BOS - MIN

[shrink]

I was looking at another one of your threads that suggested the idea of:

Giddens + O'Bryant + Cassell for McCants

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=871147&p=18286707#p18286707

.. but most BOS fans don't think its enough. I tend to agree, particularly since this deal requires MIN to cut two players to create roster spots for the deal. This is particularly painful since we only have one guy to cut (Booth), but Taylor doesn't even want to do that, since PHI pays 100% of his contract. And Wolves owner Glen Taylor isn't going to sign any piece of paper with Cassell's name on it.

BOS is certainly hurting for some bench depth this year, and I've been giving you guys a lot of thought since I saw a desperate Celtics fan on the Trade Board wonder how much you could get for Rondo. I can't imagine he'd ever be traded, but neither will we see a trade of the Big Three coming off a championship. Unfortunately, this year, BOS doesn't have players like Posey, PJ Brown and a healthier Cassell to back them up, and you don't have much in the way of trade assets to fill these needs..

I poured over your potential assets (D-League, but good prospects, Giddens, Bill Walker, and the other players from the "Little 11"), and didn't see much to work with. The contracts are tiny, but the players you need have bigger contracts to salary match. However, you do have a 2010 pick. The general chorus is "it can't be traded!" and that's right -- almost.

However, here's some "out-of-the-box" thinking: It can be traded to one team .. MIN .. if they send back their 2009 pick. The 2010 has more value with the added uncertainy and age of the Big Three, and best of all, MIN doesn't have any pressing need to cash a 2009 BOS pick as well. Here's my offer to try to cobble together value:

BOS GETS: McCants + Ollie (vet min) + BOS 2009 1st

MIN GETS: Giddens + Bill Walker + O'Bryant + BOS 2010 1st

FOR BOS: You get some bench help they desperately need, in exchange for future assets that won't help them now. McCants has great upside, and you're buying him at his cheapest. Being reunited with KG may help him, particularly on a team like yours. However, I think Kevin Ollie might be even more valuable. Its probably gone unnoticed that he's played his way into the starting PG spot on the team, and while his numbers aren't spectacular, he provides a vet presence that helps MIN. However, he's more valuable to you because of that, his play-off experience, and knowing how to get the ball to a superstar in the right situation. His vet-min deal doesn't have to salary match either. You also get your 2009 pick back, but a deal with MIN allows you to find value in the pick swap (2009/2010). Finally, you create a roster spot to add a vet-min player (PF/C) looking for a ring.

FOR MIN: MIN may lose more games without Ollie and McCants, but they get assets for the future. Giddens and Walker may even get a chance to get out of the D-League on MIN's rebuilding team. POB would be happy for an audition at home. Delaying BOS pick a year, and seeing it possibly increase in value, is the main component for the Wolves.

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

No thanks. Kevin Ollie can't guard centers or Lebron James. If the Cs are going to part with 3 young prospects, I'm thinking Ainge would hope he'd be getting back at least another big man, or a small forward.

[greenbeans]

Definitely like the thinking, however as I'm sure you'll get a chorus of, we'd prefer to switch Walker with one of Pruitt or Big Baby.
Kevin Ollie is definitely an under the radar guy who would be solid off the bench with the minutes we're currently giving Pruitt, though I'm not sure he's that much of an upgrade.
Also, if we were to get McCants Tony Allen is pretty much obsolete, so maybe this could be part of a bigger deal where we ship out the returned 1st and Tony for big man x?
Thanks for thinking of us!

[shrink]

I think you get your big man as a vet FA with the roster spot this creates.

This may be a stupid question, but do you guys value Bill Walker over Giddens? They are both prospects in the 30-40 range to me, but I haven't followed their progress.

[Bad-Thoma]

Certainly more realistic than most ideas we see around here, though I personally wouldn't pull the trigger, I think Giddens is going to surprise some people around here and Bill Walker has some real potential. POB hasn't shown much so far, but he is young and 7', and we just don't have enough length as it is.

