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Where we are now: the long and short

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Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#1 » by billfromBoston » Sun Dec 21, 2008 7:23 am

Ainge is in a unique position in terms of his current team-building responsibilities.

He must determine the order of priorities and be sure to balance both halves going forward. We've seen a great deal of controversy, if you call it that, about this order of priorities. Many this past summer felt very strongly about the team's lack of pursuit of quality veteran free agents.

Despite the presence of substantial interest in top-level veteran wings in James Posey and Corey Maggette, many focused on the lack of fiscal aggressiveness in those pursuits. Considering the level that the other 3 major league sports teams do this, it is a wonder why there wasn't more written on the purpose behind that strategy.

The summer's initial conundrum was dealing with their stable of free agents. James Posey and Eddie House were the tandem that produced the majority of the team's fire-power off the bench. The rest of the main unit was consistent of left-over draftees from the trades that changed this team's fortunes. Leon Powe was exceptional, Tony Allen incomplete, and Glen Davis surprising. Gabe Pruitt didn't contribute, but was closely monitored by the team.

Clearly the organization was already considering the future before the title run, a trend that would continue. The past summer brought them two McDonald's All-Americans and a young euro national team member. Bill Walker and Jr Giddens both had troubles that decreased their value, but both have skills that can't be taught. Erdan is coming from a strong developmental background and has been getting a ton of veteran guidance. These players, added to the incumbents, gave Ainge a stable of assets to work with again - more so if you fall into the camp that thinks highly of O'Bryant.

The team has demonstrated that it has a concern for the long-term future of this team as evidenced by the number of roster spots being held with high talent, low contract developers. Its a strange mix until you consider the rare level of contribution that some of these players have provided.

The likelihood of any player under 24 or with less than 3 years experience contributing as a starter is still not a common occurrence on winning teams. Having your bookends both in this category and winning the championship is exceptional. Rondo headlines this class. The fact that Perkins has joined him this season is what affords management the ability to be selective.

Ainge doesn't have to compromise his financial flexibility because the starting 5 is far superior to any other in the league and are being bolstered by the youth and vitality of their bookend pups. Both Perkins and Rondo have developed substantially faster under the no-nonsense environment that Rivers has established with this team since day one. Now that winning and experience has been added, these two students are applying it on the court instead of just learning about it in practice.

This extends to the bench contributors as well. Leon Powe enters his 3rd season in the league having played less than two-thousand cumulative minutes over that time. Tony Allen just passed three-thousand minutes last season, despite his 4 years experience in the league. Neither had gotten the chance to test their ability to fulfill roles on a winning team until this past year.

Glen Davis got a chance to contribute a great deal his rookie season, before being limited down the stretch by the PJ Brown acquisition. Pruitt had a great seat for it all and seemed to learn a great deal from listening. The voices of Brown and Cassell on the bench provided a great commentary for watching the on-court genius GPA, Posey, and House in motion on the hardwood.

But the physical impact statistically of these peripheral vets is in the magnitude, not volume of plays. Their understanding of when to do what, the ability to convey that to the youngsters and collaborate with their peers is profound. This only strengthens Ainge's interest in remaining liquid, working the phones, and waiting for opportunities to arise.

No one is saying that their isn't risk involved. It is obvious that their will be a finite amount of opportunities for Ainge to cast his reel and try and acquire the cache that Brown and Posey brought.With Cassell struggling last season and sitting to begin this one, its easy to forget he still plays for the team. But his voice is always present and has had an impact on the environment of the team. But an on-court impact remains to be seen and the team has clearly shown interest in outside influence.

The recent rumors revolving around Mutombo and Marbury are a sample of what Ainge discussed this past summer when he explained the level of interest and enthusiasm in the team due to the chemistry and success they had enjoyed. While that didn't translate into immediate dividends in July, it is starting to bear fruit now.

