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Long Term Plan? (merged threads)

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WizarDynasty
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#181 » by WizarDynasty » Mon Dec 8, 2008 2:25 am

doclinkin wrote:
WizarDynasty wrote:our gm doesn't have the gonads to pull a trade like that off. caron's lane agility is 12.15--aka lateral acceleration--dominic's is 10.95 ....[and similar jibber jabber]....


A long minute ago you were complaining 'too bad there's no measure of lateral quickness' and now after I told ya, you've become the apostle of lane agility?

But somehow everybody else is the idiot... There's a saying in my family "It's always the thief who shouts he's been robbed" if he misplaces his glasses or whatever. An innocent man assumes he's simply lost his shxt. Ernie ain't the moron, consider maybe you've just lost your shxt.

When it comes to this issue: you're gonna take the lane agility drill of Caron from when he was coming out of college, where he played power forward half the time, and at a combine when he was sorta pudgy from playing with bulk in the post, had an ankle injury if I recall it right-- then you're gonna use that for his lifetime limit on his speed, swiftness etc. When he's spent two offseasons getting into 'the best shape of his life'.

For real you have to get off the 'physical stat crack'. Caron Butler is an allstar because kid is a baller, he has powerful BBall IQ and remarkable size for strength ratio. Anytime you start to assess Jared Jeffries as a better player than CB3 --for whatever reason-- you have to shxtcan that measurement and start over. The anthropometrics etc hint towards a players ability, provide a range of potential, but rarely prove the limit of a player's ability. 'Size of the fight in the dog' gots to be taken account for.

(Also, in the interest of education: the lane agility drill ain't just lateral quix. It's a 'box run'. Start at the elbow extended, sprint to the baseline, shuffle to the cone, backpedal to elbow extended, shuffle to the start cone, then reverse. Wait a sec..... okay here's a link with a vid)

Until caron can bring it on both ends of hte courts he is an "incomplete baller" not a true allstar. Caron has not been a true baller on "both sides of the court" his entire career. The lane agility drill should have shown everyone His 12.15 should have been a warning to Grunfeld that Caron has poor agility and shotblocking skills on the perimeter per 48 minutes. A true allstar should be able to dominate both sides of court-a true allstar--dominates on both sides of the ball during the playoffs--. Jeffries was no allstar but he was dominant when defending on the perimeter because of the basketball talents he was born with. CAron's lateral acceleration, aka demonstrated lane--has only gotten worse based on his ability to keep up with playoff S/G's and S/F's. on the perimeter as well as his blocks per 48 minutes relative to other playoff s/fs.
I said lateral acceleration--how fast you can reach max speed in a short period of time, and how fast you can slow down your momentum...(that's different from quick--if a truck can take off just as quickly as motorcycle--then that truck is exceptional--Caron is a truck on perimeter trying to guard motorcyles) something that requires athleticism in your legs. Caron is still pudgy by the way which is why he has so many charges and is poor ball handler in transition. And "Ernie is an idiot when it comes to evaluating a players perimeter defense ability..he's good at offense--but building a team with one dimensional starters does not get you to championship--which is whole point of playing?--or that just the loser washington bullets mentality--lets just play to get to playoffs if we are lucky?"..apparently you don't really see the difference. Ernie can't either.
In most playoff matchups-Caron comes off the bench to give you an offensive spark since he is usually a horrible defensive matchup problem and doesn't give you much of an advantage offensively versus most playoff s/f. Same with Jamison. Matter of fact, that's exactly what lakers did when they had them on their team and i think that's what the dallas mavericks did with Jamison. I guess they are example of how to build teams that can make it at least the western championship game.
Build your team w/5 shooters using P. Pierce Form deeply bent hips and lower back arch at same time b4 rising into shot. Elbow never pointing to the ground! Good teams have an engine player that shoot volume (2000 full season) at 50 percent.Large Hands
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#182 » by doclinkin » Mon Dec 8, 2008 2:31 am

From the Chicago thread, but more appropriate here:

WizarDynasty wrote:
nate33 wrote:I've tried to resist but I just can't take it anymore. It's like arguing with a child.

Ignore List time.

