Portland's last piece - Indiana's first step

[jowglenn]

I've seen a lot of chitter chatter about Portland using Lafrentz and some young pieces to consolidate their SF position. I've seen some crazier trades that have them consolidating their PG position (which I think is actually stronger than people think)

Right now, portland has outlaw, webster, and batum at sf

and blake, rodriguez and bayless at PG.

I think if they could consolidate those so they basically have only two guys at each/either position, but the starter is a clear upgrade, I think they should do it. I've seen some bad suggestions (Baron Davis to PDX! Tracy McGrady to PDX!) some debatable ones (Hinrich and Deng to PDX!) and some ludicrous ones (Vince Carter to PDX!)

So if they want to upgrade the SF or PG spot, they need a few things:

SF: 3-point shooting, passing, and the ability to defer in the offense to Roy, aldridge, et al. Outlaw has lived up as best as you can ask, and batum has brought the defensive presence and youth that they can keep and have as a starter/backup depending on what they need. So I think outlaw and webster are the expendable ones here. Outlaw because his trade value won't go any higher, and webster because he's simply the odd man out

PG: They've got Blake, Rodriguez, and Bayless. Oh, and Brandon Roy in crunchtime.

What do they need? Well, basically, Steve Blake. He has done everything he could be asked of (same with Outlaw). The only difference is the wild inconsistency behind him. Rodriguez was finally starting to show some talent, but he seems to be stuck in the same place he was before... a speedy playmaker on one of the slowest jump shooty bang-it-out teams in the league. They could work with it, and use him a lot with fernandez as a tempo-changer, but I think they want to consolidate talent now. Bayless? Well for a 20 year old project, he has actually picked up some good spot minutes, and shown why he could eventually be great value from where he was picked.

They need a more consistent, veteran version of Rodriguez. Someone who can come in and do NOW what rodriguez has the potential to do.



So here is my proposal.


Portland trades:

Raef LaFrentz
Travis Outlaw
Martell Webster
Sergio Rodriguez
Channing Frye
Lotto-protected 2009 pick



Indiana trades:

Mike Dunleavy
T.J. Ford
Jeff Foster
Stephen Graham




Portland keeps Oden, Aldridge, Roy, Fernandez, Batum, Blake, and Przybila, (and even bayless!) who all share most of the credit for their success so far. They add a starting caliber PG who will be a perfect counterpoint to Blake, a starting caliber SF who shoots, passes, and will play with the team, and a quality backup big in Foster who can rebound and defend the post players of the west.

Their line up is

Blake/Ford/Bayless (or Ford/Blake/Bayless!!!)
Roy/Fernandez
Dunleavy/Batum/Graham
Aldridge/Foster
Oden/Przybila


This. This is a team that will win a championship. The players they get are exactly what they need, and they keep so much of their core it is ridiculous. I'm sure some blazers homers will say 'uggggh dunleavy has a bad contract' but does he? not anymore. The guy had a career year last year, and after being injured has come RIGHT BACK AT THAT LEVEL. I think this deal would be a steal for the blazers.



So why on earth would the pacers do it??

Well, it's been an interesting time lately. Danny Granger has emerged as a bona-fide all-star caliber guy. We have him under contract for the next 5 years. The pacers have shown a lot of progress, but to what end? Last year they were one spot out of the end of the playoffs, and this year, if everything went right, they could, at best, be behind the celtics, cavs, magic, hawks... heat... pistons.... nets....

Remember where they were just 2 years ago? saddled with jermaine o'neal, al harrington, stephen jackson...

Well fortune turned. They traded to get murphy and dunleavy (and their bloated contracts), they moved o'neal, miraculously, for expiring nesterovic, ford, and hibbert. Murphy and Dunleavy have actually played up to their contracts (well, dunleavy... murphy has almost played up to his contract.)

