What's Happened To The King of Leon?

[billfromBoston]

with scal out for a while I expect to see more of leon. The nice thing about scal is that he knows where to be whereas leon often doesn't. the other thing that scal has done is space the floor for us with his three point shooting. lately we've been bombs away. if you put scal, eddie, ray, paul and garnett on the floor it's sort of like last year when we had posey out there.- each one of those guys can hit the three. losing scal is a big loss right now because the O was in such a good flow. Maybe JR gets some minutes?

You also don't want to be too one-dimensional and over rely on 3 point shooting...surrounding KG/Perk/Powe with perimeter threats is a nice way to create single coverage in the post, but when everyone is a perimeter shooter and the shots stop falling you get nothing --- remember, last season there were numerous games where the team was clinging to their defense just to hold on because all the shots where from the outside.

Live by the jumper die by the jumper - you gotta mix it up or eventually the hot hands go cold...

[billfromBoston]

BillfromBoston, I know we've been going back and forth quite a bit and at this point it's almost ridiculous to continue but I just have a couple questions. Do you think that Doc and the coaching staff will allow Powe to experiment with his full skill set this season? Next season? Ever?

It is my assertion that the team will not allow Powe to do so because they feel that there are better, more efficient offensive options, and that this is why Powe will never truly flourish as an individual player in Boston. Scorers need the ball, they need the opportunity to make lots of mistakes, to take bad shots etc. Powe just doesn't have that opportunity in Boston and doesn't really project to have that opportunity until KG leaves or the Celtics fall from contender status.

This is why I feel that the Celtics are better suited with the skill set of a player like Davis. Someone who can defend the bigger players, facilitate ball and player movement, and knock down open jumpers. PJ Brown was this type of player as well. And this is what Joe Smith would be for the Celtics, and to some extent Rasheed would be the ultimate example of this type of player.

I absolutely think he'll get the opportunity on this team if it is he who sticks around...for one thing - Powe has played plenty of "bigger players" and done quite well. Davis is better at defending 300lb centers and is a little better with team defensive rotations but even then, Powe got plenty of chances to guard centers last season and parts of this season because when his offense is going, the differnce in their defensive abilities is mitigated by production - pure and simple. This is why Leon has been "the guy" for a majority of the past season and a half.

Also, you are talking about efficiency - Powe is the 4th most efficient player on the team offensively - his role may be limited right now, but he's damn efficient at it. If you mean keeping the ball moving, again, I point out that POST PLAY is a slower developing play - when Powe is catching and moving the ball in the high post it is just as fluid as anyone else.

You are also being extremely selective with this statement, as Davis ball-stops a ton when he's on the court. Acting like he is mr. basketball when he often holds onto the ball and tries to figure out whether or not he wants to pass, shoot, or drive is turning a blind eye toward his own current limitations.

Both these guys are thinking more than doing in a great many situations - which is normal for developing role players who rely on smarts more than raw skill to be successful in this league. Davis isn't close to being as efficient in any of his prime usage areas as Powe is and up until recently they have pretty much received equal opportunity to do so. Davis has further to go to match Powe's current level of efficiency offensively and hasn't been some playmaking wonderkind that many make him out to be.

The face up shot is ultimately BOTH of these player's ticket to becoming starting caliber players - but a history of the league's role playing bigs shows that this skill can often take 4-5 years to refine...PJ Brown was not the player you saw last year until he scratched and clawed his way into developing a jump shot - he didn't come ready-made with it.

I think Davis' two position versatility is nice and if he mastered the jumper and the options off the jumper he'd be tremendously valuable and his size would probably make him more valuable than Powe, who is much more of a PF than a center option. But this ignores the current levels of efficiency and each players current deficiencies relative to the time frame they are both under contract for.

I think either could stay or go based off factors beyond their own abilities - the team will surely look to upgrade the center position in the off-season and the trade market could ultimately spell the doom of either.