I assume this guy nate is referring to one of my statements, yet this guy thinks that blk/48 minutes has nothing to do with perimeter defense. Until your thinking shows an ability to interpret what blk/48 min means for perimeter players, i advise you to ignore my post to..its a lil over your head...it a defensive stat...something alot of wiz fans and even the GM grunfeld fail to fully understand. But some realgm wiz fan poster actually get it..and can see that caron has poor lateral acceleration and lane agility--(even for a s/f) which is why he normally gets pooped on each night on the perimeter. But somebody like you can't evaluate both offensive and defensive stats together to get the entire picture and overall playoff value of a player. But hopefully it will strike you one day.


Here's the thing. nate already explained that your preferred measure of perimeter defense aint' worth much. Or anyway it doesn't register strongly in any real-world result of opponent points scored. nate explained that opponent eFG% is a far more useful measure of team defense.

Teaching again now-- eFG%: effective FG percent. That means, (quoting basketball reference.com):
Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal.
Or if you prefere to isolate perimeter shots only, you could look at opponent 3 pt%.

Problem is your 'blocks per 40' measure has no correlation with players who are noted to be excellent defenders. Among SF's for instance James Posey, Tayshaun Prince, Bruce Bowen, don't show up in the top 50 in blocks per 40mins (pace adjusted). Nor do the teams best at defending the three point shot (last year: Celtics, Pistons, Spurs) have perimeter players with high blocks per 40.

(Or per 48. Most reputable stat sources prefer the per40 or per36 stat since that's the reasonable number of minutes you might expect an all-star to play. And 'pace-adjusted' tweaks the league-wide stats to account for teams that play slower than others, or faster, both).

You made an assertion not backed by fact. Then call everyone else an idiot if they refuse to prove your point for you. Problem is in nate you pissed off one of the few on the site with the inclination and skill to actually untangle the data and show you stats that matter. In messing around with player pairs data etc he could probably figure out which players have the best result in opponent 3pt% which is what you're really looking for. (Eventually, if he had less of a life).

BUt no, again you'd rather assert your ignorance then declare victory.

Here, In the interest of general education, I'm gonna keep you busy for a while. Take a look one of my favorite toys in the DX database of sortable stats. If you're interested in defensive stats let me introduce you to the measure of Blocks + Steals per personal foul. Play around with that for a while to measure actual game effect instead of players girth and heft and thickness or whatever.

But seriously, if you don't know what the hell you're talking about, stop calling everyone else an idiot. You've got a few ideas I agree with since I've said them years ago, but I find myself arguing against you just because you take 'em waaay to far, and hold onto them long after they're proven wrong. You learn alot more if you admit your error and re-craft your argument when you've gotten your statistical ass kicked.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#183 » by WizarDynasty » Mon Dec 8, 2008 2:47 am

doclinkin wrote:From the Chicago thread, but more appropriate here:

WizarDynasty wrote:
nate33 wrote:I've tried to resist but I just can't take it anymore. It's like arguing with a child.

Ignore List time.

I assume this guy nate is referring to one of my statements, yet this guy thinks that blk/48 minutes has nothing to do with perimeter defense. Until your thinking shows an ability to interpret what blk/48 min means for perimeter players, i advise you to ignore my post to..its a lil over your head...it a defensive stat...something alot of wiz fans and even the GM grunfeld fail to fully understand. But some realgm wiz fan poster actually get it..and can see that caron has poor lateral acceleration and lane agility--(even for a s/f) which is why he normally gets pooped on each night on the perimeter. But somebody like you can't evaluate both offensive and defensive stats together to get the entire picture and overall playoff value of a player. But hopefully it will strike you one day.


Here's the thing. nate already explained that your preferred measure of perimeter defense aint' worth much. Or anyway it doesn't register strongly in any real-world result of opponent points scored. nate explained that opponent eFG% is a far more useful measure of team defense.

Teaching again now-- eFG%: effective FG percent. That means, (quoting basketball reference.com):
Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal.
Or if you prefere to isolate perimeter shots only, you could look at opponent 3 pt%.

Problem is your 'blocks per 40' measure has no correlation with players who are noted to be excellent defenders. Among SF's for instance James Posey, Tayshaun Prince, Bruce Bowen, don't show up in the top 50 in blocks per 40mins (pace adjusted). Nor do the teams best at defending the three point shot (last year: Celtics, Pistons, Spurs) have perimeter players with high blocks per 40.

(Or per 48. Most reputable stat sources prefer the per40 or per36 stat since that's the reasonable number of minutes you might expect an all-star to play. And 'pace-adjusted' tweaks the league-wide stats to account for teams that play slower than others, or faster, both).

