Serious Discussion About Yao's Future

[Baller 24]

Not about his future with the Rockets, I solely believe he's here to stay, but a discussion about his future as a player. I think he will get over this injury hump, he really is a hard working player that wants to prove others wrong, but he's already 28 (time fly's by fast), my main question is, how will he play as he gets older in the next 3-4 years? His skill is phenomenal, and he relies on it the most to do most of the things he does on the court. I personally don't think he's going to be on the decline soon, I sometimes even think that if he's used properly and given the right amount of shots, he can even create a new peak for himself. But a lot of you know more about him then me, my main question is, how will Yao turn out in the next 2-3 years? Will he be on the decline or do you guys seem him as a Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Tim Duncan who rely highly on their skills to be the best player they can. I don't think he's done, hell Hakeem won a championship when he was 30, but what about Yao?

[TMU]

This is a tough question to answer because no one can foresee how many more years he'll play in the league or how he'll turn out in the future. While his game is strictly fundamental rather than relying on his athleticism, he's already missed a significant amount of games in the past 6 years, and he spends most of his time practicing with the Chinese squad in the off-seasons (while other are resting). For these reasons I just don't think he'll have the endurance to prolong his career like Kareem, Malone, or Hayes.

I think his offense will remain solid in the near future. However, I don't think he'll ever reach that elite status when you consider his defense. While he's arguably our best defender, his defense is not as good as that of other elite centers'.

[BaYBaller]

I think you answered your own question. He doesn't rely on this athleticism (or lack thereof) but more on his skillset and height. However I believe he has more or less peaked but should remain at this level until he's about 32+. JVG really rode the Yao gravyboat hard that final year he was here, which was good in a sense because I think it showed Yao's limit. His points were up but his efficiency went down with it. It's not like people still talk about Yao's potential, like you said he's already in his late 20's.

I think Yao's learned more about taking care of his body now as well so while injuries are still a huge concern with him I do not forsee him missing 30 gms every season. About him staying in HOU you never know, if HOU can't land a big-time FA in 2010 they might decide to completely rebuild.

[realfung]

Yao will never win championship in Houston.

[sook]

as much as some of you hate to admit, Yao will probably never get past the 1st round in houston. Either him or tmac has to go this season, this organization is incredibly stupid for relying on the tmac Yao combo.

You can tell if a team is going to work through the first couple of games. Right after the Lakers got Gasol, it was easy to tell, right after the Nuggs got billups it was easy to tell . The mavs got kidd, the suns got shaq and it still isn't working. I put the rockets in the same spot. The "Injury" excuse is way over rated. We were healthy vs Utah in 07 and we still didn't win. I don't think the rox could have won 22 straight with Yao...our defense was the reason for that so that tells you one of them has to go.

I say T-Mac needs to go, Morey needs to do w.e for a quality PG

[YaoZaii]

Maybe we can just tank until 2010. haha.
Sign Mac for the MLE then go for big name PG or something.

[rockybalboa11]

he doesn't use athleticism whatsoever in his game.

i think he can have a very long career (for a 7'6 player) and eventually go back to his 15 footer as time goes on and he becomes a role player. my guess is he retires at age 36.

I don't think the rox could have won 22 straight with Yao...

why not? they won 12 of the 22 with him out on the court.

[sook]

he doesn't use athleticism whatsoever in his game.

i think he can have a very long career (for a 7'6 player) and eventually go back to his 15 footer as time goes on and he becomes a role player. my guess is he retires at age 36.

I don't think the rox could have won 22 straight with Yao...

why not? they won 12 of the 22 with him out on the court.

compare their style of play, before and after. The one game during that streak Yao would have benefited was the Celtics game, it was impossible for the rox to win that one without him.

[teamny1]

According to a person before on this board, Yao has no future in this league. This was a year or two ago. He's too slow and big to be effective.

[Baller 24]

I don't agree with sook, he has the ability to take this team far with his skills, it's just his mentality, will that change overtime? that's another big question. But he has the ability and talent to put this team on his shoulders and take it far, but his mentality might not allow him to.

[PocketRockets]

I don't agree with sook, he has the ability to take this team far with his skills, it's just his mentality, will that change overtime? that's another big question. But he has the ability and talent to put this team on his shoulders and take it far, but his mentality might not allow him to.

There's nothing wrong with Yao's mentality. There IS something wrong with the coaching though. They under-utilize him some games when he was a clear advantage (last clippers game was an exception) and try to go to him too much when he doesn't have a good matchup. RA needs to realize when Yao's not going to be effective a certain game and go to the other weapons we have on the team, T-mac/Ron, speedy lineup. This team is doing okay, but will really take off once RA finally figures out how to utilize his weapons.

