The RealGM Wizards Board Draft Thread 2008/2009

[pancakes3]

the one that follows the 2008/2009 season. it's whatever year the draft itself takes place.

[Da HomeTeam]

Greg Monroe, Tyler Smith, Ty Lawson, .

[Ruzious]

Pancakes boy, Chase Buddinger, continues to impress - showing a better all-around game and getting stronger during the off-season. He looks like he could play some SF in the NBA. And he's well over 50% - 2's and 3's. Of course, the schedule gets tougher. But this guy is basically Rip Hamilton - only he's actually bigger. I think he's bigger than his listed size - I'd guess 6'8 215. He's just got to convince people that he'll be able to defend at the NBA level.

[Downtown]

Ruzious, Budinger is a guy that might have been a low lotto pick last draft if he stayed in. I think he's a bit underated and will make a very good role player off the bench some day in the NBA as a sixth man type. I thought he looked good last year and should be a good pick for some team next June.

And to BanndNDC, as a longtime Seattle Supersonics fan, going back to the seventies, I thank you for your words about OKC. There's very few of us left that have been on this site cheering for Seattle for years, but when I see that there's still support out there I appreciate it.

[pancakes3]

People underestimate Bud because he's a white guy but he has freakish athleticism. People wrote farmar off easily too and he's turning into a pretty good player in his own right. Like farmar, Bud has the basketball skills to go with his world class hops, which makes him a complete basketball player. The athleticism is the difference between Farmar and Kapono, or Budinger and Luke Walton. As for defense, I'm sure he's not terrible just based on his athletic ability, but I wouldn't count on him to be "good" either. However, that's the case with most guards- offensive talent, or unskilled and forced to buckle down on defense. I think the offensive upside is just too good to pass up even at the lotto pick. However this will be tested sunday when he plays gonzaga.

I know that the axiom goes - draft by talent, not by need, but from picks 4 onwards, i think the talent difference is marginal at best and if given the choice between thabeet or some other big man and budinger, i'd take chase every time.

also - Curry is a cold blooded scoring machine. i had a hell of a time last night switching between Davidson/WVU and 'Zards/Pistons.

[Ruzious]

People underestimate Bud because he's a white guy but he has freakish athleticism. People wrote farmar off easily too and he's turning into a pretty good player in his own right. Like farmar, Bud has the basketball skills to go with his world class hops, which makes him a complete basketball player. The athleticism is the difference between Farmar and Kapono, or Budinger and Luke Walton. As for defense, I'm sure he's not terrible just based on his athletic ability, but I wouldn't count on him to be "good" either. However, that's the case with most guards- offensive talent, or unskilled and forced to buckle down on defense. I think the offensive upside is just too good to pass up even at the lotto pick. However this will be tested sunday when he plays gonzaga.

I know that the axiom goes - draft by talent, not by need, but from picks 4 onwards, i think the talent difference is marginal at best and if given the choice between thabeet or some other big man and budinger, i'd take chase every time.

also - Curry is a cold blooded scoring machine. i had a hell of a time last night switching between Davidson/WVU and 'Zards/Pistons.

Yeah, the one thing Bud doesn't have athletically is explosiveness when finishing - but neither does Rip.

I think Thabeet goes somewhere top 5. If we're picking 4th or 5th and he's there, I could see trading down for Bud. I think Bud goes around 10th.

[Severn Hoos]

Um, I think that Griffin kid might be a good choice if we get the #1 overall pick.

OK, now with that out of the way - who else is there to keep an eye on? Unfortunately, by my reading (at this stage of the season, a lot can change between now & June), I'm not too impressed with the rest of the guys slated to go in the top half of the Lottery. I'm not sold yet on Harden or DeRozen. (I like Harden's game OK, but not enough to spend a Top 5 pick on him. If someone else thinks he's worth it, then trade the pick and get more value elsewhere.) I don't see us taking a Center, so that rules out Thabeet or Mullens (and it would be a leap of faith at this point to take Mullens anyway). And there's something about Jennings that makes me nervous - again, not sure I'd spend a Top 5 pick on him.

