The RealGM Wizards Board Draft Thread 2008/2009

[AgentOvechkin08]

Yea it was the orlando deal, man that was a good deal.

So much for the frontcourt of Kwame and 'Wood for years to come. LOL

[Rafael122]

OK, I saw enough of Mullens to make me think he's going to be a bust in the NBA. He's your typical stiff. His feet do not leave the floor, he gets outrebounded, and he's never in position. He's basically a taller Darius Songaila.

Say no to BJ Mullens.

[spaceman_E]

Austin Daye could be the right handed Tayshaun, he is climbing up my list.

[yungal07]

DeRozan vs. Griffin tonight folks.

[Ed Wood]

Early Season Risers
Part I

pleasant surprises through the early goings of this college basketball season

Everybody knew prior to this November that Blake Griffin would kick sand in the face of any other amateur hoopster and walk away with the chump's main squeeze (that means you Psycho-T). So while it's pretty cool that he's pulling down something like two rebounds for every three shots the Sooners make nobody is going to be impressed when a couple of years from now I remind everyone that I knew Griffin could play while he toiled in obscurity out there in Norman. So, because ego is really the only reason I ever do anything, I'm instead going to look at a bunch of guys who've been playing better than you expected, or better than you realize.

James Johnson
6'9” (maybe) 240 lbs
pf/sf
Wake Forest

Coming into this season Al-Farouq Aminu drew the spotlight to the Deamon Deacons; Aminu was widely regarded as the top small forward in his class. So far this season he isn't even playing small forward, or at least no more than his talented teammate James Johnson. Johnson, the son of a former world class kickboxer, has managed to fly under the radar, despite finishing second only to Kyle Singler in for the ACC freshman of the year award.

Johnson isn't exactly either a power forward or a small forward, is slightly undersized for the former and not really enough of a perimeter threat to perfectly fit the later. But what he isn't is lacking in is athleticism. As you'd expect from the son of a world class martial artist Johnson is both very strong and very quick. Johnson runs the floor very well, and has no trouble keeping up with Wake Forest's speedy backcourt, and is a surprisingly adept ball handler, frequently bringing the ball up the court himself without turning it over or looking stupid (which disqualifies many other big men who would theoretically bring the ball up the court). Johnson is a strong rebounder on a team with several (Aminu, Chas McFarland in particular) and a decent face up scorer with range but not consistency out to twenty feet. He's also a strong finisher who relishes opportunities to dunk the ball, particularly as the trailing player on fast breaks. He uses his ball handling and pretty good vision to set up teammates for scores better than most forwards, (he has an assist rate of .2, which would be pretty average for a guard but is pretty good for a forward) but the downside of his willingness to create for himself and others is a relatively high turnover rate.

At this point the best thing Johnson could do for himself is improve his perimeter shooting enough that it becomes a significant source of points, because particularly at the college level it's really not possible for most power forwards to keep with him on the perimeter while still preventing his drives and defending him inside. His foul shooting (68% over his fist year and change with the Deacons) could also use some refinement. Johnson is also a high caliber kickboxer, so his face will probably remain sand-free. And yet, good as Johnson has been this year (he'd probably be a second team all ACC player to this point) he arguably hasn't been the best player on his own team.

Jeff Teague
6'2” 180 lbs
pg/sg
Wake Forest

Teague didn't go unnoticed as a freshman last year either (he was also on the ACC all freshman team) but he's going to get quite a bit more attention if he continues to produce at the level he has through this point of the season. Teague is currently the top scorer for the Deacons (who are really good, by the way, and and have a depth of talent somewhat comparable to what Kansas had a couple of years ago) and has as much claim to an all ACC pick as any guard in the conference outside of Ty Lawson. Like Lawson Teague is an elite athlete with the speed and explosiveness to get wherever he wants on the court. Teague is not the distributor that Lawson is, but he's similar to Mario Chalmers in my mind in that he's capable of playing point guard but is as much a scorer because of other guys (Ishmael Smith) on the roster who can also manage the offense.

One thing Teague has on Lawson is size, Teague is a solid 6'2” and can play bigger because of his wingspan and leaping ability. Offensively Teague is a solid shooter from the perimeter, but doesn't hunt for perimeter shots that frequently so effortlessly can he create shots inside. In fact Teague is sometimes too willing to take the ball to the rim, and isn't as good a finisher as his skill and athleticism suggest because he sometimes makes things hard for himself by taking shots over bigger players and while moving at top speed. Speed can also be a double edged sword for Teague, who is a good but not great ball handler and sometimes moves faster than his dribble, leading to out of control drives on occasion. Teague is also a little too good at drawing fouls inside, and sometimes looks to go to the line by shooting when he has little chance of converting the attempt.

Defensively Teague has all the ability to be a first rate defender as well, which isn't a dig at his current defense, which is pretty good. He has very quick hands and the speed to keep players in front of him to the extent anyone can with the current defensive rules in the NBA. He's also a shot blocking threat for a guard, and a solid rebounder. NBA execs would probably like to see Teague devote himself to playing point guard, and tightening up his handle. Beyond that he could stand to actually mix up his shot selection by shooting more perimeter shots, someone hitting threes at a 50% clip should really take more than two a game.