There are always a set-stable of available veterans with experience and varying degrees of accomplishment. Finding a market for the price established for assets is hard, but by having easy-to-move low-cost contracts attached to interesting players, the organization has the ability to play the market for cost-effective, aging vets, who specialize in niche elements of the game.

The team doesn't need any more star power. They need veteran stability and purpose given to the bench unit. Ainge knows this. The bench unit lacks guidance more than it lacks ability. It is short on experience and as such is having trouble when it is played as a complete group. Eddie House is the only regular that qualifies as playoff veteran, having done so on multiple teams. Davis, Powe, Allen, and Pruitt have not fully figured themselves out as individual players, let alone how to read each other consistently.

But, given the right environment this unit should snap into place over the back-half of the year. Whether its Mutombo or some other veteran, a steady, low impact role-player with the leadership qualities to lead the 2nd unit could preserve the starters vitality by limiting their in-season minutes. When the post-season starts rotations could tighten up. However, the younger members of that group will have gotten the chance work on their games without having to be the lead decision makers.

Bringing in a veteran big man who has been through some wars will give Eddie House another solid presence to help create a system of operation. Powe and Allen will have a much easier time operating once their is both a front court and a backcourt member with knowledge helping them to work the floor. Davis and Pruitt will also benefit, though neither may see as much time as they would like if Cassell comes back too.

Regardless, it makes little sense to commit to an incoming player of even moderate price if his contract lasts beyond the next couple of seasons. This has been the organizations stance and they've stuck by it. Because of it, they are in a position to both develop players and add the needed vets when necissary. The window for acquiring these players in far greater because of how fluid transactions are for small-level contracts relative to "splash" moves.

Ainge never had to jump the gun and now he'll get a prolonged chance to develop his assets while entertaining options for the stretch run. This patience will pay off two-fold for the team and should help to maintain health and longevity for a prolonged run of success. Its not as iron-clad as paying top-dollar for established free agent vets, but its more cost effective, promotes high-yield return, and leaves options for self-correction open...where big financial commitments seldom do.

We've seen this strategy succeed in a 5 year time frame already, with a far worse base of talent to work with and a exponentially more clouded financial framework to deal with - not to mention a team culture that was hard to sell.

The position of the team is much stronger now, the need for impact less in the short-term and more in the long. There will always be time for concentrating on the larger moves of tomorrow, but there will be plenty of suitors for the short-term needs of today...
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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#2 » by cfan79 » Sun Dec 21, 2008 10:46 am

Good read, I agree that it might be good in the long run to keep developing the young talent. As long as it doesn't affect are current situation though.

I feel that Danny does have to bring in a true center and true point guard. We have too many players playing out of position in the 2nd unit right now. Baby should either be a 3rd stringer or be traded to bring in a small forward with length.
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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#3 » by SonicYouth34 » Sun Dec 21, 2008 2:49 pm

Good read bro. I think we need to do what Detroit did. They drafted great, developed their players and we're very competitive the entire time. Danny can do the first and our coaching staff is top notch at player development.

I think we need to just get a veteran swing man for this year and then let one of Walker or Giddens take over that spot next year to speed up their development.
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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#4 » by Jammer » Sun Dec 21, 2008 3:50 pm

Bill,

You're obviously as good a typist as you are a basketball thinker/analyst.

I think the solution is Mutombo, Marbury and Grant Hill, if possible.

1.I still view full sized backup center as biggest need, AGAINST CLEVELAND AND LAKERS.

1A. Alternatively, A big that can hit a jump shot like Joe Smith would get Davis' minutes.

2. A 5th guard to replace Pruitt that can protect the ball and score like Marbury .

3. A full sized backup SF like unhappy Grant Hill,
despite the great play from Ray and Tony as backup SF's,
who have both been MUCH BETTER THAN anything Grant Hill has done this year.
(Ray and Tony have been phenomenal on D this year against high scoring
SG's and SF's)

I still view the starters,
Tony (backup wing, part time PG when paired with Eddie),
Eddie (shooter off the bench, better backup PG than given credit for) and
Leon (low post threat off bench)
as not available in trade.