[shrink]

A couple things:

1. Its the salary matching that's the problem here. McCants and Ollie help a deal run because they are low salary, McCants because he's still on the rookie deal, and Ollie because he can be included for free as a vet min player.

2. You might consider this as part of a 3-teamer as well, to give you access to other assets to make a deal flow, or create additional cap-matching space.

3. I'm not tied into POB, or Giddens, or Bill Walker. What I'm looking to do is to move "win now" assets onto your team, while you have a shot at another ring, and "win later" prospects onto MIN. I feel we both have to go after our differing goals whole-heartedly to have the best chance of success. However, that doesn't mean there might not be better ways of achieving those goals with trade with other teams.

4. Finally, in my Trade Theory, the basis for a good trade is to create enough additional value that both teams benefit. In this one, it has to overcome the swap of the 2009 pick for 2010, where the 2010 is more valuable to both teams. However, the basis here is that all the rest of these players have more value on the other team:

McCants: Better with BOS - Needs a new start, reunites with KG, win now
Ollie: Better with BOS - Veteran skills, no mistakes, play-off experience with superstar

Walker/Giddens/POB: Better with MIN - MIN isn't win now, has time to let them develop, can afford it if they fail.

[shrink]

Definitely like the thinking, however as I'm sure you'll get a chorus of, we'd prefer to switch Walker with one of Pruitt or Big Baby.
Kevin Ollie is definitely an under the radar guy who would be solid off the bench with the minutes we're currently giving Pruitt, though I'm not sure he's that much of an upgrade.
Also, if we were to get McCants Tony Allen is pretty much obsolete, so maybe this could be part of a bigger deal where we ship out the returned 1st and Tony for big man x?
Thanks for thinking of us!

I avoided Pruitt because it goes in the wrong direction for MIN. Even if neither Ollie or McCants could play a lick, they'd still be expirings, and MIN has a legit chance to be under the 2009 cap, particularly if they trade Miller. I left Big Baby alone because I figured you needed the size. My goal was to pick players that I thought you had the least immediate use for, to create value. Walker adds a little value, but I don't think you risk a better chance at a ring on the hope your second rounder develops.

The other thing I like about Ollie is that he's the type of vet min player you'd pick up if you had the roster space. He's probably better, because he's in game shape right now (well, he's out a week for injury), and I think he'd be a great investment mentoring Rondo.

No problem trading Tony Allen elsewhere (2-year deal is a no-no to MIN), but the Stepania rule would keep you from including the 2009 pick. If you could get an expiring for him, even an unproductive expiring, then you'd create a great deal more flexibility for salary-matching with MIN, so I think a three-teamer would be a really smart move. Has anyone expressed interest in him?

[Prophet_C]

I think you get your big man as a vet FA with the roster spot this creates.

This may be a stupid question, but do you guys value Bill Walker over Giddens? They are both prospects in the 30-40 range to me, but I haven't followed their progress.

I think 90% of us do. He's my new binky.

[ParticleMan]

i'm one of the 10% who likes Giddens. the C's have traditionally showcased players they like to trade in non-critical situations. the fact that BB and now Walker are getting big PT suggests that they are both on the block over say Powe and Giddens.

the main thing with Giddens is that he can create his own shot. Walker is really more of a scrapper. Giddens is TA with a solid midrange game. Walker's main advantage is height and size, but the size difference is only 1 inch. People have argued that Walker can defend Lebron better, but let me tell you if we're relying on a young scrub like Walker to defend Bron, we are already in BIG trouble. That's not the goal here, the goal is to think who will be the better player long-term. I like Giddens over Walker as a player period, not to mention the injury history.

[avi623]

I like the thinking because this is actually fair for both teams, so it is worth discussing. However, McCants probably doesn't really help this team.

I talked about this in another thread, but this is really a lateral move for the Celtics. We give up guys who are not playing for us to get guys who probably would not get a lot of burn while they were here. Ollie provides D, but at this stage of his career he would essentially be a Cassell type on a good team. Translation: he is a good locker room guy and more of an assistant coach. McCants doesn't pass the ball and doesn't play D. He has struggled this year too, although he put up decent numbers last year. Finally, he is only getting 20 min a game for a bad team. I am not sure he would get run (at least intially) on this team.