Cole Aldrich
6'11” (7'0”) 245 lbs
c/pf
Kansas

Going into this season I expected Aldrich to be this year's version of Marreese Speights, not improved so much as the same quality player he'd been previously, but while taking a much bigger role on a good team. Well it looks like I was half right, Aldrich has become the interior anchor of a good Kansas team, but he's been significantly better as a sophomore than he was as a freshman, and he was a pretty good freshman. Last year Aldrich was mostly a rebounder and a shot blocker, and he's still pretty good at both of those things (there is no shame in being the second best rebounder in this year's Big 12) but it turns out he's also a decent post scorer. Aldrich has enormous, soft hands and rarely does he fail to control a pass or snag a rebound once he's put his mitts on it. His touch is similarly sound, and when he isn't forced off of the block few college defenders have a chance. He can be pushed around, however, and will allow his man to force him into a fading shot more often than he aught to. Like most good post players he is frequently fouled and while he wasn't bad for his size at the line as a freshman he's been so good thus far this year I have to think he'll regress to the mean somewhat over the rest of the year. His jumper isn't terrible but he has a tendency to shoot from behind his head (a little bit like Marcus Camby) and he isn't reliable outside of twelve feet as of yet. He's also turned out to be a pretty good passer for a big guy; his outlets are very nice and he keeps his head up, setting up perimeter shots when he's doubled in the post.

Aldrich is such a highly regarded prospect, however, because of his ability as a defender. Aldrich is big enough to play centers straight up and his length and timing are top notch, it's much harder to score inside on the Jayhawks when he's in the game. He's also better than a lot of young big men at using his size and not taking himself out of position by biting on shot fakes when he can keep anchored and still contest the shot. He also keeps his hands busy, and is a reliable source of steals despite his size. Aldrich isn't incredibly fleet of foot for an NBA big man but he's not a plodder either and with a little more muscle could be a tough post defender and an above average center at the next level. He's also ready to assume Chris Kaman's mantle as a tremendously white big man who is a much better player than you'd guess by looking at him, but he has yet to hint at hair related talents anywhere as sinister as those of the former Central Michigan Chippewa.

Evan Turner
6'7” 200 lbs
sf/sg
Ohio State

Ken Pomeroy has observed that players who as underclassmen assume significant roles in their teams offense, for better or worse, tend to remain marquee players, and that conversely young role players rarely become stars. Apparently this isn't a hard and fast rule because Turner is already proving to be an exception. The 2007/2008 edition of Turner was a solid if turnover prone slasher and a quality defender who contributed as a glue guy for a good but not great Buckeyes team. This year's edition of Turner, while still turnover prone, seems to have developed into a very good slasher and an excellent defender, and he remains a solid defensive rebounder for a power forward much less a shooting guard.

Turner has more than enough size for a perimeter player, and plenty of athleticism that more than offsets his lack of strength in most situations. He's a good leaper and a good ball handler who serves as a secondary or even primary distributor for the Buckeyes, though he is extremely turnover prone as a result. When hunting his own shot Turner looks to penetrate more often than not and is a good finisher, particularly in transition. He's also a better outside shooter than I remember him being last year, and if his improved shooting at the line is any indication, he isn't just getting lucky. He's even hitting his threes this year, though he has the luxury of a judicious shooting shot selection, and he's only taking one three a game thus far this year.

Turner is very very good at turning his length, quickness and quick twitch athleticism into defensive production. He's managing a nearly 2.5:1 block and steal per personal foul rate this year, and even on a team with another solid wing defender in David Lighty Turner is the Buckeye's top perimeter defender, even though he sometimes has to defend post players when he and Lighty play together. Overall Turner has transformed himself from a nice second round prospect to a likely first round selection, which is too bad because it's always more fun when the guys you like are the guys nobody else knows about.

[yungal07]

Ok...we need Blake Griffin. he actually plays around the basket, something our bigs (except for Mcgee) do not. he rebounds and he's strong as hell inside. i've made up my mind.

[AgentOvechkin08]

Ok...we need Blake Griffin. he actually plays around the basket, something our bigs (except for Mcgee) do not. he rebounds and he's strong as hell inside. i've made up my mind.

I think a lot of ppl would agree with you

Including myself

[Ruzious]

Great stuff, Ed. One more player that's really stepping up is Taj Gibson, the long lean big at USC. He more than held his own against Blake Griffin last night - though he got help from his friends - including a below the belt shot (ejection) and a very hard foul (technical). Gibson has dramatically improved his scoring and shot-blocking so far this season. Draft Express currently has him going 21st... in the 2nd round. If he slips to the 2nd round, I'll be surprised, and hopefully the Wiz snatch him up. Is he strong enough to play PF in the NBA? I think he's getting there.

