Rondo's Defense
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Rondo's Defense
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Rondo's Defense
I think that a lot of people, even a lot of Celtic fans, really underappreciate how great a defensive presence that Rondo is. Some people talk of his occasional lapses, allowing his man to get by him, and say "he's decent", or "he's above average". Man is that ever missing the big picture.
Basketball-reference.com has tracked defensive winshares back to the 1973-74 season. Since that time the only guards to have ever placed in the league top 5 for a season in that stat are: Michael Jordan, Jason Kidd, John Stockton (all three multiple times), Gary Payton and Fat Lever. That's it. Five guards in 34 seasons. Rondo is currently ranked 4th in Defensive winshare, and he finished 6th last season. This isn't by accident, guys. He isn't "lucky", he's awesome, and he's been that way from the start for us.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... aders.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... aders.html
**If you'll notice, the guys surrounding him are A LOT bigger than he is, bigs dominate this stat. He also doesn't play that many minutes, if he played more his winshare would be higher as it is tied to his extremely high defensive rating.**
http://www.82games.com/0607/06BOS2D.HTM
According to 82games.com, during Rondo's rookie season the Celtics gave up 8.3 fewer points per 100 possessions with Rondo on the court. That is an absurdly high number. Keep in mind that half of his time came as a starter, and that Doc was using him to finish games for a while before he finally started him full time. The Celtics were an abominable defensive squad whenever Rondo wasn't on the court, yet did OK when he was out there. Actually, they were more than OK as that 104 rating was equal to that of the Pistons team that season.
That was all Rondo. Seriously, look around and check out the stats of the others. Delonte was getting destroyed at the point. Telfair actually did better, but was still mediocre. It was Rondo who was the guy making it happen, and it wasn't as if he had good defensive bigs behind him then, or a great defensive system in place.
I fondly remember Donny Marshall, in what might have been his first time with Mike on a road game, comment on Rondo's impact during a game halfway through the season against the Pistons. Donny said that he had never seen a young player, never mind a rookie, have the impact on a team's defense like Rondo had. It wasn't just his own play, it was what happened to his teammates when he stepped on the court. It was as if a switch went off in their heads that said "Rondo's out here. Now I'm going to D up." The Celtics were getting their butts handed to them in that game early, but when Rondo came in the same guys who were getting pushed around and bullied just 2 minutes before started to fight back. If you guys have noticed (I know that most of you have), he has a very similar effect on this team. They feed off of his energy.
Sure he gets beaten sometimes by his man. He can improve there. That doesn't mean that anyone is as good as him. Because Shaq was bricking free throws didn't mean that he wasn't the best offensive center of his time when he was in his prime. I find it interesting that people focus on that, and miss out on his excellent pick and roll defense, his ability to dog his man full court; his "shut down cornerback" like presence in half court zones; how he is able to help his teammates and yet almost always get back to put a hand in his man's face on the perimeter; how teams rarely ever "pick on him" in mismatches (Dwight Howard three second call in the last game, because Rondo sealed him off), that his steals are mostly strips as opposed to being the kind of guy who whiffs a lot on passes trying to get a couple of steals;, that his break downs are especially noticeable because the Celtics give him almost no help (not many point guards can claim the same thing).
Then, of course, there is his rebounding which has a big impact on our defense. Rondo has a lot of competition for boards on this team, yet he is still the second ranked rebounder at the point after Kidd. When Garnett went down last season, Rondo averaged almost 7 boards a game even though he didn't even play 31 minutes a game. This kid can tear them down. When he's getting them, you have to realize that he isn't taking them away from his teammates. Those are balls that probably were going to be grabbed by our opponents.
The fact of the matter is that what the numbers show, when you actually look at the big picture, is that Rondo isn't just a "good" defender, the kid is a truly great defender. He doesn't just have the potential to be an All-Time great at his position on that end of the ball. He is one right now. Just because he can improve, means little to me. Appreciate it.