The Celtics give up too much here, though. Walker's ceiling is too high to give him up for someone who is NOT a proven vet. If you replaced him with TA I would be more satisfied. I think it would be premature to give up either Giddens or Walker for a "prospect" until we see what they can do against NBA competition.

[shrink]

Tony Allen's two-year deal would be a deal-breaker for MIN. They already have to buy out the free Booth, but TA cuts into 2009 cap space. I think you're under-estimating Ollie, but I can't blame you .. I did the same thing when we signed him. He became our starting PG in December.

http://www.nba.com/playerfile/kevin_oll ... stats.html

I guess the other thing player to bring up is Craig Smith instead of McCants.

He's showed that he pairs well with KG on offense so he'd help right away, and KG covers for his size since he's good help defender. He's certainly no center though. He's got great strength and phenomenal quickness to get his shot off over anyone, but bigger PF's are a problem. He developed a new move this summer dribbling in from the top-of-the-key. Reminds me of Anthony Mason, for some of you old-schoolers.

He'd be some big man help, but you'd still need to use that free roster slot on a back-up center, IMHO. Smith's on a beautiful contract .. $2.5 mil, $2.3 mil. He's expendable for MIN because we don't have the good defender to put behind him, so we can only play him in the right match-ups.

[avi623]

I guess the other thing player to bring up is Craig Smith instead of McCants.

I didn't know the goal was to corner the market on undersized power forwards

[sully00]

Walker is not option in trade the Celts are going to let that one grow into what it will be.

I am not attached to Giddens I think he was simply drafted to be Tony Allen insurance, his contract is twice as much money as Walker's and when you are paying everyone double it is significant.

Just don't really care for how the MINN players fit into what Boston is doing. I like Pruitt more than Ollie, Craig Smith is not going to do more for this squad than Baby or Powe. While McCants is a sweet shooter I have never been a fan of the rest of his game.

In reality Boston needs a 6'10" scorer forward to match up with Lamar Odom and maybe a take turn getting run over by the LeBron express. The whole Antonio McDyess thing is just killing me right about now.

[GopherIt!]

Smith and Powe are close but yet different. I think you guys are underestimating Smith. He's truly a beast in the paint.

[Banks2Pierce]

First of all, I like your thinking, but I just feel that Danny values his draft picks very high. He thinks Walker and Giddens are a lot better than the minutes that they are not playing. He takes his scouting very seriously, and I doubt he'd be willing to part with both of those guys so soon after they were drafted. I might seem like a homer saying this, but Bill Walker or Giddens will probably be a better contributor this season than McCants could be. Doc just has a thing with rookies where he doesn't like to throw them into the fire right away, and I can't say whether I agree or disagree with this. He will ease them into the rotation, putting them into positions where their failures could only be seen as minimal.

Haven't seen a lot of McCants, but what I have seen in him is that he is not so great off of the ball on offense and is a so-so defender. He can fill it up some nights, though, and our bench could use that help. I'd rather hold out for either Marbury to get bought out, or someone else to come along. Not too fond with parting with both of these wings.

[CelticFaninLBC]

Walker is not option in trade the Celts are going to let that one grow into what it will be.

I am not attached to Giddens I think he was simply drafted to be Tony Allen insurance, his contract is twice as much money as Walker's and when you are paying everyone double it is significant.

Just don't really care for how the MINN players fit into what Boston is doing. I like Pruitt more than Ollie, Craig Smith is not going to do more for this squad than Baby or Powe. While McCants is a sweet shooter I have never been a fan of the rest of his game.

In reality Boston needs a 6'10" scorer forward to match up with Lamar Odom and maybe a take turn getting run over by the LeBron express. The whole Antonio McDyess thing is just killing me right about now.

Agree about Gidden's and the need for a big to match up with Odom. I think Ainge will use Giddens to get a 6'10 big man.... Joe Smith's a possibility, as OKC can use a sg, but I think OKC will opt for Orlando's late first rounder..