But something strange happened this season. With Dunleavy injured, Marquis Daniels has quietly made a bid for most improved player. When Ford got injured, Jarrett Jack has provided a steady, if unspectacular hand, at point guard. As a long-time pacers fan, I am reminded of a rich man's Haywoode Workman. This is a compliment. The fact is, as the saying goes, buy low and sell high. We bought Ford and Dunleavy low, and we could sell them high.

New lineup:

Jack/Rodriguez/Diener
Daniels/Webster/Rush
Granger/Outlaw/Rush
Murphy/Outlaw/Frye
Hibbert/Nesterovic/frye/murphy

They have their own pick (which will most likely be top-10), portland's pick (22-27) and Nesterovic and Lafrentz expire. They can extend Jack, package their picks to move up in the draft (and get Greg Monroe), and then dangle Outlaw and Daniels expiring contracts at next year's trade deadline for a SG upgrade if Webster and Rush don't pan out.







I think this trade is good. For everyone involved.

[Raps in 4]

Toronto fan here, TJ has too much talent to come off the bench, and he knows it so I don't see him being happy about this deal. This trade doesn't really seem to really do much for either team, but then I haven't heard of half these players, so I don't know.

[Agenda42]

I'm not terribly excited about this deal for Portland. The Blazers would be taking on lots of salary here -- Dunleavy's deal is terrible, Foster's isn't very good, and Ford's is mediocre.

I think the Blazers are probably better served to just go into free agency than do this.

[Wizenheimer]

this isn't a bad try at a trade.

the problem I see with it from portland's perspective is that it leaves portland without any credible backup PF. Travis Outlaw is the backup PF, and frye backs him up. Foster just wouldn't be suited for that role on portland and the blazers already have oden, pryzbilla, & aldridge to pluc in at C.

My suggestion would be to drop outlaw and foster out of the deal, then Portland may consider it, even though that's a lot of long-term salary to take on board.

[Spykes]

I would never consider Ford or Dunleavy Portland's "last piece". I've never been a big fan of either player. Neither Pritchard or McMillan like small PG's and obviously he has a extensive injury history that isn't going to sit well considering the Blazers recent history with chronically injured players... As for Dunleavy, outside of last season, he's been consistently under-preforming. And at this point, I'm not ready to say that last season was anything more than a fluke for him. Just don't see him to be a particularly good fit for the Blazers either.

All that said, the players mentioned do represent an upgrade in some areas. Take out Foster from Indy's side and Outlaw from the Blazers side, then I think this gets a little more consideration from the Blazers...

Dunleavy
Ford
Graham

for

LaFrentz
Webster
Sergio
Frye
2009 First Round Pick (lottery protected)

Blake/Ford/Bayless
Roy/Fernandez
Dunleavy/Batum/Graham
Aldridge/Outlaw
Oden/Przybilla

That's solid. Still not sure those are ideal fits for Portland and as such, I'm not convinced Portland would want to pay the high price these guys cost, but it's got some potential. Ford's fast pace would really fit that 2nd unit well.

[jowglenn]

that's fair, if you are afraid of the salary. But Foster's contract is actually quite good. He is one of the more underrated rebounders/defenders in the league, and he's not paid too much. He's a veteran of many many playoff games, and would prove invaluable out west against big men like duncan, bynum, gasol, shaq, yao.

Dunleavy's deal is not terrible. It once was, yes, but there is simply no question that he has played well enough that he is now paid just about right. He was terribly misused in Golden State, and once he came to the pacers, he showed everything that once made him the # 3 pick in the draft.

Just for reference, since he's come back from injury, he has played in 5 games, and his stats are:

13 pts
3.4 rbs
2.5 asts

in 17 minutes a game. After being out the whole season. Yeah, he's paid 9 or 10 million a year. For a guy like him, I think that's fair value. you look at other wing players who are making quite a bit more than him... michael redd, richard jefferson, tracy mcgrady, vince carter.... and NOW we're talking about horrible contracts.

And T.J. Ford would probably start. And I think he'd do just fine.


