Evaluate WRs

[deep throat]

-= original quote snipped =-



I believe you have sold his speed and overall athleticism a little short. For instance, he is very good at adjusting to balls in the mid to long range. He's also not very small at a hair under 6 feet, 200 pounds. He has an extremely solid build for his height.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/statistic ... &year=2006

Chad Johnson is barely bigger than Jennings and weighs less. Harrison is obviously not very big. Reggie Wayne? Evans, Holt, Bruce, etc. Jennings is plenty big enough and talented enough to consistently be one of the top in the league in receptions, yards, and TDs.

His big play ability and run after the catch are also aspects that are underrated in my mind. He has excellent foot speed and is a powerful runner because of his build and strength.
Obviously, I see him as being a very good player. As a Packer fan, I'd say the Sterling Sharpe comparison is a very good one.

The speed was timed so it's pretty hard to dispute that (4.48 40). Athletically he is fine. He is a little smaller then you would like (5'11" 197).

Chad Johnson weighs roughly the same, but is 2" taller at 6'1" (sometimes listed as 6'2"). His best 40 time is 4.27 and his vertical is 40" (Jennings is 36 1/2"). Marvin Harrison ran track at Syracuse and has run sub 4.3 already. Evans runs 4.3 and the rest of the players you mentioned are faster as well. Reggie Wayne is kind of borderline- I think that's Jennings high water mark, but he will never have a Peyton manning throwing hm the ball to help pad his stats.

The bottom line is he has average (to a tad below) speed and size. He reminds me a lot of a young Driver. He seems to be a hard working guy and like Driver will maximize what he does have. Driver has been in the Pro Bowl so I can see Jennings getting there as well. I don't see making the Pro Bowl as the measuring stick of how good a player is. I think there are players who haven't made the Pro Bowl, yet are great (and vice versa).

The best receivers in the league in my opinion are-

Steve Smith
Chad Johnson
Roy Williams
Javon Walker
Tory Holt
Lee Evans
Marvin Harrison
Anquan Boldin
Andre Johnson
Terrell Owens
M. Colston
Larry Fitzgerald
Randy Moss (when he wants to be)
Calvin Johnson (will be)

No objective NFL fan in his right mind would put Driver or Jennings above any of these players. Would you (take out Moss)?

That's enough players to put on about half of NFL rosters. The thread was saying how good the Packers are at WR. I repeat they have about the 15th best WR group in comparison to the rest of the league. Maybe that is pretty good when you consider the TE and RB positions would rank just about dead last (no better then 28th). Favre is just about done, if they don't make a significant move there that will also be one the worst in the league.

Notes:
A couple quotes from the current issue of ESPN fresh off the presses-they did a bunch of rankings on payers in the NFL (fantasy Football);

Favre #17 - "Sketchy protection, and his receivers wont due him any favors"

No RB in top 35

NO TE in top 25

Driver #8 "Silky smooth receiver, and vastly improved route runner. While he's awfully drop-prone for a vet, he's alway's in Brett Favre's
sights"


Jennings #35 "A young Keenan McCardell-he isn't very big (5'11") or fast, but he's quick and runs sharp routes. He just gets open makes the catch and goes"

Pretty much everything I said. I didn't realize that Driver dropped more passes in the NFl then anyone a year ago. Driver was listed as having the 2nd worst hands in the NFL (Troy Williamson had the worst).

[ssssssnake]

Steve Smith - Better than Driver right now
Chad Johnson - Better than Driver right now
Roy Williams - Better than Driver right now
Javon Walker - Better than Driver right now
Tory Holt - Better than Driver right now
Lee Evans - Equal to Driver but younger so better
Marvin Harrison - Older than Driver. I'll still say Harrison is better.
Anquan Boldin - Better
Andre Johnson - Better
Terrell Owens - I'd take Driver
M. Colston - Better
Larry Fitzgerald - Better
Randy Moss (when he wants to be) - I'd take Driver
Calvin Johnson (will be) - Better

By my count Driver is the 13th best WR in the league. That means we have a better WR than 17 other teams. Acctually the Lions have two so we have a better #1 than 18 other teams. If you put up the names of #2 WR's, I'll bet Jennings fares well too. Again, he hasn't proven what these guys have but I thought he showed the skills to be a good NFL WR. Maybe even as good as Driver which would mean we have two of the top 15 WR's. It's hard to call that a weakness IMO.

[ssssssnake]

Favre was hampered by the Oline
Our running game has been hampered by the Oline
Our TE's have been hampered by the Oline

If the Oline sucks, our offense sucks; simple as that. If our Oline plays good, I think we can have a good offense, even in the redzone.