Of the remaining 7 players
3 (Giddens, Walker and O'Bryant) have the potential in 3 years to be rotation players
on a decent team. They are the 3 with some trade value.

Cassell is just an expiring.

Scal is salary filler.

Davis has almost no value at this point since he will be a free agent this summer,
and currently is the backup C, where he is actually needed.

And Pruitt makes you wonder if he will ever "get it" and be a
true backup PG, or at least a bench scorer (shots must fall),
whose defense is pretty good.

I suspect that Pruitt maybe should be included with
Giddens, Walker and O'Bryant as having some potential to make a rotation,
but I'm less encouraged with him than the others,
until Gabe's shot at least goes in,
since he really doesn't know how to run an offense YET .

Now, if I knew that the Celtics could sign Mutombo and Marbury as
backup C and bench scorer/5th guard;

and had to open two roster spots;

The Celtics could send Davis to any team, but he'd likely return little,
since he will be a free agent this summer.

Grant Hill is unhappy in Phoenix, and reportedly wants out,
since the coach and team has changed since he signed his 2 year LLE
contract in July 2007.
Trading for Grant Hill REQUIRES
one of (Cassell or Giddens or O'Bryant) + one of (Davis or Pruitt).
I don't put much hopes in Grant Hill being bought out,
since he is Shaq's best friend,
despite Matt Barnes taking a lot of his minutes.

I don't see a Joe Smith trade right now,
because although Scal + one of (Giddens or Pruitt) works,
Oklahoma City has 15 players under contract.
And, I suspect Smith is movable enough that I don't have much
faith that he will be bought out.

Of course, if the Celtics know that they want to move Giddens (possibly premature to do so),
then they could offer him to Memphis (cap room) for Lakers 2010 First Round Pick.

If Oklahoma City had a roster spot, the Celtics could offer
Gabe Pruitt for Thunder's 2009 2nd Round Pick (likely #31 or #32 pick).

Dallas or New Orleans might give up a 2nd Rounder for Davis,
but why should they?
Since Davis could simply sign with the team of his choice this summer.
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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#5 » by Jammer » Sun Dec 21, 2008 4:04 pm

My biggest surprise this year is that the starters continue to perform near their
phenomenal 2008 levels.

Last year, the starters averaged 73 ppg, 29 rpg, 17 apg and 5.6 steals in like 159 mpg.

This year, the starters average 73 ppg, 32 rpg, 17 apg and 5.9 steals in 165.7 mpg.

Ray Allen, Rondo and Perk are covering the falloffs of Garnett and Pierce from last year.

Perk going from 6.9 ppg and 6.1 rpg to 9 ppg and 8.4 rpg I think has surprised everyone.

Now, Tony Allen has emerged as a pit bull defender, and 8.3 ppg also.

But the needs that I mention in my previous post are still there.

The most difficult task that the Celtics face,
besides recruiting a backup C, a backup big with a jump shot,
a bench scorer and full sized backup SF, I suspect,

are correctly evaluating O'Bryant, Giddens and Walker to determine
who's a keeper and who can be traded.

I think it might not be clear until the summer 2010.
Whether Pruitt should be included with those 3 is another story.
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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#6 » by Havlicek17 » Sun Dec 21, 2008 5:36 pm

You made some very good points.

1.) Short Term
We are the champs and have the best record in the league. We need only (and should only) tweak our bench at this point with savy veterans that can effectively help us. I think we need a true Center (6' 10" or better) to backup Perk, more than anything else right now. PJ is on Doc's speed dial, and he is also calling Mutombo.

2.) Medium Term
I think we are in a good position to continue being a competitive team beyond the next few years because we have two starters who are 23 yrs old or younger. It affords us a great foundation to build upon. The salary structure of the big three allows us the room to sign Rondo and keep the team intact. Because most teams only play 9 or 10 players, we can also afford to develop young talent in the 11-15 slots as a championship team. Danny has been phenominal in getting the best talent at our draft position, and the coaching staff has done a good job of developing those assets.

