Cliff Notes: Cap Money in 2009?

[HL Slamdunk]

You may be right... but you know what else has been bleak? The number of quality free agents that have migrated to Minnesota over the years.

Yeah that's true, but that could change very easily if we get the right GM in town.

[the_bruce]

I think 5/52 contract to williams is a bad long term move. I think he's probably the best case outcome we can hope for given age and production, but I think it's overpaying him. To me he doesn't warrant much more than the MLE to be honest. If there was a recent fair salary survey on 82games I'd guess his value would be somewhere around 6m-8m/yr. I don't feel like he's demonstrated enough to warrant anything over 7m yr. I like his allround size and skills at the 3, but with a 5/52 contract you are probably over paying him 2-3m yr, or roughly 10-15m over 5 years. Sure he might become worth that contract, but do that with 2 contracts, and your overpaying 2 players for x dollars. Just bad business to overpay imo.

I guess the highest I'd go is 8/40~45, which I would expect the hawks to match. Overpaying a 5/52 deal does make the hawks think twice about matching, but our goals shouldn't be hey overpay so they dont match it should be offer player what he is worth to our team. We'd probably be better off using our cap space to help other teams clear money for FA's that would help their team to compete. Get some assets that way and use those assets to trade for a player later.

[4ho5ive]

I think 5/52 contract to williams is a bad long term move. I think he's probably the best case outcome we can hope for given age and production, but I think it's overpaying him. To me he doesn't warrant much more than the MLE to be honest. If there was a recent fair salary survey on 82games I'd guess his value would be somewhere around 6m-8m/yr. I don't feel like he's demonstrated enough to warrant anything over 7m yr. I like his allround size and skills at the 3, but with a 5/52 contract you are probably over paying him 2-3m yr, or roughly 10-15m over 5 years. Sure he might become worth that contract, but do that with 2 contracts, and your overpaying 2 players for x dollars. Just bad business to overpay imo.

I guess the highest I'd go is 8/40~45, which I would expect the hawks to match. Overpaying a 5/52 deal does make the hawks think twice about matching, but our goals shouldn't be hey overpay so they dont match it should be offer player what he is worth to our team. We'd probably be better off using our cap space to help other teams clear money for FA's that would help their team to compete. Get some assets that way and use those assets to trade for a player later.

Dude isnt even 23 years old yet!!! Luol Deng averaged 17 and 6.4 boards before his extension which went 6/$71M. Williams right now is averaging 14 and 6.3 boards as arguably the 4th option on his team. At best he's the 3rd option. 5/$52M would be a bargain for such a young talented player.

Luol Deng=6 years/$71 Mil
Iggy=6yr/$80 Mil
Maggette=5 yr/$50 Mil
Rashard Lewis=Ridiculous

All but Lewis were signed this past offseason. Iggy is better than MW, Deng is a little better, MW is at the very least as good as Maggette and way younger than both Mags and Lewis.

I would be ecstatic to get Marvin the Martian at 5/52.

If by some miracle we land a top pick and a)Rubio comes over this year however unlikely or b) also unlikely, but much more possible, we land a pick high enough to land Harden and move into the lottery again and take Thabeet we would be in a great position going into next year. Thabeet, Jefferson, Williams, Miller, Foye with Love, Brew and Harden off the bench would be an exciting young team to watch that could blossom together.

[GopherIt!]

Thats my main arguement right now. This is where making that Marbury/Wally/Rose/Snow trade could prove very helpful.

Here is a link to the Free Agents. http://allrecipes.com/Recipe/Buffalo-Ch ... ail.aspx...

...Its a no brainer in my book. We will come up empty in 2010. Shoot for 09. Not sure how much more of this team I can watch anyways.

Thats the best looking FA dip i have ever seen

Shoot for '09 and get a good meal out of it...

PG: Guacamole
SG: Chicken Dip
SF: Hot Wings
PF: Chili Cheese Fries
C: Corona's w/ lime

[younggunsmn]

1. Any dreams of '09 cap space died with the mayo trade because it essesntially moved about 7 mil from '10 to the '09 cap. before that trade we were looking at 11-12 million in '09 cap room. We'd have to give up too much value (draft picks) to create enough room to make a worthwhile signing, and I just don't see a player who fits. If okafor, ellis, or biedrins hadn't been extended I might be tempted.

