POR-MIN Trade Idea

[Wizenheimer]

don't be harsh if you guys hate it...

Spykes mentioned he proposed something close but I didn't see it

Portland trades: Martell Webster, Channing Frye, & Raef Lafrentz

for

MiKe Miller, Brian Cardinal, & Kevin Ollie

why for the Wolves:

the Wolves would treat Frye the same as portland is...as an expiring contract.

In Webster, they 'keep' a athletic SF capable of spreading defenses with perimeter shooting, and at the same time, take a competitor out of the 2009 cap-space race, while freeing up over 11 million in cap-space for themselves. Fairly significant cap-space number.

Finally, Lafrentz's salary is now being mostly paid by insurance. That may not matter much to Wolves's fans, but a 5 million savings might make the Owner(s) happy

Why for portland:

they give up both Lafrentz's expiring (and the insurance savings) as well as this summer's cap-space. But they get a SF who'd fit well on their roster and also happens to add some veteran experience. They also line up 4 expiring contracts for next season, as well as a 3.5 million TPE.

[Tekkenlaw]

I'd do this in a second, Martell Webster is a guy with a ton of upside and Frye would ad some nice front court depth and may even start for us.

[southern wolf]

I think we could get more for Miller, especially since we're playing 'hardball' in any discussions. Although if our past 'hardball' in trade discussions is anything to go by, we probably won't get anything better for him.

[deeney0]

I have mixed feelings. Assume the contract situation after this trade is similar enough to the contract situation after a hypothetical trade with Cleveland. I like Webster better than a Cav's 1st. However, we're aiding a team in our division rather than a team in the East.

I'd probably pull the trigger in the end. I don't think Portland does it though.

[Krapinsky]

After the Miles fiasco I would be surprised to see Portland deal Lafrentz contract. Combined with Miles, that would mean adding $30 million plus in operating expenses next year (or so I'm guessing). That's a lot even for Paul Allen.

[4ho5ive]

I think we could get more for Miller, especially since we're playing 'hardball' in any discussions. Although if our past 'hardball' in trade discussions is anything to go by, we probably won't get anything better for him.

A good young prospect at SG, a small expiring that can provide solid minutes off the bench and a giant expiring that is covered by insurance (85% i think???).AND they take Cardinal

This is a fantastic deal (for us) and probably the best offer we will get for Miller this year.

[younggunsmn]

Look closer at the contracts, Portland extended webster for 4 years and 20 million beyond this year, and it's an escalating deal. Do you really want to make that commitment to a guy who has been injured and will have a hard time getting minutes there, and hasn't exactly lit things up so far? With Foye our SG of the present and future? I would not.

Frye is ok as an expiring.

The 3 reasonable assets I like on Portland are Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, and Batum, who are good young players, but players Portland could move and still keep a strong young nucleus.

Try this deal:
Miller (2yrs 19.75)
Cardinal (2 yrs 13.25)
Madsen (2yrs 5.47)
total salary: 38.47

For:
Lafrentz (1yr 12.72)
Pryzbilla (3 yrs 20.57)
Bayless (2 yrs 4.13 + 2 team options for total of 5.3 million)
total salary: 37.42 + team options)

We eat the vanilla gorilla's 7.4 million 2010 player option,
but open up 7.5 million in 2009 cap room.
Przybilla's defense fits perfectly here as 3rd big with Al and Love,
Bayless can be Point Guard of the future.

Miller can help put Portland over the top, and they open up 7.4 million in 2010 cap room when Roy and Aldridge will need to be re-signed.

Moving Bayless clears up Portland's point guard glut, the homegrown przybilla is a much better fit for us than cardinal, and it allows them to use more minutes to develop frye and oden.

It makes the Mayo trade
Mayo (3), Jaric, Madsen, expirings
for
Love (5), Bayless (11), Przybilla, exprings

Which to me is better than the original deal.

I actually think this one benefits both teams both short term and long term.

[shrink]

I think its a very fair deal, and that's saying a lot compared to several of the other offers I see for Mike Miller. I think the CLE deal is the yardstick (some variation of Miller + Cardinal for Szcerbiak + 1st), and I think this is a comparable offer.