Now the good news - if we do end up somewhere in the 2-5 range, there might be a chance to move back a few spots and still get a guy who would (IMO) be a better fit/value for the Wiz. I really like:

Earl Clark - Very nice all-around game. I know it's early in the season, but his A/TO ratio has gone from a disappointing .6 last year to 2.6 this year - better than many PGs! His size would make him a nice change of pace behind Caron - or beside him.

Stephen Curry - um, yeah. He can score. I'm a little concerned because there have been stretches where teams who set out specifically to defend him (WV) have been able to slow him down. Unfortunately, if we picked him, he'd be facing elite defenders every night - because he'd never face the Wizards.

Guys I'm on the fence about:

Chase Budinger: Good scorer, good athlete. Has gaudy shooting% numbers right now, we'll see what happens come conference season. (Remember Jarvis Hayes' stats the year he came out.) Is he somewhat redundant with Nick Young on the team? (I know, Budinger does more in terms of Reb & Assists, but still is primarily a scorer.)

Patrick Patterson: Will his wingspan make up for his 6-8 (?) height? Another guy to watch once conference play heats up, but right now has a phee-nom-in-al (Caliendo does Rome) FG% of .725

Tyler Smith: I like him for many of the same reasons listed above for Clark. Solid all-around game, natural SF - would be a good fit as a backup to Butler. Had the first Triple-Double in Tennessee history in his most recent outing.

Gerald Henderson: I was pretty high on him by the end of last season, and was looking forward to seeing what he would do this year. Unfortunately, the answer is "not much." He's a good defender (1.3 BPG from a Guard, in case WD was wondering), but it would be nice to see more on the offensive end if he's going to be more than a pure specialist in the NBA.

Lawal, Aminu, Aldrich: need to see more of them before making an evaluation.

I know it's a Draft geek talking, but I think the 2nd round pick could be very interesting, but that's a subject for another post...

[LyricalRico]

Chase Budinger: Good scorer, good athlete. Has gaudy shooting% numbers right now, we'll see what happens come conference season. (Remember Jarvis Hayes' stats the year he came out.) Is he somewhat redundant with Nick Young on the team? (I know, Budinger does more in terms of Reb & Assists, but still is primarily a scorer.)

I don't quite know what to make of Budinger. He's got nice size and athleticism, but I don't know how that's going to translate into the NBA. I think he'll be better than Morrison but that's not really saying much. If he can be Luke Walton with a better shot then he's got a chance to be a solid rotation guy.

Would I want the Wiz to draft him? Probably not. I wouldn't say that he duplicates Nick Young because I think Budinger's future in the NBA will have to be at the 3 but I would say that Budinger doesn't complement our team in that he doesn't bring anything that we don't already have.

What I'm looking for in this draft (if the Wiz keep the pick) would be a defensive 3/4 that doesn't need the ball to have an impact. Basically Luol Deng with less scoring. Many think McGuire could become that but I don't know. If we could get a guy with the size to play the 4 and the quicks to play the 3 and the ability to guard both positions, it would give us something we currently don't have and it would also make guys like Blatche and Songaila expendable.

[mhd]

Buddinger, IMO is a bigger Rip Hamilton. with deeper range. I'd love to draft him if we don't end up with a high pick.

[Ruzious]

Rico, it sounds like you're looking for someone like Mbah A Moute (sp?). Hopefully, you get someone like him in the 2nd round.

Buddinger is a better athlete than Morrison and especially Walton.

Sev, Harden is a guy I'd look at with a high lotto pick. I think he's a lot like Brandon Roy - just an inch or 2 shorter. And he can step into the NBA and play right away. If he was 6'7, he'd challenge to be the 1st pick in the draft. But he is big enough to be an outstanding player at right around 6'5 with long arms and a very strong build. I'd love to have him because he's very good at... everything - though he won't make highlight reels.

[pancakes3]

Clark - Great length and athleticism and decent size for a SF, but he lacks the outside game that it takes to play on the perimeter, and lacks the bulk to go down low. He's great at swooping into the lane with or without the ball, but i don't see him contributing anything in a halfcourt set. There's talent, no doubt, but i don't think it's top 5 talent.