You made an assertion not backed by fact. Then call everyone else an idiot if they refuse to prove your point for you. Problem is in nate you pissed off one of the few on the site with the inclination and skill to actually untangle the data and show you stats that matter. In messing around with player pairs data etc he could probably figure out which players have the best result in opponent 3pt% which is what you're really looking for. (Eventually, if he had less of a life).

BUt no, again you'd rather assert your ignorance then declare victory.

Here, In the interest of general education, I'm gonna keep you busy for a while. Take a look one of my favorite toys in the DX database of sortable stats. If you're interested in defensive stats let me introduce you to the measure of Blocks + Steals per personal foul. Play around with that for a while to measure actual game effect instead of players girth and heft and thickness or whatever.

But seriously, if you don't know what the hell you're talking about, stop calling everyone else an idiot. You've got a few ideas I agree with since I've said them years ago, but I find myself arguing against you just because you take 'em waaay to far, and hold onto them long after they're proven wrong. You learn alot more if you admit your error and re-craft your argument when you've gotten your statistical ass kicked.

if you are going to quote me, at least add my link in to espn for blks/48 min which conveniently ignore..which shows that james posey was top ten among s/f for blk/48 minutes...and I think boston won the championship last year? But I guess adding my linking which backs up my conclusion would not help your argument? And accessing of calling people idiots "its pretty childish" Now if you have come to that conclusion on your own..well that's has nothing to do with me...but don't say i called you an idiot just because your statements relative to my conclusions supported by stats poitns in that direction. I don't go around calling people "idiots" my argument is that caron is horrible "perimeter defender that needs to be replaced"--his blk/48 minutes backs up my claim.
here it is
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistic ... =48&pos=sf
I don't control is blk/48 minutes relative to other starting s/f playoff forwards. Here it is. He ranked 16th close to last against all playoff s/f. This proves caron is a below average perimeter defender because he is the bottom percentile of starting playoff s/f.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistic ... =48&pos=sf

by the way..james posey and tayshaun prince lebron james--for some reason seems to be at the top...and your man caron is at the bottom..i guess that no correlation argument just fell out the window..but i am all ears if you want to explain why caron is ranked above any of these playoff s/f. I already said..he is not there because he is a horrible perimeter defender.
Build your team w/5 shooters using P. Pierce Form deeply bent hips and lower back arch at same time b4 rising into shot. Elbow never pointing to the ground! Good teams have an engine player that shoot volume (2000 full season) at 50 percent.Large Hands
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#184 » by Kanyewest » Mon Dec 8, 2008 3:16 am

never mind...
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#185 » by doclinkin » Mon Dec 8, 2008 3:31 am

WizarDynasty wrote:if you are going to quote me, at least add my link in to espn for blks/48 min which conveniently ignore..which shows that james posey was top ten among s/f for blk/48 minutes...


Well mostly because it's statistically worthless. You're saying he was in the top ten SF's of a pool of 16 teams. That's slicing the cheese pretty thin. In the regular season, pace adjusted per 40 minutes he blocked .4 shots. WAAAAY down the chart among SF's. But he was a nasty defender all year 'round, not jsut the playoffs. It had nothing to do with his ability to block a shot. Unless you think Mike Dunleavy was a far better defender than Posey. Ditto Jeff Green and Matt Barnes. And all of the above are leagues better than Bruce Bowen.

WizarDynasty wrote:I said lateral acceleration--how fast you can reach max speed in a short period of time, and how fast you can slow down your momentum...(that's different from quick--


Actually no. In scouting the distinction is made between 'speed' and 'quickness'. Quickness specifically refers to things like stop-start, change of direction, change of velocity, lateral shiftiness, etc. 'Speed' is your straightahead sprint.

Thing is when you're stat addicted you have to do these mental gymnastics to force the stats to prove your point. That's called confirmation bias: trying to force the stats to agree with your theory instead of learning from the stats with an open mind. If Lane agility (measured before the rookie season, never adjusted) were the true measure of ability, then clearly Jason Kopono would be a better defender than Brandon Roy.