However, it would need to be slightly modified. MIN can't give out a $3.5 mil TPE without going into the the lux themselves, so you're probably talking about holding back Webster (and including a protected 1st) or holding out Channing Frye, and MIN holds back Ollie for your roster consideration. If you want Ollie (and he played well for us before he got hurt), its not a problem to include him .. you'd just have to find the roster spot.

I think Channing Frye has a little value .. just not with POR or MIN. Maybe a third team would help?

Very fair deal. Nice job.

[C.lupus]

Try this deal:
Miller (2yrs 19.75)
Cardinal (2 yrs 13.25)
Madsen (2yrs 5.47)
total salary: 38.47

For:
Lafrentz (1yr 12.72)
Pryzbilla (3 yrs 20.57)
Bayless (2 yrs 4.13 + 2 team options for total of 5.3 million)
total salary: 37.42 + team options)

I'd do that in a heartbeat. I can't imagine Portland even considering it, though. They seem pretty high on Bayless and they like Pryz as Oden's backup (and I don't blame them on either count).

And according to Shamsports, Webster's deal is straight $5 million per season with a team option in the final year.

[hijacktheparade]

The 3 reasonable assets I like on Portland are Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, and Batum, who are good young players, but players Portland could move and still keep a strong young nucleus.

I don't see Portland moving Bayless or Rudy. Batum's minutes will probably dwindle when Webster returns from injury... I wonder if he'd be available then. I adore him.

[shrink]

Pryz would fit here, but POR needs to keep him backing up the young Greg Oden.

Considering Pryz salary and the length of his contract, I think he has less value than Bayless, but if they had to choose between the two right now, I think Pryz is a far less replaceable piece for POR, and I don't think we'll be seeing them trading him.

[shrink]

Would spinning Frye through Memphis work in this deal?

POR GIVES: LaFrentz, Webster, Frye, Sergio
POR GETS: Mike Miller, Cardinal, Ollie, Mike Conley

MIN GIVE: Miller, Cardinal, Ollie, BOS 1st
MIN GETS: LaFrentz, Webster, Sergio

MEM GIVES: Mike Conley
MEM GETS: Frye, BOS 1st

I could see MEM trying out Frye as a starter and they certainly wouldn't mind a pick. MIN wouldn't have a place for Frye anyway, but Sergio would get a good look, and they don't need the pick. POR swaps Sergio for Conley, reuniting him with Greg Oden.

[Devilzsidewalk]

Outlaw/Frye/Lafrentz
for
Miller/Collins/Cardinal

get a cheaper replacement for Miller and expirings. Frye might even be a good fit too.

[john2jer]

Try this deal:
Miller (2yrs 19.75)
Cardinal (2 yrs 13.25)
Madsen (2yrs 5.47)
total salary: 38.47

For:
Lafrentz (1yr 12.72)
Pryzbilla (3 yrs 20.57)
Bayless (2 yrs 4.13 + 2 team options for total of 5.3 million)
total salary: 37.42 + team options)

That would be the greatest trade in the history of the Wolves. We'd get our 7 foot shot blocking rebounder in the middle, roughly 8 mil in cap savings, and a prospect at the point. No chance in hell that Portland does it though.

[Wizenheimer]

Try this deal:
Miller (2yrs 19.75)
Cardinal (2 yrs 13.25)
Madsen (2yrs 5.47)
total salary: 38.47

For:
Lafrentz (1yr 12.72)
Pryzbilla (3 yrs 20.57)
Bayless (2 yrs 4.13 + 2 team options for total of 5.3 million)
total salary: 37.42 + team options)

We eat the vanilla gorilla's 7.4 million 2010 player option,
but open up 7.5 million in 2009 cap room.
Przybilla's defense fits perfectly here as 3rd big with Al and Love,
Bayless can be Point Guard of the future.

.

I can understand why a Wolves fan would like that trade, but there's no way portland does that. Bayless has show plenty of signs of being a real good player, and Pryzbilla is integral right now to Portland's success. He's a very underrated center.