Curry - One of the best scorers in collegiate history. I'm not too worried about him getting shut down in the NBA game since he seems willing to pass the ball off if need be. If someone's willing to put a player to hound curry and run through screens all night, that's a boon for us. However, I would be worried for the same reasons anyone would be worried about a 185lb shooting guard - if he has solid enough handles to play point or if he has enough size to defend shooting guards. Again, the talent is there, but there are enough doubts about his size that makes me question if he's a top 5 talent especially since his rebounding numbers are down, which tells me that he's embraced the perimeter and avoiding the lane.

Harden - I don't know how you're not sold on this kid yet, he's a dynamo on the court. He rebounds at the guard spot, he's putting up 25 a game on way less shots than curry, and he still manages to rack up 4 assists a game. He has the size to hang professionally at 6'4, 215 and has ability to score both from inside and outside (unlike westbrook). He's as much a can't-miss prospect as Griffen is.

Demar Derozan - hype. flat out hype. Miserable shooter, doesn't go to the rim, and shoots a pathetic 64% at the line. That kind of play belongs at the playground and has no place in college, much less the NBA. He's making a living off of his freakish athleticism, but unless he gets drafted by the Hornets and is oop-option #2 for CP3, i don't see him having any sort of success in the league.

Budinger - I agree, i'm going to reserve judgement on Bud and jumping off the bandwagon for a few games. Sunday's game against Gonzaga and eventual Pac=10 play will be telling about how he fares against decent defenders. However on paper, he's a great prospect especially his size while playing on the perimeter. He shoots very well, and can get to the rim reasonably well if someone is playing him too close. He's a borderline top 5, or even top 7, but that's a good thing because he'll be more readily available to us if/when we don't win the lottery.

Patrick Patterson - good PF prospect. Very big guy who has potential to get wicked jacked once he's a pro. He's slightly undersized but has better footwork and positioning than griffin. He doesn't have the athleticism of griffin, but he does shoot a respectable 72% from the line, but doesn't have any false pretenses of being able to shoot from the outside regularly. His game is strictly down low, and is awesome at grabbing rebounds and putbacks. A role player, but a very good role player. A lottery pick, but the lack of a polished post game makes me wary to select him top 5.

Tyler Smith - I see more versatility on offense in tyler smith than i do in earl clark. Tyler, as you said, has a triple double off assists whereas i cannot imagine a situation that would allow earl clark to do the same. Tyler's a better perimeter scorer, equally fantastic athleticism, and I see a lot of Gerald Wallace in his game. He would be a fantastic backup to Butler, much moreso than DMac.

Gerald Henderson - I see nothing in terms of a lottery prospect in this kid. Nothing. No role to play. He's a great college player but no aspect of his game has NBA-level talent. He's just good enough to make it as a college player, but he's not heads and shoulders above his peers to make it at the next level. His best attribute is probably his hustle, maximizing his athletic ability, but it's not enough to carve out a roster spot at the NBA level.

+1
you mentioned Aminu, but I think Jeff Teague is the best player on that Wake Team. Shoots a high percentage, scoots around the court easily, and gets to the rim a good amount. He's not quite the playmaker that CP3 is but you can definitely see similarities in their style. If he can cut down on his TO, he'll be a very good prospect at the point position - a lot more desirable than jeremy pargo or ty lawson, imo.

[Severn Hoos]

What makes this draft interesting for me is the PG position. Chad Ford's Top 100 list includes 10 PGs in the top 30 prospects. I doubt they'd all go in the 1st round, and since we stand to have a very high 2nd round pick, we should have a shot at someone (like Chalmers last year) who slips through the cracks. I like these guys at PG:

Ty Lawson: I know, no real chance he falls to the 2nd round - but then who thought Chalmers would fall out of the 1st? DX has him in the Lottery, nbadraft.net has him at #22. Ridiculous A/TO (6.1!) and outstanding shooting %. Some will question his lack of height, but he's pretty solid at 195. I'd love to have him as the "true PG" on the roster, even with the addition of Crittenton.