2. NO WAY is marvin williams worth 10 mil per year, and he is not a fit here because he can't shoot the 3 consistently. He is more of an undersized 4. We have a very similar player making 1/4 that money who can shoot the 3 (Gomes). Udrih just surpassed jaric as the worst contract in the NBA. Lewis, Deng, Iguodala, and Maggette are all horribly, horribly overpaid. I put williams' value at 7 mil/year tops. Josh Smith is much, much more valuable because of his out-of-this-world shotblocking, stealing, and rebounding.

3. I think Lebron and wade re-sign, and bosh ends up in new york. It would be great to have him, but I doubt he comes to a team with another dominant low-post scorer like Al, he will want to be "the man" wherever he signs. Besides pairing another guy who plays no d with Al is not a good idea.

Personally I think we should've gone hard after gerald wallace before charlotte made the richardson trade, he is exactly what this team needs at sf. defender, slasher, scorer, rebounder, and can shoot the 3. Maybe he is still available. gomes+cardinal+miami pick works.

I'm starting to think we're not going to get utah's pick this year (top 22 protected), especially with boozer having surgery now and missing another month. I actually prefer it that way since this draft is looking weak after the top 5-10 and we may not have a pick in 2010. Miami's pick will probably end up in the 16-18 range the way it is looking now unless philly or toronto really pick it up.

with that thinking I think we'd be better off dealing miami's pick if we can land a clear long-term upgrade at any position other than PF (like a Gerald Wallace or Kaman).
In order to turn things around I think our front office needs to reverse the mistake of the mayo trade and trade multiple mediocre assets for one really good player.

Gomes+cardinal+miami pick to CHA
for G. Wallace.

2009 picks:
Ours - Thabeet
BOS - PG/SG

FA's - let mccants walk

2010 picks
Ours - to LAC
Utah - ?

2009 lineups: (min)
PG: Foye (24), Telfair (24)
SG: Miller (32), Foye (12), Bos pick (4)
SF: Wallace (34), Brewer (14)
PF: Jefferson (34), Love (10), smith (4)
C: Thabeet (30), Love (18)

Jefferson will look much better on d when he has a defensive beast on each side of him. We will only be forced to go with a small iineup against the other team's 2nd unit, and only for a short period. Plus wallace can guard the kobe, wade, lebron, brandon roy type players.

[big3_8_19_21]

how would Gomes, Cardinal and Miami's 1st EVER land Gerald Wallace?

[4ho5ive]

Thats a worse proposal than the original Collins+McCants+1st that was shot down.

I would be near suicidal if we took Thabeet with our likely Top 5 pick. Im all for using assets to move back into the top 10 and trying to grab him, but hell no to taking him in the Top 5.

Also younggunsmn, you should note that a very large portion of players in the nba are overpaid.

Since when can Crash shoot the 3? He has never shot above 32%. Williams has actually rounded out his game towards the 3 point lint this year and is shooting a respectable 37%.

[john2jer]

Thats a worse proposal than the original Collins+McCants+1st that was shot down.

I would be near suicidal if we took Thabeet with our likely Top 5 pick. Im all for using assets to move back into the top 10 and trying to grab him, but hell no to taking him in the Top 5.

Also younggunsmn, you should note that a very large portion of players in the nba are overpaid.

Since when can Crash shoot the 3? He has never shot above 32%. Williams has actually rounded out his game towards the 3 point lint this year and is shooting a respectable 37%.

One of the things Mavrin Williams was known for coming into the league was his ability to shoot. His first three years in the league he didn't shoot for even decent percentages, but that was more because he never shot the three. This year he's been shooting a lot more, especially from the corner and he's shown he can knock that shot down, .375. He's great from the free throw line. He averages 13-15 a game as a 4th option, and he's pulling down 6+ rebounds a game from the small forward position on a positive rebounding team. Put him in a Wolves uniform where he becomes a 2nd or 3rd option and really only has Jefferson and Love to compete with for boards, and you're probably looking at 16pts and 8rbs a game. Yeah he's similar to Gomes, but he's younger, has more potential, is a better all-around shooter, has proven to be a better defender, and adds much needed size to the line-up. He's not as a great as adding a 7 foot center, but if we're going to be undersized at the 4 and 5, we better try to go big at the 3 and 2, with Mike Miller/Corey Brewer, if we're going to try and compete. He adds versatility to the line-up. I love Gomes, but I think his versatility is more due to a lack of options than anything.