At least you're not trading for some aging, overpaid 'star' like mcgrady. you're trading for fairly paid, specific need-fulfilling players

[Spykes]

that's fair, if you are afraid of the salary. But Foster's contract is actually quite good. He is one of the more underrated rebounders/defenders in the league, and he's not paid too much. He's a veteran of many many playoff games, and would prove invaluable out west against big men like duncan, bynum, gasol, shaq, yao.

Portland has Przybilla for that. I think Foster and Przybilla are far too similar to be played together at PF and C. Moreover, Przybilla has more experience guarding bigmen out West since he's been playing against them 4 times a year for the past 5 seasons.

Dunleavy's deal is not terrible. It once was, yes, but there is simply no question that he has played well enough that he is now paid just about right. He was terribly misused in Golden State, and once he came to the pacers, he showed everything that once made him the # 3 pick in the draft.

Just for reference, since he's come back from injury, he has played in 5 games, and his stats are:

13 pts
3.4 rbs
2.5 asts

in 17 minutes a game. After being out the whole season. Yeah, he's paid 9 or 10 million a year. For a guy like him, I think that's fair value. you look at other wing players who are making quite a bit more than him... michael redd, richard jefferson, tracy mcgrady, vince carter.... and NOW we're talking about horrible contracts.

If he can keep his numbers up from last season, then ya, he's a reasonable contract. I'm just not sold on him yet myself.

And T.J. Ford would probably start. And I think he'd do just fine.

He probably would start, but I still don't see him being a good fit with the Blazers starting unit. He'd be a square peg in a round hole with Portland's half court offense.

[jowglenn]

Portland has Przybilla for that. I think Foster and Przybilla are far too similar to be played together at PF and C. Moreover, Przybilla has more experience guarding bigmen out West since he's been playing against them 4 times a year for the past 5 seasons.

I'm not talking about specific experience against the particular West bigmen, I'm talking about his skills. Foster is generally renowned as a great post defender. Przybila is too, I know, and you're probably right that they duplicate each other. But when you're playing out west against duncan, shaq, yao, boozer, stoudemire, nene, bynum, gasol, nowitzki..... it would be pretty darn nice to have 3 top-notch big man defenders to throw at them. Oden, Przybila, AND Foster? that is the absolute best way to defend against the big men of the west. Keep throwing bodies at them. (and let's face it, aldridge is not a great defender against these types of players)

and if you feel that it's too many defensive bigmen, you can always use him for this year's playoff run, and then turn around and trade him over the summer. There are plenty of teams that need veteran big guys, and you would have plenty of suitors.

[Spykes]

Portland has Przybilla for that. I think Foster and Przybilla are far too similar to be played together at PF and C. Moreover, Przybilla has more experience guarding bigmen out West since he's been playing against them 4 times a year for the past 5 seasons.

I'm not talking about specific experience against the particular West bigmen, I'm talking about his skills. Foster is generally renowned as a great post defender. Przybila is too, I know, and you're probably right that they duplicate each other. But when you're playing out west against duncan, shaq, yao, boozer, stoudemire, nene, bynum, gasol, nowitzki..... it would be pretty darn nice to have 3 top-notch big man defenders to throw at them. Oden, Przybila, AND Foster? that is the absolute best way to defend against the big men of the west. Keep throwing bodies at them. (and let's face it, aldridge is not a great defender against these types of players)

and if you feel that it's too many defensive bigmen, you can always use him for this year's playoff run, and then turn around and trade him over the summer. There are plenty of teams that need veteran big guys, and you would have plenty of suitors.

Aldridge is solid. He's not great and can be a bit inconsistent on D, but he's no slouch either.

Regardless, I just don't see Foster as a good fit at backup PF (I don't particularly find ANY of these players to be "good" fits, but Foster is the worst of them). Outlaw is a better fit as he gives the Blazers a lot more offense in the 2nd unit and he creates some mismatches as well.