Oh and Caron Butler is chubby:
Image

Right.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#186 » by WizarDynasty » Mon Dec 8, 2008 4:16 am

doclinkin wrote:Well mostly because it's statistically worthless.


out of playoff small forwards caron butlers ranks close to last among this group and yet you make statement that this information is statistically worthless. Adding to that fact, the wizards allowed close to highest 3pt percentage in the league?...is that also just a useless stat? I don't
know.
doclinkin wrote:ou're saying he was in the top ten SF's of a pool of 16 teams

But these top 16 playoffs teams are all that really matter if your goal is to win a championship. If your goal is just to get the playoffs and lose in the first round...well Grunfeld..mission accomplished.
Lets make sure you get this straight. the key word you are missing is "perimeter". Last year...Jeff Green was a far better perimeter defender than Bruce Bowen. Lets get this straight so we don't get things confusing. In the year 2007-2008--http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistics?stat=nbablocks&qual=true&sort=blks&league=nba&split=0&season=2009&seasontype=2&avg=48&pos=sfJeff Green was a better perimeter defender than Bruce Bowen. Bruce Bowen defense has fallen off since his championship years which is expected. The numbers say Jeff Green is way better defending on the perimeter. Jeff Green does have a 7'1 wingspan for a small forward...which already makes him defensively talented at the small forward position. If you have greater than 7'1 wingspan and you are small forward.http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-dra ... sort=..you have the tools to be an elite shotblocking perimeter defender. It's not hard to see why Jeff Green is a better...."perimeter defender in 2007-2008 compared to bruce bowen who is getting up there in age at 37. Even at age 37, he is 3 times better than caron. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistic ... 8&pos=sfso you can check out the links to see why.
pg-6'9--you can be a shotblocking pg-6'11--you can be dominant at shotblocking sg--7'1 wingspan--dominant blocking s/f--7'4--P/F and Centers. I think Green falls into that category.
by the way..there is a huge difference between accelerating by sliding your feet sideways...versus accelerating sprinting forward...-Steve Nash..is great at accelerating forward and backward--horrible at accelerating sideways--which is why he is such a bad defender--a sprinkle of knowledge--so you can understand difference between quickness versus what's needed to defend against dribble penetration--(hint--forward and backward speed are not needed to stop dribble penetration)
CAron is horrible perimeter defender and needs to be replaced...
Build your team w/5 shooters using P. Pierce Form deeply bent hips and lower back arch at same time b4 rising into shot. Elbow never pointing to the ground! Good teams have an engine player that shoot volume (2000 full season) at 50 percent.Large Hands
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#187 » by doclinkin » Mon Dec 8, 2008 5:37 am

WizarDynasty wrote:Lets make sure you get this straight. the key word you are missing is "perimeter". Last year...Jeff Green was a far better perimeter defender than Bruce Bowen. Lets get this straight so we don't get things confusing. In the year 2007-2008--http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistics?stat=nbablocks&qual=true&sort=blks&league=nba&split=0&season=2009&seasontype=2&avg=48&pos=sfJeff Green was a better perimeter defender than Bruce Bowen. Bruce Bowen defense has fallen off since his championship years which is expected. The numbers say Jeff Green is way better defending on the perimeter.


Gee the perimeter, that means like, the outside, right? Like the 3pt shot and stuff?

Hey you know who was also really good at blocking shots on the perimeter? Kevin Durant. And that guy has a huge standing reach, like twelve foot nine or something! Know what! They even play on the same team, KD was at two guard even, that's nutso-big! So really they gotta be like the best outside defenders in the world! Seattle has to have been like #! Numba one in defense against he outside shot, like what you call the perimeter and stuff!!!

No? They were 2nd to last against the 3pt shot? Really? And the Pacers (with per40 shotblocking madman perimeter swing player Danny Granger) was tied for last with the Wiz?

Well clearly San Antonio with Bruce Bowen having fallen off the table must also have been doody. Right? No? They were 3rd best league wide? Well, shoot. That kinda leaves that theorem gutshot now doesn't it...

(Check'opponent stats' here. Sort by 3pt %).

It may be counter-intuitive but actually one of the best correlations for exterior defense is a strong defender underneath. When you have a mean presence in the paint your peripheral players can play tight against the outside shot and not worry if they get beat off the dribble. ('Playing tight' means chest to chest, footwork is more important than hands here, you're just getting inside their comfort zone. Yeah it also helps if you also have long arms, but it ain't necessary).

You want your defenders to drive past and take a defended/rushed pull-up jumper inside the arc since it's a lower % shot but you get no extra points for it. That's why posters on here get apoplectic about players collapsing in the lane: no player in the league has the ups and arms to challenge a perimeter shot from inside the paint. Okay JaVale McGee every rare now'n'again-- but he's a total freak.