Minnesota hasn't exactly done that great with bringing in quality free agents, and we're a horse-poo team, so over-paying a little will be required, plus we can afford to. 7mil a year isn't going to get it done for Marvin Williams.

[the_bruce]

Luol Deng=6 years/$71 Mil
Iggy=6yr/$80 Mil
Maggette=5 yr/$50 Mil
Rashard Lewis=Ridiculous

[/quote]

Yes and all these guys are overpaid.

Lets ignore the fact mags got a 3m yr increase, his value is probably in the range he got 8-10m

Lewis meh.

Iggy is overpaid, but only because he is an incomplete player. Good defender/Scorer, but from what I've seen he can't be your goto guy. Can't hit the long ball well enough for me either. He's just a younger Magette that plays both ends of the floor. I think he's the sole player listed who could become worth his contract in what you listed.

I haven't watched Deng at all this year, but never thought he deserved that sort of length and money.

Maybe I'll try and watch some hawks games to see how well he defends some of the bigger 3's.and how well he defends quicker 3's. Maybe then I'd form a more exacting opinion of him that would sway me. I do like his physical makeup and length, and from what Ive seen he would be a good fit but I don't like 5/52. The one problem I do see is there aren't many good fits at the 3 in FA this or next year aside from him. The draft this year has nothing impressive either, and 3's take some time to develop so that's not a great option either.

I do agree MN will probably need to overpay. But to free up this sort of money will take moves. At the very least MN would need to ship 2 of Gomes\Bassy\Smith for expirings this year. That's a best case scenario where MN doesn't pay extra assets to free up salary. Moving cardinal and Madsen would be difficult without $$ or other compensation. Probably in the realm of 3-6m? It will become an expensive proposition just to sign a guy. Add to the simple fact that the hawks probably do match based on their current cap numbers and it looks like a wasted effort.

[john2jer]

Wasted effort is better than no effort, especially if it results in us moving crap we don't need anyways.

There's a lot of great names in both the 2009 and 2010 free agent classes, but there's issues with both.

2010 obviously there's the big names, most of which won't sign with the Wolves.
2009 there's some good names as well, overall not as strong as 2010 in star power, but the guys in the range the Wolves can get to, only Marvin Williams fits with age, contract, potential, and need. He's the perfect target for the Wolves.

Of the over-paid guys mentioned about, how many were turning 23 during the summer they became free agents and could sign their contract? Not to mention Marvin Williams is putting up for the msot part the same stats as Maggette and Deng while being a 3rd or 4th option, the other two were 1st or 2nd options.

Everyone in the NBA is over-paid, you have to compare them against each other. I'd rather have Marvin Williams than Deng or Maggette based on age, fit, and potential. 5/52mil might be SLIGHTLY over-paying, but like said before, we're going to have to. It still leaves us PLENTY of room to sign a max free agent in 2010.

If we stick to the MLE, we're never going to get the stars needed to turn the franchise around.

[4ho5ive]

Me and John2jer are on the exact same page here. Marvin>Lewis and Mags based on fit, price and potential. I'll take Marvin at 5/52 over Iggy and his $80M. And even though I think Deng will eventually get back to where he was before his contract, I think Williams has more potential in the long run.

Deng was the only guy that is as young as Marvin when he signed his contract, but that is up for debate.

I think one of two moves would be something along the lines of:

Madsen + McCants + Booth to NY for Malik Rose + Anthony Roberson.

I thought I read somewhere that Booth's contract is mostly being paid for. The Knicks still end up paying less money in the end and we get another good expiring.

[john2jer]

Philly is either paying for Booth's or Carney's contract, I forget which, but probably Booth's.

If we can clear just a little more space to sign Marvin, that would be awesome, especially if enough room could be cleared to make it a top heavy contract, thus clearing space for future years. I doubt that would work, though.