3.) Long Term
In order to really get past the big three, we need to get another young franchise player or two to add in the mix. Although there is a chance Walker, or JR, or TA could possibly get there, I think we will likely need to either trade for that type of talent or we will need to trade for earlier draft picks to snag them. Using our young assets as trading chips is the best solution because it doesn't effect the starting 5 and the effectiveness of our veterans as we try to win championships now. Scal or Sam notwithstanding.
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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#7 » by ParticleMan » Sun Dec 21, 2008 5:53 pm

Good read, bill. I agree that Ainge's strategy is spot on. Don't overpay for the vets, there are definitely lower cost, shorter term guys available like Mutombo can provide the short-term stability while allowing the kids to fill into their potential.

All of our success hinges on being able to draft players well, even late in the 1st and 2nd rounds. These are the players who can provide cheap talent fill roles. Plus they provide trade fodder to pick up lower-tier vets who could help us out. We must hold on to our draft picks, and if possible accumulate them. I'd love to get a late 1st or early 2nd for Baby, not because I don't like Davis, but because he is probably gone after this year anyways. I think our priority will be to hold on to Leon, and Baby will find more money/PT elsewhere. Similarly Giddens and Walker are in a long-term competition to see who will stick. Pruitt is slotted to replace Eddie, so management will have to evaluate when he's ready. If they don't think he'll be ready after next season, we should move him.

There are a lot of options for Ainge, but it's great to have a core 5 that you know can win a title. Beyond that, it's just tweaking, and I have a lot of confidence in Ainge to do the right thing.
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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#8 » by Hemingway » Sun Dec 21, 2008 7:18 pm

Ainge has shown us that each year he can field a few late pick prospects and his track ecord on their success rate is fantastic. Aside from the starters we have chips. One stratagy will be to see if we can make a 2 or 3 for one trade where we get an upgrade and then reload in the draft. If we can consistently do this we might be able to get another legit starter in a few years to pick up some of the production of the big 3.

For the first time I am convinced that our best game plan is to just keep our core for the long term. Yes you have to shop Ray to see if there are any truly great deals, but with Perk and Rondo's development we could simply let the big 3 fade while we add some more firepower. I feel like our team as is will still be top tier in 3 season without any changes. Now if we can bunch our assets and land another 20point threat and let Ray or whoever come off the bench if needed it is all gravy.

Bill,

What kinds of deals do you think we are looking at if the goal is to free up a roster spot or 2? Can we do better than cuts?
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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#9 » by Jammer » Sun Dec 21, 2008 8:07 pm

I think it's obvious that they have to make some moves to prepare for the challenge
of Cleveland, Orlando, the Lakers, Denver, Houston and others.

Starting Five Production

Team *********** MPG ********** PPG ********* RPG ******* APG ***** +/-
Cleveland **** 152.6 ********** 72.5 ********* 27.7 ******* 16.2 ***** 1388
Boston ******** 165.7 ********** 73.3 ********* 31.9 ******* 17.7 ***** 1310
Lakers ******** 148.5 ********** 73.8 ********** 29.5 ******* 14.6 ****** 870
Orlando ******* 173.4 ********** 80.9 ********* 31.9 ******** 14.3 ***** 769
New Orleans * 160.1 *********** 69.6 ********* 26.3 ******** 16.3 ***** 748
Houston ******* 165.3 ********* 71.7 ********* 30.8 ******** 14.8 ****** 642
Denver ********* 154 *********** 69.4 ********* 25.9 ******** 15.1 ****** 506

