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Long Term Plan? (merged threads)

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WizarDynasty
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#141 » by WizarDynasty » Sun Nov 30, 2008 11:50 pm

nate33 wrote:Sorry bud, wrong again. Those are 08/09 numbers. I'm talking about the Bulls in 06/07 and 07/08 under Skiles.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2007.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2008.html


Luol Deng--7'1 wingspan--perimeter player--S/F==48 blocks that year--.75 bls/48 minutes
Caron Bulter=6'11 wingspan .33/blks/48 minutes
Andre Nocioni--.82 blk/48 minutes
Jamison--who is suppose to be a p/f--not even a s/f 0.65/48 minutes
tyrus thomas==an amazing 3.78 blk/48minutes

We have two perimeter players who don't even play in the paint have better shot blocking ability than our starting p/f.

So the entire premise that chicago didn't have above average to elite Perimeter shotblcoking defenders--yet were still able to become the number one defense in the league has been squashed. Here is the link for espn 2006-2007 stats--tyrus--listed as p/f that also plays s/f--something jamison also does has 7'3 wingspan at 6'8--Deng 7'1 wingspan. caron butler 6'11 player average an abysmal 0.33 blks/48 minutes Deshaun stevenson=a guy who we ask to guard s/f like lebron, paul pierce-=.038--we below .75, .82, and 3.62 shot blocking averages of the above average perimeter defenders of chicago on 2006-2007 squad.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistic ... e=2&pos=sg stats don't lie.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#142 » by Silvie Lysandra » Sun Nov 30, 2008 11:52 pm

Granted, defensive +/- numbers don't really tell the whole story because while a player can be a poor "defender", good rebounding numbers can make team defense look better. The thing is, I find it easier to find a 9-11 RPG guy than to find an elite defensive PF. (also i hope you're not implying that jamison is a smart defender)

Also Darius Songalia was his backup. Make of that what you will (Blatche was Haywood's backup iirc)
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#143 » by WizarDynasty » Sun Nov 30, 2008 11:56 pm

doclinkin wrote:
WizarDynasty wrote:
But as far as length is concerned, the Wiz currently have the longest team in the league, for all the good it does us. Longest wingspan, tallest reach. Top 5 anyway in each category.


you gotta be kidding...our starters this year have the longest wingspan in the league and tallest reach at each of the five positions..pg,sg,sf,pf, Center..lol..wow? where did you get that info from?/quote]

I'll type really slowly so you can understand... our team is the tallest, longest team in the league... not the starters...the entire team.... Here's one source....

APBRMetrics

Please, spend a long time on this site asking questions. These are folks who actually measure basketball efficiency, I'm sure they'll love you to pester them with questions and bizarre hypotheses.

Now this is a team that replaced Mason with Juan Dixon and Dee Brown, so clearly we lost size there, but we also added the kid with the largest wingspan and 2nd longest standing reach in the league. So the DRE calculation indicates we're top five. Geddit?

Now the fact that you make a distinction between our starters and our bench sorta neuters your size argument. Because for all that they are shorter players our starters tend to be better, even in most cases defensively. Jamison is often crushed on here for his defense, but last year his defensive +/- was top 20 in the league, and tops on our team. Even though he's shorter than his back-ups.

Defense is a combination of size plus smarts. You can argue yourself into a corner over this if you want, but you'll still be wrong to suggest it is only one or the other. When your strongest argument is a stubborn refusal to admit fact, it's tough to win a debate on who's the most stupider.

Ok if you are not talking about the players who logged in the most minutes guarding teh perimeter and I repeat guarding hte perimete on the court..or have play a significant amount of minutes on the defending on thecourt...then you are pretty much wasting time. the players who logged in the most minutes guarding the perimeter have the worst in comparison to other teams that made the playoffs last year--p/g, s/g,s/f--these 3 positions are responsible for guarding the perimeter and they are worst shot pg/sg/sfblocking threesome in the league at blocking shots per/48minutes....if compare Jamison to top 10 p/f at shotblocking in the paint...he is one of the worst in league. This is indisputable evidence that i am presenting here. 2007-2008 will show you the same results for perimeter shotblocking. and not only that, its get worse when playoff time comes. Espn has a feature that lets you compare playoff stats for shotblocking per48/min...and sadly it gets worse for the wizard first 3 starting players from last year.
just click on the link and see with your very own eyes.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistic ... e=2&pos=sf