But I do believe that Davis and his skill set are overly romanticized on this board because of a few highlight moments mixed in with his "fat man" nimbleness and charismatic quoatablity and smile...there is still more sizzle than steak to his game and he has never shown any modicum of efficiency or consistency over his tenure on the team - Powe has, that's all I know...and I don't hold it against him that he's not used for jump shooting when he has been so effective at posting up...

We will see what happens...but i'd bet good money that no matter where each ends up, Powe will be more productive and see more minutes over the course of his career than Davis will - i just don't see Davis closing the gap on their current productivity because I believe that Davis will never have a post game and that Powe will certainly have a face-up game...that's just me though...

[sully00]

Just a little reality.

Davis has a 1:1 TO ratio not great but much better than Perk and Leon's 1:2.

Whether it is by design or not Leon is a black hole statistically. He has the worst assist % on the team 5.7, he is 9th in TO% 16.5 and 7th in USG% (5th in the rotation) at 20.3.

Plenty of other things are in Leon's favor as far as getting to the line (though he needs to a better job when he gets there) and FG%. The bigger problem is that the gaudy production and rebounding are slacking off.

[Bruiser]

Players should play within their strength.

Leon Powe is a Juggernaut that simply outmuscles his rivals.
Why in the world should a muscleman become a finesse player?
Leon causes havoc downlow because of his strength and he demands double teams or special defensive schemes. I'd rather him become a better passer out of double teams rather than becoming a jump shooter.

Baby is physically challenged because he lacks the size and/or the explosition it takes to play in the paint so he has developed a jump shot to survive.

[humblebum]

Thanks for interjecting some numbers into the discussoin Sully, otherwise this discussion will just continue to degenerate into different people placing emphasis on different aspects of each player's games. I think the statistics and the visual impression that both players give on game film is that Davis simply opens up more options when the ball is in his hands while Powe is the better scorer/finisher. The problem that I see is that in general Davis' defensive contributions get underrated while Powe's scoring abilities get overrated, as scoring ability is usually the most important aspect of a players game from a fan perspective (not directed at you billfromboston, just a general comment).

If Powe were clearly the better player, the more valuable player, and all of the things that billfromboston mentions than he would simply win more minutes against the relatively (especially by fan opinion) sad competition that is Davis and Scals. For instance if Powe did possess the mid-range game (that bfb points to) as well as the perimeter defensive skills to guard the Antawn Jamisons and Josh Smiths of the world (again as billfromboston asserts) than he would win an even greater share of the minutes that currently go to Scalabrine. And if Powe truly had the ability to defend bigger PF's and Centers anywhere near as well as Davis (as people seem to think, at least in certain corners) than while also being a "much better" offensive player than he would win an even bigger share of minutes that are currently being directed toward Davis.

So, in sum, although Powe has been the number one option of the three players throughout his time here he's proved incapable of winning the back up role completely. And this is against Scalabrine and Davis... if the Celtics bring in a player like PJ Brown, or Joe Smith or Rasheed Wallace the illusions that surround the ability of Leon Powe will vanish. Again, this isn't to say that Powe doesn't have value but the idea that he's separated himself into a higher class than Davis and Scals is patently false, IMO.

[billfromBoston]

Just a little reality.

Davis has a 1:1 TO ratio not great but much better than Perk and Leon's 1:2.

Whether it is by design or not Leon is a black hole statistically. He has the worst assist % on the team 5.7, he is 9th in TO% 16.5 and 7th in USG% (5th in the rotation) at 20.3.

Plenty of other things are in Leon's favor as far as getting to the line (though he needs to a better job when he gets there) and FG%. The bigger problem is that the gaudy production and rebounding are slacking off.

I'm not sure what the purpose of pointing this out was Sully - I wasn't arguing that Powe is the better passer, just that Davis is nothing to write home about...highlights are nice, but its not an area of his game i'd currently label as an asset - though he sure could develop it over the next 3-4 years...

