John Hollinger saying some stupid stuff in his Chat

[John Locke]

I always thought that Hollinger's Power Rankings were made by some formula he made up and that the fact that the Cavs are number one right now was just an aberration. But I was reading his chat and it got me so mad.

Tacoma, WA: Do you really think that the Cavs are a better team than the Celtics?

John Hollinger: I think the Cavs have played better than the Celtics. Whether they're a better team or just had a really hot 25 games is still to be determined. However, if I'm in Boston they're the one team that I'm deathly afraid of -- if they're this good with LBJ playing 35 minutes, what will they be like when he plays 48?

And he continues:

Bob (Boston, Mass): Dont you think your ratings need to be tweaked if a team goes 16 straight wins has two less losses and even beats the team above it( first game ) and still doesnt get top spot?

SportsNation John Hollinger: So you want everything to be about a five-point game that happened nearly two months ago in Boston's building? Some Celtics fans are having a hard time with the idea that they can be playing better than a year ago and still be No. 2, but that's how good the Cavs have been. If Cleveland had spotted every opponent 10 points before the game started, they'd still have the league's fourth-best record (18 double digit wins in 25 games). That's unbelievable.

Wait...there is more:

Bob (Boston, Mass): I am fine with your point that one 5-point home win is not the difference. But how about losing twice as many games, while playing a weaker schedule?

SportsNation John Hollinger: Because the other data doesn't back up the W-L differential. Celtics are 7-0 in games decided by five or less, with two of those in overtime -- that isn't going to continue, historically even the best teams are around .500 in those games. Meanwhile, Cavs have only had seven games all season that they didn't win by double digits. That's the difference between being great and being fortunate.

I think that winning close games is a sign of being a very good team. Sure, it's impressive to blow teams out, but still the Cavs have a weaker schedule.
He just doesn't know the game. Numbers don't tell the whole story (not even close) and he is just trying to defend his stupid formula.
Add to that, the Celtics are the current champions and every team plays with more hunger against them.

Hollinger also has some stuff to say about the GM's of the league (refusing to give Ainge his props):

Josh C (Yellowknife, NT, Canada): Hey John - Saw earlier today that Chad Ford listed Joe Dumars as a top 6 GM in the league. I disagreed, and went back and looked at his moves since 2004. Not impressive (but not John Paxson either). Is it that difficult a job? Could anybody off the street with hoops knowledge do it?

John Hollinger: Had a couple questions about this -- Dumars is unquestionabiy in the top five -- making the conference finals every year for a half decade is an amazing accomplishment. I think you have to put Pop and R.C. in San Antonio at the top of the list, but he's in the discussion for No. 2.

I guess the Spurs' directors deserve a lot of credit, but if they are clearly number one, then Ainge is just as clearly number two.

Hollinger also says that we'll lose against the Lakers and that out of the top 3 teams, the Lakers have to biggest chance to improve.

So basicly, he doesn't like our Celtics.

[BillessuR6]

Don`t you know that we are 26-2 just because we are fortunate? If we weren`t we would be around 50%. In reality we are at the level of NJ, MIA, CHI...If those teams had a little more luck at the end of games they would also be 26-2...

[Mahoney_jr]

The non-homer in me says me that Hollinger is right to a certain degree. According to the numbers we won't be perfect in close games for the whole year (right now 7-0) and that point differential is a very important measure to define the potential of a team and to add in-depth stats to the blank W/L-scores.

James is THE counterpart to Pierce. Nobody can handle the Truth better than the Cavs. Additionally they are able to limit the SG, which limits our offensive game like no other team is able to (e.g. the Lakers have no answer to our wings). We've yet to see how they handle the new Rondo, and if Rondo is able to contibute on the current level during the playoffs (esp. on road games). But the Cavs have what it takes to get us down.

[Fidel Sarcasmo]

I actually agree with his stats on the top of your post. I've been saying for a week now when looking at the schedule in the near future that the next time the Celts play the Cavs, I think the Cavs will win. Their amazing. Just call it a hunch. I completely disagree about his opinion on the Lakers beating the Celts on Christmas. I think as much as the lakers want to get "Revenge" against the C's on Christmas, I think a lot of the C's are pissed off that still some people think they got lucky because Andrew Bynum wasn't there. I think the C's play with fire this game and beat the Lakers on Christmas to show the media, who still think the lakers are going to become a dynasty on the Celtics watch, that the Celtics aren't a fluke and that they would still have won with Bynum in the middle. He's got a different angle on this stuff which is cool though, even if you disagree.
Look out for any discrepancies in his rankings though, that'll be the real test. I would like to see, obviously the Celts and the Cavs continue to do well up to their January 8th meeting in Clevland. And I'd like to see the Cavs still keep the statistical edge over the Celtics in his ranking department. My point is, if the Celts win the game and the Cavs still have the statistical advantage over the Celtics and he refuses to list the Celtics as number one on his power rankings than I'd say he's being stubborn and inflexible, thus looses credibility. If that scenario goes down, he'll have to bend the rules if he wants to save face.

[BillessuR6]

I just think it is silly to talk about the celtics being fortunate. That is just stupid.

But I do agree that Cavs have a great team. And they have the best chance of beating us in the playoffs. After our series last season I knew they were special. They play superb defense, have Lebron and are very deep. We will have to play our best to beat this team!

[canman1971]

Hollinger is that dork that sits with 10 computers in his room filled with statistics of players. He probably doesn't watch games; as a matter of fact, I would be shocked. People want to by into the LeBron hype, great. He is a great player, but the Celtics are a GREAT TEAM. I'm sorry, I am not sold on Mo Williams, or the resurgence of Ben Wallace. Will the Celtics beat them every time they play, no, of course not. But, for anyone to suggest they are better than the Celtics right now is just blind. End of discussion.