For those who have difficulty interpreting shots per 48/min--.78 vs .33...is measure of how effective you are at challenging shots versus other smallf forwards. .4 is very huge difference is shot blocking and shot altering ability among s/f and shows a great correlation to an players ability to force a shooter to adjust the arc on his shot. Players with low blocked shot per min do not force the shooter to adjust the arc on their shot..ala butler and jamison. its relaive to position. If you wan a base for absolute best...just look at the best perimeter defenders on playoff teams and compare their shotblocking per minute...aka tayshaun to to find out what's average..what's above average and what is absolute horrible aka stevenson.
Build your team w/5 shooters using P. Pierce Form deeply bent hips and lower back arch at same time b4 rising into shot. Elbow never pointing to the ground! Good teams have an engine player that shoot volume (2000 full season) at 50 percent.Large Hands
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#144 » by nate33 » Mon Dec 1, 2008 12:35 am

WizarDynasty wrote:
nate33 wrote:Sorry bud, wrong again. Those are 08/09 numbers. I'm talking about the Bulls in 06/07 and 07/08 under Skiles.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2007.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2008.html


Luol Deng--7'1 wingspan--perimeter player--S/F==48 blocks that year--.75 bls/48 minutes
Caron Bulter=6'11 wingspan .33/blks/48 minutes
Andre Nocioni--.82 blk/48 minutes
Jamison--who is suppose to be a p/f--not even a s/f 0.65/48 minutes
tyrus thomas==an amazing 3.78 blk/48minutes

We have two perimeter players who don't even play in the paint have better shot blocking ability than our starting p/f.


Geez, you just don't know when to stop do you? You are reaching so hard it's ridiculous. Thomas played 13 minutes and 18 minutes per game in 2006 and 2007 respectively. He played about as much forward as Blatche did. Blatche averaged 3.3 blocks per 48 last year. So don't tell me that Tyrus Thomas was the difference. That's absurd.

Deng's 0.4 more blocks per 48 than Butler is not the difference between the best defensive team in the league and the worst. Sorry Bud. Think of another theory. That ain't flyin' here.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#145 » by WizarDynasty » Mon Dec 1, 2008 12:52 am

nate33 wrote:
WizarDynasty wrote:
nate33 wrote:Sorry bud, wrong again. Those are 08/09 numbers. I'm talking about the Bulls in 06/07 and 07/08 under Skiles.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2007.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2008.html


Luol Deng--7'1 wingspan--perimeter player--S/F==48 blocks that year--.75 bls/48 minutes
Caron Bulter=6'11 wingspan .33/blks/48 minutes
Andre Nocioni--.82 blk/48 minutes
Jamison--who is suppose to be a p/f--not even a s/f 0.65/48 minutes
tyrus thomas==an amazing 3.78 blk/48minutes

We have two perimeter players who don't even play in the paint have better shot blocking ability than our starting p/f.


Geez, you just don't know when to stop do you? You are reaching so hard it's ridiculous. Thomas played 13 minutes and 18 minutes per game in 2006 and 2007 respectively. He played about as much forward as Blatche did. Blatche averaged 3.3 blocks per 48 last year. So don't tell me that Tyrus Thomas was the difference. That's absurd.

Deng's 0.4 more blocks per 48 than Butler is not the difference between the best defensive team in the league and the worst. Sorry Bud. Think of another theory. That ain't flyin' here.


my argument was limited to perimeter defense. I think i have given you enough info to research. Then there is the defensive player of the year named Ben Wallace with 156 blks and one best rebounders...that obviously helps if you want to switch the discussion from perimeter defense to overall defense.
edit
A simple hand in the face does not force a shooter to change the arc on his shot...only the threat of it being blocked does...short armed defenders don't threaten a shooters mechanics...need i say more...--a hand in the face does not change a perimeter shooters mechannics!!-end of discussion--skiles sucked

NIck young is the best perimeter defender on the team this year...click the link to check what is blk/48min are compared to top sg in the league..--special note..its alot higher than carons, jamisons, stevensons, and A.D. Hopefully you start to make the connectionstowhy nick young is ranked pretty highly among shooting guards in 2009-2009 and nick young is our best defender against perimeter shots.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistic ... e=2&pos=sg
But changing topics..you guys can research the details...i think eric snow would make a great coach. I hope we sign him before someone else now that he is a free.
Build your team w/5 shooters using P. Pierce Form deeply bent hips and lower back arch at same time b4 rising into shot. Elbow never pointing to the ground! Good teams have an engine player that shoot volume (2000 full season) at 50 percent.Large Hands
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#146 » by doclinkin » Mon Dec 1, 2008 7:00 pm

WizarDynasty wrote:Ok if you are not talking about the players who logged in the most minutes guarding teh perimeter and I repeat guarding hte perimete on the court..or have play a significant amount of minutes on the defending on thecourt...