Jeremy Pargo: His 4.8 A/TO would look great if not following right behind TyLaw's #s. GREAT size for a PG (6'2, 215). Although he has played SG in the past, he seems to be playing like a true PG right now (7.6 APG). Not much of a scorer this year, partly a result of playing with other top notch scorers (Heytvelt, Daye, Bouldin, Downs) - good prep for the transition to an NBA team, where some guys struggle adjusting to not being The Man any more. My favorite right now for the 2nd round pick in terms of being a good fit and likely to be available at the Wiz' pick.

Eric Maynor: Another guy who varies from mock to mock, from #15 at .net to #33 at DX. More of a scorer than a "true PG", but definitely a winner (ask Coach K). I suspect he'll go in the 1st, especially if he goes all year shooting 3's at a 44% clip, but if he's available, he'd be a great addition.

Darren Collison: My favorite at the beginning of last season. He hasn't done anything to lessen my opinion of him, but then he hasn't done a lot to improve it either. His 3-point shooting looks great this year (63%!), and he shoots at a good clip overall (57%) with his array of floaters, teardrops, etc. Pesky defender, but a little undersized for full-time work in the NBA. Unfortunately, A/TO has dropped each of the past 2 seasons - is it a result of losing good teammates capable of finishing, or has he struggled as the focus of the opposing defense? Another guy who probably doesn't last until the 30s, but if he's there, snatch him up.

Some other interesting guys in Jerrells, Mills, and Abrams - plus Lester Hudson. Not impressed with Dominic James (remember him?) or T. Rice & Jack McClinton (please no more "combo" Gs).

So my preference would be to draft a PG with the 2nd rounder, but two PFs have found their way back onto the radar. I was watching both Jeff Pendergraph and Taj Gibson last year, hoping for big things. Each had a fairly disappointing season. Taj has bounced back pretty well this year, and Jeff is about the same with some minor improvements (cut down on fouls & TOs). If we don't end up with BG in the 1st round, one of those two could be a nice addition to our "skilled" (read: soft) front court.

[LyricalRico]

What makes this draft interesting for me is the PG position. Chad Ford's Top 100 list includes 10 PGs in the top 30 prospects. I doubt they'd all go in the 1st round, and since we stand to have a very high 2nd round pick, we should have a shot at someone (like Chalmers last year) who slips through the cracks.

Don't you think that would completely invalidate the Crittenton trade? Unless they plan to make him a combo guard who generally plays the 2 like Larry Hughes. But then what happens to Nick Young?

[pancakes3]

I'm skeptical about JC becoming an adequate backup point guard, and I'm equally skeptical that we resign Mike James next season unless he shapes up real quick, and we sign him for dirty cheap. So, with out solid talent at backup pg, I don't think using a second round pick on a solid PG like Pargo is out the realm of reason. 15 mpg or so of backing up Arenas isn't going to cut back on NY's minutes significantly especially if NY is starting next season (i hope he works on his set jumper instead of the pull up). To really invalidate NY, we would draft a SG like Curry and make NY battle 4-way for SG minutes with DS, JC, and a rookie.

[KevinFCheng]

Of course if we could pick, it'd be Blake Griffin. But if he's off the board, then the one we need is James Harden. He's gonna be our future 2-guard for years to come. He's very efficient with ball, shooting, passing, and rebounding. His stats look great because he's playing against less than stellar competition. I'm saying he won't be the next big thing. But he'll be in the Brandon Roy type mold. I'm not sold on anyone else this year, yet. We need to pick the best player available, and not a big man like we need because we DO, and I repeat, DO, need a shooting guard.

Nick Young, and I hope I'm wrong will never be an above average starting shooting guard in the league until he learns to take less erratic shots and develop the rest of his game. I see him as a great 6th man, though. No other big man or little, for that, is good in the draft or worthy of being picked in the top 5, which I hope we are picking.

[nate33]

I'm skeptical about JC becoming an adequate backup point guard, and I'm equally skeptical that we resign Mike James next season unless he shapes up real quick, and we sign him for dirty cheap. So, with out solid talent at backup pg, I don't think using a second round pick on a solid PG like Pargo is out the realm of reason. 15 mpg or so of backing up Arenas isn't going to cut back on NY's minutes significantly especially if NY is starting next season (i hope he works on his set jumper instead of the pull up). To really invalidate NY, we would draft a SG like Curry and make NY battle 4-way for SG minutes with DS, JC, and a rookie.