Caron has more than sufficient footspeed, and long arms to stick to his man on the outside and not worry as much if they blow by him. Provided of course he has Bigs inside who can threaten the shot/clog the lanes and bang the boards to collect a miss. Is Caron an elite defender? He's not and vnever will be, though his natural cunning means he can make up for his slower quick twitch footspeed by anticipating passing lanes etc. Same ball smarts that in a good scheme will have him using the force rules to funnel the opponent to the Big Man inside the baseline. So if you get beat, you get beat to the side where you know you have help. Pretty basic stuff, but it hasn't been emphasized as much here.

And that's where teams like the Celts and Spurs excel. And also where a defensive coach would drool looking at some of the part the Wiz have to work with. Brendan is a solid center, tough to budge, smart, talkative on defense, watches tape on his match-up, knows how to get in their head. JaVale is a phenomenon. Good motor as well. DMac has a nose for the ball. Caron and Gil have lightning quick hands. Nick Young is still earning a clue, but he's got the physical prototype of an ideal big 2-guard, just needs reps and instruction and a hardass coach since he clearly doesn't have the natural instinct for D-- no competitive hate. Andray has a nice small mean streak at times, Darius carries a ton of pride. There are parts to work with. DeShawn ditto.

A crafty scheme-designer with a good feel for substitutions can definitely shade our weaknesses and maximize strengths, but it will take a couple years to really see fruit.

forward and backward speed are not needed to stop dribble penetration


Uh, yeah, backward speed is. If you can keep in front of your man, you're set. Almost nobody can run as fast backwards as they can forwards, but the best defenders keep pace. At times the ability to drop back then recover (especially for those long-armed types in a zone situation) is as important as the ability for a big to show and recover on the pick and roll trap.

As for Nash, he's not quick, admits it, the trick with him on offense is that he never stops moving, it's like with a car, sometimes your zero-to-60 is less important than your 60-to-80 acceleration. He stays in constant motion so he doesn't have to start-up from a stand-still. Doesn't help him on defense much though.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#188 » by WizarDynasty » Mon Dec 8, 2008 9:41 am

^^^^good post but caron is still a horrible one on one defender, and can't block a perimeter shot to save his life. He used to be alot better. We need to replace him with a shotblocking s/f that can hit the three and have caron come off the bench for an offensive spark.
Oh by the way..when you are guarding your man on the perimeter, you slide--keyword here is "slide with acceleration and deacceleration" "slide" your feet sideways and keep your chest in front...you don't backpedal. When a guard is bursting...you have to be able to burst and slide at teh same time faster than the guard driving. If you have poor agility...you normally get blown by..and weaken your team defense...something that happens to wiz every play because of poor perimeter defenders. Not only is caron extremely slow at this athletic maneuver of lateral acceleration..slding --moving to teh left and right to prevent his man from blowing past him...caron has to play way off of his man to account for his slow speed..and this tremendous space he gives..exposes caron poor wingspan for s/f.....a prototypical long winspan s/f could get away with giving such a big cushion because he can recover and block a perimeter players shot...and this is demonstrated by this statistic
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistic ... =48&pos=sf
--his wingspan keep him from blocking perimeter jumpshots. Its a shame that he ranks so poorly amongst playoff small forwards.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistic ... =48&pos=sf
But he just wasn't poor with attributes needed. Playing powerforward in college really hindered his defensive abilities i assume.
Adn you seem to forget that if you have above average lateral acceleration, you dont' get "blown by" if you stick to your man tightly...hopefully that sheds some light on why we need shotblocking s/f. The longer you wingspan, the further away you can play your man and still block his shot. We are seeing a lil bit of this with nick young and his tremendous wingspan, he can play off his man further than the average defender and his wingspan allows him to recover. We had it back when jeffries was here. You never see this with jamison and caron..because both are handicapped in the wingspan and defensive lateral acceleration department,...and they can't use their tremendous wingspans to hide their slow lateral acceleration.
ITs really a deadly defensive combination for a perimeter player. To have two starters who are both handicapped in these two critical areas and both players defend alot of perimeter. POst players can get away with it, and i assume caron played powerforward like dominic mcguire back in college which is why he didn't strenghth his agility while his bones and muscles where still molding to physical forces and growing. I would recommend that you post your link for oklahoma allowing a higher opponent 3pt percentage that wizards. We have one of the worst perimeters defenses in the league.
Build your team w/5 shooters using P. Pierce Form deeply bent hips and lower back arch at same time b4 rising into shot. Elbow never pointing to the ground! Good teams have an engine player that shoot volume (2000 full season) at 50 percent.Large Hands
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#189 » by doclinkin » Mon Dec 8, 2008 5:51 pm