You're making the point against yourself here. The guys who were starting on the perimeter last year were defensively better than their bigger younger back-ups (Young and McGuire).

Truth is Nick Young is in the top 10 all time (okay ~20 years of data) in wingspan for 2-guards (with a pretty generous definition of the position --considering they have LeBron James and Josh Howard listed above him in the sort for 2-guards). With quicker lane agility than your average Point Guard. (Incidentally his measured standing reach is short mostly because he slouches like a velociraptor. He can reach higher, just rarely uncoils all the way, he's got the "s"-curve spine like a greyhound or a cheetah, coiled energy like a compound bow. You see it unleash when he springs up to dunk, all that un-used length adds bounce to his jump).

But despite his measurements he's never shown a particular interest or understanding or aptitude for defense. And empirical data shows the team was defensively worse by about 5 points when he was on court instead of DeSteve. See 82games here for instance, run player pairs regressions if you really want to get nifty with the data. ( Or ask nate to do it for you when you get done telling him everything he needs to know about stats).

Now the fact that Nick is a cipher on defense doesn't mean he's hopeless. I'd venture to guess Stevenson was pretty terrible coming out of Highschool direct to Utah. Just that the Young One has shown no history of being very good at it. No instinct for it. Whatever his physical dimensions.

Defense is one of those things where truly its not always the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog. Otherwise Julius Hodge and Rod Grizzard would have proven to be 1st team all league defenders at the 2-guard spot. Chris Paul is a pretty decent defender and he has one of the shortest measured standard reach of all players drafted in the past 8 years.

Truth is, while I'm a proponent of adding size to make the job of defense easier, there's no substitute for a track record of actual defensive competence. And incidentally when you compare standing reach and various other anthropometric measurements vis-a-vis which players actually prove to be good defenders in the NBA-- among wing players at least there seems to be a closer tie between 'lane agility' & defense than any other draft combine measure. (Hinrich, DWade, etc all score high here). If you can keep in front of a man, you get the whistle in your favor; if you reach, he does.

p/g, s/g,s/f--these 3 positions are responsible for guarding the perimeter and they are worst shot pg/sg/sfblocking threesome in the league at blocking shots per/48minutes....

This is indisputable evidence that i am presenting here. 2007-2008 will show you the same results for perimeter shotblocking. and not only that, its get worse when playoff time comes.

For those who have difficulty interpreting shots per 48/min--.78 vs .33...is measure of how effective you are at challenging shots versus other smallf forwards. .4 is very huge difference is shot blocking and shot altering ability among s/f and shows a great correlation to an players ability to force a shooter to adjust the arc on his shot. Players with low blocked shot per min do not force the shooter to adjust the arc on their shot..ala butler and jamison. its relaive to position. If you wan a base for absolute best...just look at the best perimeter defenders on playoff teams and compare their shotblocking per minute...aka tayshaun to to find out what's average..what's above average and what is absolute horrible aka stevenson.


Eh. No 'indisputable evidence', you still have homework to do. So far you haven't made a statistical case to show that perimeter shotblocking is key for overall defense. The Phoenix Suns haven't carried a reputation of being the best lockdown Defenders on the perimeter, but Grant Hill and Shawn Marion consistently ranked high in shotblocking per 40 minutes (pace adjusted). If you want to work a spreadsheet to show which teams have the best perimeter shotblockers and cross reference with opponent eFG% then maybe you have indisputable evidence, what you have now is just a strong hunch and a repeated assertion that no one has bothered to challenge.

Tell you what, start a thread to ask at APBRMetrics, they'll probably be able to run the data for you. Then you can come back here and pretend you did the work yourself. I prob'ly won't even tell, since I only lurk there occasionally.

Way I see it though wingspan and reach are all well and good, ditto lateral speed and anticipation, but the truth is it does yyou no good if you don't use it. As much as I defended EJ one thing that always torched my tail was the fact that until Songaila got here we never had a player who would even raise their hands on defense. Okay, Haywood too. Stevenson eventually. It's tough to block a shot or reduce opponent defense if your hands are at your side like gunfighters. Gil and Caron and Larry were all guilty of this in part because all of them have unusual wingspan for their height and liked to sucker the attackers into trying a pass that most people couldn't reach: where they'd snatch it out the air and go off to the races. That's just 4th grade stuff: hands up: one in his face to block vision, one tracking the ball. A simple fix. You'd have to have pretty short arms to be unable to reach a man's face. Standing reach has nothing to do with it, good habits and fundamental ball tactics do.