I agree this "injury" excuse is wayyy wayyy overused b/c if RA was a good coach he'd maximize his players' attributes to win games. I see too many bad lineups in there. You know what works if you look at Van gundy's lineups, but when I see Haynes in there with AB, Landry....I just wanna break my tv. There's a reason our lead evaporates when certain bench players come into the game (hayes, head). Hayes is good, don't get me wrong, but with Deke back, there's no more need for hayes (barring injuries) and barry is a way more intelligent player than head is.

[sook]

I don't agree with sook, he has the ability to take this team far with his skills, it's just his mentality, will that change overtime? that's another big question. But he has the ability and talent to put this team on his shoulders and take it far, but his mentality might not allow him to.

There's nothing wrong with Yao's mentality. There IS something wrong with the coaching though. They under-utilize him some games when he was a clear advantage (last clippers game was an exception) and try to go to him too much when he doesn't have a good matchup. RA needs to realize when Yao's not going to be effective a certain game and go to the other weapons we have on the team, T-mac/Ron, speedy lineup. This team is doing okay, but will really take off once RA finally figures out how to utilize his weapons.

I agree this "injury" excuse is wayyy wayyy overused b/c if RA was a good coach he'd maximize his players' attributes to win games. I see too many bad lineups in there. You know what works if you look at Van gundy's lineups, but when I see Haynes in there with AB, Landry....I just wanna break my tv. There's a reason our lead evaporates when certain bench players come into the game (hayes, head). Hayes is good, don't get me wrong, but with Deke back, there's no more need for hayes (barring injuries) and barry is a way more intelligent player than head is.

i completely agree with your post, but did you see Pau vs the celtics?

Imagine the rockets with mobile a big man. Every game i go crazy b.c the rockets try to force feed it to Yao and when Yao gets doubled he can't do anything and throws a completely telegraphed pass that leads to a TO. Pau was agile and was able to get to the rim at whim most times b.c of his speed.

[McGrady2Head]

you want to know what his future is going to be? look at rik smits career

[smapor]

He is going to be good for 20/10 (or damn near it) for the next 3-4 years if he doesn't suffer any more major injuries and he doesn't play BB in China during off season.

If he happens to develop a killer instinct mentality he will help win a champonship, if he doesn't he will need to rely on another superstar to carry him as he plays Robin to his Batman.

However I do think as long as he is around and capable of giving you 20/10, any team with him will most likely reach the playoffs.

I also do not think he has peaked yet. His peak will be 30-32 years old, to me that will be his prime years if he does not suffer any major injuries and does not play year long basketball.


I know 2010 is going to be about Lebron and Wade, but after that, I can tell you for sure, a lot of teams will try to sign Yao if he is a free agent. Its not just revenue, its because he will be the ultimate 2nd player to a team's superstar.

[grond]

I agree this "injury" excuse is wayyy wayyy overused b/c if RA was a good coach he'd maximize his players' attributes to win games. I see too many bad lineups in there. You know what works if you look at Van gundy's lineups, but when I see Haynes in there with AB, Landry....I just wanna break my tv. There's a reason our lead evaporates when certain bench players come into the game (hayes, head). Hayes is good, don't get me wrong, but with Deke back, there's no more need for hayes (barring injuries) and barry is a way more intelligent player than head is.

Gundy loved Hayes and played him as a starter.

edit: Hm. Or was that Juwan? Gundy did love Hayes tho'. He must have been first off the bench, if not a starter.

[grond]

If he happens to develop a killer instinct mentality he will help win a champonship, if he doesn't he will need to rely on another superstar to carry him as he plays Robin to his Batman.

This is exagerrated imo (I'm assuming if I asked you to define 'killer instinct mentality' you'd say something like 'demand the ball in the 4th qtr, take over, and lead his team to victory'). But there have been numerous instances this season where we've force fed Yao in the 4th with fairly mediocre results. Yao's limitations in this regard are more to do with his physique (he gets fatigued in the 4th if he's run too many minutes + because he's so big he doesn't get the calls), and the style of the game these days (the whole shift towards perimeter oriented play). Some of these can be overcome with good tactical management of his minutes and the players around him, but some cannot. The idea that he's somehow too soft mentally discounts a lot of evidence to the contrary (eg continually coming back from the injuries, his work ethic, the way he seems to takes losses a lot harder than the rest of the roster, etc).

Still, because of these limitations I doubt the Rockets win a championship with him. Conf. finals seems about the upper limit to me.

[tisbee]

Yao will retire a Rocket in about 8-10 yrs. He's not going to shrink,so his little hook,flip shot and "jumpers" will still be effective for however long he decides to play.

