2009-2010 State of the Jazz

[ColdBlue]

Ok, I've been thinking about options for next year. Here is where we stand:

Salary Luxury Tax = approx 75 million

Jazz roster =

DW = 16 million
AK = 16 million
Booze = 12.5 million (player option)
Memo = 9 million (player option)
Harp = 6.5 million
Korver = 5 million
CJ = 4 million
Brew = 3 million
Koufos = 1 million
Fes = 1 million (team option)

Total w/options = 74 million (10 players under contract)
Total w/out options = 52.5 million (7 players under contract - Booze and Memo will opt out, and I think Fes will not be picked up)

We will have 22.5 million to sign 5 players.

Here are my estimates for market value:

Booze = 18 million
Okur = 12 million
Sap = 6 million
Price = 3 million
Knight = 3 million
Draft picks = 2 million

So barring any trades I'm thinking the decision is Booze vs Memo+Sap. Tough choice.

[sendai91]

This used to be more of a tough choice than I think it is now. I don't want to be overly enamored with how Milsap has played during the last few games, but I also think that it boils down to Booze vs. Memo and Milsap.

Maybe this is overly simplistic on my part, but I think that we go with Milsap and Memo for three reasons:

1. Milsap is more durable than Boozer is, and it's not particularly close.

2. We're beyond stuck if we let Memo and Milsap go, resign Boozer and then Boozer gets reinjured again. Having two talented players on the roster is better at least from an injury insurance perspective.

3. Are we really missing Boozer over the last several games? He's a fantastic offensive player no doubt, but the defensive deficiencies don't play well to competing in the playoffs.
This year, the collective stats for Memo and Milsap track at 28.4 ppg, 13.9 rpg, 1.6 bpg, 3.1 apg and 1.39 spg. Boozer's metrics track @ 20.5 ppg, 11.7 rpg, .25 bpg, 2.7 apg and .92 spg. Milsap's impressive average are understated by the fact that he's only averaging 27 minutes per game.

Beyond the injuries, the drama factor seems to be 500% less with Memo and Paul as well. I don't want to see Booze leave, but it's pretty cut and dry to me. I just hope that Boozer doesn't end up in the Western Conference somewhere...

[Racer X]

Korver's is a player option as well.

The facts are these . . . I dont envy KOC's job whatsoever.

[sendai91]

A couple more metrics: Memo's @ 56% from the floor, Booze and Milsap are an even 55% and change. Booze and Milsap also shoot exactly the same from the free throw line. Milsap doesn't have the jumper or the ambidexterity that Boozer does, but Milsap is a better rebounder and defender. With the offense on the team that can come from DWill, Memo, Miles, AK and Brewer, do we really need Boozer's offensive skillset at the risk of losing both Memo and Milsap?

[HammerDunk]

Does anyone have the numbers on foul per minute on Sap VS Booz?

[loserX]

Couple more wrinkles:

1) It is entirely possible that we will not have any draft picks in 2009. We probably won't get New York's, and if we finish top-8 Minnesota will get ours. (We still have a 2nd rounder if I remember right, but won't let that get in the way of our tax problem.)

2) We have to see what will happen with Harpring. I wouldn't be surprised if he retired after this season (presumably to take a job with the org), but we can't count on that. If he does, especially for medical reasons, we can apply to have his salary taken off the cap.

The rest of your assumptions look pretty good. I think the best thing we can do, quite frankly, is wait. If Booz wants the max, there's not a lot of teams that can give it to him...only Portland, Memphis and Utah if I remember right. If he wants to go elsewhere, he'll have to take less money, perhaps a lot less. That may work in our favour.

And as much as Boozer is the best player on this list...he can be somewhat replaced (with AK and Millsap). Okur, not so much, unless Koufos comes a LONG way quickly.

(As much I expressed a desire for patience, it may not be as easy as that either...Memphis could force our hand by offering $7M+ to Millsap instead. We'd have a week to match it or let him walk for nothing; then it's decision time.)

