This is related:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-r ... oa-ratingsGreen Bay ends up with 8.9 Pythagorean wins, which means the difference between their actual win-loss percentage and the Pythagorean projection is -.183. The Packers end up ranking as the ninth most "unlucky" team since the 1970 merger. As you might expect, eight of the other nine teams in the top ten improved the following year, most by three wins or more. On the other hand, Green Bay's DVOA rating has dropped from fifth after Week 11 to 16th at the end of the season. Yikes.
And this from the same author the week prior:
Speaking of which -- Honestly, how often can one team lose by less than a touchdown? Actually, the record seems to be eight. Since the merger, three teams lost eight games by less than a touchdown: the 2001 Panthers, the 1993 Patriots, and the 1984 Browns. The Packers have now lost seven games by four points or less.
You won't be surprised to learn that the Packers have the biggest difference in the NFL between their actual wins and their Pythagorean wins (explained here, for those who don't know the concept). You don't see a lot of teams that go 5-10 despite outscoring their opponents. Right now, the Packers are on pace to underachieve their Pythagorean projection by .213, which would be more than any team since 1981. Standing in their way... the team with the second-biggest gap this year (.167), the winless Detroit Lions. It's likely that this week's game will move both teams' win totals closer to their Pythagorean projections... unless the Packers actually figure out a way to lose to Detroit. In which case, man, there is just no justice in this universe.
