The RealGM Wizards Board Draft Thread 2008/2009

[spaceman_E]

I haven't seen Hill. Does he have Horford's tremendous strength? He's not Horford without it - that's why Horford defended the big centers in college - not Noah. Can Hill man up against NBA sized centers?

Is he as freakishly strong as Horford? I couldn't say.

Yes you can, and the answer is no.

He is long and athletic, but every time I've seen him play (about 3 times) he looked lost and foul prone. Everyone says he's improved a lot this year so I will give him another look but I'd much rather he boosts his stock to give us more trade down options.

[Ruzious]

It's interesting that he's dominating defensively against the best opposing big men. Cole Aldrich is a helluva big, and he put up his usual 23/11 game and held Aldrich to 10/4. I watched some Youtube videos of him - I see where mhd makes the comparison to Horford - He's clearly been working the weights - dude is heavily muscled but still very athletic. He does not have the freakish strength of Horford, but he's a legit 6'10 (I think) and low 240's, and he's very aggressive - not a shrinking Blatche out there. There are questions about his hands. That's something I need to see in games. If his hands are good, he can probably be the 3rd or 4th pick. Right now, he's like Chris Wilcox was with an extra layer of muscle.

[go'stags]

The thing is, he is much more skilled than Wilcox ever was. Wilcox was never a great finisher, especially with his off hand-Hill has shown a tremendous ability to finish with both.

[Ruzious]

You may be right about Amino [I havent seen im play], but Patrick Patterson might be the last guy out of tis draft class who I would view as a potential "Lebron Stopper".

You mentioned finishing, so Patterson came to my mind. As a 6'8 18 year old frosh, he didn't get a whole lot of attention - partially because it looked like he'd be an undersized PF. As a 19 year old soph, his numbers are way up this season - even with his minutes per game are down. Has he gotten taller, and could he be in the high lotto mix?

[go'stags]

If Patterson is 6'10, I could see him as a high lottery pick, any less I dont know. I havent seen him this year, so maybe he has improved athletically, even though he was no slouch last year. But if your talking top 5 pick, I dont see it yet.

[mhd]

I want Jordan Hill!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_RCnKa39tI

Insane Highlights against Kansas. Shows everything you want in a bigman in today's NBA.

Simple sample:
1) Blow-by his man defender for a dunk.
2) Insane block.
3) Sick 18 foot jumper with nothing but the net.
4) Dribble, spin, and a lefty hook with ease (he's a righty)
5) Back down with strength and finish with the left hand off the glass.

This guy deserves to be in contention for the #1 pick in the draft. He's got an insane amount of upside. He takes it up strong. He finishes with both hands. He looks to be a legit 6'10.

[mhd]

Oh, and for good measure, here is some stats courtesy of draftexpress. (everything including per/40 and pace adjusted)

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jor ... 222/stats/

BTW, here are Blake Griffin's:

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Bla ... 268/stats/

Hill is suprisingly close to Griffin's production in terms of pace adjusted.

Blake Griffin gets 27, 16.6, 2.8 assists, 2 steals, 1.5 blocks, 4 turnovers, and 3 fouls.
Jordan Hill gets 24.3, 15.2, 2 assists, 1 steal, 3.5 blocks, 3.4 turnovers, and 3.6 fouls.

Seems to me that Hill could be a better defensive player at the next level with his huge edge in blocks, despite the small descrepency in fouls from both players.

[pancakes3]

maybe it's the hair, maybe it's the nightcap i just downed, but that kid reminds me of bosh. average hops but the reach is what makes it look so easy. the left hand isn't as good as advertised, it'd be blocked in the NBA. decent handles, decent jumper... uh oh... sobriety is setting in. he's closer to blatche than bosh. I'm sticking to my guns. We need a 2-guard and we should either draft one or trade the pick for one. he is good though, but not too good to pass on.

[AgentOvechkin08]

ok i brought up Jarvis Varnado earlier. He is thin but an explosive shot blocker, and i mean EXPLOSIVE

i thought i was reading it wrong but the guy is averaging 6, yes SIX blocks per game, and basically a double double. I wish his draft stock would stay at late first to early second round so we might be able to snag him in the early second.

This is after last season where he averaged 4.6 BPG. He is 6' 9 and having a RIDICULOUS 7' 4 wingspan helps.

How sick would that be if we landed Blake Griffin in the first and with our early second round pick get a guy like DaJuan Summers or a SG.

[Halcyon]

Hmm, I'll have to keep an eye on this Jordan Hill character. I'd love to have Griffin, but somebody like Hill seems to look like a nice consolation prize.

[Mr. Grundle]

Patrick Patterson looks impressive offensively. Great hands and great touch around the basket. Very fluid, great at cutting to the basket and finishing. The guy just looks extremely comfortable catching the ball in the post and going up with it. He's shooting 71% from the field and 77% from FT. He's only 6'8 but looks and plays bigger than that. Projected to go in the 2nd half of the first round I think this kid will be a steal for somebody.