BENCH

Team *********** MPG ********** PPG ********* RPG ******* APG ***** +/-
Utah ************ 93.1 ********** 33.4 ********* 15.2 ******** 8.5 ****** 380
Lakers ********** 91.4 ********** 33.7 ********* 16.4 ******** 8.8 ****** 360
Cleveland ****** 87.4 ********* 29.9 ********** 14.9 ******** 4.8 ****** 337
San Antonio * 101 ************ 34.4 ********** 15.6 ******** 8.0 ****** 190
Portland ******* 97.7 ********** 35.9 ********* 17.4 ********* 8.8 ****** 155
Chicago ******** 88.8 ********** 34.5 ********* 16.0 ********* 6.5 ****** 149
Boston ********* 76.1 *********** 27.9 ********* 11.4 ******** 4.0 ******* 85
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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#10 » by billfromBoston » Sun Dec 21, 2008 8:10 pm

Jammer wrote:Bill,

You're obviously as good a typist as you are a basketball thinker/analyst.

I think the solution is Mutombo, Marbury and Grant Hill, if possible.

1.I still view full sized backup center as biggest need, AGAINST CLEVELAND AND LAKERS.

1A. Alternatively, A big that can hit a jump shot like Joe Smith would get Davis' minutes.

2. A 5th guard to replace Pruitt that can protect the ball and score like Marbury .

3. A full sized backup SF like unhappy Grant Hill,
despite the great play from Ray and Tony as backup SF's,
who have both been MUCH BETTER THAN anything Grant Hill has done this year.
(Ray and Tony have been phenomenal on D this year against high scoring
SG's and SF's)

I still view the starters,
Tony (backup wing, part time PG when paired with Eddie),
Eddie (shooter off the bench, better backup PG than given credit for) and
Leon (low post threat off bench)
as not available in trade.

Of the remaining 7 players
3 (Giddens, Walker and O'Bryant) have the potential in 3 years to be rotation players
on a decent team. They are the 3 with some trade value.

Cassell is just an expiring.

Scal is salary filler.

Davis has almost no value at this point since he will be a free agent this summer,
and currently is the backup C, where he is actually needed.

And Pruitt makes you wonder if he will ever "get it" and be a
true backup PG, or at least a bench scorer (shots must fall),
whose defense is pretty good.

I suspect that Pruitt maybe should be included with
Giddens, Walker and O'Bryant as having some potential to make a rotation,
but I'm less encouraged with him than the others,
until Gabe's shot at least goes in,
since he really doesn't know how to run an offense YET .

Now, if I knew that the Celtics could sign Mutombo and Marbury as
backup C and bench scorer/5th guard;

and had to open two roster spots;

The Celtics could send Davis to any team, but he'd likely return little,
since he will be a free agent this summer.

Grant Hill is unhappy in Phoenix, and reportedly wants out,
since the coach and team has changed since he signed his 2 year LLE
contract in July 2007.
Trading for Grant Hill REQUIRES
one of (Cassell or Giddens or O'Bryant) + one of (Davis or Pruitt).
I don't put much hopes in Grant Hill being bought out,
since he is Shaq's best friend,
despite Matt Barnes taking a lot of his minutes.

I don't see a Joe Smith trade right now,
because although Scal + one of (Giddens or Pruitt) works,
Oklahoma City has 15 players under contract.
And, I suspect Smith is movable enough that I don't have much
faith that he will be bought out.

Of course, if the Celtics know that they want to move Giddens (possibly premature to do so),
then they could offer him to Memphis (cap room) for Lakers 2010 First Round Pick.

If Oklahoma City had a roster spot, the Celtics could offer
Gabe Pruitt for Thunder's 2009 2nd Round Pick (likely #31 or #32 pick).

Dallas or New Orleans might give up a 2nd Rounder for Davis,
but why should they?
Since Davis could simply sign with the team of his choice this summer.


Giddens could have value for both OKC and Memphis for different reasons. I think most of the youth has minimal value, but that is exactly the range Boston is working in - this is about adding the Grant Hills of the world, not trading for the KG's or Allen's.