WizarDynasty wrote:We are seeing a lil bit of this with nick young and his tremendous wingspan, he can play off his man further than the average defender and his wingspan allows him to recover. We had it back when jeffries was here. You never see this with jamison and caron..because both are handicapped in the wingspan and defensive lateral acceleration department,...and they can't use their tremendous wingspans to hide their slow lateral acceleration.

ITs really a deadly defensive combination for a perimeter player. To have two starters who are both handicapped in these two critical areas and both players defend alot of perimeter.

i assume caron played powerforward like dominic mcguire back in college which is why he didn't strenghth his agility while his bones and muscles where still molding to physical forces and growing.


See here's the thing. Even when you're saying my own opinions back to me I end up disagreeing with you because you lard the post with all this pseudoscience and gobbledygook. If playing power forward like Dom McGuire will deform your musculature and prevent you from developing the lane agility to defend the perimeter or block shots. Well shoot, why's Dom got the swift lane agility measurements, and how come he blocked a ton of shots in college even while playing a swing position from 2-guard to SF to PF.

And you don't 'assume' Caron played PF in college. You know that because I told you. Because I watched the team. At UConn Caron played combo forward, almost a point forward, using power on the blocks, passing from the perimeter, using his midrange game and muscle. And as someone who has watched him since he was a freshman (and saw clips of him at Maine Central) he has improved his quickness considerably over the past two years. He's leaned up. There's less lag time in his footspeed reaction. The diet and nutiritional changes help, I'd suspect the yoga will help as well if he keeps it up. Core flexibility and strength is often key here.

But Caron has above average _wingspan_ for a SF. A full inch wider reach than your average small forward. Pretty ridiculous considering he measured 6'5" tall in socks. HIs long arms and strength are what allow him to play SF even if he's got 2-guard Height. He's just got about an inch shorter _standing reach_ than most SF's. Which is your point. Even if you don't know it.

I would recommend that you post your link for oklahoma allowing a higher opponent 3pt percentage that wizards. We have one of the worst perimeters defenses in the league


Seattle, not OKlahoma. They hadn't yet been ripped away from the beautiful Northwest. And I did post the link, you just don't know how to use it. Click on the basketball reference site I linked to above. Then scroll down to Opponent stats. Then click on the heading for three point %. Then click it again to show them ranked by worst to first.

Indiana was tied with the Wizards for worst 3pt% last year, Seattle was .001 % better. Indiana has standout shotblocking per40 SF's like Danny Granger and Dunleavy -- both better than James Posey or whomever. Seattle has shotblocking per40 SF's like Jeff Green and KD. Both teams were equally 'ass' in comparison to DC. So clearly your pet stat doesn't effectively measure what you think it does.

Where I agree with you is that long arms and quick feet will tend to help make defense easier. But you haven't found an effective measure of it. And the truth is, bad habits will tend to negate any advantage given by long hands and quick feet, Nick Young was a horrible defender for the Wiz last year. He's getting far better this year because he's learning to take advantage of his gifts.

That's the point: habits, experience, playing fundamentally sound ball, anticipation, smart schemes etc. These things can be learned. Occasionally length/athleticism helps you defend better by accident than if you had the smarts and habits but not the wherewithal to apply it. But all the athleticism in the world does you no good if you don't use it right. Ask scrub Gerald Green.

And while I tend to agree that the Twan Caron combo leaves us vulnerable on the perimeter, it has less to do with Caron's height and more to do with Tawn's inability to intimidate in the post. Players who blow by on the outside don't stop short to jerk a pull-up jumper, they just blow right by to the rack and pick up a foul from the Big who is scrambling to recover. And other perimeter players are watching for it, waiting to collapse to help out instead of simply marking their man tight. An evil-tempered shotblocking 4 would help our perimeter Defense more than any shotblocking 3.

