POR-MIN Trade Idea

[shrink]

This trade recognizes the positive value of creating cap-space for Min., but fails to recognize that the inverse...a team taking on the salary to create that cap-space...has negative trade value to that team. Miller's talent is the price for taking on his contract and that of Cardinal's. Minnesota can't realistically expect much more then a decent player in exchange, and Webster is that. Frye can be useful as well.

Breaking it down:

In 2008-09, Does POR put more talent on the floor than they give up? In 08'-09, that's a win for POR.

In 2009-10, Is Mike Miller + Cardinal's expiring worth more than just having the cap space? Cardinal's expiring obviously has value, as does an expiring Mike Miller. Is that a plus over just taking the money off the books? I'd say that's a qualified "yes" for POR as well, since they want the production to create wins on the floor, and Cardinal's expiring can obviously bring a productive player.

In a two-year deal, there really isn't a lot of down-side for taking on Cardinal's contract.

I also do not see Frye as being useful in MIN. I don't think he can play center next to Al, and we're a little loaded at PF, with Al, Love, Smith and Gomes

[shrink]

However, it would need to be slightly modified. MIN can't give out a $3.5 mil TPE without going into the the lux themselves, so you're probably talking about holding back Webster (and including a protected 1st) or holding out Channing Frye, and MIN holds back Ollie for your roster consideration.

I'd consider that TPE an important component of the trade from Portland's perspective. Since this is all make-believe, the Blazers can add 3 million cash to the deal to solve that tax issue. In the real world, even somebody as rich as paul allen would likely balk at that, especially considering the tax issues for portland created by this trade. But I don't mind SPAM (spending paul allen's money)

However, I should also point out that the 5.4 million 'insurance bonus' on Lafrentz's contract would more the offset any tax hit.

I hear what you're saying, and I'm a big fan of TPE's, but I can't see a deal improving when one team goes into the lux to give another team a TPE. Its just a value-suck aspect that needs to be worked around.

[shrink]

The more I think about this deal, the more I think MIN should just go with the simple CLE deal.

Comparing the two:

Mike Miller + Cardinal for Wally + 1st

1. MIN adds Webster. Do the Wolves really want him? I'm not saying his deal is unfair at

2008-09 3,771,133
2009-10 4,319,654
2010-11 4,773,218
2011-12 5,226,782

.. and I don't think its too painful to pay the remaining $2 mil on a player that will produce nothing. However, the extra money bites us in 2009 when we want max room for free agency, and worse, has 2010 and 2011 salary.

2. Frye or CLE 1st? I don't think we need either, but I'll take CLE's pick because it carries value for 2009.

3. In the CLE deal, MIN gets a TPE. In the POR deal, MIN goes into the lux to give a $3.5 mil TPE to POR.

4. A popular Wally that can play a little this year (and Taylor can sell to the fans) > LaFrentz who can't, and Taylor can't. Now, in its defense, Taylor might like the deal because of the insurance component, but I have to say, Frye and Webster.

If I was to rank the options:

1. Trade Miller to CLE (and I realize I'm still in the minority)
2. Keep Miller + Cardinal until Summer, and keep or trade when their value is higher
3. Trade Miller to POR

There is just nothing here (reduced cap space, no cheap prospect/pick, and lux TPE problems, to hang your hat on. The offer is well-thought out, and better than most, but I'd have to say "no" without some different incentive.

[shrink]

Miller and Cardinal for LaFrentz and Frye works. I suppose Portland might even be willing to add in a 2009 or 2010 first round pick (with lottery protection of course).

I think this makes the most sense. Yeah its boring, but it maximizes what each team is trying to do (trade cap space now for talent in 2009, 2010).

If POR wants to keep the pick, MIN certainly has plenty, so maybe a third player could be added to either side where POR provides a prospect and MIN provides someone more productive now and "returns" the POR 1st.

One last comment .. remember if POR offers a deal that only matches CLE, MIN's going to deal Miller to the Eastern Conference Cavs.

[john2jer]

Miller+Cardinal for Wally+1st+Kinsey I'd do no problem. I don't like Wally, but I think the cap space is more valuable than Miller at this point. Telfair, Foye, and Love are playing great. If we could make that a 2010 first instead of 2009, I'd be even happier. Saves us a couple bucks on 2009's cap, plus we don't have the roster spot for another guaranteed contract. Plus, assuming Miller makes them even better, I think we'd at the very worst be even money on the 2010 pick being a better pick than 2009, but then we pray for a LeBron ACL tear and end up with a lottery pick.