Basketball-reference.com has tracked defensive winshares back to the 1973-74 season. Since that time the only guards to have ever placed in the league top 5 for a season in that stat are: Michael Jordan, Jason Kidd, John Stockton (all three multiple times), Gary Payton and Fat Lever. That's it. Five guards in 34 seasons. Rondo is currently ranked 4th in Defensive winshare, and he finished 6th last season. This isn't by accident, guys. He isn't "lucky", he's awesome, and he's been that way from the start for us.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... aders.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... aders.html
**If you'll notice, the guys surrounding him are A LOT bigger than he is, bigs dominate this stat. He also doesn't play that many minutes, if he played more his winshare would be higher as it is tied to his extremely high defensive rating.**
http://www.82games.com/0607/06BOS2D.HTM
According to 82games.com, during Rondo's rookie season the Celtics gave up 8.3 fewer points per 100 possessions with Rondo on the court. That is an absurdly high number. Keep in mind that half of his time came as a starter, and that Doc was using him to finish games for a while before he finally started him full time. The Celtics were an abominable defensive squad whenever Rondo wasn't on the court, yet did OK when he was out there. Actually, they were more than OK as that 104 rating was equal to that of the Pistons team that season.
That was all Rondo. Seriously, look around and check out the stats of the others. Delonte was getting destroyed at the point. Telfair actually did better, but was still mediocre. It was Rondo who was the guy making it happen, and it wasn't as if he had good defensive bigs behind him then, or a great defensive system in place.
I fondly remember Donny Marshall, in what might have been his first time with Mike on a road game, comment on Rondo's impact during a game halfway through the season against the Pistons. Donny said that he had never seen a young player, never mind a rookie, have the impact on a team's defense like Rondo had. It wasn't just his own play, it was what happened to his teammates when he stepped on the court. It was as if a switch went off in their heads that said "Rondo's out here. Now I'm going to D up." The Celtics were getting their butts handed to them in that game early, but when Rondo came in the same guys who were getting pushed around and bullied just 2 minutes before started to fight back. If you guys have noticed (I know that most of you have), he has a very similar effect on this team. They feed off of his energy.
Sure he gets beaten sometimes by his man. He can improve there. That doesn't mean that anyone is as good as him. Because Shaq was bricking free throws didn't mean that he wasn't the best offensive center of his time when he was in his prime. I find it interesting that people focus on that, and miss out on his excellent pick and roll defense, his ability to dog his man full court; his "shut down cornerback" like presence in half court zones; how he is able to help his teammates and yet almost always get back to put a hand in his man's face on the perimeter; how teams rarely ever "pick on him" in mismatches (Dwight Howard three second call in the last game, because Rondo sealed him off), that his steals are mostly strips as opposed to being the kind of guy who whiffs a lot on passes trying to get a couple of steals;, that his break downs are especially noticeable because the Celtics give him almost no help (not many point guards can claim the same thing).
Then, of course, there is his rebounding which has a big impact on our defense. Rondo has a lot of competition for boards on this team, yet he is still the second ranked rebounder at the point after Kidd. When Garnett went down last season, Rondo averaged almost 7 boards a game even though he didn't even play 31 minutes a game. This kid can tear them down. When he's getting them, you have to realize that he isn't taking them away from his teammates. Those are balls that probably were going to be grabbed by our opponents.
The fact of the matter is that what the numbers show, when you actually look at the big picture, is that Rondo isn't just a "good" defender, the kid is a truly great defender. He doesn't just have the potential to be an All-Time great at his position on that end of the ball. He is one right now. Just because he can improve, means little to me. Appreciate it.
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Re: Rondo's Defense
These stats also point to the fact that Perk is among the three, or at worst, four best defensive centers in the league. We need this full throttle Perk at 35 mpg to succeed in May and June.
What was it Pitino once said about Andrew DeClerq? "He is a jump shot away from being an all-star."
Perk is a consistent Big Baby jump-shot away from being among the top five or six centers in the league. Maybe all he needs to do is ramp up his low-post scoring; but then low-post scoring requires the threat of a shot. As Kevin McHale once said, offensive success in the low post begins with the ability to shoot.
What was it Pitino once said about Andrew DeClerq? "He is a jump shot away from being an all-star."
Perk is a consistent Big Baby jump-shot away from being among the top five or six centers in the league. Maybe all he needs to do is ramp up his low-post scoring; but then low-post scoring requires the threat of a shot. As Kevin McHale once said, offensive success in the low post begins with the ability to shoot.
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Re: Rondo's Defense
Great post. Rondo, especially when he's playing a more disciplined style of defense, is easily one of the top 5 defensive players in the game. This is how he's defended the last two games for the Celtics and we've been absolutely dominant defensively.
Factor in Rondo's impact in the transition game and a quickly developing offensive arsenal and you can see why Garnett talked about him having "best PG in the association" type potential last year. And it's also clear why it's so important that Rondo performs well offensively in the playoffs, because if he doesn't then that means that Doc has to play him less minutes, which means the Celtics defense takes a tremendous drop at the point of attack.