That's where a short armed pug like Scott Skiles could have an effect, on court or on the bench and in your ear. Do it right or not at all. The fact that the Wiz have room to improve is a good thing. Just a small alteration here or there can make a world of difference.

EDIT-- and this is where teams like the Spurs excel. They ID players who already play good fundamental defense and who require little retraining, then hire them. When possible they season them overseas where you won't play unless you have good habits. That's just part of their instututional philosophy, and that's the real difference between the Spurs and Wiz, so far. They have the ability to look long term, because quite frankly there's no need for a fast turnaround in San Antoinio. Sportswise it's not like there's much else to do.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#147 » by ZonkertheBrainless » Mon Dec 1, 2008 7:28 pm

doclinkin wrote:
That's where a short armed pug like Scott Skiles could have an effect, on court or on the bench and in your ear. Do it right or not at all. The fact that the Wiz have room to improve is a good thing. Just a small alteration here or there can make a world of difference.



Preach it doc!
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#148 » by doclinkin » Mon Dec 1, 2008 9:44 pm

Quoting myself so's not to re-edit this book length post.

doclinkin wrote:EDIT-- and this is where teams like the Spurs excel. They ID players who already play good fundamental defense and who require little retraining, then hire them. When possible they season them overseas where you won't play unless you have good habits. That's just part of their instututional philosophy, and that's the real difference between the Spurs and Wiz, so far. They have the ability to look long term, because quite frankly there's no need for a fast turnaround in San Antoinio. Sportswise it's not like there's much else to do.


That's what proved most of the shame for me here with the ganking of EJ. And the injuries. I agree with GMEG's concept that you have to commit to a philosophy and stick with it long enough for it to work. In this case Ernie had more faith in his picks than they have yet earned, his perspective was that EJ was at fault. I can respect his evaluation and skills and hey it's his ass in the sling not mine. But seems to me if the team had been able to maintain decent health, or even stagger their injuries a little, we would have been able to see some sort of progress.

As it was EJ was able to tread water (playoff appearances, if not advancement) given tough circumstances. My feeling was when all were re-assembled we'd suddenly see our pent up frustration unleashed on opponents in a bloodbath. But despite a longer tenure than most, we were never able to see the full fruit of that continuity and chemistry stratagem. In part because-- what with free agency departures or lack of bench talent-- we lacked the former. Chemistry was there though. We had just started to get an upgrade in talent on the bench. Young though they were. Are.

If we had our starters, the Young pups would have had time to develop slow (here with the team, not on the Spurs model. Difference being we need all our draft picks in uniform). Instead they got a trial by fire and came up lacking. No shame, just to be expected with youth. EJ got axed in part because he was under fire to protect his job and win now, where the GM would prefer to see the young talent developed. A paradox there. If he relies on veterans he may win, but will wear them out quicker and not develop the youth, thus get fired; if he relies on the youth he'll lose more often, and you know... get fired.

My feeling is young players learn to win by playing key roles on winning teams. Then adding to their game little by little. Minutes alone help, but quality minutes help more -- otherwise you pick up bad habits that are tough to unlearn. The Spurs/Portland Euro-training plan works great because the Euros play far fewer games per week, and spend far longer hours straight-up drilling. Fundamentals, plays, execution, team defense, communication, etc. Plus you don't have to pay the guys for someone else to train them You get your minor league affiliate for free. A wonderful luxury.

Now the Spurs are able to maintain chemistry and continuity even without those picks over ehre because of a solid institutional framework and a fundamentally perfect centerpiece player. (Plus Big Timmy has been pretty durable for a Big). They build around this keystone with the long view in mind. But it takes a while to build an institutional plan and outlook, and it usually requires special patience via the ownership.

The frustration from a Wiz standpoint is that now the team is likely to shift in a different direction. Find new roles. Learn new methods, and probably struggle a little to adjust. In all probability there will be a roster shake-up to suit the new coaches style. And the roster as it's assembled now is like I said a half-finished project. You change course now there's little benefit from the 4+ eyars of continuity and reps within a system.

On the plus side, I do think there's a ton of talent on this team. Some playing, some in street clothes. One way or the other I'd bet we end up alright. It just may take a little while. Again.