I'll call my witch doctor.

[Wizenheimer]

I hear what you're saying, and I'm a big fan of TPE's, but I can't see a deal improving when one team goes into the lux to give another team a TPE. Its just a value-suck aspect that needs to be worked around.

ok then, I see your point.

If you're a big fan of TPE's then here's an idea:

Blazers trade Lafrentz and their highest 2nd round pick for Miller, Cardinal, and Kevin Ollie.

The Wolves save around 9 million in salary this season with smaller salary and insurance, free up over 15 million in cap space for this summer, gain a 2nd round pick, AND get a 3.4 million TPE of their own.

Because portland would be taking on over 20 million in extra salary and tax obligations, they wouldn't be shipping out a 1st round pick in this deal. A 1st would impact Minny's cap-space anyway.

I added Ollie, because he'd count as a minimum salary exception & the trade exception could be bumped higher. Portland would cut and waive Ollie and Randolph

[horaceworthy]

That's still taking 2 members of our rotation and giving us little other than savings in return. The Wolves are just starting to build back some goodwill with the fans again, due to the recent stretch of solid play, that, for the sake of appearances, they couldn't make a deal like this. Even though Miller isn't starting and Cardinal's nothing special as the 4th big man, they've still played a role in this recent stretch of decency. My guess is that the front office sees developing the younger Wolves as part of a stable rotation and getting rid of the venomous atmosphere that hung around here in year's past by trying to instill a winning mentality that's been lacking recently as more important than cap savings. Cardinal and Miller have played a role in making a step towards doing that, which lead me to think that they'd want at least one player that can contribute in return, not cap savings and a 2nd rounder.

The FO seems to have put their expectations for a potential Miller trade out there, which is a young player and a pick. Cap savings are nice, but I think they view Miller as being worth more, and that they're patient enough to wait and see if he can snap out of this shooting slump and prove it.

[john2jer]

I hear what you're saying, and I'm a big fan of TPE's, but I can't see a deal improving when one team goes into the lux to give another team a TPE. Its just a value-suck aspect that needs to be worked around.

ok then, I see your point.

If you're a big fan of TPE's then here's an idea:

Blazers trade Lafrentz and their highest 2nd round pick for Miller, Cardinal, and Kevin Ollie.

The Wolves save around 9 million in salary this season with smaller salary and insurance, free up over 15 million in cap space for this summer, gain a 2nd round pick, AND get a 3.4 million TPE of their own.

Because portland would be taking on over 20 million in extra salary and tax obligations, they wouldn't be shipping out a 1st round pick in this deal. A 1st would impact Minny's cap-space anyway.

I added Ollie, because he'd count as a minimum salary exception & the trade exception could be bumped higher. Portland would cut and waive Ollie and Randolph

I'm just fine with giving up on this season. Not meaning we start tanking, I just have no problem with us playing guys who are our future, and am not as desperate to get back playable players, but I know that would upset fans just getting an injury insurance player. I'd want to re-sign Ollie after the 30 days if we could, although I'm sure there'd be other teams looking to pick him up.

This saves Taylor more money, and hopefully that inspires him to spend more the next couple off-seasons. I'm sure he'd like that.

We already have a couple TPE's and have we used one recently? I think we did once, or am I wrong there?

The trade Wizen's suggesting is a 3 for 1, does Portland currently have 2 roster spots open, or are you going to cut two guys before the trade? You can't cut received players after the trade to get under 15 anymore.

So in interest of clearing all of our 2 year contracts and keeping with roster limits, and getting some playable value for the Wolves, why don't we go with...

FIX: LaFrentz, Frye, and Diogu for Miller, Cardinal, Madsen, and Ollie?

The dollars for this year work out to almost exactly even, so no one hits the luxury tax. Plus that clear 2.8mil more for the Wolves in 2009 and they get a 3 month look at Channing Frye. Diogu isn't doing anything in Portland and he wants minutes. He might get a couple more in Minnesota. Huge dollars savigns for Glen Taylor, even more cap savings in 2009, plus we get a player who'd be able to put on a Wolves jersey, and no one has to worry about luxury tax dollars, or more spent this year.