Factor in Rondo's impact in the transition game and a quickly developing offensive arsenal and you can see why Garnett talked about him having "best PG in the association" type potential last year. And it's also clear why it's so important that Rondo performs well offensively in the playoffs, because if he doesn't then that means that Doc has to play him less minutes, which means the Celtics defense takes a tremendous drop at the point of attack.
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Re: Rondo's Defense
The longer time goes on the more apparent that the "Big 3" knickname just isn't apt. Since about half way through last season I've been a firm believer that Rondo is the keystone of our team, though the stats don't show it. When he's on it looks like the C's are playing 6 on 5, he's just everywhere. Perk is the offensive lineman of this team, when he's doing his job we succeed but no one really notices him, when he is off we struggle and everyone notices.
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Re: Rondo's Defense
[quote="Bad-Thoma"]The longer time goes on the more apparent that the "Big 3" knickname just isn't apt. Since about half way through last season I've been a firm believer that Rondo is the keystone of our team, though the stats don't show it. When he's on it looks like the C's are playing 6 on 5, he's just everywhere. Perk is the offensive lineman of this team, when he's doing his job we succeed but no one really notices him, when he is off we struggle and everyone notices.[/quote]
Sig worthy.
Sig worthy.
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Bad-Thoma wrote:...Rondo is the keystone of our team, though the stats don't show it. When he's on it looks like the C's are playing 6 on 5...
He should play for Portland.
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Re: Rondo's Defense
Roko Ukić disagrees with you
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Re: Rondo's Defense
(They specialize in 6 on 5.)
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I feel like you should post this in the Tony Parker Rondo thread on the General board. Sometimes I think they haven't watched the Celtics this year over there.
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Re: Rondo's Defense
Interesting. Too bad defensive win shares are a crock. <g> Basketball defense is a team game and trying to cull defensive "win shares" related to one player is an exercise in futility. Rondo can play an aggressive ball-hawking game that rewards the entire team because he has Perkins and KG to cover his mistakes. The whole entire team is committed to making rotations and proper switches.
This makes everyone look better defensively and guys with some defensive talent like Rondo look GREAT. Don't get me wrong - Rondo is absolutely above average defensively. But he is not some game changing defensive superstar. You stick him on Golden State and they aren't going to be shutting anyone down.
This makes everyone look better defensively and guys with some defensive talent like Rondo look GREAT. Don't get me wrong - Rondo is absolutely above average defensively. But he is not some game changing defensive superstar. You stick him on Golden State and they aren't going to be shutting anyone down.
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Re: Rondo's Defense
GuyClinch wrote:Interesting. Too bad defensive win shares are a crock. <g> Basketball defense is a team game and trying to cull defensive "win shares" related to one player is an exercise in futility. Rondo can play an aggressive ball-hawking game that rewards the entire team because he has Perkins and KG to cover his mistakes. The whole entire team is committed to making rotations and proper switches.
This makes everyone look better defensively and guys with some defensive talent like Rondo look GREAT. Don't get me wrong - Rondo is absolutely above average defensively. But he is not some game changing defensive superstar. You stick him on Golden State and they aren't going to be shutting anyone down.
Yes and no, Pete. Rondo does have KG and Perk to cover some of his mistakes, which has led him to develop his steal-from-behind move where he basically lets a player get by him and then uses his freakishly long arms to poke to ball away. That said, Rondo's real defensive value is not in the steals, but in the shot clock time he makes the opposing PG use up when he's pressuring the ball. For every second it takes for the point guard to initiate the offense, the chance that that offensive possession will result in a positive possession goes down. When Rondo is really pressuring the opposing team's point guard, he makes them start their offense around 14 seconds or so, which really lowers the percentages of whether that possession will result in a hoop. When Rondo's on defensively, it's basically like he's reduced the opposing point guard into DWest. And that's what defensive win share measures when it comes to Rondo: his ability to delay the initiation of the opposing team's offense.
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Re: Rondo's Defense
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Re: Rondo's Defense
Yes and no, Pete. Rondo does have KG and Perk to cover some of his mistakes, which has led him to develop his steal-from-behind move where he basically lets a player get by him and then uses his freakishly long arms to poke to ball away. That said, Rondo's real defensive value is not in the steals, but in the shot clock time he makes the opposing PG use up when he's pressuring the ball. For every second it takes for the point guard to initiate the offense, the chance that that offensive possession will result in a positive possession goes down.