I'd love to snag the Lakers first rounder as an "F-OFF" to top the cake. If they could win the title and take the Lakers first rounder it'd be a blast. However, there are no bigs i'm super interested at in that range and I like Walker's future at the 3, as well as Tony's at the 2. Assuming their future involvement would require more of an impact from the front-court offensively, barring both Walker and TA reaching max potential.

I think any big, wing, or guard obtained is short-term fix, which is consistent with Ainge's apparent "two year mandate" on all incoming contracts this year. I'd expect Ainge to target the group of Rasheed Wallace, Marcus Camby, Jeff Foster, and Channing Frye this off-season. They displayed a willingness to spend the MLE this past summer, so i'm assuming the "right guy" would be brought in for MLE cash in order to solidify the backup 5.

This is the main interest I don't see Baby hanging around. I agree he can play the 4, but nothing i've seen statistically or in their trend development makes me think Davis can beat out Powe at the 4. I think that their market value will play into this - both will get offers and if Powe earns above the team's valuation of him, they'll let him walk.

I don't think that'll happen, but I also think his usage is being suppressed by the 2nd unit's offensive prioritization and lack of chemistry. He and Tony Allen should be getting most of the set-up, but the team needs another vet to help Eddie House stabilize the unit. Eddie doesn't have enough of a voice by himself to get player movement right, but Mutombo would make sure that communication with the bigs would be fluid.

Hill would be gravy, but Phoenix is playing better and have Hill in the starting lineup. Jason Richardson is going to help them a lot because he is in his prime. Amare was alone as a focal point player, but now he has a wing man to play off of. This slots roles in perfectly for Phoenix, so they could be looking at 55 wins potentially. Buy-in will be huge, but I think Hill's unhappiness is being over-stated by the media. If Phoenix stays strong to their convictions, as Kerr tends to be, they will gel and be a threat.

No matter what, Boston will be able to get help where they need it, but they won't compromise their options short-term because that same salary slot, 4-7 million, can be the swing toward dominance for a team. They will inevitably have a value rating system for potential 2009 free agents already in hand, so I don't expect a 25-2 current record intimidating them into spending desperately.

The Spurs have run their payroll and roster like this for a decade and though Boston has a shorter window than Duncan and the Spurs enjoyed, both franchises are at a similar state in their development and maintenance. I expect Ainge and Rivers to successfully set this team up for a smooth transition because of their adherence to long-term planning.

Everybody wants titles, but nobody wants another 22 year drought. The ownership and management of the team share this desire, so I trust they will continue to be selective and really target specific talent for short-term success while mapping out a strategy for long-term restructure....and I love it....
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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#11 » by Jammer » Sun Dec 21, 2008 8:17 pm

Bill,

I find it interesting that you mention Giddens fitting in Oklahoma City.

I've been posting for a while that OKC needs a true SG,
and another PG with them expected to move Watson,
and Russell Westbrook not really a true PG.

The Thunder still have a trade exception (two, actually)
from the Wally/Delonte trade to Cleveland.

In addition to their own pick
OKC has San Antonio's 2009 First Round Pick (Top 15 Protected),
plus their own and New Jersey's 2009 2nd Round pick.

With 4 picks in a projected weak draft,
and those trade exceptions,
what do you think the chances of OKC
giving up San Antonio's 2009 First Round Pick for Giddens
or their own 2009 2nd Round Pick (likely #31 or #32) for Pruitt,
if Danny were to offer those players to OKC
(who right now doesn't have a roster spot,
unless they send out more than they take back in another deal)?
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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#12 » by billfromBoston » Sun Dec 21, 2008 8:43 pm

Jammer wrote:I think it's obvious that they have to make some moves to prepare for the challenge
of Cleveland, Orlando, the Lakers, Denver, Houston and others.