[El_Lobo_3]

jennings could be a pro bowl wr, but he isnt going to be that playmaker type like the guys on the list mentioned before...i think jennings needs a tall lanky playmaker wr on the other side of the ball before he really breaks out...neither driver or jennings will ever be that guy, they will both be extremely dependable and solid wrs as long as they stay healthy, but they just wont be that playmaker, they are the perfect compliments to a playmaker with their smaller, speedy size...they need a dwayne jarrett type wr, if jarrett pans out, Steve Smith is going to become so much better because of the threat jarrett presents on the other side...thats kinda what we need here

[ssssssnake]

Do you realize that most of the WR's on Drugbusts list arn't that big lenky WR that you mentioned. There really arn't that many 6'3", 6'4" guys who are ultra effective. Maybe what? 4 or 5 in the league?

[ssssssnake]

I definitely think he has Pro Bowl potential. I think he will be an elite receiver actually. He has an outstanding feel for the position for such a young player and seems to be very underrated athletically.

I agree.

[Ayt]

The speed was timed so it's pretty hard to dispute that (4.48 40). Athletically he is fine. He is a little smaller then you would like (5'11" 197).

Chad Johnson weighs roughly the same, but is 2" taller at 6'1" (sometimes listed as 6'2"). His best 40 time is 4.27 and his vertical is 40" (Jennings is 36 1/2"). Marvin Harrison ran track at Syracuse and has run sub 4.3 already. Evans runs 4.3 and the rest of the players you mentioned are faster as well. Reggie Wayne is kind of borderline- I think that's Jennings high water mark, but he will never have a Peyton manning throwing hm the ball to help pad his stats.

The bottom line is he has average (to a tad below) speed and size. He reminds me a lot of a young Driver. He seems to be a hard working guy and like Driver will maximize what he does have. Driver has been in the Pro Bowl so I can see Jennings getting there as well. I don't see making the Pro Bowl as the measuring stick of how good a player is. I think there are players who haven't made the Pro Bowl, yet are great (and vice versa).

Jennings high mark was 4.42. Jennings also had the best cone time of any WR in his class. That is plenty fast for a WR and 197 is plenty big in terms of build. 4.42 speed is not below average for a WR.

Combine results

You can go through drafts all the way back to 1999 by changing the year in the URL from that link.

2001 WR results

Note Chad Johnson's time? The main reason he wasn't a higher pick was his very subpar 40 time of 4.57. Where the hell did you get him at 4.27? Also note his vertical at 33. Not quite 40 inches as you posted above. Max vert is overrated in football anyway, provided it isn't like 25. Deep balls are much more about timing and body control. Also, Steve Smith's time is there as well; 4.41.

If you go back to 1999 you'll see Holt ran a 4.44.

Deion Branch ran a 4.47.

Go through the years for yourself to see how fast a lot of guys timed out as.

I don't see the Driver comparisons at all. Driver weighed 174 when he entered the league. He was a 7th rounder and a huge project. Jennings had more receptions and yards during an injury plagued rookie season than DD had in his first three seasons combined. Jennings also played well enough -- despite the high ankle sprain -- to be named to the All-Rookie team alongside Colston.

I'd love to see some verification of Harrison running a sub 4.30 forty. He's never been known as a burner. He's just fantastically skilled in all aspects of being a WR.

[Ayt]

BTW everyone, I think that site I linked to is phenomenal. You can check the combine results of every draft for every position going back all the way to 1999. All you have to do is click on whichever position you want then change the year in the URL to whichever you want to look at.

Not all guys test out at the combine so all results aren't there, but most are.

AJ Hawk really had exceptional numbers. His 4.59 40 wasn't great, but his cone and shuttle were some of the highest you'll find, especially given his size. If you go through the years, its hard to find anyone with a better cone, and only a few have a better shuttle and that is over multiple drafts.

[ssssssnake]

Nice work AYT. I spent about 10 hrs at practice watching ONLY the WR's last year. Jennings dropped one ball in that entire time. He made the most catches in camp and made them look relatively easy. You did an excellent job supporting the "Jennings could be great" theory. Just watching him play is evidnece as well. I understand teh RB worries because nobody is proven but I feel like we're in good shape at WR.

I'll probably make it to 6 or 7 practices over the next month. I'm going to watch only the interior Oline and interior Dline. If our interior Oline can hold up against our good interior Dline I think everything will be OK on offense. We have RB's who can run through holes. We have WR's who can catch. We have a QB who can throw. We just need to be sure that we have a line that can block. They got beat up, esspecially in the run, last year. If they can run block I feel good about the whole offense.