This trade recognizes the positive value of creating cap-space for Min., but fails to recognize that the inverse...a team taking on the salary to create that cap-space...has negative trade value to that team. Miller's talent is the price fro taking on his contract and that of Cardinal's. Minnesota can't realistically expect much more then a decent player in exchange, and Webster is that. Frye can be useful as well.

However, it would need to be slightly modified. MIN can't give out a $3.5 mil TPE without going into the the lux themselves, so you're probably talking about holding back Webster (and including a protected 1st) or holding out Channing Frye, and MIN holds back Ollie for your roster consideration. If you want Ollie (and he played well for us before he got hurt), its not a problem to include him .. you'd just have to find the roster spot.

I think Channing Frye has a little value .. just not with POR or MIN. Maybe a third team would help?

Very fair deal. Nice job.

I'd consider that TPE an important component of the trade from Portland's perspective. Since this is all make-believe, the Blazers can add 3 million cash to the deal to solve that tax issue. In the real world, even somebody as rich as paul allen would likely balk at that, especially considering the tax issues for portland created by this trade. But I don't mind SPAM (spending paul allen's money)

However, I should also point out that the 5.4 million 'insurance bonus' on Lafrentz's contract would more the offset any tax hit.

Would spinning Frye through Memphis work in this deal?

POR GIVES: LaFrentz, Webster, Frye, Sergio
POR GETS: Mike Miller, Cardinal, Ollie, Mike Conley

MIN GIVE: Miller, Cardinal, Ollie, BOS 1st
MIN GETS: LaFrentz, Webster, Sergio

MEM GIVES: Mike Conley
MEM GETS: Frye, BOS 1st

I could see MEM trying out Frye as a starter and they certainly wouldn't mind a pick. MIN wouldn't have a place for Frye anyway, but Sergio would get a good look, and they don't need the pick. POR swaps Sergio for Conley, reuniting him with Greg Oden.

that's a good try, but I think Memphis would want more for Conley then that. And IMO, Conley is pretty overrated, especially for what he'd bring to portland. I don't think the Blazers would do this deal. They like the chemistry that Sergio and Rudy have, as well as how Sergio interacts with other teammates, and would view Sergio as at least as good as Conley...and much less expensive. This would eliminate the TPE that portland would get in the original deal. While that isn't a deal-killer, eliminating it for no clear roster upgrade (sergio/conley), adding over 8 million is salary and tax costs (2 year differnce of sergio/conley), and the possible disruption of chemistry would kill this deal from portland's end.

Outlaw/Frye/Lafrentz
for
Miller/Collins/Cardinal

get a cheaper replacement for Miller and expirings. Frye might even be a good fit too.

No from portland for multiple reasons.

For one thing, Outlaw is the backup PF, with Frye as the 2nd backup. This would leave portland with really, only Aldridge as PF. (Diogu just isn't worth counting). Portland can't afford to do that.

For another thing, that would create a glut of SF's on portland's roster at the same time as leaving them with one PF. It wouldn't make roster sense, and with this trade eliminating portland's cap-space this summer, their options for finding a backup PF would be reduced. And it's unlikely they'd find one during this season, which would hurt their playoff chances.

Finally, Outlaw's contract is better then Webster's, but Minnesota can't realistically expect to get every financial aspect of a trade to break their way. Miller is a good player but he does have a big contract. Cardinal just has his contract.

Minnesota would get an extra 11 million in cap-space with this trade, They'd also get an athletic young SF with a good 3pt shot locked into a contract that's 25% less then MLE level.

If pure cap-space was the goal, then the Cleveland trade would probably be better. However, I'd bet that the 5.4 million dollars in savings because of the insurance on Lafrentz would be fairly persuasive for Minny's FO.

[Devilzsidewalk]

what if MN "threw" in the ubiquitous Craig Smith

[B Calrissian]

The 3 reasonable assets I like on Portland are Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, and Batum, who are good young players, but players Portland could move and still keep a strong young nucleus.

I don't see Portland moving Bayless or Rudy. Batum's minutes will probably dwindle when Webster returns from injury... I wonder if he'd be available then. I adore him.