[humblebum]

I don't know canman... I think that the Cavs and Celtics are more or less a coin flip as to who is better. Lebron is the best player, easily. Ilgauskas has almost a KG like impact on game with his ability to spread the floor, pass, muddle up the interior, and rebound. Plus he's a clutch shooter. Mo, Wally and West are all plus outside shooters with some confidence going. Varejao and Wallace are both very nice complementary players to big Z with Varejao having a Perkins like impact on games. I think that a case could be made for the Cavs being the best team in general.

BUT, as much as Mo Williams has helped to unlock their offensive potential I think he could be a HUGE liability when it comes to guarding Rondo. And really the X Factor in this matchup is Rondo. He can break down the defensive schemes of the Cavs helping to free up Pierce and Ray for easier looks. He can push tempo and get the Celtics early offense. And he can get in the paint and get easy baskets/draw fouls on the Cavs bigs. If he plays at his highest level at home and ON THE ROAD, the Celtics could make quick work of the Cavs, IMO.

Also, Perkins is much improved. His "up-quick" shot that he's developing around the hoop will help him finish in the trees (Z, V, W). But Powe and Davis are going to have a tough time against them... If the C's can add a Mutumbo or a Joe Smith it will really help out.

Overall I see this as a great test for the Celtics. How they perform against the Cavs will say a lot about how the team is progressing.

[AlCelticFan]

I can't really agree that Hollinger said "stupid stuff"... He is looking at the teams statistically. Whether he is right or not remains to be seen. Who knows if his formula weights things as best it could...???

I can't wait until we play the Lakers and the Cavs.

[Gant]

Here's a helpful stat: The Cavs are 3-3 vs. the top 10 teams. The Celtics are 7-1.

Also Hollinger's reliance on point differential led him to confidently predict that Utah would cruise through the Western Conference playoffs last year.

[MyInsatiableOne]

Don`t you know that we are 26-2 just because we are fortunate? If we weren`t we would be around 50%. In reality we are at the level of NJ, MIA, CHI...If those teams had a little more luck at the end of games they would also be 26-2...

No kidding...

Hollinger is a **** idiot and at this point he probably realizes if he admits his idiotic statistical **** is wrong, he looks like a raging **** ****, so he has to keep defending it, beggaring belief in the process...which makes him look like ever more of a **** tool!

[cloverleaf]

James is THE counterpart to Pierce. Nobody can handle the Truth better than the Cavs.

Or is Pierce the counterpart to James--and James more important to the Cavs than Pierce is to the Celtics?

[avi623]

He is right. The cavs are kicking the crap out of people. Did anyone see the game against Denver the other night? And they ARE playing LeBron five minutes less per game than they have in the previous four seasons. As a Celtics fan, that is a freakin scary thought when he actually has to play 40-48 (and probably won't be as gassed).

Also, Hollinger was the one guy who defended the Celtics before they went on their west coast trips, saying we were playing ridiculous good defense and kicking the crap out of people. This year, I am not happy that we have had some fairly close games against inferior teams. I think being 7-0 in those games is parrtly a product of us having better execution in close games because we know how to do it now, but luck is also involved. You know, like an 80+ percent free throw shooter missing the second free throw to tie the game. Or Jarrett Jack having those last second shots rim out. Even Pierce's three in that game is partly luck. We could easily be 24-4 or 23-5 right now, and it probably wouldn't look as impressive as it has for Cleveland.

Simply put, his stats measure how people HAVE played, not how people will play. So far, Cleveland has been more dominant than us. but we too are still on pace to have a better record than last season. There just happens to be another great team in the east this year.

[Kefa461]

What those stats do not reflect is the fact the C's are battle tested....and have won. This is the biggest stat. Something that cannot be measured, something the Cav's have not done yet. A big plus.

[Mahoney_jr]

What those stats do not reflect is the fact the C's are battle tested....and have won. This is the biggest stat. Something that cannot be measured, something the Cav's have not done yet. A big plus.

Be careful with arguments our own opponents used to appease themselves during 2007/2008.

[Gant]

LeBron is an all time great talent and he will eventually win titles. The question is, when? The Celtics are certainly capable of holding him off this season.

[LenBiasBaller]

What those stats do not reflect is the fact the C's are battle tested....and have won. This is the biggest stat. Something that cannot be measured, something the Cav's have not done yet. A big plus.

Eh, I do not know that you can actually say that. I think you can make the argument that they are more battle tested than us.

That 7 game series alone last year was our toughest by far and was a PJ jump shot away from going the other way.

Plus LBJ has been to the NBA finals vs. the Spurs. I know they have some new additions but I would def. not say that they are not as battle tested as us.

Lebron is more battle tested than any player we have...his whole life has been full of big games since high school. The kid is a beast and he's the only player that scares me.

[Fencer reregistered]

I only saw one downright stupid point in there. That was when he pointed out LBJ was playing less than playoff minutes without noting that the same is true of the Celts' stars.

Other than that, the two teams are very close, and if we wants to put the Cavs ahead of the Cs -- he's wrong, but it's not so wrong as to be stupid.

[floyd]

Clearly if a you blowout teams regularly, the amount by which you blow them out predicts how good you are. The bottom 5 guys on your roster are key come playoff time.

[TheSheriff]

Hollinger is just defensive about his formula...

[Havlicek17]

Yea, I know the Cavs are good. Yea, they might even give us a run for our money this year. It's very likely they will be our best competitor throughout this year for the title.

But I gotta say, their new uniforms are ugly! Does Holinger have a category or deduct style points for you-guly?