So again, as long as Outlaw and Foster are dropped from the deal, this would at least get some consideration from the Blazers.

[vege]

Well if Foster is the problem and you guys need a backup PF add Detroit into the mix. Kwame + Max for Portland and Foster for Detroit.
Detroit would even get out of Luxury tax with that trade and would gets a Center. Portland gets their backup PF and perhaps can send Kwame for a team like Atlanta for something they can use i don't know.

[Agenda42]

At least you're not trading for some aging, overpaid 'star' like mcgrady. you're trading for fairly paid, specific need-fulfilling players

Yes, what you're saying is all true. However, you have to remember that Portland is not trading fairly paid players for these guys. Webster at $4M a season is a much better deal than Dunleavy at $10M a season. Rodriguez isn't as good as Ford, but he makes only $3M over the next two seasons.

From a moneyball perspective, I think the guys on the Portland side of the deal are better values than the Indiana side of the deal.

[old rem]

Indy is basically giving 3 starters and Portland takes about their top 6 assets off the table..then rather unnessecerily protects the pick? Indy gives a simple one word answer. Tinsley. Replace Ford with Tinsley and the Blazers probably can keep the pick or Sergio,maybe both. This is not too far off. Indy however will be likee any team...say..yeah, you get what YOU need and we get who you think is expendable.

[Spykes]

Indy is basically giving 3 starters and Portland takes about their top 6 assets off the table..then rather unnessecerily protects the pick? Indy gives a simple one word answer. Tinsley. Replace Ford with Tinsley and the Blazers probably can keep the pick or Sergio,maybe both. This is not too far off. Indy however will be likee any team...say..yeah, you get what YOU need and we get who you think is expendable.

Before you get on your high horse about Blazer fans overrating their players, realize that this idea came from a Pacer fan...

And the second Tinsley's name starts to come out of Bird's mouth, Pritchard hangs up.

[Red Robot]

This is definitely an interesting idea that displays a lot of familiarity with the Blazers' situation. It's well thought out that the Blazers don't give up any of their biggest contributors. Portland definitely gets back a lot of talent, and I don't think they would care about the incoming contracts.

The problem I have is that the returning players aren't great fits in my opinion.

Ford, as other posters have identified, fits with the 2nd unit, but not with the starters. In Portland's system, the point guard is asked to make a lot of jumpshots, and that's not something Ford would would be comfortable with. His driving and playmaking ability would be somewhat limited next to Roy, and he also turns it over more than the mistake-conscious McMillan would prefer. TJ would get very few opportunities in the open court. He's also not cut out to be a great defender in Portland's zone. In the end, I think the Blazers could use Ford, but I think some other team could make much better use of him. Why not send him there instead?

Dunleavy is a great fit offensively. The original post describes what the Blazers are looking for from their small forward: someone who cam shoot well, pass well, play within the system, and defer to teammates. But defensively, I'm not so sure. I haven't watched his defense lately, but I remember him as the sort of player who does well mentally but struggles with some physical limitations. McMillan seems to really value defense from his starting 3. He's started Nicolas Batum, Ime Udoka, and Victor Khryapa in front of more talented players for this reason. I'm not sure Dunleavy really fits the bill as the Blazers' small forward.

Foster, a talented defensive big, would be useful to anybody. I don't have a big problem playing him next to one of the centers.

I'd consider this trade as a Portland fan, but I think it needs something else before it's a great trade. Maybe a third team willing to accept TJ Ford for a point guard more of the Blazers' liking.

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

Dunleavy doesn't have a bad contract, at least not in our eyes. He can pretty much do it all offensively, obviously his defense is the question mark, but he will give it 100% every night and has a high I.Q. We have no problem with his contract. Foster doesn't have a bad contract either, he leads the NBA in offensive rebounds per48 and is solid on defense. He doesn't even get credit for half of his rebounds as they are tip outs. I see no reason as to why Ford wouldn't be a good fit in Portland, he would just be another weapon for opposing teams to guard. Frankly, I think a lineup of Oden, Aldridge, Dunleavy, Roy, and Ford can basically hit you from all angles.

