Aldridge: Better Values in 2009 Free Agency

[shrink]

Fewer involved '09 teams=more '09 opportunity. By one team president's math, at least 16 teams already have cleared or will likely have cleared enough cap room by the summer of 2010 to be able to pursue at least one max-level free agent. By contrast, the team president figures, only five teams will be in a similar situation next summer.

He didn't specify, but it's not hard to figure them out: Atlanta, Memphis, Minnesota, Oklahoma City and Portland. Detroit could become a sixth, but only if it renounces its free agent rights to both Iverson and Wallace, which is extremely doubtful. Portland's flexibility may well be compromised if the contract of Darius Miles, waived Tuesday by Memphis, ultimately winds up back on the Blazers' books, costing them $9 million in cap space and near double that in possible luxury tax payments. Atlanta has to decide how much to put into Mike Bibby and Marvin Williams.

A One and a Five beat a Pair of Threes. The '10 group is lousy with wings -- big wings, small wings, fast wings, shooting wings. But so is the whole NBA. The worst teams in the league -- Oklahoma City, Washington, Minnesota, Memphis -- all have perfectly fine wing players. It's the point guards and centers that most of them lack, and so does the 2010 class.

Point guards available in two years: Nash. He's it. And he'll be 35 on opening night, 2010.

Point guards available next year: Kidd (who, granted, will be 36 on opening night, 2009), Miller and Bibby.

Quality bigs under 35 in two years: Bosh, Nowitzki and Chandler.

Quality bigs under 35 next summer: Boozer, Okur, Varejao, Wallace. Not-great-but good ones include Dallas' Bass, Chicago's Gooden and Atlanta's Pachulia.

The article is a good read, and reinforces many of the points I've been making for months.

http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/0 ... index.html

[Frozen316]

Players who I would be 25 or younger (I think they all would be) that I would be interested in -
2009: Cedric Simmons, Brandon Bass, Linas Kleiza, C.J. Watson, Josh McRoberts, Ramon Sessions, Rodney Carney, Mouhamed Sene, Marcin Gortat, Kyrylo Fesenko, Paul Millsap.

Sadly, Hakim Warrick would be 27

I feel that 26 or older is kind of a "veteran", and I would rather have a cheaper younger guy.

[Mattya]

Okur would be a nice fit offensively, and has hit a lot of big shots in utah, don't know if he would want to come here over staying in Utah though. I like Gooden as well.

Its gonna be difficult for the Wolves to get the aging veterans, JKidd, is gonna sign for cheap for a definate championship contender, thats if he actually decides to keep playing.

But its gonna be easier to lure free agents in 2009 than in 2010 when pretty much every other team has cap space. Unless the Wolves keep winning, hopefull, but less likely, nobody will really want to come here in place of a winning team, but i guess we never really know.

[B Calrissian]

Marion might be too old for the money he will probably want but a Marion/Love/Jefferson frontcourt would be nice. Like Utah had with AK/Boozer/Okur.

[4ho5ive]

Id rather have AK than Marion

[southern wolf]

Marion is only going to go downhill.

[B Calrissian]

Id rather have AK than Marion

As would I.

[Biff Cooper]

It definitely seems like there are going to be some deals to be had. Some teams will use exceptions to get players in, but it seems like there are going to be more players available than buyers. Don't think we should be overpaying unless it is someone we love, (and then it probably isn't considered overpaying if it looks like a good deal a year from now).

[Devilzsidewalk]

could just be us, Memphis, and OKC then w/ Atl needing to watch their finances and Pdx possibly getting screwed by Miles. Problem is, there's only 1 max free agent out there, and we have no need for Boozer.

I'd like Varejao, but he probably wants too much cash for the role he'd have.

What about Artest, is he worth looking at? He's almost a perfect player if he'd accept his Bruce Bowen role because he's a good long range shooter and defender, but he fancies himself a big time playmaker on offense.

Endless red flags, but I can't help but be tempted by how low his price tag is gonna be. He's almost in MLE range.

.

[revprodeji]

It is all about us being able to offer a huge number to marvin williams.

I would contact ATL and express our intention. Give them the chance to do a s/t.