Hmm. I never really thought of Rondo as a terrific ball pressure guy. Besides not convinced that pressuring the PG really does lead to a slow offense. If you pressure the Cavs - Lebron is more then happy to bring the ball up. Same with Kobe and the Lakers... But I will try to watch for this in games..and see if your right.
But Either way still not convinced defensive "win shares" are really valid. The OP was claiming that Rondo is a great defender because of his high defensive "win shares". Track any longtime NBA player and the win share number bounces all over the place..depending on the team he is on.
Delonte West had NEGATIVE defensive win share with Seattle - now he is postive 4.5 on track for 9+ this season! So which is it - Delonte the GOOD defender. Or Delonte the bad one. We all know he defends decently from watching him. But win shares seem to provide very little valid information..
All we really know is that - you play decent defense on a GREAT defensive team and BAM your win shares jump out of the park! That's not really interesting as we know that even in Seattle D. West did defend. I saw him play there. He NEVER dogs it on the court.
Defense is such a team effort nowadays in the NBA. Like i said its just really hard to seperate out without creating new statistics. If we had say %of times player makes a proper rotation or %of times a player succesfully fights through a pick then maybe we could come up with some real measurements..
Re: Rondo's Defense
- ryaningf
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Re: Rondo's Defense
GuyClinch wrote:Yes and no, Pete. Rondo does have KG and Perk to cover some of his mistakes, which has led him to develop his steal-from-behind move where he basically lets a player get by him and then uses his freakishly long arms to poke to ball away. That said, Rondo's real defensive value is not in the steals, but in the shot clock time he makes the opposing PG use up when he's pressuring the ball. For every second it takes for the point guard to initiate the offense, the chance that that offensive possession will result in a positive possession goes down.
Hmm. I never really thought of Rondo as a terrific ball pressure guy. Besides not convinced that pressuring the PG really does lead to a slow offense. If you pressure the Cavs - Lebron is more then happy to bring the ball up. Same with Kobe and the Lakers... But I will try to watch for this in games..and see if your right.
But Either way still not convinced defensive "win shares" are really valid. The OP was claiming that Rondo is a great defender because of his high defensive "win shares". Track any longtime NBA player and the win share number bounces all over the place..depending on the team he is on.
Delonte West had NEGATIVE defensive win share with Seattle - now he is postive 4.5 on track for 9+ this season! So which is it - Delonte the GOOD defender. Or Delonte the bad one. We all know he defends decently from watching him. But win shares seem to provide very little valid information..
All we really know is that - you play decent defense on a GREAT defensive team and BAM your win shares jump out of the park! That's not really interesting as we know that even in Seattle D. West did defend. I saw him play there. He NEVER dogs it on the court.
Defense is such a team effort nowadays in the NBA. Like i said its just really hard to seperate out without creating new statistics. If we had say %of times player makes a proper rotation or %of times a player succesfully fights through a pick then maybe we could come up with some real measurements..
Well, Rondo doesn't pressure the ball consistently and that's something he needs to work on. But when he is consistently pressuring the ball, he ALONE can take off 5-7 seconds of the shot clock, which puts the offense at a huge disadvantage. That's why KG, Doc, et al always credit Rondo for setting the tone...because when he picks up the other teams PG, everything else flows from that...w/pressure at the point, the rest of the defense has a longer chance to get set, more time for rest when they're not playing active defense (the seconds where Rondo hounds the ball in the backcourt), things which then transfer to the offensive side of the ball in the form of transition offense.
The Cs have been keen to the benefits of early offensive initiation going back to at least 2006-2007, when I remember Doc talking about the importance of early offense initiation and crediting the idea to Phoenix with their ability to run highly efficient offense. And part of the brilliance of D'Antoni's Seven Seconds or Less offensive strategy is that it puts the onus not only on fast break basketball but more importantly on rushing the ball up the court and getting the offense initiated, which gives the offense more time per possession to probe the defense and which also makes the defense work harder on average throughout the game. And if you were watched the offenses of the bottom half of the league, I think you'd see a statistical trend towards starting their offense around the 14 second mark, with the better half of the league starting around 18 seconds. 4 seconds isn't much time, but over the course of the game it can be very significant in terms of scoring percentage and overall fatigue. Just watch Sacramento on Wednesday and track the shot clock to see when that first pass is made--if the last 8 games is any indication, Sac won't start their offense until the 14 second mark or later because Rondo's out there pressure the hell out of the ball (and because Sac's PG ain't that good either).