If I'm Wolves ownership, and hopefully because of that as a fan in the future, I'd prefer this to the Cleveland deal. It assumes the monster savings for Taylor means more spent in the future. Plus Portland NEEDS Madsen's dance skillz.

[shrink]

I hear what you're saying, and I'm a big fan of TPE's, but I can't see a deal improving when one team goes into the lux to give another team a TPE. Its just a value-suck aspect that needs to be worked around.

ok then, I see your point.

If you're a big fan of TPE's then here's an idea:

Blazers trade Lafrentz and their highest 2nd round pick for Miller, Cardinal, and Kevin Ollie.

I like that better myself, but it doesn't match the CLE offer.

Since you guys are over the lux, what this deal needs is a third team with a little cap room, like a NJN. The TPE MIN can provide is small, but the Nets could give you a bigger one that would save you more money.

[shrink]

Even though Miller isn't starting and Cardinal's nothing special as the 4th big man, they've still played a role in this recent stretch of decency.

I had a recent stretch of decency myself, but I traded it away for money, and I hope the Wolves do the same!

Seriously though, nice post horaceworthy. Spinning the turnstyles is going to be an important factor in Taylor's decision, and while more sophisticated RealGM people may see the value of cap space, it clearly removes the popular and talented Miller, and he'd take a hit with the media and fans if he did a deal for money.

[shrink]

I think Przybilla is out of bounds. They would be doing a Miller deal to help them win now and in 2009-10, and Pryzbilla is important to that. I think he's more on a previous poster's list of untouchables than a promising young prospect would be.

[john2jer]

I think Przybilla is out of bounds. They would be doing a Miller deal to help them win now and in 2009-10, and Pryzbilla is important to that. I think he's more on a previous poster's list of untouchables than a promising young prospect would be.

WHOOPS! Sorry, I was thinking LaFrentz, I talked about LaFrentz, but for some reason in the trade I typed Przybilla. I think I was just happy I remembered where the Z went in his name and forgot what I meant to put. the trade doesn't work with Joel P anyways, but it does with Raef. Raef is what I meant.

[younggunsmn]

For the sake of this discussion, there are a number of players Minnesota should consider "off-limits" in any deal where Miller is the best player Portland gets back. Outside of the obvious, guys like Rudy, Bayless and Batum are all in that category. You won't find a single fan on here willing to give those guys up for Miller. While I think Miller could help to Portland, he's likely just a short-term answer for the Blazers. They aren't gonna give up any prospects that they're extremely high on to get him. Batum in particular is considered the future at SF for Portland. He's starting a bit too soon right now, but once he refines the skillsets that he's already displayed he has, he'll be the perfect SF for the Blazers. It's not going over the top to call him a potential Tayshaun Prince clone.

As for guys like Przybilla and Travis, they'll be extremely hard (if not impossible) for the Wolves to get in a Miller trade. Przybilla in particular has already been discussed as to why he's too important for Portland to give up. Travis, you'll find mixed reactions on, but I agree completely with Wizen's explanation. He's our backup 4 and main goto scoring option off-the-bench. I personally believe he means a TON to this team, but some Blazer fans can't get over the wild shot attempts he occasionally takes and are willing to give him up for a bag of stale chips. If Portland were to move Outlaw for Miller and keep Webster, it creates a massive logjam at SF, thins out our PF spot and really hurts the effectiveness of our 2nd unit. Adding in a guy like Craig Smith helps even out the PF spot some, but we still have the other 2 problems.

So from Portland's POV, the only players I'd make available in a Miller deal are Martell, Raef's contract, Frye and Diogu.

I think it's a fair deal but I prefer not to have Webster included.

IMO our country including this League is headed into a Depression (yes, I said the D word). I would not take on Webster's contract at this point. Minnesota needs expirings now. The players are in for a rude awakening beginning this summer. Some of these guys will be signing for nickels on the dollar compared to their presently perceived value. The ongoing crash in real estate and Wall Street bonuses is nothing compared to what will happen to NBA salaries. In a few years multi year guaranteed contracts could be a thing of the past except for the cream of the crop franchise players.

Any trade that unloads contracts that run past 09 and bring back huge expirings like LaFrentz or Wally is a positive at this point. The buyers market begins this offseason.