In regard to TA, it seems he was kept around to help with guarding Kobe in the finals, as he's quicker and cheaper than Posey. Hopefully Ainge's gamble pays off. Boston could really use a shooter like Posey to spread the court. Maybe they'll make a run at Tim Thomas??

[stiles21]

I watch the T-Wolves when they play on celtics off nights and i dont likes this trade. i think Giddens and Walker might both end up better then McCants. Minnesota is 11 and 20 something and they don't even play McCants anymore. Ollie might not be a bad player to have but ( and this might not have anything to do with him) minny did go on a 5 game winning streak right after he went down with an injury.

[shrink]

Well, I think the question about the players is whether they will be better players this season. McCants has probably had 50 or so 20+ games .. he averaged 15 PPG off the bench last season. No matter how much you like Walker or Giddens, I can't imagine you'd expect that kind of offensive production out of them this season.

I have to say that I don't understand what McCants problem is. I know that Wittman used to jerk him out of the game after his first mistake. I know he got fans angry when he would miss, but his role was to provide offense. His defense is mediocre, but not because he doesn't hustle -- more because he overdoes it, and uses his hands too much. One thing that shouldn't be said about him is that he's lazy. When he had microfracture surgery, instead of getting flabby like most players do in rehab, he lived in the weight room and put on 25 pounds of chiseled muscle. As you can imagine, lazy guys don't become Kevin Garnett's best friend. But for whatever reason, he's not getting playing time. Maybe the Wolves want to check out Carney, who's done well recently?

Anyway, I'm kind of a singular thinker. Either you're playing for a title, or you're rebuilding. I can understand the position "We think we can get more for Giddens or Walker" than this .. but trying to rebuild/develop your youth when you have a chance at a ring with players in their 30's .. that's not a plan I would agree with. Then again, MIN is the team that traded Kevin Garnett, and I think fans of most teams like the deal for both sides. Maybe when BOS is past its window, MIN should adopt your game plan .. one star + trade lottery pick for another star + trade all the rest of the youth (save rondo) for a third star, and maybe its MIN's turn.

And for the record, MIN is the team trying to dominate the "under-sized PF" market, with Gomes, Smith, Cardinal and maybe Love. I agree with a previous poster that Smith = Powe, but different, but definitely Smith > other options. However, he's not a precise fit -- I was trying to provide options other than McCants. It might work better as a 3-teamer, if you could bring in something different with one of the MIN players who has more value. The thing is that MIN needs to be in the deal, because they are the only ones that you can add value from your side with a 2009 - 2010 pick swap.

[Avalanche]

on a lottery team like 'sota mccants doesnt really have a role.

On a team like this, he is ideal off the bench.... hes not always efficient but he can come on and provide instant offense, far more effectively than Tony Allen

However, if we traded for him.... as hes on the last year of his deal, would we have to cut into the MLE to re-sign him? thats why in the initial trade i came up with on the other thread i didnt want to give away a third prospect

I also would have thought MIN would have some interest in trying to develop Obryant

[shrink]

on a lottery team like 'sota mccants doesnt really have a role.

On a team like this, he is ideal off the bench.... hes not always efficient but he can come on and provide instant offense, far more effectively than Tony Allen

However, if we traded for him.... as hes on the last year of his deal, would we have to cut into the MLE to re-sign him? thats why in the initial trade i came up with on the other thread i didnt want to give away a third prospect

I also would have thought MIN would have some interest in trying to develop Obryant

Good point about protecting your 2009 MLE. You'd have Bird Rights on McCants, and he would be an RFA, so the future risk is minimal. If he plays badly, you don't have to offer him a full qualifying offer. If he takes off, you'd have the right to match anyone's offer without digging into your MLE.

As for POB, I suppose he's worth a look, but he's never shown anything that can't be found in free agency. If you think he's a better fit with you this season because of the hope he can use some of his height, you should keep him. POB's probably not the type of player to bust a deal either way.