[Ayt]

I wish I lived closer. It is always fun to just go and hang out and watch the team practice.

I definitely agree with you about the lines. We need good line play on both sides, especially offensively. Hopefully the young OL got in a ton of work in the offseason to get their bodies up to NFL standards. Also, hopefully Jenkins can carry over his solid DE play from last year, KGB can be more productive as a situational guy, and Harrell can play healthy the whole year and provide some beef in the middle.

When I really think about it, or DL situation looks very good on paper. We can bring in both KGB and Corey Williams on passing downs. The addition of Harrell could help to better free up our LBs. A front 4 of Jenks, Harrell, Pickett, and Kampy looks very formidable against the run. Could be a fun season.

Also, everyones favorite "waste of a pick" James Jones has apparently been quite impressive so far. We'll see if that carries over to training camp.

[deep throat]

Jennings a 5'11" 190-197 and a 4.42/40 (that is a better time then I found on the Official NFL site-that site is old news-not always that accurate) is pretty good, but it doesn't change the fact he is 5'11". Again, I'm not picking on Jennings (as said before he could make Pro Bowl-high praise). What I'm saying is I don't see him as a premier big play WR. He is roughly the same size as Driver is and like Driver is not known as a burner. Both guys are good character guys, and work hard in practice. Add all that together and that's why I make the comparison.


You look at the best WRs that have been coming out, you see size as a key.

The best WR in years to come out Calvin Johnson 6'5" 239 4.35

Last years top performer - Marques Colston 6'5" 224 4.5(shade below Jennings), but nice vert and broad J.

Roy Williams 6'2" 214 4.48

Andre Johnson 6'2" 230 4.40

We had one in Javon Walker 6'3" 210 4.38



These guys are the "rule" you can always find the exception to try and make an argument work for you. The trend has been to find guys with top tier speed, and length to take balls away from the smaller CBs in the NFL. It may not seem like a lot = 5'11" to 6'2"-but when you add arm length and reach that little bit makes a difference.

some more #'s

Chris Chambers -6' 211 4.33 -stronger and faster then Jennings, but has had injuries and no QBs.

Santana Moss 5'10" 181 4.31-has that extra gear (best time that year), very shifty.

PS: 6'1"Chad Johnson claimed he was hurt, he also claimed (with support) that he ran a sub 4.3 40 at sOregon State. It was in an ESPN article from that time by Kiper-you can look it up. Why he slipped into the 2nd round. If you look at the better players and ones drafted in first two rounds(not all the players drafted) you will find 5'11"/4.42 is pretty mediocre.


These are recent draft picks (from 2002 in) that I see as superior to Jennings, and would put as true game breaker guys. I know I'm posting this on a Packer forum so I'm not surprised to see people think he is a top 10 WR All-World guy after not even one full season, but it will never be the case IMHO. That's a GB fan with blinders on analysis - I think the recent ESPN article summed up what the objective consensus view is; "he isn't very big (5'11" ) or fast, but he's quick and runs sharp routes-a young Keenan McCardell".

I don't know what else can be said. Where do you see his upside? As I keep saying he is a excellent prospect, I just don't see him in the class of a Calvin Johnson, Roy Williams, Andre Johnson, Chad Johnson, Randy Moss, T.O., Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Lee Evans, Javon Walker, Steve Smith, Marvin Harrison, and Tory Holt to name a few.

I see him more in the class of a Reggie Wayne, Darrell Jackson, and Mark Clayton (Baltimore-not the Dolphin). I see him as a dependable target with very good ability (just not elite). A borderline to better#1 guy, and top flight #2. A guy that should put up good and maybe great numbers if he is the go to guy in a pass offense (like Driver).

[Ayt]

We've had quite a back and forth here, DT. Its been awhile since we've done that civilly.

I just think I see Jennings as having more big play potential that you. Wayne and Jackson are more possession types, whereas I think Jennings is going to a be a guy that causes some real problems with his ability to time and adjust to deep balls very well and his ability to run after he catches it. Wayne and Jackson both tested out as much slower and less athletic than Jennings, and I think that shows on the field, though both are very solid WRs with a good feel for the game and good hands.

Clayton is nearly identical in terms of combine numbers, but he's shorter at only 5-10 3/8 to Jennings 5-11 1/8. Being 7/8 of an inch shy of 6 feet isn't a huge deal.