Miller and Cardinal for LaFrentz and Frye works. I suppose Portland might even be willing to add in a 2009 or 2010 first round pick (with lottery protection of course).

The Blazers would still have to find a taker for Webster, or they could just sit him out for the season so he can fully heal that foot injury. Either way, I'm sure they wouldn't be upset not having to give up a young player with Martell's potential to a division rival.

At martell's current level of play he is a bad contract. We get the same or better production from Gomes and Carney for cheaper. And Foye is set at SG, so that leaves only 48 minutes to split between Gomes, Carney, and a healthy Brewer next year. I wouldn't want webster's deal if you offered him to us for cardinal straight up.

We aren't dealing Miller to a division rival for cap space. Taylor is a billionaire, he's been losing money on the team several years running now, and it has never stopped him from signing anyone or forced him into firesale mode.
Including Cardinal adds little to no value because he's more valuable to us as an expiring next year when everyone's in firesale mode for 2010 free agency.
If we wanted to move miller for expirings we could send him to cleveland or new jersey, but the front office doesn't want to move him now unless we get an especially nice piece for the future in return. Frye and Diogu do little for me.

If bayless, batum, and fernandez are off limits I don't see a fit between our two teams. I would be willing to sweeten it with one of our owed first rounders if the deal was right, but there is no way i would send miller to portland without getting one of those 3 guys included in return. Portland First Rounders thrown in add little value because they'll likely be in the low 20 range. Just like in other sports you ask for more when trading with a division rival, and though he's struggled a little Miller is still the best player in any of these prospective deals.

I underestimated Pryz's value to Portland, but as Oden gets better that value will dwindle and he will become just a bad contract.

I agree that adding miller without sending out a SF creates a logjam there, maybe a 3rd team could be involved to move webster for value. Maybe Oklahoma City.

[GopherIt!]

For the sake of this discussion, there are a number of players Minnesota should consider "off-limits" in any deal where Miller is the best player Portland gets back. Outside of the obvious, guys like Rudy, Bayless and Batum are all in that category. You won't find a single fan on here willing to give those guys up for Miller. While I think Miller could help to Portland, he's likely just a short-term answer for the Blazers. They aren't gonna give up any prospects that they're extremely high on to get him. Batum in particular is considered the future at SF for Portland. He's starting a bit too soon right now, but once he refines the skillsets that he's already displayed he has, he'll be the perfect SF for the Blazers. It's not going over the top to call him a potential Tayshaun Prince clone.

So from Portland's POV, the only players I'd make available in a Miller deal are Martell, Raef's contract, Frye and Diogu.

Martell doesn't work for MN. I'm not that high on him as a player. I think POR took a risk giving him that contract without him having truly established himself in the league. It may or may not turn out for you guys but I wouldn't touch him for MN.


Minny's POV is that right now they can do one of three things:

1) shoot for either a deal of expirings & modest pick/prospect compensation with the hope of obtaining a player better than Miller in free agency

2) trade for a quality younger player of similar value or

3) simply keep Miller for their own rotation

As for the first option, the kind of players MN is targeting rarely hit free agency. There is some talk of Marvin Williams but I doubt that he becomes available and I'm personally not that high on him as a player. I think their best bet is to target a quality young prospect for him via trade. If that doesn't work they are better off just to keep him.

The entire motivation of moving Miller, by whatever means, would be to get a player of at least comparable skill who is younger to replace him in the rotation. I'm not saying you POR guys, but posters on the trade boards tend to overlook that goal. Looking at your team, it is obvious that Oden, Roy, LMA and even Pryz have more value than Miller. After those guys is where the debating begins. An example of a prospect who has the potential to be as good as Miller but is younger would be someone like Bayless or Rudy. But you guys understandably don't want to give up any of your core players for a veteran guard-forward.

The reality is that both teams have similar goals - they are both looking for quality young/younger players to build their rotation's with. That's why a trade likely won't happen between them. In the end MN & POR are not good trade partners.

[NBAMAN2006]

If the Wolves dont want to add Websters salary, what about something like...

Raef, Frye, Rodriguez and a future highly protected 1st round pick for Miller, Cardinal and Madsen?

[shrink]

If the Wolves dont want to add Websters salary, what about something like...

Raef, Frye, Rodriguez and a future highly protected 1st round pick for Miller, Cardinal and Madsen?