Starting Five Production

Team *********** MPG ********** PPG ********* RPG ******* APG ***** +/-
Cleveland **** 152.6 ********** 72.5 ********* 27.7 ******* 16.2 ***** 1388
Boston ******** 165.7 ********** 73.3 ********* 31.9 ******* 17.7 ***** 1310
Lakers ******** 148.5 ********** 73.8 ********** 29.5 ******* 14.6 ****** 870
Orlando ******* 173.4 ********** 80.9 ********* 31.9 ******** 14.3 ***** 769
New Orleans * 160.1 *********** 69.6 ********* 26.3 ******** 16.3 ***** 748
Houston ******* 165.3 ********* 71.7 ********* 30.8 ******** 14.8 ****** 642
Denver ********* 154 *********** 69.4 ********* 25.9 ******** 15.1 ****** 506

BENCH

Team *********** MPG ********** PPG ********* RPG ******* APG ***** +/-
Utah ************ 93.1 ********** 33.4 ********* 15.2 ******** 8.5 ****** 380
Lakers ********** 91.4 ********** 33.7 ********* 16.4 ******** 8.8 ****** 360
Cleveland ****** 87.4 ********* 29.9 ********** 14.9 ******** 4.8 ****** 337
San Antonio * 101 ************ 34.4 ********** 15.6 ******** 8.0 ****** 190
Portland ******* 97.7 ********** 35.9 ********* 17.4 ********* 8.8 ****** 155
Chicago ******** 88.8 ********** 34.5 ********* 16.0 ********* 6.5 ****** 149
Boston ********* 76.1 *********** 27.9 ********* 11.4 ******** 4.0 ******* 85


There is a difference between "have to" and "should," don't forget that.

Player rotations are not uniform and Boston has the best aggregate talent of the group. The starting 5 and bench units can't simply be separated and valued based off independent production metrics. What the main problem is with Boston's bench situation is it doesn't afford the team the luxury of many games where they can rest all of the starters for prolonged time.

Once the playoffs start this becomes less of an issue, with shorter rotations. The team would still like to upgrade, but its not such an necessity that you compromise your principle building plan. They'll make shrewd decisions on their personnel and not over-extend i believe.

Put it this way - the team could over-reach for a Joe Smith or they could sign a Mutombo and then make an offer to Rasheed Wallace this off-season. Wallace is at a stage in his life where a MLE deal may be feasible. He'd solidify the vocal leadership of the bench and would provide a go-to presence offensively while Powe, TA, and eventually Walker develop.

It may not happen, but it certainly has the potential to, based on a number of factors. There are other examples like that one as well.
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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#13 » by Jammer » Sun Dec 21, 2008 8:43 pm

I just realized that Grant Hill has the same agent as Ray Allen,
so Ray could probably find out what's going on with Grant.
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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#14 » by billfromBoston » Sun Dec 21, 2008 8:46 pm

Jammer wrote:Bill,

I find it interesting that you mention Giddens fitting in Oklahoma City.

I've been posting for a while that OKC needs a true SG,
and another PG with them expected to move Watson,
and Russell Westbrook not really a true PG.

The Thunder still have a trade exception (two, actually)
from the Wally/Delonte trade to Cleveland.

In addition to their own pick
OKC has San Antonio's 2009 First Round Pick (Top 15 Protected),
plus their own and New Jersey's 2009 2nd Round pick.

With 4 picks in a projected weak draft,
and those trade exceptions,
what do you think the chances of OKC
giving up San Antonio's 2009 First Round Pick for Giddens
or their own 2009 2nd Round Pick (likely #31 or #32) for Pruitt,
if Danny were to offer those players to OKC
(who right now doesn't have a roster spot,
unless they send out more than they take back in another deal)?


I think the potential is there for a move to OKC based off the team's interest in Tony Allen earlier in the year and because Giddens is a local, which a losing team trying to establish a fanbase desperately needs. I'd expect them to pursue Joey Graham in the off-season as well.

I don't know if Giddens has first round value, but their 2nd round pick is almost as valuable. Regardless, 1 or 2 players have to go in order to bring in some personnel, so something is going to be done and the value exchange may not reflect asset balance.
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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#15 » by Jammer » Sun Dec 21, 2008 8:53 pm

billfromBoston wrote:
There is a difference between "have to" and "should," don't forget that.