That being said, its a very iffy deal for the Pacers. There is no way in the world we would consider Spykes deal, the original deal would be interesting though. I think the first deal works for both teams. The Pacers get a few role players, a pick, and cap space that could result in having the money for Boozer or Millsap. That being said, I don't think Bird would do it, but sign me up.

[ZackMc72]

I am a troll

[Spykes]

Dunleavy doesn't have a bad contract, at least not in our eyes. He can pretty much do it all offensively, obviously his defense is the question mark, but he will give it 100% every night and has a high I.Q. We have no problem with his contract. Foster doesn't have a bad contract either, he leads the NBA in offensive rebounds per48 and is solid on defense. He doesn't even get credit for half of his rebounds as they are tip outs. I see no reason as to why Ford wouldn't be a good fit in Portland, he would just be another weapon for opposing teams to guard. Frankly, I think a lineup of Oden, Aldridge, Dunleavy, Roy, and Ford can basically hit you from all angles.

That being said, its a very iffy deal for the Pacers. There is no way in the world we would consider Spykes deal, the original deal would be interesting though. I think the first deal works for both teams. The Pacers get a few role players, a pick, and cap space that could result in having the money for Boozer or Millsap. That being said, I don't think Bird would do it, but sign me up.

They're essentially the same deals, just simplified. I can't imagine Outlaw being a huge sticking point, especially when the Pacers get to keep Foster. Foster is just incredibly redundant for Portland imo. I just really have a tough time imagining him and Przybilla meshing well together in that 2nd unit.

I also believe you're focusing too hard on the contract situation when the real issue for the Blazers is fit. We've all explained why Ford isn't a good fit in Portland... Seems like we've been explaining it for over a year now, it's just a new set of fans are trying to sell it. I've also gone deep into why I believe Foster is a poor fit. As for Dunleavy, he'd definitely have the best chance of fitting in out of all 3 guys, but his defense would be a pretty big issue for the Blazers. They're a bad enough perimeter defensive team as it is and Dunleavy isn't gonna help that. He would fit in nicely on the offensive end of the floor. I'm still not convinced that his 19ppg is really something we're gonna see on a consistent basis from him though, I'd put money on it that he wouldn't put up those kinds of numbers in Portland. He was a #2 option for the Pacers last year, so when you get that kind of load offensively, you're numbers are gonna be solid. That's not a knock on him, just a simply fact. It's true for any player. He definitely wouldn't be a #2 option in Portland.

[Spykes]

to bad porland doesnt have any cap space anymore Miles wasnt half bad tonight vs the cavs.

Too bad someone decided to sleep during English class instead of actually pay attention. It's also too bad this has absolutely nothing to do with this thread. And it's also too bad you're wrong, Portland will have cap space even with Miles.

Seriously people, if you're going to troll, at least give the slight effort... That's all I ask.

[chatard5]

I don't really like it for the Pacers. Sure, we save a little money, but why would Boozer want to come to Indy over another team with max money? Dunleavy has been great for us and doesn't have a "bad contract" anymore in my opinion. We are trading 3 starters for some bench players when we already have enough depth. This draft is not deep at all, either, and it's not like Portland will have a good draft pick.

[DanTown8587]

Portland will have cap space, but its kinda a year too early to have it. I wouldn't be at all surprised that if Portland made no moves they look to add talent via a trade and pick up the options on Blake and Outlaw. I still expect Frye, Diogu renounced but I think Portland looks to cash in on a team saving 10-12 million in a trade and the Blazers take advantage.

As for the deal, the Blazers somehow get two starters for none of theirs. I understand Portland has assets, but the best piece going back to Indy is what...Webster/Outlaw? I think Indy passes because they give up guys they could get expiring deals for and are much worse off.