Mike James has a player option next year. He'll definitely opt for it. We are stuck with him next year.

[nate33]

People underestimate Bud because he's a white guy but he has freakish athleticism. People wrote farmar off easily too and he's turning into a pretty good player in his own right. Like farmar, Bud has the basketball skills to go with his world class hops, which makes him a complete basketball player. The athleticism is the difference between Farmar and Kapono, or Budinger and Luke Walton. As for defense, I'm sure he's not terrible just based on his athletic ability, but I wouldn't count on him to be "good" either. However, that's the case with most guards- offensive talent, or unskilled and forced to buckle down on defense. I think the offensive upside is just too good to pass up even at the lotto pick. However this will be tested sunday when he plays gonzaga.

I know that the axiom goes - draft by talent, not by need, but from picks 4 onwards, i think the talent difference is marginal at best and if given the choice between thabeet or some other big man and budinger, i'd take chase every time.

also - Curry is a cold blooded scoring machine. i had a hell of a time last night switching between Davidson/WVU and 'Zards/Pistons.

Yeah, the one thing Bud doesn't have athletically is explosiveness when finishing - but neither does Rip.

I think Thabeet goes somewhere top 5. If we're picking 4th or 5th and he's there, I could see trading down for Bud. I think Bud goes around 10th.

I'm skeptical of Bud. I know he has ridiculous hops on paper, but I just don't see it on the court. He plays more like Wally Szczerbiak than he does Rip Hamilton.

[mhd]

People underestimate Bud because he's a white guy but he has freakish athleticism. People wrote farmar off easily too and he's turning into a pretty good player in his own right. Like farmar, Bud has the basketball skills to go with his world class hops, which makes him a complete basketball player. The athleticism is the difference between Farmar and Kapono, or Budinger and Luke Walton. As for defense, I'm sure he's not terrible just based on his athletic ability, but I wouldn't count on him to be "good" either. However, that's the case with most guards- offensive talent, or unskilled and forced to buckle down on defense. I think the offensive upside is just too good to pass up even at the lotto pick. However this will be tested sunday when he plays gonzaga.

I know that the axiom goes - draft by talent, not by need, but from picks 4 onwards, i think the talent difference is marginal at best and if given the choice between thabeet or some other big man and budinger, i'd take chase every time.

also - Curry is a cold blooded scoring machine. i had a hell of a time last night switching between Davidson/WVU and 'Zards/Pistons.

Yeah, the one thing Bud doesn't have athletically is explosiveness when finishing - but neither does Rip.

I think Thabeet goes somewhere top 5. If we're picking 4th or 5th and he's there, I could see trading down for Bud. I think Bud goes around 10th.

I'm skeptical of Bud. I know he has ridiculous hops on paper, but I just don't see it on the court. He plays more like Wally Szczerbiak than he does Rip Hamilton.

I disagree Nate. Watching last year in the NCAA, he looked like a bigger Rip the way he went around those screens.

[LyricalRico]

I disagree Nate. Watching last year in the NCAA, he looked like a bigger Rip the way he went around those screens.

Even so, do you see guys like Jamison setting screens all game? Rip can do what he does because that offense is built around him. He'd be much less effective if he were simply getting the scraps from our Big Three. We need more guys like Nick Young (guys who can create their own shot) or JaVale McGee (guys who don't need plays called for them to be effective). I don't think Budinger is that guy.

[Ruzious]

Right mhd - he's one of the best I've seen at using screens - it's an art. But also, he's clearly a more fluid athlete than Wally Z. He really does move like a guard. Wally... not so much. And the Wiz bigs definitely do set picks - including lots of moving picks. If officials called them, Etan would be fouling out of games in the 1st 5 minutes... assuming he gets 5 minutes of PT. Anyway, with everyone healthy, we have creators in Arenas and Butler. If you have more than 2, you sometimes need an extra ball. It's nice to augment them with team players, and I'm not sure Nick is going to be that - though there's no doubt he's a talented player with value. I pretty much agree with KFC's analysis.