[billfromBoston]

Thanks for interjecting some numbers into the discussoin Sully, otherwise this discussion will just continue to degenerate into different people placing emphasis on different aspects of each player's games. I think the statistics and the visual impression that both players give on game film is that Davis simply opens up more options when the ball is in his hands while Powe is the better scorer/finisher. The problem that I see is that in general Davis' defensive contributions get underrated while Powe's scoring abilities get overrated, as scoring ability is usually the most important aspect of a players game from a fan perspective (not directed at you billfromboston, just a general comment).

If Powe were clearly the better player, the more valuable player, and all of the things that billfromboston mentions than he would simply win more minutes against the relatively (especially by fan opinion) sad competition that is Davis and Scals. For instance if Powe did possess the mid-range game (that bfb points to) as well as the perimeter defensive skills to guard the Antawn Jamisons and Josh Smiths of the world (again as billfromboston asserts) than he would win an even greater share of the minutes that currently go to Scalabrine. And if Powe truly had the ability to defend bigger PF's and Centers anywhere near as well as Davis (as people seem to think, at least in certain corners) than while also being a "much better" offensive player than he would win an even bigger share of minutes that are currently being directed toward Davis.

So, in sum, although Powe has been the number one option of the three players throughout his time here he's proved incapable of winning the back up role completely. And this is against Scalabrine and Davis... if the Celtics bring in a player like PJ Brown, or Joe Smith or Rasheed Wallace the illusions that surround the ability of Leon Powe will vanish. Again, this isn't to say that Powe doesn't have value but the idea that he's separated himself into a higher class than Davis and Scals is patently false, IMO.

Man, I don't know who this post is directed to, but I certainly didn't frame what I said the way you have it here....Powe has ability in all those areas and should be able to refine them through time in order to be a much more consistent opiton in the situations - Doc has said this much about Powe himself last year after the New Orleans game against David West, ("Powe has a long future as a defender...")

I didn't say that his current ability level in those areas were superior to either Davis or Scalabrine - I said that Powe's scoring ability is superior and that when he is on his game offensively Doc has tended to play him the most minutes because the discrepancy isn't enough to sit him in favor of the other's strengths. I don't see how this cannot be true since its excactly what's happened for the past 2 years.

PJ Brown was brought in last season and it was Davis, not Powe, who saw the largest decrease in minutes - namely because PJ was the face-up big to Powe's post...so I don't know what illusion you are referencing - we've got tangible history indicating otherwise.

I do agree that scoring is overrated by fans, but scoring efficiency is probably the most valued skill for winning organizations - defense is right up there as well, but you gotta score more points than your opponent to win and that can't always be done 85-83 as Cleveland found out over the past 3 seasons...I don't see Davis opening up more options, I see him taking set jump shots as his primary offensive contribution as Powe posts-up as his...

[sully00]

Just a little reality.

Davis has a 1:1 TO ratio not great but much better than Perk and Leon's 1:2.

Whether it is by design or not Leon is a black hole statistically. He has the worst assist % on the team 5.7, he is 9th in TO% 16.5 and 7th in USG% (5th in the rotation) at 20.3.

Plenty of other things are in Leon's favor as far as getting to the line (though he needs to a better job when he gets there) and FG%. The bigger problem is that the gaudy production and rebounding are slacking off.

I'm not sure what the purpose of pointing this out was Sully - I wasn't arguing that Powe is the better passer, just that Davis is nothing to write home about...highlights are nice, but its not an area of his game i'd currently label as an asset - though he sure could develop it over the next 3-4 years...

They address some of the points you are making about Davis that just don't add up. He isn't turning it over 5 times as much as he makes a good play.

Leon is a black hole it isn't an opinion. There is a stark difference between the two. At the same time the biggest difference between them in Leon's favor was offensive efficiency and rebounding and that gap is shrinking.

I like both players and I simply expect Davis to play more because he can play center, and I like the tools he brings to the game. I also tend to think Leon would be more valuable to a team that had more height and more mins at the PF. You tell me KG is out a for 5 games and I would expect to see a lot of Leon and expect him to ball.

