MIA 1st for the LAC/MIN future 1st?

[shrink]

MIN GETS: MIN 1st returned, Top 10 protected through 2011

LAC GETS: MIA 1st (top 10 protected in 2009, top 6 protected in 2010). Currently 17th

The Clippers have to be thinking, "Dang, when are the wolves ever going to give us that pick?!?" Al's injury pretty much cements the fact that we're keeping it. Perhaps next season we make a jump too, devalueing the pick. The Wolves played well in January, and next season we'll hopefully do more damage with Al, Corey and a high lottery pick on the roster.

MIN must be thinking "Well, there's always the future." However, this draft may be weak, and with the MIN pick on board, do we want to cash the MIA pick now? Most teams want to add talent ASAP, but the wolves may not be in that position.

Here's younggunsmn's standings (I updated tonight's games), so you can project where the MIA pick will end up.

Which side says "no?"

Draft Order as of 2/09/09
No, Team, W/L Games ahead/behind us, Projected Record (by win PCT x 82 games, rounded)

1. Sac 11-41, -7.0, 17-65
2. Was 11-40, -6.5, 18-64
3. LAC 12-40, -6.0, 19-63
4. OKC 13-38, -4.5, 21-61
5. Mem 15-36, -2.5, 24-58
6. GS 17-35, -1.0, 27-55
7. Min 17-33, Even, 28-54
8. Tor 19-34, +0.5, 29-53
9.Ind 20-32, +2.0, 32-50
10.Cha 20-31, +2.5, 32-50
11.NY 21-29, +4.0, 34-48
12.Chi 22-29, +4.5, 35-47
13.Mil 25-29, +5.5, 38-44
14.Uta 29-23, 11.0, 46-36
15.NJ 24-28, +5.5, 38-44 (8th E)
16.Phi 26-24, +9.0, 43-39 (7th E)
17.Mia 27-23, 10.0, 44-38 (6th E)
18.Det 27-22, 10.5, 45-37 (5th E)
19.Phx 28-22, 11.0, 46-36 (8th W)
20.Dal 30-20, 13.0, 49-33 (7th W)
21.Atl 29-21, 12.0, 48-34 (4th E)
22.Hou 31-21, 13.0, 49-33 (6th W) (Pick to Sacramento)
24.NO 30-19, 13.5, 51-31 (4th W)
23.Por 31-19, 14.0, 51-31 (5th W)
25.Den 34-17, 16.5, 55-27 (3rd W, Div. Leader)
26.SA 34-15, 17.5, 57-25 (2nd w, DL) (Pick to Oklahoma City)
27.Orl 38-12, 21.0, 62-20 (3rd E, DL)
28.Bos 42-11, 23.5, 65-17 (2nd E, DL)
29.Cle 39-10, 22.5, 65-17 (1st E, DL) (win PCT is better than Bos)
30.LAL 41-09, 24.0, 67-15 (1st W, DL)

2009 Draft Picks:
7 (Min)
17 (Mia)
28 (Bos)
45 (Phi)
46 (Mia)

[Chance1117]

Could the wolves trade up? 5 picks is a lot and if we paired two and moved up that might be a good move for us. The question is would that be a good more for other teams. Would there be a financial benefit?

[C.lupus]

I just don't see the reason to cash the Miami pick now. We can get a good, young prospect with it. Next year we will likely have the Utah pick even if we lose ours and we'll likely be adding a FA so losing our pick isn't the end of the world.

[MN Die Hard]

I like the idea, assuming the Miami pick stays around mid-round. You just never know what will happen with future picks.....the year LAC gets our pick it could be a high lottery pick, for any number of reasons. Detroit was sitting on a future pick from Memphis for a number of years that wound up being the #2 pick in the 2003 draft (then they blew it on Darko but that's beside the point). You just never know where that pick will fall.

If we can get off the hook for a mid-rounder (in a year we're keeping our own lottery pick AND a late Boston pick) I say we jump on it.

For all these same reasons though, I think LAC would decline. I dont think a mid-first rounder is enough to make them roll the dice. If I was them I'd take my chances and hope for the best in 2011.

[shrink]

Its a really tough call for me. I threw it up here because with all our picks, its likely that LAC would have more incentive to getting a pick in 2009 than we would.