As for Ernie. To some extent I think his strength is also his failing. The philosophy of GMing for the coach is fine, though it means you sometimes get caught when the coach insists you trade away the farm to get a toothless old Gary Payton or whatnot. If you have an institutional plan and long view (Spurs, now Portland, possibly Boston) --which often means deep pockets or a loyal fanbase-- you can develop a team towards a style that is proven to work, and hire the coach that fits your personal philosophy of ball. Ernie built a defensive monster in NYC to suit Riley. He found gems like Anthony Mason, Oakley, John Starks. Swapped for Marcus Camby when it wasn't popular but it proved to be the right move (after he was fired). He can build a team whatever the emphasis. I just want to see the foundation of a dynasty, and sometimes that means having the sort of patience that Eddie preached: Sometimes patience is when you've had enough, then you wait a little more.

Ernie is a solid GM. But we have an owner with little left in the way of patience or time; axing Eddie in the dark hours of injury, when he was less at fault than he had been in the past, is a dangerous thing if the team doesn't quickly turn around. You built the team for this coach and his methods, but the fanbase and owners will only see that you built this team, if it fails there's no scapegoat left anymore.

Frankly, I've seen bad management, I'd hate to see Ernie axed. So. If we had an owner not noted as stubborn and irascible and occasionally impulsive, I'd see the EJ mercykilling as a part of a longterm plan: collect lotto chips, install coach. Select top talent. Begin a new 3 year quest for a championship with finally your own institutional philosophy.

I'm just never sure that Abe sees it that way. He hates to think he looks a fool. Would change something every year if it were up to him and the team was losing. One reason why the team hasn't had success. And again, the irony, some part of why Abe's teams keep the rep of laughingstock franchise. I pray for patience here. Again.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#149 » by nate33 » Mon Dec 1, 2008 10:00 pm

Doc, I hear you, but I just don't see any evidence that sticking to a failed plan was going to ultimately be successful. Even when healthy, this team was only a middling 45-48 win team that wasn't built for the playoffs.

It goes back to what you were saying earlier. EJ's offensive system requires specialized offensive skills that rarely come paired with defensive aptitude. If your system requires all-star caliber players at 4 or 5 positions, it's time to reexamine your system. It's just not reasonable to expect a GM to find 4 or 5 all stars.

A team built with a defense first philosophy is better able to weather injuries because even the backups can play some D. When your offensive stars get hurt, you can still win ugly and survive until your stars get healthy again.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#150 » by doclinkin » Mon Dec 1, 2008 10:17 pm

nate33 wrote:Doc, I hear you, but I just don't see any evidence that sticking to a failed plan was going to ultimately be successful. Even when healthy, this team was only a middling 45-48 win team that wasn't built for the playoffs.

It goes back to what you were saying earlier. EJ's offensive system requires specialized offensive skills that rarely come paired with defensive aptitude. If your system requires all-star caliber players at 4 or 5 positions, it's time to reexamine your system. It's just not reasonable to expect a GM to find 4 or 5 all stars.

A team built with a defense first philosophy is better able to weather injuries because even the backups can play some D. When your offensive stars get hurt, you can still win ugly and survive until your stars get healthy again.


Fair point. There's sense in that. My feeling was the puppies had sufficient offensive talent that the team could have made a better showing in the postseason given reasonable health, and that some of the defensive shortfalls were improving with chemistry and continuity despite the roster not being selected with D in mind. Injuries and inexperience killed that, where ultimately talent and depth would eventually make up the difference.

We were a 45-48 win team with a different roster or callow youth-- Ruffins not Songailas and rookies (with no Gil). We never saw the full team except that incandescent December way back when.

Now though. Hard to say. There will surely be changes, for better and for worse.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#151 » by BruceO » Tue Dec 2, 2008 7:53 pm

I'm not against Grunfeld staying. I like his eye for talent so far. His latest selections I've been happy with Nick Young, Dominic, Blatche and McGee. These guys are closer to being the prototypes for their position. It's why I love their ability and part of the reason they ahve that ability. So where the philosophy in the past has been something we've dislike and for quantifiable reasons, the present picks I'm much happier with.
We've been comparing sizes of players and defensive ability.. I think also it speaks towards offensive ability. I think all these statistics we push around are tools for measurement or to back up what we see. What if we didn't know what deshawns height and weight were. Watch him continously get burned by Lebron. What would we say? we;d say hey the other guys bigger and the other guys longer and stronger. the other guy also managed to blow past him. The next questions is by how much? We might find that Lebron is 40 pounds heavier, 4 inches taller, and moves faster laterally which may or may not be the speed we see when one blows past another.
Now these tools, beyond them they ahve to be utilized in a skilled way and thats where effort comes in. Thats where systems come in to utilize these tools. Chicago played with a toughness and strength. That was a tool they utilized. IMO they had a good guard defender in Hinrich who was bigger than most point guards. Also had luol deng who was bigger than most SF's then. Also Ben wallace had been a defensive anchor. So here theres a demonstration of strength and size. Also a toughness and focus on D.
We can look at other teams, the defensively good teams and notice patterns. Notice tools players have. What is measureable? Now some may have these tools but they may not be utlizing it well yet. Perhaps they lack strength or focus. If so, can these things be added?