Caron has the tools to be an adequate defender, occasionally quite good (steals etc) under the right scheme. Doesn't matter if they blow past him, as long as he can run them off the three line. But the team has some awkward chemistry issues in other ways. Most of this would be fixed if we had a good Big reliable, nasty frontcourt power four good enough to displace Jamison to the bench as the consummate 6th man scorer. Right now though he's our most important player. Nobody else is scoring or rebounding sufficiently to make it possible to bump him.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#190 » by yungal07 » Mon Dec 8, 2008 6:11 pm

i love how wizardsdynasty just ignores all the proof of his theries being wrong, like it was never said. he just glosses over it and then keeps on saying the same nonsensical junk again.

seattle's crappy defense, jared jeffries' inability to stop lebron james, the bulls lack of "perimter shotblocking" despite being an excellent defensive team...he just ignores and says the same bull over and over. the guy is like a robot that's programmed by a idiot.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#191 » by doclinkin » Mon Dec 8, 2008 6:26 pm

I like Wiz'nasty. He's my favorite Claven. If a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, Wiz'nasty is a crate of Chinese fireworks on a flatbed truck driven by a chainsmoking blind guy with Tourette's syndrome down Georgia avenue going 90 mph. No idea where he's going, but there's bound to be a spectacular finish.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#192 » by pancakes3 » Mon Dec 8, 2008 7:19 pm

everybody likes to be heard. i spent a good 20 minutes typing this up in the 'zards/bulls thread but apparently this is the one where the flame kept burning. you don't have to read it, i just like to hear the sound of myself typing.

Ok. So you're not saying that Jared Jeffries is a better basketball player than Butler. You're not saying that Jared Jeffries is even a very good defensive player. What you ARE saying is that Jared Jeffries is a better shotblocker, thus making him more desirable if you want to match up against Lebron James. I'll be willing to agree with that. If you want a player to guard Lebron James, I would choose Jeffries over Caron. The evidence is also there that Jeffries is twice the shotblocker that Butler is (7 blocks for jeffries in 2006 vs the Cavs, only 1 blocks for lebron last year).

However,
1 - blk/48 for a perimeter player doesn't signal quickness or lateral acceleration. I would contend that it has a lot more to do with wingspan (which JJ has over Butler by almost a good 6+ inches) and reach. As a perimeter player, the opportunity to block a shot is far and few in between. THe offensive man is either taking a jumper, or he's blown by the defender and he's going for a layup. In either case, he has a head start. To compensate, athleticism kicks in and it negates the head start, and so you tip the jumper faster than the offensive player can release, or the defender is so long that he is able to come from behind and reach for the block. OR the defender sneaks in on help defense and catches a big guy off guard. I can see Jeffries accomplishing the first two scenarios a lot more likely than butler. I can't see how any of the scenarios prove that butler can't keep his man in front of him.

2 - The playoffs in question, the 2005-2006 playoffs, the last that JJ spend with the wizards was coincidentally Caron's first with the wizards. In the infamous Damon Jones game 7, Caron had 20 rebounds. Jeffries, at the PF spot had 6. The numbers come out to CB with 18.5rb/48 min, and JJ with 8rb/48 mins. Am I right to say that Butler is one of the greatest glass men in the history of the game, and that he is twice the rebounder that Jeffries is, and that JJ lacks hand-eye coordination, or finger dexterity to properly hunt down rebounds?

Well that's not fair. The one game numbers is too small a sample space. But then again, part of the original contention was to examine only the data that reflects how Butler performs against Lebron James and for that series Butler pulled down 63 boards compared to JJ's 36.

The point is, if you have an agenda, you can pull out numbers for a lot of different places. I don't believe that your reasoning is sound in using blks/48min as a measure of being able to stay in front of a man. If you want to see who did a better job on Lebron, the solution is pretty empirical - examine the net PERs and pretty much anyone who goes against Lebron has a crappy net PER. JJ's net PER in 2006 against lebron was (9.4-25.8) = -15.4. Butler's net PER in 2008 against lebron was (18.6-29.6) = -11. So, factoring the defensive deficiencies of Caron, the offensive deficiencies of JJ, Caron is better matched up with Lebron. The only problem with this method is that it assumes that 2006 Lebron is equally as good as 2008 Lebron.