The point guard position is important in so many ways, but one of the easiest to track is the PG's ability to start the offense in a timely fashion. Teams with bad PGs take forever to initiate offense. On our own team, the reason why House struggles at point is because he wastes a ton of time initiating the offense, especially when the other team makes it a point to pressure him in the backcourt. And when the offense doesn't start until 14 seconds or less, that puts a huge onus on the other players to do something to salvage the offensive possession, which in turn causes them to press and do more than their skills allow, overextend themselves, and take bad shots or make turnovers. Though Pruitt has struggled in many areas since he started getting backup point guard minutes, he has done one thing relatively well: he's initiated the offense in a timely fashion. And that's made all the difference.
You're right, though, certain teams like Cleveland don't have true point guards and so slowing them up becomes a different matter, though the principle remains the same: pressure the ball up the court while delaying the offense's first pass. If Lebron wants to bring up the ball, double him to give it up and don't allow him to start the offense.
The win share statistic isn't my favorite either, but used in conjunction with other stats it can be useful in determining the worth of a player. I think the OP started an interesting thread, not because of the intrinsic worth of win shares, but because of the historic rarity of guards in the top 5 of defensive win shares and because it challenges the pretty widely held belief that Rondo is just a good but not great defensive player, a rap I held until reading this thread and re-thinking things a little. Right now, I'd have to say that I still think Rondo hasn't fulfilled his full defensive potential...he gambles too much and doesn't pressure the ball consistently (or at least he didn't during the 2-7 stretch), but I think he's much better than I've given him credit for in the past, probably because the visions of slow PGs getting around him was burned into my mind and I was overlooking the other things he does which benefit the defense in indirect ways, such as rebounding and ball pressure.
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Re: Rondo's Defense
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Re: Rondo's Defense
GuyClinch wrote:Yes and no, Pete. Rondo does have KG and Perk to cover some of his mistakes, which has led him to develop his steal-from-behind move where he basically lets a player get by him and then uses his freakishly long arms to poke to ball away. That said, Rondo's real defensive value is not in the steals, but in the shot clock time he makes the opposing PG use up when he's pressuring the ball. For every second it takes for the point guard to initiate the offense, the chance that that offensive possession will result in a positive possession goes down.
Hmm. I never really thought of Rondo as a terrific ball pressure guy. Besides not convinced that pressuring the PG really does lead to a slow offense. If you pressure the Cavs - Lebron is more then happy to bring the ball up. Same with Kobe and the Lakers... But I will try to watch for this in games..and see if your right.
But Either way still not convinced defensive "win shares" are really valid. The OP was claiming that Rondo is a great defender because of his high defensive "win shares". Track any longtime NBA player and the win share number bounces all over the place..depending on the team he is on.
Delonte West had NEGATIVE defensive win share with Seattle - now he is postive 4.5 on track for 9+ this season! So which is it - Delonte the GOOD defender. Or Delonte the bad one. We all know he defends decently from watching him. But win shares seem to provide very little valid information..
All we really know is that - you play decent defense on a GREAT defensive team and BAM your win shares jump out of the park! That's not really interesting as we know that even in Seattle D. West did defend. I saw him play there. He NEVER dogs it on the court.
Defense is such a team effort nowadays in the NBA. Like i said its just really hard to seperate out without creating new statistics. If we had say %of times player makes a proper rotation or %of times a player succesfully fights through a pick then maybe we could come up with some real measurements..
I'll handle both of your posts here. While I'm a firm believer that no stat, when taken alone, is the end all be all, I do believe that stats can tell a lot about a player. Especially when you look at different metrics of evaluation.
Case in point - defensive winshares and defensive rating. Rondo is currently fifth in both. This is the 36 season that such stats are available. That's a pretty long time frame to sample from. Over the preceeding 35 seasons the list of guards who finished in the top 5 in both categories is as follows
Michael Jordan
Jason Kidd
That's it. Two of the greatest defenders in league history, and Rondo could be the third. You don't end up in that company by being "OK", or an "Above average defender". You don't hang with the All-time greats without being pretty d*** awesome yourself.
What I like about stats is that they help educate "opinion". These stats have only been kept the last 36 seasons, including this one. You want to know who the Celtics career leader is in defensive winshares? Larry Joe himself.