Wizardynasty has spoken of length, Wingspan, Lateral speed.. I want to also add strength, Vertical, focus and maybe step into scheme after that. They have precamp measurements to add to observations coaches make. To be able to compare players. I can say that in general these NBA players are longer, have greater wing span, greater lateral speed, stronger, jump higher, and more focused than we are. Hence they are better players. I believe these differences exist between NBA players. Some differences are enough to create different results. The key here I believe is identifying them and utilization.
Does this happen? Well lets look at the C spot. Remember Howard abusing our C's? It happened why? Not because he had this magical quality of being better? It was because he was stronger. He jumped higher. Those differences between himself and McGee were enough. The difference between yao and songaila is height. Yao would abuse Songaila based on utilization of that skill. Shaq was dominant because his tools were so much greater than everyone elses in his position. Lebron is doing the same thing.
Now we can go a step further and say possibly different positions require different tools. Some come at a premium. To be a C you generally have to be taller, Bigger, stronger. It will be interesting to see how McGee uses his superior speed at that position.
Without going far. I want to bring the idea of prototypes. Looking at people doing well in a certain position or skill set in the NBA and determining what they have thats coming at a premium.
The lateral speed I think is necessary at the guard position defensively to prevent people beating you off the dribble, the length wizardynasty mentioned is necessary to block shots on perimeter and challenge shots. Strength as seen in players who are on the wing like Artest is used to nudge people off their dribble. I have to watch him closer but theres other things beyond that.

In the forward position I think length/ size and strength come at a premium. I look at the prototypes at the PF. Here I select the players who've been in final four. Dirk, Amare, KG, Gasol, Rasheed, Tim Duncan.Haslem. Now other than Haslem the norm is atleast 6 10' or an ability to play both the center and PF position. Thats the norm. There can be more beyond that but already I can see that one diference that can be used in matchups. Post Jamison up..Force a double team, kick it out. Post haywood up with Big PF, force Jamison to be on the C. require help for the C. So already he has to put in extra effort to counter all this. Offensively he's not required to counter since he delivers the blow with his speed, his flip shots and his shooting ability. But defensively he can't deflect the punches. Defensively caron can't deflect Lebron since Lebron is bigger, strong, longer than he is. McGee can't deflect strong centers yet. Songaila can't deflect big Centers.
So if a deflection of someones offense is going to happen I think certain tools must be possesed. The little differences must be adjusted for, or hidden in a way it cannot be taken advantage of. Thats where the double teams come, the fronting players on post, the flashing into a player of the screen etc. At the very least you want to make it more difficult for players to do things on you. So you want to post? I'd assume it'd be harder on a bigger player. So you want to dribble penetrate? it'll be harder on a player who can keep infront of you. These tools enhance someones ability. The lack of retards someones ability.
If someones slow laterally and physically can't go faster than a certain speed, no amount of willing himself will help him catch Usain Bolt or Santana Moss. The tools are important. Beyond that the training to utilize those very skills would be the next stage. We are all looking forward to McGee developing. It's his size, his length, his speed, his hops, his big hands (which help him catch/ another measureable thing Kwame didn't have that produced kwame catching results) these things are making us excited. He gets strong and he has all the possibilities in the world. He gets good balance with this strength and weight and whats there to stop him.

I think it's about time we begin we reach a converging point in our ideas. We are not all wrong and we have valid points and it's time to see what the combination of ideas if true would lead to. We are struggling against these other teams and somethings wrong. What is it? What weakness is being exposed? These players are not perfect, weaknesses are being exposed. How would you as a player with data on our players expose their weaknesses, which player would you morph into to expose that weakness?
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#152 » by doclinkin » Wed Dec 3, 2008 12:35 am

WizarDynasty wrote:...short armed defenders don't threaten a shooters mechanics...need i say more...--a hand in the face does not change a perimeter shooters mechannics!!-end of discussion--


I see now where you snuck back and edited this in. So let me correct you: dude, you're wrong.

Okay there, that's done.