So in short, i conscienciously object.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#193 » by WizarDynasty » Tue Dec 9, 2008 1:04 am

is there a way we could possibly trade caron for outlaw and fernandez? I heard some propose that trade a while back and I think it would help fill the huge void that Jeffries created, allow us to kick dominic to the curve and maybe draft a decent s/f in the draft...allowing blatche nick young and blatche to be the number and number two options on the team with mcgee evolving into the third option. Outlaw and young would shutdown the easy perimeter shots and we would have a combo of haywood, blatche, and Mcgee to shut down anyone who happens to get my Travis and Young..since they will be able to provide a decent buffer against the drive and still challenge shots..(no more charges, no more bumbled dribbles, no watching starters get beat off the dribbles by slow guy like hedo. Outlaw still won't be able to matchup withe strength of lebron but he is certainly a better shot blocker, quicker and longer. .something our current set up does not allow because of our defensively handicapped starters.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#194 » by hands11 » Tue Dec 9, 2008 1:54 am

Bottom line.

Caron isn't going anywhere. He is worth more to us probably then to another team because he is one of..if not..THE ... team leader.

Also, CB is one of a special class of blended talent that averaged something like

22pts, 6-7 rbs, 4 -6 asst, 2 steals blah blah blah. I can't remember what it is exactly but Phil and Buck are talking about it all the time.

Now if he was featured as a SG posting these numbers, I think he would be worth a lot more.

But that being said.

He is #2 behind LaBron so I guess that would make you worth something.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#195 » by WizarDynasty » Tue Dec 9, 2008 2:13 am

car
hands11 wrote:
hands11 wrote:Bottom line.

Caron isn't going anywhere. He is worth more to us probably then to another team because he is one of..if not..THE ... team leader.

Also, CB is one of a special class of blended talent that averaged something like

22pts, 6-7 rbs, 4 -6 asst, 2 steals blah blah blah. I can't remember what it is exactly but Phil and Buck are talking about it all the time.

Now if he was featured as a SG posting these numbers, I think he would be worth a lot more.

But that being said.

He is #2 behind LaBron so I guess that would make you worth something.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinge ... onType%3d2

CAron has not lead this team out the first round. the fact that somone could even mention him and Lebron is laughable. Lebron blocks shots. Lebron scores at will. Caron does not score at will and is and always will be a role player. You don't make a role player your team leader which is why jordan got fired. CAron is not a 50 percent field goal shooter. Caron is pure offensive player who only performs on one side of the court..and he can't even create his own shot. Lebron went to line 181 times- butler 101. blocks for lebron 22--butler 4===LMAO in 17 games. He is non existent on the defensive side..has chronic knees problems like hughes...except for the occassional gamble and jump the passing lane.If we can get outlaw for him, grunfeld would be named GM of the year.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#196 » by sashae » Tue Dec 9, 2008 2:20 am

Well, I'm speechless.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#197 » by BruceO » Tue Dec 9, 2008 4:32 am

the proposed trade about outlaw and rudy is in the trade forum. I've advanced it where we can get Kapono and Battier in addition to Outlaw giving us a real perimeter defender and the best pure three point shooter in the league for spacing. So look at it there, I've been criticized for leaving that post everywhere. I thought it was relevant to several threads.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#198 » by Kanyewest » Tue Dec 9, 2008 5:28 am

I've only got one question from Doc/Dynasty debate. What's gobbledygook?
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#199 » by doclinkin » Tue Dec 9, 2008 5:57 am

Kanyewest wrote:I've only got one question from Doc/Dynasty debate. What's gobbledygook?


Blather. Jibber-jabber. Horsefeathers. Shxt that makes no sense, but is just trying to sound smart with jargon and inapt terminology. Talks alot, but ain't saying nothing. Nonsense. Also apparently the native tongue of the Goblin nation.
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Re: Long Term Plan? 

Post#200 » by crackhed » Tue Dec 9, 2008 11:58 am

WizarDynasty wrote:CAron has not lead this team out the first round. the fact that somone could even mention him and Lebron is laughable. Lebron blocks shots. Lebron scores at will. Caron does not score at will and is and always will be a role player. You don't make a role player your team leader which is why jordan got fired. CAron is not a 50 percent field goal shooter. Caron is pure offensive player who only performs on one side of the court..and he can't even create his own shot. Lebron went to line 181 times- butler 101. blocks for lebron 22--butler 4===LMAO in 17 games. He is non existent on the defensive side..has chronic knees problems like hughes...except for the occassional gamble and jump the passing lane.If we can get outlaw for him, grunfeld would be named GM of the year.

check out these write-ups on outlaw, butler and james
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