Now some people would say "But he was just an OK man defender." I would say that he was more than OK, but he was certainly no Scottie Pippen (The all-time leader for small forwards in defensive winshare... funny how this stat identified him as such) in that regard either.
What they forget is that Bird was a GREAT team defender. Did you know that he actually had a triple double plus 9 steals in one game, but sat out the fourth quarter because they had a game the next night? The dude had tremendous anticipation, reflexes, and hand eye coordination. He was also as technically sound as anyone in the league, defensively, and knew the defense inside and out. After all, what is THE most famous play in Bird's career? Is it him hitting a three? Nope, it is him making an enormous clutch steal with the Celtic season on the line "There's teh steal by Bird. Underneath to D.J.!!!! Que Bill Walton in ecstasy. The iconic Bird play wasn't an offensive one, it was a defensive one.
He was also a GREAT defensive rebounder. I find it interesting that people can talk about how rebounding is probably the most important single contributing factor to good defense, yet ignore that when evaluating defenders. This stats dopes not, as the game is divided, down the middle, into "offensive winshare"s and "defensive winshares".
A major contributing factor is, also, how good is the defense you are playing in. Are you putting up your individual defensive stats (it is stat drive to a degree) in a good or a bad defense. How much of that defense's water are you carrying. Bird played on many great defenses. The fact of the matter is that Bird's Celtics, like almost EVERY Title incarnation of the Celtics, was a better defensive team than it was an offensive team, when measured against the league. The ratings prove that.
Great defensive systems can make for very good defenses, but the truly great defenses have great individual defenders in them. D.J. was a great defender, as were McHale and Parish. Celtic basketball was a punishing streetfight, not a high speed ballet.
I have to go, but I'll expand upon this later.
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Re: Rondo's Defense
So? You didn't explain how a guy like Delonte West can fall from 4.5 win shares to NEGATIVE in year and then swing back to nearly 9 (on track for this year). It's a suspect stat. MJ was a great defender but you didn't need any suspect stat to see this..
This stat fails to 'educate" if it doesn't pass the laugh test. If Rondo was on a bad team his win shares would tank. It's that simple. Win shares are function of how good a TEAM is - and they don't succesfully cull out individual performance. Good defenders have their winshares clobbered if they end up playing on a crappy teams. Thus its just not a good or useful statistic.
Like I said look through the career of nearly ANY good defender who hasn't been on one good team his whole career. His DWS will jump all over the place. Battier had a WS of 1.5 on Memphis but last year he was 4.5 guy. Is he three times the defender? I doubt it.
I won't take issue with the idea that Rondo is a good defender. I do take issue with banking it on winshares. Play on a top rated defensive team and your win shares will go through the roof. How is that a good statistic? It doesn't seperate the player from the team.
This stat fails to 'educate" if it doesn't pass the laugh test. If Rondo was on a bad team his win shares would tank. It's that simple. Win shares are function of how good a TEAM is - and they don't succesfully cull out individual performance. Good defenders have their winshares clobbered if they end up playing on a crappy teams. Thus its just not a good or useful statistic.
Like I said look through the career of nearly ANY good defender who hasn't been on one good team his whole career. His DWS will jump all over the place. Battier had a WS of 1.5 on Memphis but last year he was 4.5 guy. Is he three times the defender? I doubt it.
I won't take issue with the idea that Rondo is a good defender. I do take issue with banking it on winshares. Play on a top rated defensive team and your win shares will go through the roof. How is that a good statistic? It doesn't seperate the player from the team.
Re: Rondo's Defense
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Re: Rondo's Defense
Gant wrote:Bad-Thoma wrote:...Rondo is the keystone of our team, though the stats don't show it. When he's on it looks like the C's are playing 6 on 5...
He should play for Portland.
Bawhahahahaha

Tanking
Live for the day 


Re: Rondo's Defense
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Re: Rondo's Defense
GuyClinch wrote:So? You didn't explain how a guy like Delonte West can fall from 4.5 win shares to NEGATIVE in year and then swing back to nearly 9 (on track for this year). It's a suspect stat. MJ was a great defender but you didn't need any suspect stat to see this..
This stat fails to 'educate" if it doesn't pass the laugh test. If Rondo was on a bad team his win shares would tank. It's that simple. Win shares are function of how good a TEAM is - and they don't succesfully cull out individual performance. Good defenders have their winshares clobbered if they end up playing on a crappy teams. Thus its just not a good or useful statistic.