Not getting a true C like Mutombo makes playoff matchups against
Cleveland, Orlando and the Lakers much riskier.


What the main problem is with Boston's bench situation is it doesn't afford the team the luxury of many games where they can rest all of the starters for prolonged time.

Increasing the risk of injury, and more wear and tear, plus less time to recuperate.
Getting a Grant Hill would spare Paul Pierce a lot of pain, rest his legs,
and give the second unit another leader besides Eddie House.
Getting Davis off the floor might even make Tony Allen more effective.
Marbury would afford Rondo, Ray, Tony (on bad days) and Eddie
(when Eddie's bricking) a breather.
And most importantly, Mutombo would anchor the 2nd unit Defense
much better than Glen Davis (Mutombo is 6 inches taller, plus has
6 inches more reach with each arm, and a better vertical


Once the playoffs start this becomes less of an issue, with shorter rotations. The team would still like to upgrade, but its not such an necessity that you compromise your principle building plan. They'll make shrewd decisions on their personnel and not over-extend i believe.

Yep.

Put it this way - the team could over-reach for a Joe Smith or they could sign a Mutombo and then make an offer to Rasheed Wallace this off-season. Wallace is at a stage in his life where a MLE deal may be feasible. He'd solidify the vocal leadership of the bench and would provide a go-to presence offensively while Powe, TA, and eventually Walker develop.

I think the only way the Celtics will offer up Scal + (Giddens or Pruitt) for Joe Smith
is if they don't sign Mutombo. Of course, if Joe Smith is bought out, I'm sure they'd just
pick him up.

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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#16 » by Jammer » Sun Dec 21, 2008 10:11 pm

billfromBoston wrote: ...
I'd expect Ainge to target the group of Rasheed Wallace, Marcus Camby, Jeff Foster, and Channing Frye this off-season. They displayed a willingness to spend the MLE this past summer, so i'm assuming the "right guy" would be brought in for MLE cash in order to solidify the backup 5. ...


Personally I like Rasho Nesterovic, recently relocated from Toronto to Indiana,
formerly KG's sidekick in Minnesota.

That you don't mention him makes me wonder if you suspect him
to cost a lot more than the MLE?

- Jammer
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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#17 » by billfromBoston » Mon Dec 22, 2008 2:17 am

I just don't like his mobility as much as the other group - the guys I mentioned can be used at either the 4 or 5, Rasho is just a 5...he's solid though, I wouldn't pay him 5 million a year for 3 years though - not enough of an impact player to increase his contribution when necissary - he's not a "splash" free agent - can't blow up for 30 points or 20 rebounds on a given night as the others can do.
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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#18 » by MyInsatiableOne » Mon Dec 22, 2008 1:59 pm

I don't like Rasho at all...he's a decent player but I wouldn't want him here. We need some SCORING in the second unit...who out there would fit that bill?
It's still 17 to 11!!!!
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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#19 » by BillessuR6 » Mon Dec 22, 2008 3:18 pm

It would be great to have a Slovenian on the celtics but don`t see it happening. Rasho just isn`t athletic and quick enough for our team. But he really is a very solid player.

BTW, Jef Foster signed an extension, so he isn`t a FA next year...

The problem I see is that Danny seems to be clearing cap space for 2010 when majority of contracts end, so I am not sure if he is willing to sign players to 2-3 year deal. Yes, he offered Posey a 3 year deal but I wonder if next year he will do the same...

Camby or Rasheed would be perfect here...
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Re: Where we are now: the long and short 

Post#20 » by MyInsatiableOne » Mon Dec 22, 2008 3:58 pm

I'll take a pass on Marcus "Mr. Glass" Camby...and Rasheed, I've hated him for so long I don't know what I'd do if he was ever on the Celtics...he's like the ultimate un-Celtic...
It's still 17 to 11!!!!

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