More language? Okay but I'll keep it short. First step in good shot mechanics: locate the basket. Then balance, footwork, square up... all before you even get your elbow on line etc. But first: locate the basket. You know, as in 'see', with your actual eyes. A good face-guard, while vulnerable to picking up fouls (arms or head) tends to piss off a shooter, and can force them into a step back or fadeaway J to get a bit of distance-- which tends to cut down on drives or foul chances and is a lower % shot. And that's the point of D. Make it harder.

Point two: if the player can't see the court, he can't see his team. Eliminating passing, taking shots when there's no one to box out, etc. all lead to a less successful possession. Eyes are part of your mechanics. Otherwise Ray Charles woulda been a baller. And its' the easiest fix to do.

Another simple tactic used best by Bruce Bowen but having little to do with the arms: when your man picks up his dribble overhead and stops his feet you step inside his footwork and hold your position. Any move he makes can result in a foul if you sell it right. And again, you piss him off and get inside his head. You just have to be willing to take the Kobe Bryant elbow to the dome. Manu does this one a ton, too. Hinrich also.

This is real basic fundamentally simple stuff here, chief. I've seen quick-feet guys lock up a long-armed guy on the daily. It don't work on the playground, you need a ref to sell it to, but that's just basketball intelligence. Which is the point. Watch the Argentinian players in the league (Nocioni, Manu, not so much Walter Hermann) or watch their team in int'l ball: must be all that soccer but they play the defensive footwork game well, and can flop with the best of them, drive their opponent to a quick offensive foul or two.

To some extent I think some tactics are disliked by players for that exact reason. On the blacktop if you steal a ball or swat a shot nobody's gonna try to fight you, they got beat. But if you get up in their dribble and take a charge, or piss 'em off with a face-guard nobody's gonna call a foul. Half the defensive playbook goes out the window. But once you have a ref all the dirty tricks come back into play.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#153 » by Silvie Lysandra » Wed Dec 3, 2008 7:18 am

doclinkin wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Fair point. There's sense in that. My feeling was the puppies had sufficient offensive talent that the team could have made a better showing in the postseason given reasonable health, and that some of the defensive shortfalls were improving with chemistry and continuity despite the roster not being selected with D in mind. Injuries and inexperience killed that, where ultimately talent and depth would eventually make up the difference.

.


But given what we needed for this roster (basically 3-5 all-stars with great defense - basically, the Detroit model, which has only worked once in 3 decades), would "a better showing" mean "possible championship"

If everything had gone right for us, would be a top 3 team in the NBA? A top 8 team? Would we be challenging the Celtics this year for the East crown?
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#154 » by doclinkin » Wed Dec 3, 2008 6:56 pm

Chaos Revenant wrote:But given what we needed for this roster (basically 3-5 all-stars with great defense - basically, the Detroit model, which has only worked once in 3 decades), would "a better showing" mean "possible championship"

If everything had gone right for us, would be a top 3 team in the NBA? A top 8 team? Would we be challenging the Celtics this year for the East crown?


We beat the world champ Cetics in the season series minus one allstar. You don't think Arenas plus experienced young talent/depth, plus McGee could help? We beat the Celts with 4th quarter defense on that home and home. If we had the good health borne of a deeper more healthy roster, our defense couldn't have continued to improve? Gilbert was defending well last year before he went down again. I don't rule out the possibility that we could have won based on the Coach alone. Doc Ubuntu Rivers won a ring. He's like the Costco Eddie Jordan. Main point is: now we go a different direction. Expect adjustments while the roster is recrafted. Don't expect instant perfection. Unless we catch a number one pick. Then, who knows.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#155 » by yungal07 » Wed Dec 3, 2008 7:42 pm

WizardsDynasty -- here's proof your theory is incorrect:
Image

LOL I know that you "think" he's not a good defender because he was short with short arms. The NBA disagrees with you -- Stockton was voted to the all-NBA defensive second team 5 times. Time to give it up.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#156 » by WizarDynasty » Wed Dec 3, 2008 10:53 pm

yungal07 wrote:WizardsDynasty -- here's proof your theory is incorrect:
Image

LOL I know that you "think" he's not a good defender because he was short with short arms. The NBA disagrees with you -- Stockton was voted to the all-NBA defensive second team 5 times. Time to give it up.