[Ruzious]

Patrick Patterson looks impressive offensively. Great hands and great touch around the basket. Very fluid, great at cutting to the basket and finishing. The guy just looks extremely comfortable catching the ball in the post and going up with it. He's shooting 71% from the field and 77% from FT. He's only 6'8 but looks and plays bigger than that. Projected to go in the 2nd half of the first round I think this kid will be a steal for somebody.

That 71% really stands out, and he's got a surprising number of assists. The negative on his pace adjusted per 40 minutes stats is 10.3 - not that it's bad - but it doesn't compare well to the other PF prospects - Griffin, Hill, and especially to nate's boy - DeJuan Blair's amazing 20.2. Blair has the best pace adjusted per 40 stats. But would they be so good if he played 35 minutes a game rather than 26? The other PF in the mix is the guy from GA Tech, but he seems different from the others - he's the smallish athletic/non-stop motor type PF. Those type usually don't make it in the NBA - is my impression - but he's ranked higher in the mocks than Patterson and Blair.

[nate33]

Oh, and for good measure, here is some stats courtesy of draftexpress. (everything including per/40 and pace adjusted)

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jor ... 222/stats/

BTW, here are Blake Griffin's:

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Bla ... 268/stats/

Hill is suprisingly close to Griffin's production in terms of pace adjusted.

Blake Griffin gets 27, 16.6, 2.8 assists, 2 steals, 1.5 blocks, 4 turnovers, and 3 fouls.
Jordan Hill gets 24.3, 15.2, 2 assists, 1 steal, 3.5 blocks, 3.4 turnovers, and 3.6 fouls.

Seems to me that Hill could be a better defensive player at the next level with his huge edge in blocks, despite the small descrepency in fouls from both players.

You have made a very good case for Hill.

I'm sure everyone is a bit concerned about Griffin's lack of freakish length or athleticism. He just isn't the physical specimen one would hope to see in the #1 pick. There's a chance that he might be neutralized when defended by NBA bigs. Brendan Haywood, for example, would completely shut Griffin down. Griffin kinda reminds me of Al Jefferson. Jefferson puts up good numbers against mediocre defenders but true centers can shut him down. (In 11 matchups, Jefferson averages just 9.7 points per game against Haywood on 36% shooting.)

Hill has the athleticism to compete on an NBA stage. I also like his ability to face up and hit a 15-foot jumper. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Hill winds up being a better pro. At any rate, it looks like we'll have at least one high quality PF on the board even if we don't land the #1 pick in the draft.

If we end up picking at #2 or #3, our best option might be to trade down and draft Hill while dumping a bad contract or picking up a role player.

[mhd]

Oh, and for good measure, here is some stats courtesy of draftexpress. (everything including per/40 and pace adjusted)

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jor ... 222/stats/

BTW, here are Blake Griffin's:

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Bla ... 268/stats/

Hill is suprisingly close to Griffin's production in terms of pace adjusted.

Blake Griffin gets 27, 16.6, 2.8 assists, 2 steals, 1.5 blocks, 4 turnovers, and 3 fouls.
Jordan Hill gets 24.3, 15.2, 2 assists, 1 steal, 3.5 blocks, 3.4 turnovers, and 3.6 fouls.

Seems to me that Hill could be a better defensive player at the next level with his huge edge in blocks, despite the small descrepency in fouls from both players.

You have made a very good case for Hill.

I'm sure everyone is a bit concerned about Griffin's lack of freakish length or athleticism. He just isn't the physical specimen one would hope to see in the #1 pick. There's a chance that he might be neutralized when defended by NBA bigs. Brendan Haywood, for example, would completely shut Griffin down. Griffin kinda reminds me of Al Jefferson. Jefferson puts up good numbers against mediocre defenders but true centers can shut him down. (In 11 matchups, Jefferson averages just 9.7 points per game against Haywood on 36% shooting.)

Hill has the athleticism to compete on an NBA stage. I also like his ability to face up and hit a 15-foot jumper. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Hill winds up being a better pro. At any rate, it looks like we'll have at least one high quality PF on the board even if we don't land the #1 pick in the draft.

If we end up picking at #2 or #3, our best option might be to trade down and draft Hill while dumping a bad contract or picking up a role player.

Exactly Nate33. Follow the Minnesota model of last year'd draft (except don't pass on OJ Mayo )

Say the following happens where OKC gets #1 and takes Griffin, We end up with #2, and Minny gets #3. Minny really needs a wing scorer like Harden. We'd loved to take Jordan Hill. Trade Minny Stevenson+Etan+#2 for Mike Miller+#3. A deal like that would be gold.

[LyricalRico]

At any rate, it looks like we'll have at least one high quality PF on the board even if we don't land the #1 pick in the draft.