[C.lupus]

Players who I would be 25 or younger (I think they all would be) that I would be interested in -
2009: Cedric Simmons, Brandon Bass, Linas Kleiza, C.J. Watson, Josh McRoberts, Ramon Sessions, Rodney Carney, Mouhamed Sene, Marcin Gortat, Kyrylo Fesenko, Paul Millsap.

Sadly, Hakim Warrick would be 27

I feel that 26 or older is kind of a "veteran", and I would rather have a cheaper younger guy.

I don't mind adding a young vet in the 26-28 age range - old enough to know the league and be a leader, yet young enough to get 5 solid years in. Anyone over 30 is a no-no for a leader-type role. Maybe a decent backup PG or C that could be a player-coach/mentor for a young prospect but that's it.

I really don't want Artest on this team. If his head was screwed on right, he would be great - a SF that can be a great defender and hit some shots. Problem is, his head isn't screwed on right and I don't want him influencing the young guys. Honestly, I would rather just develop Brew.

[Devilzsidewalk]

how much is Marvin Williams really worth though? He's young and you'd be paying for anticipated improvement and that's always a dangerous proposition - especially for a guy who really hasn't lived up to his draft status. He's good for a late lotto pick, not a #2. Is he ever gonna be an all star forward? Probably not, but then can you pay 8 figures to a guy thats probably never gonna be an allstar? Is he a good defender, or a beneficiary of Josh Smith and Al Horford? And isn't it alarming that for UNC and now ATL too that he was the 5th best player on a good team? Wolves need a #1 guy to make a bad team good, but Williams looks more like a solid addition that makes a good team better. At UNC he was this raw athletic 6th man who just needed the minutes to break out into a monster beast, but at ATL he's had 35 mpg opportunities, but looks like the exact same player.

[shrink]

could just be us, Memphis, and OKC then w/ Atl needing to watch their finances and Pdx possibly getting screwed by Miles. Problem is, there's only 1 max free agent out there, and we have no need for Boozer.

One unlikely thought I've had is that having no need for Boozer might make him more likely to choose us over MEM or OKC, because he doesn't want to be stuck with any of us, and we would be likely trade him where he wants to go. His price wouldn't be excessive either in 2009 .. in 2010, that could be a different story.

I think its highly unlikely Boozer stays in UTA, and has already told the media he will opt out. If his injuries hadn't soured fans on him, that announcement surely did. We also know Boozer is all about the money, as he demonstrated in CLE.

Suppose Boozer wants to go to MIA (where he has a home), but they trade Marion's expiring for more talent. They would be able to make an offer to us in December of Mark Blount (expiring) + "stuff" .. likely their 2009 pick (*if we don't get it outselves), and a future pick. Our 2010 cap plans are just as viable as before, and we've used the leverage of our financial position (timing), to our benefit. We've also sent Boozer out of the West.

Yeah, I know this is very unlikely, but what step in this is the fail? Boozer opt out? Boozer not wanting to go to MEM or OKC, and be stuck on a loser for a few years? MIN using the money for the one true max-deal player in the bunch, or letting it sit? MIA offering an expiring plus assets for Boozer?

[john2jer]

how much is Marvin Williams really worth though? He's young and you'd be paying for anticipated improvement and that's always a dangerous proposition - especially for a guy who really hasn't lived up to his draft status. He's good for a late lotto pick, not a #2. Is he ever gonna be an all star forward? Probably not, but then can you pay 8 figures to a guy thats probably never gonna be an allstar? Is he a good defender, or a beneficiary of Josh Smith and Al Horford? And isn't it alarming that for UNC and now ATL too that he was the 5th best player on a good team? Wolves need a #1 guy to make a bad team good, but Williams looks more like a solid addition that makes a good team better. At UNC he was this raw athletic 6th man who just needed the minutes to break out into a monster beast, but at ATL he's had 35 mpg opportunities, but looks like the exact same player.

At UNC he was a freshman on a stacked veteran team, can't really complain about him being their 6th man. It's not like he was there 4 years and never cracked the starting line-up.

