The RealGM Wizards Board Draft Thread 2008/2009

[mhd]

Jordan Hill is a VERY nice prospect. He's just a basketball player. Improved his game every year. Could be a more offensive Milsapp with a higher upside. Draftexpress loves him.

[doclinkin]

so you wouldn't take Nash?

Funny you should say that.

Look I downplay S'Curry when I suggest his low end as a 'role player'. I'm saying I think he'll find a way to play even as a rookie, even as a useful role player on no matter what team. But I think his upside is better than that. Believe me I ain't trying to hype him; I doubt we'll take him, he's not the seeming need position, his intangibles are far more easily overlooked than the measurables that the weakest wannabe scouts, physiology gurus and front offices lean heavily on.

But I just want you to understand the kind of thing I'm looking at.

Understood, he's an efficient scorer and blabla bla. He's been among the top 10 scorers in the country since he was a freshman. #8 as a freshman; #4 last year just ahead of Mike Beasley; #1 so far this year -- despite the doubleteam game where he scored only 3 pts (from the FT line). Okay, granted, as a scorer it's absolutely silly that his efficiency ratings, true shooting percentage, and scoring has gone up every year despite increased usage rate. That he accounts for 36% of his team's total offense.

That's not even what I'm talking about.

What I'm looking at is his stat progression in every other area of his game. It's freaking nuts. HIs pure passing rating --the measurement of how much of a point guard a player is, (more than Assist/TO record which only shows how careful they are with the ball, not how often they rack assists with accurate passes)-- was -3.08 as a freshman, -2.04 as a sophomore. This year he's got a +4.55.

Let me put that into NBA terms: Imagine "Crash" Gerald Wallace decided in one year to become about as good a pure PG as Devin Harris.

So far,--it's early of course-- He's fifth best in the nation in pure passing skills. #5 among all players. Racking ~7 ast/game on a team with one other double digit scorer. Think about it this way, when they say he's good for better than 50% from the field, that could mean his raw FG%, or it could mean he accounts for more than half of his team's total points (either scoring or passing). That kind of improvement just doesn't happen. You don't just spend a summer hanging out with CPaul and Nash and instantly put up PG numbers.

That's among other wrinkles. His FT attempts per FG attempt have jumped to 40% this year now that he's playing on the ball. Last year he was collecting loose boards, this year he's at the top of the key. HIs defense has improved every year, this year he's got a steal+block/personal foul ratio of 1.44. In the NBA the equivalent defender would be Dwade who averaged a similar rate at Marquette. You'd expect the numbers to drop, as DWade's did, he didn't regain a similar rate until his 4th year in.

The NBA plays a game of adjustments. You can look at all the widths and hefts you want, but one of the hardest skills to measure is a player's ability to see what is needed and make a change. The only way to check it is if a player makes sudden or steady improvement over their college career, or if their role changes and they have to re-draft their approach. This kid has made a shift about as startling as it is smooth.

Just saying, anyone honestly comparing him to JJ Reddick because they both score and have pale-ish skin is essentially an asstriloquist. JJ Reddick ran off screens all day, couldn't dribble to save his life, had mediocre (at best) assist numbers and was the focal point of an offense designed to spring him free because he didn't have the athleticism to do it himself. All on a team with a great coach, and decent players in other roles. He hit shots --never off the dribble-- mostly because he had textbook perfect form. And came up small in the biggest game of his career. S'Curry by contrast never takes a shot without a hand in his face (and a double team), and hits ridiculous circus shots from all angles, off glass or whatever, and shows up largest late in the game on the biggest stages. Plays defense because he knows the game better than you, and plays smart. And his coach says he has no idea how he does what he does.

Get stuck in the physical stats all you want. I'm looking at #2 in the country in EFF and PER, and a steady improvement every year in all the categories you want to see from a Point Captain. With a ridiculously high usage rate, and poor players around him. Personally I'd love to see what he'd do as the third threat on a team with players who can actually score the ball... so long as he plays here or in the western conference.

[Ruzious]

Curry got to the foul line 16 or 18 times last game. That's not something that guys like Kerr or Paxson could ever dream of doing. Those guys were strictly jump shooters who needed screens to get open. Curry can do that just as well, but... he can also takes his man off the dribble, he can slither through openings and catch near the hoop and finish, he can make plays to set up mediocre teammates, and he can disrupt on defense with his quickness. Not only can he do all those things; he actually does them consistently. The one game that he was shut down, the opposition had 2 defenders on him the entire game - so he simply stood way out on the perimeter, and made it a 4 on 3 game for his team - showing that he puts the team ahead of himself. Most supastars would not have done what he did.

[nate33]

Curry currently has a PER of 40.6. I've never seen a number like that. And that's despite the double team game. I figure his PER is somewhere around 43 or 44 if you ignore that game. In the 8 years that the DX database goes back, the highest PER was Beasley's 39. The second highest was 37.