By this time we know what Yao can and can't do. He is an extremely skilled low-post player on offense. So long as he doesn't have to move his feet he is an effective defender using his height to alter shots. He has limited lateral mobility so he is a bad weak-side help defender. He gets the rebounds that come to him,but cannot get those out of his area. His personality is what it is,he ain't going to wake up one morning and turn into Olajuwon. He cares about his craft and works hard at improving his skills and techniques.

On offense Yao can either be the focal point of the offense,teamed w/3pt shooters,and get 25-30ppg(JVG),or he can be the low-post foundation for a motion offense and get 20+ppg and several assists(Adelman when T-Mac and Ron were both out).
On defense Yao's lack of quickness leaves him vulnerable to picking up fouls and losing rebounds to quicker players. He needs to be teamed w/a rebounding machine who can block shots from the weakside-and having the ability to shoot from outside would help.(A Rasheed Wallace,a Camby,etc. If the team is lucky Dorsey will grow into that type,but I doubt his offensive skills and his height.)

Assuming Adelman is still the coach in 2010,I expect the Rockets to acquire players that fit Adelman's offense instead of trying to find complementary players to Yao and T-Mac. A PF who shoots from ouside and is a fair passer. SGs and SFs who move w/out the ball,can catch and shoot,and who move the ball thru the offense. An agile PG who can defend 2s. Yao will be the axis the offense spins around.

[smapor]

This is exagerrated imo (I'm assuming if I asked you to define 'killer instinct mentality' you'd say something like 'demand the ball in the 4th qtr, take over, and lead his team to victory'). But there have been numerous instances this season where we've force fed Yao in the 4th with fairly mediocre results. Yao's limitations in this regard are more to do with his physique (he gets fatigued in the 4th if he's run too many minutes + because he's so big he doesn't get the calls), and the style of the game these days (the whole shift towards perimeter oriented play). Some of these can be overcome with good tactical management of his minutes and the players around him, but some cannot. The idea that he's somehow too soft mentally discounts a lot of evidence to the contrary (eg continually coming back from the injuries, his work ethic, the way he seems to takes losses a lot harder than the rest of the roster, etc).

Still, because of these limitations I doubt the Rockets win a championship with him. Conf. finals seems about the upper limit to me.

Having a killer instinct doesn't mean you win every game in the 4th quarter, it's more of imposing your will, the aura of you can't stop me. Yao only gets this when he plays agree and than he gets very physical. We rarely see this Yao but when we do, it's a great thing to watch.

Forcing feeding it to any player is a recipe disaster in the final minutes of the game. Teams still need to play, as a team throughtout the game.

Not only that many of us assume to fast he chokes on gaming winning shots. You should look at the main NBA discussion and see where Yao is ranked, it's not great but it's not as bad as people think.

[bigbreakfast]

This is exagerrated imo (I'm assuming if I asked you to define 'killer instinct mentality' you'd say something like 'demand the ball in the 4th qtr, take over, and lead his team to victory'). But there have been numerous instances this season where we've force fed Yao in the 4th with fairly mediocre results. Yao's limitations in this regard are more to do with his physique (he gets fatigued in the 4th if he's run too many minutes + because he's so big he doesn't get the calls), and the style of the game these days (the whole shift towards perimeter oriented play). Some of these can be overcome with good tactical management of his minutes and the players around him, but some cannot. The idea that he's somehow too soft mentally discounts a lot of evidence to the contrary (eg continually coming back from the injuries, his work ethic, the way he seems to takes losses a lot harder than the rest of the roster, etc).

Still, because of these limitations I doubt the Rockets win a championship with him. Conf. finals seems about the upper limit to me.

I agree completely. Though I think he can win it all if Houston gets a complimentary perimeter player.

[PocketRockets]

I agree this "injury" excuse is wayyy wayyy overused b/c if RA was a good coach he'd maximize his players' attributes to win games. I see too many bad lineups in there. You know what works if you look at Van gundy's lineups, but when I see Haynes in there with AB, Landry....I just wanna break my tv. There's a reason our lead evaporates when certain bench players come into the game (hayes, head). Hayes is good, don't get me wrong, but with Deke back, there's no more need for hayes (barring injuries) and barry is a way more intelligent player than head is.

Gundy loved Hayes and played him as a starter.

edit: Hm. Or was that Juwan? Gundy did love Hayes tho'. He must have been first off the bench, if not a starter.

1) We didn't have landry/scola then....

2) I can see where the confusion is....i meant "van gundy" lineups such as battier, yao, rafer, tmac. RA does that but then tries to mix it up a little too much for me instead of sticking to stricter lineups to maximize player's attributes.