[humblebum]

I should preface all my posts with the statement that I'm attempting to bring balance back to the Leon-Glen discussions. In the past, the discussion basically centered around "Glen is awful" or threads like "Wow, Glen Davis is inefficient" etc. while generally ignoring (or simply de-emphasizing) his positive contributions and attributes. On the other hand, discussion of Leon centered around his "historic" levels of offensive production and efficiency while ignoring his negative impact and the areas of the game where he is found to be seriously lacking. Now, if you feel, billfromboston and anyone else out there, that I'm talking to you in those statements then maybe that reflects a soft spot in your conscience . But frankly, my comments are aimed solely at setting back the discussion around these two players to a reasonable accounting of what's really going on on the court for the Celtics.

Billfromboston, I honestly appreciate your forwardness and reasoning in this discussion, and I understand that you are giving your honest evaluation of the situation as you understand it. I just disagree with some core inferences of your evaluations. Particularly pertaining to the holes that I see in Leon's skill set, his physical limitations (which IMO exceed those of Glen Davis), and his overall lack of understanding as pertaining to his ability to make defensive rotations and distribute the ball in an efficient manner. Leon is a fine on-the-ball offensive and defensive player, but his off-the ball contributions are somewhat limited and I'm not sure a lack of understanding, as I see it, can be overcome regardless of the work ethic and heart of the player under discussion.

From my perspective Glen doesn't lack for understanding he simply has failed to develop certain offensive skills to the point where he can be an efficient and consistent contributor offensively. To me this is a heck of a lot more easily correctable than Leon's shortcomings... and in fact we are seeing the fruits of those efforts and improvements in Glen's recent games. Leon certainly has room to improve his on the ball offensive skills, which can to some extent, "offset" his other limitations but I don't see him being granted a large enough role on this team where his offensive production will effectively "offset" these limitations and make him a more suitable full time option whereby he replaces the majority of Davis/Scals minutes.

[humblebum]

And to add to that point, simply because the team brings in a veteran like PJ Brown or Rasheed Wallace does not mean that Davis' skillset is not valued. In truth it confirms the need for that skill set but seeks to replace a player who is viewed as unreliable and inconsistent with one who is viewed as reliable and consistent. IF a player like that is brought in I wouldn't be surprised to see Davis, again lose a majority of minutes because that player would be brought in to fill his current role. And that player would become the primary PF-C option off the bench, AGAIN. This just furthers my belief that Leon's skillset is not of primary concern for Doc, the rest of the coaching staff, and management. He's a nice piece to have because you more or less know what you're going to get out of him (Leon that is) but he's not a piece that invest considerable amounts of money in because the role he plays (essentially a garbage man type player) for THIS team isn't that highly prized.

[cisco]

Great points by Humblebum, I agree with him 100%.

[Egregious Blunder]

Danny needs to spend the rest of the season deciding if he wants to resign Powe or Baby. they wont and shouldnt keep 2 backup undersized bigs. i guarantee Semih Erden is backup center next year and powe or baby playing the backup 4.

as of now, i think Powe has a slight edge, so i'm hoping the Cs are showcasing Baby for a trade.

[cisco]

Danny needs to spend the rest of the season deciding if he wants to resign Powe or Baby. they wont and shouldnt keep 2 backup undersized bigs. i guarantee Semih Erden is backup center next year and powe or baby playing the backup 4.

as of now, i think Powe has a slight edge, so i'm hoping the Cs are showcasing Baby for a trade.

Powe with the slight edge? LMAO! I know you like Powe, but he not better than Baby. I think Powe will be the and is right now, the odd man out.

[humblebum]

Right now I don't think either Powe or Davis have necessarily earned anything more than the type of deals that Eddie House and Tony Allen landed with the Celtics this offseason. Short money, short year deals are in order for both players as of right now. IF Davis continues to play this well throughout the rest of the season and playoffs then I would offer him more substantial, but at this point that's a seemingly a big IF. And still, looking forward, there IS the issue of weight with Davis and whether or not he's going to work hard enough after a new contract to be in ideal physical shape. As I think we've seen from year one to year two Davis is in much better shape, he has a bit more spring and quickness, if he doesn't work hard and loses that physical edge he's not worth more than $2 million for 2 years.