If we end up picking at #2 or #3, our best option might be to trade down and draft Hill while dumping a bad contract or picking up a role player.

I don't know if Hill will last that long. Assuming that OKC gets the #1 pick and takes Griffin, the only teams in the Top 5 that I can see passing on Hill are Minny and Sacto because they both have young PF/C combos already. Minny needs a SG like Harden and Sacto needs a SF like Clark. The Clippers might pass on him, too. But I don't see Hill lasting past Golden State, or even Charlotte/Memphis (if he gets that far).

Bottom line - If the draft were happening today with us picking #3 and Griffin/Harden are already off the board, I say we should probably take Hill.

[nate33]

It all depends on how the mock drafts look in July. Obviously, if we think Hill will go at #4, we shouldn't trade the #3 pick. Right now, the DraftExpress has Thabeet, Jrue Holiday and Stephen Curry ahead of Hill.

There are definitely scenarios where trading down makes sense. Let's say the draft order is as follows:
1. OKC
2. Washington
3. Minnesota
4. Clippers
5. Warriors

If Golden State or LA calls up and wants to trade up to draft Hardin, we should go for it. Minnesota will probably draft Thabeet. The Clippers definitely won't take Hill (Curry would be a good fit for them). Hill would still be on the board at #5.

Better yet, we should draft Hardin at #2 and then wait and see if Hill is still on the board before trading down.

[Ruzious]

I think it's getting clear that the only way Hill slides down to 5thish is if a clear weakness shows in his game - which would likely be his hands. If not, it could be a tossup between him and Griffin for #1 - considering he's showing the ability to be a much better defender than Griffin has. All this is great for the Wiz. If you get the 1st pick - maybe you consider trading down 1, but if you get the 2nd or 3rd pick - keep it. I don't buy Rubio being the factor in this draft that other people believe, because 1 - He might not be in the draft, and 2 - I think the hype about him is based more on internet sheep rather than his actual potential - which is good but not top 3 material.

[mhd]

I think it's getting clear that the only way Hill slides down to 5thish is if a clear weakness shows in his game - which would likely be his hands. If not, it could be a tossup between him and Griffin for #1 - considering he's showing the ability to be a much better defender than Griffin has. All this is great for the Wiz. If you get the 1st pick - maybe you consider trading down 1, but if you get the 2nd or 3rd pick - keep it. I don't buy Rubio being the factor in this draft that other people believe, because 1 - He might not be in the draft, and 2 - I think the hype about him is based more on internet sheep rather than his actual potential - which is good but not top 3 material.

Right on Ruz. However, OKC takes Griffin to build local support. I think the unquestioned top 3 in this draft are Griffin, Hill, and Harden. All three would be excellent picks for the Wiz. However, knowing the Wizards luck, we'll pick 4th

[Ruzious]

Hopefully Thabeet makes it a 4 player draft, but he's got to show he can play great against the better teams - something he failed miserably at last season. I've been watching Mullens play against WVU today. He's not a top 5 guy, imo. Tremendous size, moves well, shows good feet and blocks out, but he's simply not explosive and doesn't seem to be much of a defensive factor. His teammates don't help him much. He loves to pick and roll and does it well, but his teammates don't get him the ball. The one time they did, he got his shot blocked by a much smaller player.

A guy I'd be very happy with on round 2 is Terrence Williams - Louisville's other forward. Yeah, he's only 6'6, he's got putrid shooting percentages, and he plays out of control sometimes, but get his shooting coached up by Hopla and see if he can eventually play the 2. This guys is a great athlete with a super aggressive attitue and can make plays at both ends. He's boom or bust. Michael Finley had a lousy shooting percentage in college. He could be MF2.

[mhd]

Hopefully Thabeet makes it a 4 player draft, but he's got to show he can play great against the better teams - something he failed miserably at last season. I've been watching Mullens play against WVU today. He's not a top 5 guy, imo. Tremendous size, moves well, shows good feet and blocks out, but he's simply not explosive and doesn't seem to be much of a defensive factor. His teammates don't help him much. He loves to pick and roll and does it well, but his teammates don't get him the ball. The one time they did, he got his shot blocked by a much smaller player.

A guy I'd be very happy with on round 2 is Terrence Williams - Louisville's other forward. Yeah, he's only 6'6, he's got putrid shooting percentages, and he plays out of control sometimes, but get his shooting coached up by Hopla and see if he can eventually play the 2. This guys is a great athlete with a super aggressive attitue and can make plays at both ends. He's boom or bust. Michael Finley had a lousy shooting percentage in college. He could be MF2.

Rubio would make it a 4 man draft if he stays. Thabeet will be top 10 simply because of his height, and he's coordinated.

I think Terrance Williams is the best athlete in the draft. He's a skywalker, and he could potentially be a defensive wing. He reminds me of Tony Allen pre surgery, except Williams is more athletic. Good spot on a good prospect Ruz.