Like I said look through the career of nearly ANY good defender who hasn't been on one good team his whole career. His DWS will jump all over the place. Battier had a WS of 1.5 on Memphis but last year he was 4.5 guy. Is he three times the defender? I doubt it.
I won't take issue with the idea that Rondo is a good defender. I do take issue with banking it on winshares. Play on a top rated defensive team and your win shares will go through the roof. How is that a good statistic? It doesn't seperate the player from the team.
Why didn't I explain it? I thought I'd build upon my ideas first, instead of your strawmen.
The explaination for West's negative defensive winshare is actually very simple. He DID NOT have negative defensive winshare with the Sonics. You simply read from the wrong column. Why did he have a negative offensive winshare? Well, I imagine that it had a lot to do with his 9.8 PER, awful shooting and turnover issues playing in a wretched offense. You might also remember that Delonte wanted out of there in the worst way, and made NO secret of it. He was dogging it. It really wasn't that complicated.
As for my supposed argument that defensive winshares are the end all be all of how good a defender is, that is BS. I made it pretty clear that the important part was who else actually pulled off what Rondo is doing right now.
Want to expand the focus a little more? Why don't we. Here's the list of guards who have finished in the top 10 in defensive rating and defensive winshare, in the same season,more than once, which Rondo is VERY likely to do for a second time this season, barring injury.
Michael Jordan - 4 times
Jason Kidd - 3 times
John Stockton - 2 times... the young Stockton, not the older slower one
Jerry Sloan - 2 times
This is not a long list, if you haven't noticed - and no one on that list made fewer than 5 All-Defensive teams. 36 years of stat keeping is a long time, and there have been A LOT of great defenses and great defensive players over that time. Only these four and Rondo have accomplished this, and that means that Rondo is a hell of a lot more than a "decent" defender in a good situation.
It isn't an argument that defensive winshares are the sole judge of whether or not a player is a good defender, it is that you DO NOT join that kind of company by accident, or just because you are "pretty good". Guys can slip through the cracks, and there were some other great defensive guards who were in the neighborhood of doing this trick as well, but they didn't do it.
On a side note, while playing on a good defensive team will impact a guys win shares, that particular stat is a very usefull attempt in assessing a players contributions to expected wins and losses due to their offensive and defensive contributions. If you are playing on a bad defense, then you "share" of defensive wins isn't going to that good.
Re: Rondo's Defense
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Re: Rondo's Defense
Michael Jordan - 4 times
Jason Kidd - 3 times
John Stockton - 2 times... the young Stockton, not the older slower one
Jerry Sloan - 2 times
I think your argument exposes some flaws in these statistics - rather then proves Rondo's defensive greatness. Actually Rondo has been more helpful to our offense then our defense.
http://www.82games.com/0809/08BOS1.HTM#onoff
Our offense slips from 114 to 107 when he isn't on the court. But our defense only slips from 100 points allowed to 102. PG's are just not really dominating players defensively. You don't see many PG's with huge on/off court changes with regards to defense.
http://www.82games.com/0809/08ATL10.HTM#onoff
Now there is an impact defensive player for you. The teams offense remains about the same with Josh Smith in on or off the court. But its defense goes from 104 points allowed per 100 shots to 111.
In short I don't agree with your statistic - and I think your assement of Rondo's defense is offbase. I could go on about his PER against which is not really game changing either.. Don't get me wrong Rondo defends the PG decently.. But I don't believe your statistics really capture the best defenders.
Of your list only MJ really stands out to me. I'd put guys like Russell WAY ahead of guys like Sloan.. Heck even Parish and Mchale in their primes had way larger impacts then Rondo does..
Re: Rondo's Defense
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Re: Rondo's Defense
GuyClinch wrote:Michael Jordan - 4 times
Jason Kidd - 3 times
John Stockton - 2 times... the young Stockton, not the older slower one
Jerry Sloan - 2 times
I think your argument exposes some flaws in these statistics - rather then proves Rondo's defensive greatness. Actually Rondo has been more helpful to our offense then our defense.
http://www.82games.com/0809/08BOS1.HTM#onoff
Our offense slips from 114 to 107 when he isn't on the court. But our defense only slips from 100 points allowed to 102. PG's are just not really dominating players defensively. You don't see many PG's with huge on/off court changes with regards to defense.
http://www.82games.com/0809/08ATL10.HTM#onoff
Now there is an impact defensive player for you. The teams offense remains about the same with Josh Smith in on or off the court. But its defense goes from 104 points allowed per 100 shots to 111.