At this rate, Curry will quite easily rank as the best offensive college player of the decade.

[nate33]

Just perusing DX stats. Dejuan Blair of Pittsburg is averaging 20.1 boards per 40 minutes, 9.3 of them are offensive boards!

He's a 6-7 PF/C so I don't know how well he'll translate in the pro's, but that's an insane rebounding rate.

[MF23]

Any NBA GM will have a hard time letting S. Curry go by without picking him.

[Severn Hoos]

Jordan Hill is a VERY nice prospect. He's just a basketball player. Improved his game every year. Could be a more offensive Milsapp with a higher upside. Draftexpress loves him.

Good catch, mhd. I noticed Hill in some of the writeups this summer, but yesterday looked to be a kind of coming out party for him to those of us who weren't watching closely before. He had 22 points, 6 rebounds, 3 steals, and 3 blocks - and most importantly, his team upset the #4 team in the country. He matched Austin Daye (some say a "lottery talent," which is a backhanded compliment if I ever heard one) for productivity, and now has season averages of 19 & 12 with 3 blocks per game.

I don't know that Millsap is the first name that comes to mind for me when I see Hill. For one, Millsap was listed at 6'7, 258 coming out of college, while Hill is listed at 6'10, and anywhere from 210-235, depending on the source. Millsap is all about power and technique (with some surprising, but not overwhelming, athleticism). Hill is all about raw talent and explosiveness. But the end result is similar - good rebounders & finishers in the lane who know that their role is not to sit out on the perimeter and shoot pretty jumpers.

I'd like to see a guy like Hill on the Wiz - especially if he continues to build strength and get good coaching on fundamentals in the paint (including defense). Not sure he'd get that here. Well, maybe BTH could be his de facto coach?

[fugop]

Just perusing DX stats. Dejuan Blair of Pittsburg is averaging 20.1 boards per 40 minutes, 9.3 of them are offensive boards!

He's a 6-7 PF/C so I don't know how well he'll translate in the pro's, but that's an insane rebounding rate.

Blair was a beast on the boards last year too. He's an insanely good rebounder, particularly on the offensive end. He and Young are a brutally strong tandem at the college level.

I don't know if he's got the athleticism to play at the next level. He could be as good as Landry or as bad as Shelden Williams. Conference play should reveal a lot.

[Ruzious]

Another 6'10 big on the rise - whose probably not on most draft lists - is Memphis' junior Shawn Taggert - goes about 230 lbs. He's got 2 straight 20/10 games - including Saturday's OT game vs. G-Town's talented front court. He's averaging something like 13/10 for the season, and he's become a shot blocker this year - combined blocks and steals of 4 per game.

[Tiago]

DX has Ricky Rubio on 2009 draft...it would be a big mistake, he has a lot of potential, but he's not ready for NBA, he should stay one more year in Liga ABC.

[BruceO]

I agree, that curry is that good. I had to go back and watch old footage of his killing other teams and his range is just like arenas. The thing that worried me about him is he looked like a little boy physically and all. But he has that killer instinct. Beyond Griffin the good players are at positions where we are invested in the future. there's Thabeet but we are invested in McGee. There's Harden but we are invested in Nick Young and I'm not sure If harden is that good.
Then there's the three point guards Brandon jennings, Rubio and Stephen curry all of who are 6 4' and below and slight build. Rubio's been injured, Brandon Jennings is in a new environment and he reminds me of Lou Williams of the sixers and Stephen Curry has made the transition into being a pg. I think one of these three has a chance to make a derrick Rose, Chris Paul type impact. I wouldn't be suprised if it's Stephen Curry.
I would draft him if he's out there and we have already lost out on Blake Griffin. I would not be suprised if a team with a made PF goes for him instead. The PG position and the PF/ C position define a team. He would be a good addition to bring out behind Gil and alongside Nick Young. He would be a good addition to bring out in tandem with Gil. With both of them having that unlimited range, Gil can play like Roger Mason at the SG and Curry can play the Pg in stretches and that will really spread the court because we have two combo guards who can handle the ball, score and dish out and who can shoot from anywhere inside the half court line. That will be a huge headache for a defensive co-ordinator.
The major concern is how will these two work together defensively. They both have active hands and I am worried about other guards being too big for them. I think cleveland is running something like that with Mo Williams and Delonte West. They run two centers in tandem with the two pg/Sg's which is interesting from an utility stand point

[AgentOvechkin08]

Nate mentioned earlier, and i agreed. If Rubio declares for the draft and he is on the board and Blake Griffin is gone, drafting Rubio and using his rights as bait might not be a bad idea. But then theres a guy like Harden who has Brandon Roy written all over him. Nbadraft.net has him compared to Manu, but Brandon Roy had all the intangibles down and could do everything with out being a freak athlete. Then there is stefen Curry, but we just got javaris.

I cant wait til draft time.