However, projecting where we will be is almost impossible. Right now, there's a big gap between the top 9 teams in the west and the rest of us. However, the impending 2010 free agency and the economic slimming could create some big shifts in competitiveness. Could MIN make the play-offs next year with Al + Corey + lottery pick? I think its possible. Could we remain awful and be headed for another top ten pick? If Al comes back slowly, that seems possible as well.

[C.lupus]

Maybe I'm missing something here. If we are awful next year, then we keep the pick, right. If we are decent, we lose the pick. But if we are decent enough to lose the pick (particularly if we make the playoffs), then the pick is closer to a mid-first. So we are basically trading a mid-first this year for (maybe) a mid-first next year. Meh. I really don't see this team remaining in the bottom ten two more years anyway.

[karch34]

Very interesting thought. I wouldn't make the move if I were MN for a few reasons:

1) Tough to say for sure that any draft will be stronger than any others when you're looking out to the future, so no motivation to protect our mid-round pick this year vs. losing a pick that would have to be (but is not guaranteed to be)outside the top 10 next year. So worst case is #17 this year that much different than #11 or worse next year? I say no.

2) We still have multiple holes to fill and I think the Miami pick whether packaged with someone or used on it's own will provide the more immediate value. Some of it might be NFL thinking but if you're going for a player to help in the future getting that year under his belt prior to 2010 is better than getting a similar player in 2010 with no NBA experience.

3) We still keep the pick if it's top 10 the next 3 drafts. Should it be oustide the top 10 we probably have made a significant improvement where we wouldn't need it as much at that time. Plus at that point we're likely to be young enough that we wouldn't need it for the core as much.

[Worm Guts]

I don't think either team does it. The Clippers would almost assuredly be taking a worse pick than they would get by waiting and the Wolves want to get better right now. The Clippers don't want to risk giving up a high lottery pick and the Wolves don't want to risk giving up a player that could help them climb out of the lottery.

[Biff Cooper]

I would have some preliminary discussions with LAC about it - let them know we might possibly be interested in doing it, but I wouldn't make a trade until draft night. You might be able to trade up with the pick, or get a better 2010 pick offer, or there might be someone you really like that slips in the 2009 draft.

[wolves_fan_82au]

i dont understand the whole weak draft thing
people say it almost every year and they even said it this year yet some of the rookies are playing great

[PeeDee]

i dont understand the whole weak draft thing
people say it almost every year and they even said it this year yet some of the rookies are playing great

It's not a weak draft, 2000 was a weak draft. People just say that because it's not very top heavy like we've been treated to the past few years.

The difference between pick #2 and #10 might not be that great, however, there will be several nice players that come out of this draft. Book it.

[younggunsmn]

This will be the 4th draft it has been protected (foye, brewer,mayo,2009). SInce you can't trade a pick more than 6 years into the future my math says that it will be unprotected in 2011 and not 2012 like it says on the future draft picks page here.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I remember the 2 kg-era tank fests before foye and brewer when we were worried about losing our pick.

If this is true it makes it highly unlikely the clips accept any offer of receiving a non-top 10 pick in exchange because an unprotected 1st rounder from a perennial lottery team is the holy grail of trade assets. Also keep in mind their core is aging and they will have more PT for a high pick in 2-3 years than next year. Do you think Utah would take the Knicks pick if it were say 10th this year instead of the unprotected 2010? Not a snowballs chance.

I think this is not a deep draft like last year's, but it's not terrible either. Plus there are many good mid-1st prospects at PG and C. Someone like DeRozan might nosedive ala DeAndre Jordan last year.

[Devilzsidewalk]

I think this is not a deep draft like last year's, but it's not terrible either. Plus there are many good mid-1st prospects at PG and C. Someone like DeRozan might nosedive ala DeAndre Jordan last year.

I feel the same way. Maybe it's a weak draft for having the #1 pick because there's no "he's gonna turn our franchise around" feelings about anybody, but for the Wolves range it's not bad. You can project a lot of players from being drafted from about 7 or 8 to 27 or 28 without drawing any weird looks from people. I don't think there's a lot of separation, though it is still very early.