this is the last time i will address this silly thought that stockton would a good defender in todays nba.
NUmber one...you can't handcheck...that means you have to use your feet in order to stay in front of guy.
Stockton and Nash are identical players and nash is an below average defender. Since stockon and Nash are both equal in their defensive abilities...if you magically put stockton in todays nba rules...stockton would be a below average defender just like nash was.
Stockton was good at steals at jumping passing lanes but he would be a horrible at defender with no handchecking rules because of his physical limitations. Nash tries hard...but answer the question..why is Nash not an average defender even though he tries hard? What are you answers?..well there you go buddy. Let's move onto another productive topic...this topic is over with. Lets talking about getting a long defensive forward who is long enough to challenge lebrons shot, strong enough to hold his position against pierce, and quick enough to stay in front of pierce.--need a S/f with at least 7'1 wingspan and some power and quick feet. Are there any available?
Build your team w/5 shooters using P. Pierce Form deeply bent hips and lower back arch at same time b4 rising into shot. Elbow never pointing to the ground! Good teams have an engine player that shoot volume (2000 full season) at 50 percent.Large Hands
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#157 » by yungal07 » Thu Dec 4, 2008 12:45 am

^^^^See this is your problem. You just speak out your ass and hope it flies. Well FYI, the handchecking rules came into play in 94-95. Guess what: Stockton still made the defensive that year and the year afterwards, even though he was well into his 30's, couldn't handcheck, and didn't have a 7'1 wingspan.

Again, you are proven wrong. Don't you get tired of that? :laugh:
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#158 » by doclinkin » Thu Dec 4, 2008 12:54 am

WizarDynasty wrote:Stockton and Nash are identical players and nash is an below average defender. Since stockon and Nash are both equal in their defensive abilities...if you magically put stockton in todays nba rules...stockton would be a below average defender just like nash was.
Stockton was good at steals at jumping passing lanes but he would be a horrible at defender with no handchecking rules because of his physical limitations.

Let's move onto another productive topic...this topic is over with.


Funny, thats' the the wiz'nasty strategy: when you're getting your tail kicked, just declare victory and move on.

No Stockton was a good defender because he could see the game better than everyone and anticipate the play. He made steals not because he was especially quick but because he could anticipate the play and intercept. Same thing on position defense. He got to the spot you were headed. Handchecking helped, but you forget Stockton played in an era when the league was cracking down on handchecks year after year. His deal was that as dirty as he was, he was always able to foul and play dirty exactly when the Refs weren't looking. He'd foul away from the ball, then make it look like you fouled him. I'd love the Wiz to learn defense from Stock, he's the definition of fundamentally sound.

The skill the Wiz guards need to learn most from Stock is the ability to fight through picks and make the pick pay for it. Punish the pick. When you see big guys wince and flinch away from the guard running at their pick, that's fundamentally good defense. And Stock was one of the best conditioned athletes in the league every year. Tough as nails, far stronger than Steve Nash. Nash with his back issues can't set picks and screens on a big like Stock would. The only thing these two share is their court vision and melanin.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#159 » by nate33 » Thu Dec 4, 2008 1:14 am

WizarDynasty wrote:Stockton and Nash are identical players and nash is an below average defender. Since stockon and Nash are both equal in their defensive abilities...if you magically put stockton in todays nba rules...stockton would be a below average defender just like nash was.

:lol:
I love this!

He states a completely unsubstantiated opinion as fact, and then uses that "fact" to "prove" the rest of his argument. The funny part is that he truly believes he's won the debate.

That's like me saying. 2 + 2 = 5. Therefore 2 + 2 + 1 = 6. It's indisputable!
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#160 » by daSwami » Thu Dec 4, 2008 2:24 pm

WizarDynasty wrote:
yungal07 wrote:WizardsDynasty -- here's proof your theory is incorrect:
Image

LOL I know that you "think" he's not a good defender because he was short with short arms. The NBA disagrees with you -- Stockton was voted to the all-NBA defensive second team 5 times. Time to give it up.

this is the last time i will address this silly thought that stockton would a good defender in todays nba.
NUmber one...you can't handcheck...that means you have to use your feet in order to stay in front of guy.
Stockton and Nash are identical players and nash is an below average defender. Since stockon and Nash are both equal in their defensive abilities...if you magically put stockton in todays nba rules...stockton would be a below average defender just like nash was.
Stockton was good at steals at jumping passing lanes but he would be a horrible at defender with no handchecking rules because of his physical limitations. Nash tries hard...but answer the question..why is Nash not an average defender even though he tries hard? What are you answers?..well there you go buddy. Let's move onto another productive topic...this topic is over with. Lets talking about getting a long defensive forward who is long enough to challenge lebrons shot, strong enough to hold his position against pierce, and quick enough to stay in front of pierce.--need a S/f with at least 7'1 wingspan and some power and quick feet. Are there any available?

fact: Nash has way longer hair than Stockton, and therfore they not identical. fact. YOU LOSE!
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