpler way. Does anyone here think that Horford has a chance to be a top 10 scorer all time?

If he can play 'til he's 70 he's got a shot! lol

lethal, comparing him to TD is the sort of thing that just invites criticism.

At Al's age/experience, Tim was leading his team to an NBA Championship making All-NBA 1st team, All-NBA Defensive team, and coming in 3rd in MVP voting.

People call Duncan's post game mechanic but he was a +20ppg scorer from day 1. He is/was far more effective of a post player than all but a select few players in the history of the game even with that perceived mechanical game - Al doesn't have that going for him, and on that specifically, he probably never will.

... and Duncan has always been a far more effective defender, which isn't a knock on Al in the least because the last guy I think was as effective as TD on defense was Hakeem.

(This is my fault for even belaboring the post. I promise, I'll cut it out after this one!)

CoB's right that TD is light years ahead of where Al was at the same points of their NBA careers. Having an Admiral, a Coach Pop, and a defensive-minded veteran team off the block (compared to a Zaza, a Coach Woody, and Tyronn Lue as your prime defensive-averse veteran) helps the accolades and parades arrive a little quicker. Where some want Hofo to morph his game into Mailman's, I think he and his team would do better if he YouTubed Duncan's prime years and aimed toward achieving that level of effort on both ends of the court. Suggesting that's his ceiling is not the same as saying that's where he is now. The question was what Al Horford could become if he works at it and matures his game... not if he plateaus.

~lw3

[conleyorbust]

CoB's right that TD is light years ahead of where Al was at the same points of their NBA careers. Having an Admiral, a Coach Pop, and a defensive-minded veteran team off the block (compared to a Zaza, a Coach Woody, and Tyronn Lue as your prime defensive-averse veteran) helps the accolades and parades arrive a little quicker. Where some want Hofo to morph his game into Mailman's, I think he and his team would do better if he YouTubed Duncan's prime years and aimed toward achieving that level of effort on both ends of the court. Suggesting that's his ceiling is not the same as saying that's where he is now. The question was what Al Horford could become if he works at it and matures his game... not if he plateaus.

~lw3

No worries from me about this dragging on, its a nice discussion.

Maybe I'm just a pessimist but I think it takes more than just hard work and physical ability to develop to the level of a Tim Duncan or Karl Malone (or Buck Williams, or Elton Brand, etc.). The fact is that all these guys are incredibly hard workers and there are a lot of other pros who also work their asses off but can't approach those levels. There is a basic feel for some aspects of the game that Al doesn't have compared to those guys. He isn't as aggressive as Malone and he isn't the same devastating finisher, nor does he have the freight train physique or automatic midrange J. Also, he isn't as comfortable in the post as Duncan, nor is he a natural shotblocker with freakishly long arms.

To an extent, those things were innate to those guys. Or at least came easier to them than they do to other people. Thats who Duncan could be a 22-12-2.5 guy from his first day in the league - post play just came to him.

Similarly, I don't think Joe could ever be the next Larry Bird just because he is smart and skilled. I don't think Josh could ever score like Amare even if he has the same athleticism and aggressiveness. Some things just aren't in a guy's development range and for Al, you would never watch him in the post and say he was young Duncan-esque even if people said both of their post-games were mechanical.

[Hoopstarr]

I'm a Raptors fan but I live in Atlanta so I see Horford a lot and I watched him in college. IMO, he doesn't have the offensive upside to become anything close to Malone, especially without a Stockton. I actually compare him to Dwight Howard who also doesn't have any offensive game (or defense other than blocks for that matter). Howard gets by on pure strength, size, and athleticism which even Horford can't compare with. Horford is developing a jumper but I don't think it will get to Malone's level. And he doesn't have the post moves to become an all-star either.

And on the defensive end, he has great rebounding instincts but his one-on-one D consists of fouling. A lot of fouling. And dangerously too--see TJ Ford and LeBron's James' headband. He's always aimlessly hacking at players it seems. This is something he can fix though.