In Atlanta he's a key piece that glues the team together. He's the guy making the extra pass and hitting the outside shot. He's their youngest starter, 4th leading scorer, 3rd in rebounding, he doesn't turn the ball over, and gets to the line more than Horford does and averages better than 3 for 4 from the line per game. And he's doing that on a winning team with a loaded starting line-up and a horrible bench. I think when you consider he's the 4th option and putting up those stats for a winning team, imagine the leaps he'd make playing for a team that really only has 2 legit long term starters, and other than Al Jeff, I use the word "legit" loosely.

He doesn't turn 23 until June 19th. Meaning he'll be going for his first free agent contract at the same age that Foye entered the league. How can we expect Foye to improve, but not Marvin Williams, when I'd say Williams has showed just as much as Foye at a younger age. Yeah maybe not the scoring outbursts, but the better all around game, plus contributing to a winner, balances it out. Maybe Marvin Williams wasn't worth the 2nd pick of his draft, but what does that have to do with the contract he earns this summer? Nothing. Where you were drafted doesn't mean squat the day after the draft, no way it should still matter 3 years later.

Again, and this has been my argument since the start, of the possible free agents in 2009, Marvin Williams is the only one that fits the Wolves based on potential, age, position, and contract size. Everyone else is too old, too expensive, or is a PF.

[mandurugo]

One concern would be spending max money on Boozer and then not being able to get rid of him. Running a rotation of three undersized forwards for the bigs isn't impossible, but it's not a sure path to success. Also, if Boozer's injuries are a sign that he's going to start being injury prone, that would be a disaster. Besides, even if he's not injury prone but proves unmoveable for other reasons, who wants to cheer for Boozer?

[Devilzsidewalk]

ok I'm sold, I'd offer Marvin Williams 4 years 45 million

But not Boozer - if Utah decides not to mess w/ a s&t and roll w/ Okur/Millsap (very reasonable) we could swoop in on Boozer and work out a trade later, but what if we can't work out a trade; we wouldn't really be in the driver's seat; Boozer might actually end up playing on the team for awhile and he's made of glass. We could easily end up with a max player who's injury-prone, plays no position of need whatsoever, and is kind of a ****.

*edit - wtf, they started bleeping out **** ? Fine, he's kind of a penis head. Happy?

[shrink]

Yeah, but he's a 21-11 ****** , so I'm not concerned about finding a suitor.

Boozer played 81 games last season, but he has had injuries in the past.

[C.lupus]

I'd rather just stay out of the Boozer fray. Maybe we can be part of a trade so another team can free up more cap space to sign him. Other than that, I would just focus on who we actually want on the team.

[shrink]

When I've mentioned it in the past, someone accused me of it being an "NBA-Live" move. I don't play the game, so I'm going to go with an adjective I heard once last year .. "maverick."

Yeah, I know this is kind of far-fetched, but we kind of backed ourselves into a little corner here. Since we bought out the contracts of Hudson and Juwon Howard (and I don't disagree with the move), we no longer have them to trade as expirings for the 2009 Free Agency. What we have is cap space, and the ability to sign a player for more than the MLE .. an ability that only two other teams might have. Its kind of like Aldridge said, having the free cash at the right time.

To me, assets are assets. They have values, and they can be traded. I'd be happy to trade cap space to another team to sign Boozer, but most teams aren't far enough under the salary cap themselves so that even with our cap space, they could still make a max deal. Any team can trade for Boozer though, if we acquire him. We have a financial advantage in 2009, and if we do nothing, it simply devolves into the 2010 cap space everybody has.

Anyway, I still think this is a longshot, but I wanted to put it on the table. I know front offices don't do this. Its risky financially, depending on the player they'd sign. However, I wanted to throw it out there, as a potential opportunity.

[stop-n-pop]

I think the Wolves would be better served to approach Atlanta about a sign-and-trade for Williams. RFA signings are kind of like hostile takeovers and you never know what kind of bad karma the team will stir up should they try to outbid for Williams. Plus, it puts them in a bad spot having to wait around with all their eggs in one basket while other more attractive options are taken off the table. This way, they could have things move a bit more quickly and not have to have a large part of the equation be out of their control.

Another option is Trevor Ariza. He is unrestricted and would probably come at a similar cost to Williams. He is young, athletic, and can rebound and defend. He's a solid, solid young player.