[Ruzious]

But the good thing about Critter is - you could play him with either Harden or with Curry - though I'll take Harden.

[Wizardspride]

http://www.nbadraft.net/

2009 Mock Draft | 2010 Mock Draft | Create Mock

1 Oklahoma Cty- Blake Griffin So.
2 *Minnesota- James Harden So.
3 Washington- Hasheem Thabeet Jr.
4 Sacramento- BJ Mullens Fr.
5 LA Clippers- Brandon Jennings Intl.
6 Golden St.- Al-Farouq Aminu Fr.
7 Charlotte- Damion James Jr.
8 Indiana- Gani Lawal So.
9 *Memphis- Jordan Hill Jr.
10 Milwaukee- DaJuan Summers Jr.
11 Philadelphia- Stephen Curry Jr.
12 Toronto Earl- Clark Jr.
13 *New York- Cole Aldrich So.
14 Phoenix- Demar DeRozan Fr

[mhd]

http://www.nbadraft.net/

2009 Mock Draft | 2010 Mock Draft | Create Mock

1 Oklahoma Cty- Blake Griffin So.
2 *Minnesota- James Harden So.
3 Washington- Hasheem Thabeet Jr.
4 Sacramento- BJ Mullens Fr.
5 LA Clippers- Brandon Jennings Intl.
6 Golden St.- Al-Farouq Aminu Fr.
7 Charlotte- Damion James Jr.
8 Indiana- Gani Lawal So.
9 *Memphis- Jordan Hill Jr.
10 Milwaukee- DaJuan Summers Jr.
11 Philadelphia- Stephen Curry Jr.
12 Toronto Earl- Clark Jr.
13 *New York- Cole Aldrich So.
14 Phoenix- Demar DeRozan Fr

No freaking way we take another center. In that scenerio, I expect a trade down. If no dice, I probably Aminu.

[Wizardspride]

http://www.nbadraft.net/

2009 Mock Draft | 2010 Mock Draft | Create Mock

1 Oklahoma Cty- Blake Griffin So.
2 *Minnesota- James Harden So.
3 Washington- Hasheem Thabeet Jr.
4 Sacramento- BJ Mullens Fr.
5 LA Clippers- Brandon Jennings Intl.
6 Golden St.- Al-Farouq Aminu Fr.
7 Charlotte- Damion James Jr.
8 Indiana- Gani Lawal So.
9 *Memphis- Jordan Hill Jr.
10 Milwaukee- DaJuan Summers Jr.
11 Philadelphia- Stephen Curry Jr.
12 Toronto Earl- Clark Jr.
13 *New York- Cole Aldrich So.
14 Phoenix- Demar DeRozan Fr

No freaking way we take another center. In that scenerio, I expect a trade down. If no dice, I probably Aminu.

I agree with you, even though the idea of having another 7 footer on the roster is appealing to me.

[MJG]

ESPN's Lottery Simulator

Might as well start playing with it now. I did ten runs for fun, here is where we wound up:

2. Ricky Rubio
6. Brandon Jennings
6. Brandon Jennings
5. Stephen Curry
3. Ricky Rubio
5. James Harden
1. Blake Griffin
5. James Harden
5. James Harden
4. James Harden

It's actually a little depressing. As bad as we are, we still only nabbed the top pick once, and fell out of the top three seven times. Of course that's something you could guess from the percentages, but to actually see it happening in a simulator over and over, well, bleh. Though if you want to be positive, we're probably still getting a good prospect no matter what.

[nate33]

Looking at needs, my first choice is obviously Blake Griffin. My next choice is James Harden. If we land the 2nd or 3rd pick, we might be able to trade down and still pick up Harden while dumping a bad contract and/or acquiring another player.

[Ruzious]

Another thought is to trade the pick and filler to Minnesota for Love. He doesn't fit there with Jefferson and Craig Smith. He needs to play next to a defensive-minded big, and MN has nothing resembling that. Jefferson and Smith just want the ball down low - to shoot. At first glance, Love's stats don't look so hot, but he's actually tied for 4th in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game - even though he's played only 24.3 minutes a game! Minny would probably love to have 2 very high picks - for their new GM... if they have a GM, that is. It'd be an excuse for the new guy to undo McHale's damage and look good.

[Wizardspride]

Another thought is to trade the pick and filler to Minnesota for Love. He doesn't fit there with Jefferson and Craig Smith. He needs to play next to a defensive-minded big, and MN has nothing resembling that. Jefferson and Smith just want the ball down low - to shoot. At first glance, Love's stats don't look so hot, but he's actually tied for 4th in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game - even though he's played only 24.3 minutes a game! Minny would probably love to have 2 very high picks - for their new GM... if they have a GM, that is. It'd be an excuse for the new guy to undo McHale's damage and look good.

I'm not sure I'd trade Andray straight up for Love, much less our pick (assuming its in the top 6) and a filler.

I could be wrong but I'm not completely sold on Love.