I understand exactly what you are talking about in terms of "elite" WRs with prototypical size and hopefully speed. Andre Johnson, Roy Williams, CJ, Walker, Bolden (fairly slow), Fitzgerald (also slow), etc. Ideally, you want your 6-2, 6-3 freak out wide, but it doesn't always work out that way and the NFL leaderboards year after year are filled with guys that don't fit that mold.

Of the current active WRs, here are all time NFL rankings in terms of yardage:

Harrison, 6th
Bruce, 7th
Owens, 16th
Rod Smith, 17th
McKardell, 18th
Moss, 22nd
Holt, 23rd

Moss and Owens are the only big dudes on that list. Harrison, Bruce, Smith, McKardell, and Holt are not blessed with great size or outstanding athleticism (though they are still quite good athletically as far as the position is concerned overall).

If you recall, I have compared Jennings to Rod Smith several different times and Joe Horn. Smith was a solid #1 for most of his career playing in a run heavy offense, and Horn was a great WR during his short peak.

I honestly don't think a comparison to Holt is completely out of line either. They tested out as nearly idential athletes -- with Holt a hair taller at 6-0 1/4. The thing that makes him so great is his fantastic feel for the position and his great hands. I see the exact same thing in Jennings.

Best case scenario, I see him as a Holt type player. A more realistic favorable projection would have him as a Rod Smith -- long, very productive career -- or a Joe Horn -- A Horn that actually got PT before his 5th season. I'll be surprised if he isn't better than Jackson. I will admit it is tough to get a really good read on Wayne because he plays with the Colts. I don't think the offense makes him entirely, since he does have great hands and excellent instincts, but he probably wouldn't be considered as good if he had to be the man on a different team.

I guess your best case -- or likely projection -- is my worst case in many ways.

[ssssssnake]

Wow, AYT, I don't think I could agree more with what you said. Jennings has the speed and explosion to get separation but his greatest skill is his ability to adjust to and catch the ball when it is thrown. A lot of guys can run fast, not too many of them can run fast and track down a ball while a SS if trying to take his head off. Jennings just has a feel for the position and makes plays. That cannot be underestimated.


Look how many of those lenky superstud WR's won the SB DT. Not many.

Almost all SB teams have a good QB, a good Oline and a good defense. Good, solid, Jennings type WR's have traditionally gotten the job done. Rice wasn't a freak. Freeman/Rison wern't freaks. Harrison wasn't a freak at the point in his career that he won. None of the NE guys were. A good QB, a good Oline and a defense is much more important IMO.

[Ayt]

The most impressive thing to me about Jennings beyond his excellent poise and instinctual ability to play the position is his ability to adjust on the mid and long range throws to shield himself and make the grab with perfect timing. Lots of "freaks" can't make catches like that because it comes down to body control and timing as much as height and vertical.

That being said, being a tall freak certainly helps, but some "little" guys have such a great feel that they are nearly unguardable one on one in those types of situations; I think Jennings will definitely be one of those guys. Steve Smith is nearly impossible to stop one on one even in what most consider "jump ball" type situations and he's a 5-9 midget.

After saying all I have in this thread, I will say I definitely prefer WR that are 6-3, 220 and can fly, but in actuality those guys are rare. Javon was one hell of a WR and I hated to see him go. He and Sharpe are my two favorite Packer WRs ever. That being said, I think Jennings is going to turn out to be the next truly great Packer WR.

[El Duderino]

As a Packer fan, I'd say the Sterling Sharpe comparison is a very good one.

I like Jennings,but i don't see much Sharpe in him.Sterling was two things,ran great routes and was all about power.He played bigger than his size and just powered through corners and safties,i don't see anything really that close to Sharpe's ability in that regard.Just having somewhat simular frames doesn't equal simular skills.

If you on a scouting scale rated Sharpe's game strength/power on a scale of 10,he was a 9 at the lowest and 10 would be my guess for most scouts.While Jennings didn't get a full season to show all his skills,i didn't see him powering through tacklers much.He has showed some strength and can break tackles once he gets going,but i saw him do it more via smarts/instincts.

I see him being a very good No.2 reciever or a below average No.1 as he goes forward,but that's still good for a second round pick.I'll be glad to be wrong if he's better than that.

[deep throat]

We've had quite a back and forth here, DT. Its been awhile since we've done that civilly.

I just think I see Jennings as having more big play potential that you. Wayne and Jackson are more possession types, whereas I think Jennings is going to a be a guy that causes some real problems with his ability to time and adjust to deep balls very well and his ability to run after he catches it. Wayne and Jackson both tested out as much slower and less athletic than Jennings, and I think that shows on the field, though both are very solid WRs with a good feel for the game and good hands.