Market totally decides contracts. And really the market for Marvin Williams is good for him and any team that tries to sign him. There are a couple teams with enough room to give him more than the MLE, but not enough that it's going to sky rocket his contract. And really, I'd love to hear any other potential options that are realistic amongst the 2009 or 2010 free agents, or potentially available trade targets. Boozer, Rip Hamilton, Shawn Marion, and the like, those guys don't make sense for the Wolves.

Honestly I think it comes down to Marvin or bust. Add him with a couple quality rookies from this year's draft like Harden, Thabeet,. or Derozan and we look a lot more attractive to one of the bigger name free agents in 2010.

[shrink]

Philly is either paying for Booth's or Carney's contract, I forget which, but probably Booth's.

Good memory! Its all of Booth's $1.3 mil, and part of Carney's $1.65

[john2jer]

Philly is either paying for Booth's or Carney's contract, I forget which, but probably Booth's.

Good memory! Its all of Booth's $1.3 mil, and part of Carney's $1.65

I had a feeling that was the case.

I assume that arrangement stands if we were to move Carney or Booth somewhere else.

[shrink]

Market totally decides contracts. And really the market for Marvin Williams is good for him and any team that tries to sign him. There are a couple teams with enough room to give him more than the MLE, but not enough that it's going to sky rocket his contract.

This is another good point. I'd also add that the economics of the NBA are changing as well, so while the true stars still get the big contracts, the minor stars and role players (even potential starters!) have been receiving far lower contracts. In the past, MLE deals were handed out like candy, but in the last two years, all teams have combined to give out only a few full MLE deals. We loved the responsible new contracts we got on Craig Smith, Telfair and Ryan Gomes, but these were accepted because other teams weren't offering more. If you look at the free agent market for non-stars last year, smaller deals were the norm, not the exception. We saw hold-outs on borderline star players like Ben Gordon, and a guy like Anderson Varejao actually had to sit out. Its a buyer's market right now.

[shrink]

1. Any dreams of '09 cap space died with the mayo trade because it essesntially moved about 7 mil from '10 to the '09 cap. before that trade we were looking at 11-12 million in '09 cap room. We'd have to give up too much value (draft picks) to create enough room to make a worthwhile signing, and I just don't see a player who fits. If okafor, ellis, or biedrins hadn't been extended I might be tempted.

First, bravo on giving this succinct description of the financial ramifications of the draft night trade. This is exactly the way to describe it, and I try to include it this way whenever people are trying to misrepresent the trade, either for the positive "And we cut out Jaric's money!" or negatively, by ignoring this altogether. I see a lot more of the latter, and they often say things like, "It was basically Love for Mayo." It most certainly was not, since Mike Miller is probably our #2 guy (though he hasn't shown it yet). And while transfering $7 mil from 2010 to 2009 doesn't sound impressive to the everyday fan, we all realize that it makes Cardinal a valuable expiring in 2009, whereas Jaric would have been a highly unmovable contract, because of the huge interest in 2010 by so many teams in the NBA market.

However, I'll disagree with you that dreams of 2009 cap space are dead. Unlike in previous years, the Wolves have several highly mobile assets that we could deal or combine for an expiring or two, and we only need to clear about $4 mil to beat the MLE. My dreams for cap space, whether we'd use them here or not, are very much alive.

[john2jer]

I thought I read somewhere that it's been like 2 years since someone got the full MLE or something, and the year before that only 2 people did? That's going strictly off memory, so it might be wrong, but I know the number of MLE is drastically lower than it was even 5 years ago.

Memphis is one of the teams available to offer more than the MLE, and they're already set at the 3, and I don't think Marvin is a true 4, although with that team, he might work.

[invno1]

The Timberwolves deserve the 1st pick this year in the draft, it would really be helpfull for them.

[4ho5ive]

Memphis is probably looking at Boozer as much as Miami. Though Miami is a sure bet to actually get him. I dont see Memphis throwing money at Marvin like they did with Josh Smith last year. He can get by playing the 4 moreso than Marvin. Though I could be wrong, maybe they want Mayo at PG and Gay at the 2?? Doubtful but who knows.

Miami will probably look to sign Boozer, i wouldnt be surprised to see Memphis go after a guy like Ben Gordon honestly. I think the market for Marvin, as well as 09 in general is small, and we need to take advantage.