In short I don't agree with your statistic - and I think your assement of Rondo's defense is offbase. I could go on about his PER against which is not really game changing either.. Don't get me wrong Rondo defends the PG decently.. But I don't believe your statistics really capture the best defenders.
Of your list only MJ really stands out to me. I'd put guys like Russell WAY ahead of guys like Sloan.. Heck even Parish and Mchale in their primes had way larger impacts then Rondo does..
Wow, so you are saying that athletic shotblockers and big men are better defensive presences than guards? You would put Russell (did he play 36 years ago or less, think fast) ahead of Sloan. What a revelation. Did you ever think "Hey, why did this guy only list 5 guards for a 36 year span?" There is a reason:
THESE STATS ARE DOMINATED BY BIG MEN
I find it interesting that you also put Rondo's oncourt/offcourt defensive rating effect out there as if that was some "clinching" stat. Rondo's is -2.4..... Garnett's is -2.6. Call me crazy, but isn't Kevin Garnett a pretty good defensive big man? In the case of Josh Smith, he is the MAN on their defense, and he STARTS. With him out, their defense took a huge hit. It isn't as if they play great team defense anyways with him on the court, just good defense.
The issue of starting is important considering that the starting lineups go up against the best that the opposition has to offer. Rondo faces Deron Wiiliams and Jameer Nelson, Eddie faces Brevin Knight and Anthony Johnson. That is the way that the league works. Rondo gets hurt, and Eddie has to face Deron Williams, and there is going to be a problem. Maybe an even bigger problem than iof Garnett went down, because at least you would still have Perk blocking shots, and BBD is a decent defender who can muscle people, as is Veal when he's healthy. Who is going to guard the league's dangerous point guards? Eddie? Gabe? Tony? Do you really want to go down that path?
You could also bring up opponents PER. Personally, I think it is a very overrated stat. It does tell you what a players man is doing, but what it doesn't tell you is how that defensive player is being utilized in his own team defense. Rondo is tasked differently based upon who it is he is guarding. When he's going up against a premier point guard like Williams, he sticks to him and plays him straight up. A guy like Derek Fisher he roams off of, because that guy isn't running and offense, and Rondo knows that he can get back to him. Sometimes he gets switched to a guy like Iverson or Gordon. Then he goes into ball denial mode and sticks to them like glue. The Celtics very rarely give him any kind of help, either. You don't see Rondo's teammates cheating toward him on a normal basis. That is standard operating proceedure for most point guards.
I'm not really writing this response for you, but for those who be mislead by you. Cheers.
Re: Rondo's Defense
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Re: Rondo's Defense
Wow, so you are saying that athletic shotblockers and big men are better defensive presences than guards? You would put Russell (did he play 36 years ago or less, think fast) ahead of Sloan. What a revelation. Did you ever think "Hey, why did this guy only list 5 guards for a 36 year span?" There is a reason:
I'd go farther then that. The NBA doesn't much care about PG defense. Even the best PG's don't stop anybody. In one sequeance tonight - Rondo ran RIGHT BY Iverson. Iverson followed that up running RIGHT BY Rondo.
That's pretty much par for the course since they don't allow hand checking anymore. Two factors work against Rondo's defensive impact (and are typical for the PG position). He is too thin and too short. Rondo can get bullied around by the more physical guys and exposed on switches.
Thus his overall defensive impact is blunted - simply because he is a PG. Yes he is a pretty good ball hawk and will make some nifty players. But any attempts to evelate his defense impact into the truly game changing level I don't agree with.
In the NBA IMHO it's all about how well the PG runs the show. Thats how Steve Nash won two MVP awards. It's about the impact on OFFENSE. THe fact that PG's don't in general defend well is blunted by their huge offensive impact.
If defense at the PG spot was critical we would play TA who by virtue of his superior body with similiar quickness levels defends the spot just as well. Guys like Orien Greene would still be thel league. Rondo's high BBIQ is what makes him special. He manages to be somehwat productive offensively while seemlessly blending with the big 3. And that's how he helps our team. The fact that he doesn't suck at defense is icing on the cake.
Comparing him to MJ a TRULY game changing defender in his day is ridiculous. Perhaps you weren't old enough to see MJ play. With his size, strength speed combination his help defense was suffocating. It was a thing of beauty. The fact that you can find some weak sauce statistic to link him to MJ doesn't mean we should take you seriously.
I am writing this not so much in response to you but so others are not mislead by you.