Clayton is nearly identical in terms of combine numbers, but he's shorter at only 5-10 3/8 to Jennings 5-11 1/8. Being 7/8 of an inch shy of 6 feet isn't a huge deal.

I understand exactly what you are talking about in terms of "elite" WRs with prototypical size and hopefully speed. Andre Johnson, Roy Williams, CJ, Walker, Bolden (fairly slow), Fitzgerald (also slow), etc. Ideally, you want your 6-2, 6-3 freak out wide, but it doesn't always work out that way and the NFL leaderboards year after year are filled with guys that don't fit that mold.

Of the current active WRs, here are all time NFL rankings in terms of yardage:

Harrison, 6th
Bruce, 7th
Owens, 16th
Rod Smith, 17th
McKardell, 18th
Moss, 22nd
Holt, 23rd

Moss and Owens are the only big dudes on that list. Harrison, Bruce, Smith, McKardell, and Holt are not blessed with great size or outstanding athleticism (though they are still quite good athletically as far as the position is concerned overall).

If you recall, I have compared Jennings to Rod Smith several different times and Joe Horn. Smith was a solid #1 for most of his career playing in a run heavy offense, and Horn was a great WR during his short peak.

I honestly don't think a comparison to Holt is completely out of line either. They tested out as nearly idential athletes -- with Holt a hair taller at 6-0 1/4. The thing that makes him so great is his fantastic feel for the position and his great hands. I see the exact same thing in Jennings.

Best case scenario, I see him as a Holt type player. A more realistic favorable projection would have him as a Rod Smith -- long, very productive career -- or a Joe Horn -- A Horn that actually got PT before his 5th season. I'll be surprised if he isn't better than Jackson. I will admit it is tough to get a really good read on Wayne because he plays with the Colts. I don't think the offense makes him entirely, since he does have great hands and excellent instincts, but he probably wouldn't be considered as good if he had to be the man on a different team.

I guess your best case -- or likely projection -- is my worst case in many ways.

Your right and I am glad we could. You draw out your case well, and I agree that I don't see him being quite the big play guy you do.

I would point out that Reggie Wayne ran 4.45/40 -virtually the same although he was listed at 6' 198 -He had the same vertical, and that was the only test he took besides the 40. I didn't look up Jackson- as I recall he didn't run that well and it caused him to slip a little. The bigger point of me mentioning these two were that they were Pro Bowl or close types that have put up big numbers, but they are not quite in the same class as the players I mentioned. I wouldn't argue with the comparison you made of Horn and Rod Smith - I would put them on the same par as the guys I mentioned (Wayne/Jackson).

The prototypical size thing is pretty new- I can't recall a lot of 6'2"+ 220+ guys that ran sub 4.4's or in that range in the past so the All-Time leader board could change as time goes on. Barring injuries I can't see how some of these guys I mentioned wont be there when it's all said and done - Andre Johnson, Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, etc. If your high water mark is a Holt or maybe Rod Smith I can't really argue with that. I think that is practical.

Let's hope he stays healthy and maybe some day we see him on that All-time list. He seems to have the right work ethic and character -which in todays NFL is at least half the battle. I don't know if there has ever been two players more talented then Randy Moss and TO at the position, but look at the off-field issues these two guys have had. If they had the focus, humbleness, and consistent work ethic of guys like Jerry Rice and Marvin Harrison it would be scary how good these guys could have been.

[deep throat]

As a Packer fan, I'd say the Sterling Sharpe comparison is a very good one.

I like Jennings,but i don't see much Sharpe in him.Sterling was two things,ran great routes and was all about power.He played bigger than his size and just powered through corners and safties,i don't see anything really that close to Sharpe's ability in that regard.Just having somewhat simular frames doesn't equal simular skills.

If you on a scouting scale rated Sharpe's game strength/power on a scale of 10,he was a 9 at the lowest and 10 would be my guess for most scouts.While Jennings didn't get a full season to show all his skills,i didn't see him powering through tacklers much.He has showed some strength and can break tackles once he gets going,but i saw him do it more via smarts/instincts.

I see him being a very good No.2 reciever or a below average No.1 as he goes forward,but that's still good for a second round pick.I'll be glad to be wrong if he's better than that.

I agree - Sharpe was so strong that opposing CBs could not use bump and run. The only WR that I can think of off hand that has that kind of physical strength in todays game is Hines Ward (and he's not quite in Sharpe's class). Come to think of it you could probably throw in Anquan Boldin, TO, and Roy Williams.