[DieHardWizFan]

I love Griffin and Curry but if we have the #1 I think we have to pick Curry. He looks like a franchise PG for the next decade and I don't see Griffin starting ahead of Jamison for at least a year. I won't complain if we get Griffin but man the Arenas/Curry backcourt gives me chills.

[closg00]

Curious why DX and NBAdraft.net, both have Curry way down on their boards? Curry will certainly go top-ten, perhaps top 5 even.

It would not surprise me to see Ernie take another big. BTH's value has shot-up w/o even playing this year. We may not be able to afford to keep him when his deal expires next year, and Ernie just likes drafting big-men.

[yungal07]

Great stuff, Ed. One more player that's really stepping up is Taj Gibson, the long lean big at USC. He more than held his own against Blake Griffin last night - though he got help from his friends - including a below the belt shot (ejection) and a very hard foul (technical). Gibson has dramatically improved his scoring and shot-blocking so far this season. Draft Express currently has him going 21st... in the 2nd round. If he slips to the 2nd round, I'll be surprised, and hopefully the Wiz snatch him up. Is he strong enough to play PF in the NBA? I think he's getting there.

Yep. Gibson's numbers are ridiculous this year as well : 15/11/3. If he measures out as 6'9, I wouldn't mind nabbing him with our 2nd, granted he's there.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

I love Griffin and Curry but if we have the #1 I think we have to pick Curry. He looks like a franchise PG for the next decade and I don't see Griffin starting ahead of Jamison for at least a year. I won't complain if we get Griffin but man the Arenas/Curry backcourt gives me chills.

This view might put me in the minority, but after watching USC-OU last night, I'm not completely sold on Blake Griffin as a franchise guy.

He does a lot of things well (handles the ball well for a big man, has good court vision and passing ability from the post) but, he also has a lot of holes (terrible ft %, stands around a lot off the ball when not posting up, only attacks the offensive glass selectively).

To me, he is also a bit of a tweener. I'm not sure he'd score all that well in the post against NBA centers, and I'm not convinced that he has the range to extend the floor as a 4 or 3?

He'll need to add something to his game, I think, to be an all-star NBAer.

The Wiz are so darned snakebit... it looks like they'll be suffering through an awful year with the consolation that they get to draft high in the worst draft in years... If we don't get Griffin, I'm even more worried about who else might be around.

[pancakes3]

Gibson? I was actually more impressed with Hackett and after reading more about him, I think he'll turn into a pretty good point guard if he's given the opportunity.

January 7th. Davidson-Duke. Curry goes for 50.

As enamored as we are with PFs, between AJ, Blatche, McGuire, and Opec, how many more bigs do you guys want to stockpile? Backup PG and SG are more pressing.

[BanndNDC]

Here's a what if:

what if we somehow get super lucky and win the lottery. would you trade griffin to the low down dirty rats that stole the sonics in OKC for Durant? Griffin is from OCK and plays at OU. If was a bettign man id bet big on them winning the lottery (a la Cleveland) with some Stern machinations. But putting that aside. Clearly we need a PF but a hypthetical griffin for durant spot would bring two players back home to star for their local.

right now id probably foolishly hesistate (our need for an inside presence is too great). but... throw in a green for stevenson swap and id definitely bite. roster balance be damned.

[Rafael122]

Gibson? I was actually more impressed with Hackett and after reading more about him, I think he'll turn into a pretty good point guard if he's given the opportunity.

January 7th. Davidson-Duke. Curry goes for 50.

As enamored as we are with PFs, between AJ, Blatche, McGuire, and Opec, how many more bigs do you guys want to stockpile? Backup PG and SG are more pressing.

Trade from a position of strength to strengthen another position. OPEC is cheap and I'm sure Ernie can get something for him. He's one of those guys who would need to be included in a deal to match the salaries.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Here's a what if:

what if we somehow get super lucky and win the lottery. would you trade griffin to the low down dirty rats that stole the sonics in OKC for Durant? Griffin is from OCK and plays at OU. If was a bettign man id bet big on them winning the lottery (a la Cleveland) with some Stern machinations. But putting that aside. Clearly we need a PF but a hypthetical griffin for durant spot would bring two players back home to star for their local.

right now id probably foolishly hesistate (our need for an inside presence is too great). but... throw in a green for stevenson swap and id definitely bite. roster balance be damned.

I would trade Griffin for Durant in a second.

[doclinkin]

The good: Curry went for 44 including a last-second 3pter to win over the NCState Wolfpack.

The obligatory 'boo': LeBron James sat courtside to cheer his boy Steph.

I'd really hate it if somehow S'Curry ended up next to 'Bron.

[Silvie Lysandra]

Well, a guy who can't shoot fts and doesn't have much of a midrange game...hmm, what coach would you love to work with that?

Hoplafication, man.

[pancakes3]

who are you talking about? not griffin or curry i hope.

[lupin]

Quick question: when someone talks about the 2009 Draft or draft pick, do they mean the draft that takes place in 2009 or the draft that follows the 2009/2010 season?