I'd do that. By including Madsen with Cardinal, you make the expirings more valuable, by getting farther and farther under the salary cap in 2009.

[Wizenheimer]

If the Wolves dont want to add Websters salary, what about something like...

Raef, Frye, Rodriguez and a future highly protected 1st round pick for Miller, Cardinal and Madsen?

I'd do that. By including Madsen with Cardinal, you make the expirings more valuable, by getting farther and farther under the salary cap in 2009.

just to possibly enlighten...the 4th year option for Rodriguez has been exercised by the blazers. His salary is considerably less then madsen's, but the wolves would still be on the hook for it. The trade works without Sergio if the Wolves would be interested in the 1.5 million extra cap-space Sergio would represent.

[shrink]

I think Sergio's worth the $1.5 mil next year in MIN, even if it cost us cap space. Would you agree Wizenheimer?

MIN would still have to decide on a QO for 2010, right?

[DaGOAT25]

The 3 reasonable assets I like on Portland are Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, and Batum, who are good young players, but players Portland could move and still keep a strong young nucleus.

Try this deal:
Miller (2yrs 19.75)
Cardinal (2 yrs 13.25)
Madsen (2yrs 5.47)
total salary: 38.47

For:
Lafrentz (1yr 12.72)
Pryzbilla (3 yrs 20.57)
Bayless (2 yrs 4.13 + 2 team options for total of 5.3 million)
total salary: 37.42 + team options)

We eat the vanilla gorilla's 7.4 million 2010 player option,
but open up 7.5 million in 2009 cap room.
Przybilla's defense fits perfectly here as 3rd big with Al and Love,
Bayless can be Point Guard of the future.

Miller can help put Portland over the top, and they open up 7.4 million in 2010 cap room when Roy and Aldridge will need to be re-signed.

Moving Bayless clears up Portland's point guard glut, the homegrown przybilla is a much better fit for us than cardinal, and it allows them to use more minutes to develop frye and oden.

It makes the Mayo trade
Mayo (3), Jaric, Madsen, expirings
for
Love (5), Bayless (11), Przybilla, exprings

Which to me is better than the original deal.

I actually think this one benefits both teams both short term and long term.

I lawl at you so hard.

1. Bayless, Rudy and Nic Batum are pretty much as close to as untouchable as it gets on the Blazers squad. Bayless and Batum are getting limited action right now because they are so young. The Blazers are at a point on their roster that they have the liberty of developing players. They dont NEED Batum and Bayless to be getting 30+ minutes a game, becuase they have guys like Steve Blake, Sergio Rodriguez (at PG) and at SF, they have Travis Outlaw taking big minutes off the bench as well as Rudy.

Bayless IS our PG of the future. Undoubtedly the most explosive and quickest player on our team. He rivals Brandon Roy in the ability to drive to the basket and get calls (for a rookie, that is impressive). Nate is allowing him to watch distributing PGs in Steve Blake and Sergio Rodriguez so he can take from their game and add onto his ability to score.

Rudy Fernandez is going nowhere. Once he gets more consistency (aka more used to the NBA schedule) he will be even more important. When hes' on, he's our 3 point ace, as well as a solid defender and good backup at the SG for when Roy plays PG. Add the flashy dunks and layups, as well. If the Blazers traded Rudy Fernandez, there would be a revolt in Portland. His popularity in Portland is second only to Brandon Roy's.

Nicolas Batum is the prime case of a team developing a player. Nate is starting him so he gets the experience, but limiting him so he can watch veteran players. Experience is experience, the minutes he gets this year will only make him that much better next year, no matter how limited. Nate is pretty much counting on him to be the "Shutdown Defender," and is already drawing comparisons to Tayshaun Prince and Scottie Pippen. 6'8, wingspan of 7'0"+, can leap as high as anyone in the league. You dont put a rookie on Kobe Bryant unless you have that trust in him.

And you're crazy if you think Joel Pryzbilla will be traded. He's the best backup in the league: Averages 8 rebounds coming off the bench. He will be the deciding factor in whether Greg Oden develops into a great Center or a good Center. Pryz is the veteran and looked up to by everyone, including Brandon Roy.

If the Wolves want a shot at any of the players you mentioned... be prepraed to throw in Al Jefferson + 1st round draft picks for the next decade.

You have a better shot trading for Channing Frye and hoping he develops into Kevin Garnett.