[Wolverine]

Sap will get more than 6mil per.
Okur may not opt out

[GP]

Sap will get more than 6mil per.
Okur may not opt out

Good points, I think that Sap is really looking like a starter in this league and may get somewhere around 6-9mil/year. Ugh, what a ugly situation though, again A LOT will depend on what transpires in the playoffs.

[corona]

Does anyone have the numbers on foul per minute on Sap VS Booz?

last season (since it's a bigger sample size), millsap averaged 5.5 fouls in the amount of minutes that boozer played (a little under 35)...compared to boozer's 3.6 fouls.

[Ming Kong!]

As much as I like Boozer, let him go, it's not worth spending 18million more at the PF position when you already have Millsap, and AK can play backup PF minutes too. Also we could use the projected lottery pick in 2010 to get a PF, that guy would cost us some 16-17 less than Boozer would, and we'll have money to resign Brewer in 2010, and then Miles in 2012. You got to look ahead, and resigning Boozer for a 5yr $100M deal would leave no room to make any moves until 2014.

Okur/Koufos/Fesenko
Millsap/2010 lottery pick
Miles/Kirilenko/Harpring
Brewer/Korver/Almond
Williams/Price/Knight

We're fine

[Wolverine]

Boozer 18 mil - Millsap 8mil is he really worth the extra 10 or so mil a year?

[carrottop12]

If the Jazz let Boozer leave, and have Millsap start they need another scoring big man coming off the bench. Last night was a perfect example of why Boozer is so important. When other people aren't making shots, Boozer can always give you easy baskets. The Jazz would need to get another 20 ppg low post guy to fill in for him, or Millsap would really have to develop a dynamite back to the basket game.

[babyjax13]

Here is the way I see the offseason going down:

1) Likely to opt out: Boozer

Obvious reasons, Booze is worth more than we pay him, lots of teams are going to want a 20/10 power forward in their front line, etc. etc. Memphis, Portland, Minnisota, Utah, Detroit, and Miami should all have enough money to sign him. I think that the most likely team to go after him is Detroit (to replace Sheed).

2) Not opting out: Memo, Korver

Both are really good fits with the Jazz and seem happy. If Memo does opt out we can resign him for about the same amount of money he gets now, but over a longer period of time (say 4 yrs, 36 million). If Korver opts out he'll be gone.

3) Coming back: Millsap, Price

Both have done great in their current roles, I don't think that we will be able to resign Boozer for what we want, and if we do it will likely be a sign and trade for a decent power forward, a filler and picks. Price is pretty much a lock to return in his current role.

4) Not returning: Knight, Boozer, Collins, Almond, Harpring, Fess

Collins and Harp are at the end of the line--neither has enough left in the tank for another season. It has become clear that Almond is not in our future plans, and I just don't see Knight returning with how well Price is playing as Deron's back up.

[Wolverine]

Last night was a perfect example of why Boozer is so important. When other people aren't making shots, Boozer can always give you easy baskets. The Jazz would need to get another 20 ppg low post guy to fill in for him, or Millsap would really have to develop a dynamite back to the basket game.

Don't forget we were down Kirilenko also

[Wolverine]

If Harp leaves i wouldn't mind keeping Mo around

[The Sheik]

If Harp leaves i wouldn't mind keeping Mo around

How is Harpring gonna leave? He isnt going to miss any games because of his knee. He sits on the bench next yr and gets 6.5 mil. Its gonna take a career ending injury(God forbid) for Harp to not end his career here.

[TexJazz]

Maybe he can have a golf cart injury like Collins that will end his career.

[Lava Rock Kid]

did you ever think that god heard our prayers and allowed or forced that cart to tip so Jerry coulndt give him millsaps/kirilenko/kufos minutes?

[The Sheik]

I would officially like to give up on Fes. Decline his option, bring in Tomic.