Yeah I would rather have Batum over Outlaw or Webster.
Batum/LaFrentz/Diogu for Miller/Cardinal would be my ideal Miller to the Blazers trade. I would add Collins in place of Cardinal if needed.

[mg]

I think it's a fair deal but I prefer not to have Webster included.

IMO our country including this League is headed into a Depression (yes, I said the D word). I would not take on Webster's contract at this point. Minnesota needs expirings now. The players are in for a rude awakening beginning this summer. Some of these guys will be signing for nickels on the dollar compared to their presently perceived value. The ongoing crash in real estate and Wall Street bonuses is nothing compared to what will happen to NBA salaries. In a few years multi year guaranteed contracts could be a thing of the past except for the cream of the crop franchise players.

Any trade that unloads contracts that run past 09 and bring back huge expirings like LaFrentz or Wally is a positive at this point. The buyers market begins this offseason.

[Wizenheimer]

what if MN "threw" in the ubiquitous Craig Smith

in the deal I proposed, the Blazers would likely cut & waive Ollie before he 'arrived'. He was just filler.

Smith is above Ollie's class, talent-wise, but he wouldn't really offer portland much more then they already have with Diogu

However, Smith has a 2 year deal and is BYC as well. The BYC wouldn't matter. What would matter is the 5 million smith is owed for his contract. This trade would put Portland over the Luxury tax that much further, and at the same time cut Portland's 3.5 million TPE in half, making it rather insignificant, Smith just isn't worth that to Portland.

Overall, this deal has some significant negative financial components for portland. Anything that dilutes positive components threatens the deal from portland's end.

[Spykes]

For the sake of this discussion, there are a number of players Minnesota should consider "off-limits" in any deal where Miller is the best player Portland gets back. Outside of the obvious, guys like Rudy, Bayless and Batum are all in that category. You won't find a single fan on here willing to give those guys up for Miller. While I think Miller could help to Portland, he's likely just a short-term answer for the Blazers. They aren't gonna give up any prospects that they're extremely high on to get him. Batum in particular is considered the future at SF for Portland. He's starting a bit too soon right now, but once he refines the skillsets that he's already displayed he has, he'll be the perfect SF for the Blazers. It's not going over the top to call him a potential Tayshaun Prince clone.

As for guys like Przybilla and Travis, they'll be extremely hard (if not impossible) for the Wolves to get in a Miller trade. Przybilla in particular has already been discussed as to why he's too important for Portland to give up. Travis, you'll find mixed reactions on, but I agree completely with Wizen's explanation. He's our backup 4 and main goto scoring option off-the-bench. I personally believe he means a TON to this team, but some Blazer fans can't get over the wild shot attempts he occasionally takes and are willing to give him up for a bag of stale chips. If Portland were to move Outlaw for Miller and keep Webster, it creates a massive logjam at SF, thins out our PF spot and really hurts the effectiveness of our 2nd unit. Adding in a guy like Craig Smith helps even out the PF spot some, but we still have the other 2 problems.

So from Portland's POV, the only players I'd make available in a Miller deal are Martell, Raef's contract, Frye and Diogu.

I think it's a fair deal but I prefer not to have Webster included.

IMO our country including this League is headed into a Depression (yes, I said the D word). I would not take on Webster's contract at this point. Minnesota needs expirings now. The players are in for a rude awakening beginning this summer. Some of these guys will be signing for nickels on the dollar compared to their presently perceived value. The ongoing crash in real estate and Wall Street bonuses is nothing compared to what will happen to NBA salaries. In a few years multi year guaranteed contracts could be a thing of the past except for the cream of the crop franchise players.

Any trade that unloads contracts that run past 09 and bring back huge expirings like LaFrentz or Wally is a positive at this point. The buyers market begins this offseason.

Miller and Cardinal for LaFrentz and Frye works. I suppose Portland might even be willing to add in a 2009 or 2010 first round pick (with lottery protection of course).

The Blazers would still have to find a taker for Webster, or they could just sit him out for the season so he can fully heal that foot injury. Either way, I'm sure they wouldn't be upset not having to give up a young player with Martell's potential to a division rival.