If CLE trades for Amare, they can make an offer Sarver can't refuse if they can get the Suns under the lux this year, and save them an additional $14 mil. This does it:
CLE OUT: Szcerbiak, Snow, Hickson, Kinsey, Wright, Darnell Jackson, 2010 pick
CLE IN: Amare, Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal.
PHO OUT: Amare
PHO IN: Snow, JJ Hickson, Darnell Jackson, $6 mil TPE
MIN OUT: Mike Miller, Cardinal
MIN IN: Wally, Kinsey, Lorenzen Wright, 2010 pick
WHY FOR CLE: Buy a championship. They add $6 mil in salary (doubled for lux), but it adds two starters and gives them home court advantage. The deal demonstrates to LeBron that the Cavs are willing to pay for talent in Cleveland, and a ring might cement LeBron there longterm.
WHY FOR PHO: This deal saves them $6 mil this year, which is enough to get them under the lux, so that's worth about $14 mil. Snow's contract is insured, so that's another $3. Next year, they save about $14 mil, plus $9 more for being under the lux again for a total savings of $40 mil in two years. Hickson is a decent young player, but the cash is the real reason the Suns can't say no. I think other teams would struggle to provide immediate lux relief.
WHY FOR MIN: Miller + Cardinal for expirings and a pick. I'd ask for the 2011 pick since this deal makes them the favorite to get a ring and win LeBron, but accept the 2010 pick.
PHO-CLE-MIN
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Re: PHO-CLE-MIN
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Re: PHO-CLE-MIN
I like what we might get but I highly doubt Cleveland could get Amare AND Mike Miller for these players. IMO the value is definitely not there. and while I'm not sure if Kerr/Sarver would do this trade (you never know with these guys) I'd say they might get better offers for Amare.
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Re: PHO-CLE-MIN
If PHO just wanted to dump a bunch of salary, wouldn't the POR deal make more sense to the Suns without Bayless? That is, why wouldn't PHO just trade Amare to POR for LaFrenz and Aldridge...that would put POR under the Lux and save them more money than Snow would...also, Aldridge is a real prospect instead of the fake prospect in Hickson (CLE myopic fans opinion notwithstanding)...POR would jump up into the West elite with this trade as Amare becomes the focal point of the low post game while Oden can concentrate on D and cover for Amare....
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A POR deal doesn't get PHO under the lux this season. Raef LaFrentz's expiring contract (RLEC) still has to salary match. And of course, even though insurance is paying most of it, the insurance payments don't affect the salaries for lux determination. This deal works for PHO because by enlarging the deal, CLE is able to create a large enough gap in the 25% salary matching gap, that they can throw that at PHO, and it adds an extra $14 mil to the Suns. If POR wanted to match, they could, but it would mean inflating the size of their deal as well, so we could do the same thing with POR .. it would just take more of their contracts. However, word from PHO is that they would prefer sending Amare to an Eastern conference team.
I can understand on first look how it seems like PHO is getting robbed here because the talent is low, but the financial savings overwhelms all of that. I think that posters on RealGM are generally fans, and when a team gets back cash, we have a harder time making a trade-equivalency conversion. We do good comparing players, or picks vs players, but money makes eyes roll back for fans. However, there is one very discrete example.
Late 1sts go for $3 mil. This deal nets PHO $40 mil. If my deal had included THIRTEEN late firsts, would you judge the value differently?
I can understand on first look how it seems like PHO is getting robbed here because the talent is low, but the financial savings overwhelms all of that. I think that posters on RealGM are generally fans, and when a team gets back cash, we have a harder time making a trade-equivalency conversion. We do good comparing players, or picks vs players, but money makes eyes roll back for fans. However, there is one very discrete example.
Late 1sts go for $3 mil. This deal nets PHO $40 mil. If my deal had included THIRTEEN late firsts, would you judge the value differently?
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Re: PHO-CLE-MIN
I guess I was under the impression that the salary as of July 1 was what determined the luxury threshold and since LaFrenz expires at the end of the season, his larger salary coming off was better than Snow's...what you are saying is that the tax calculation happens sooner, so Snow's smaller number gets PHO under the tax line for the year...so that makes sense, but I just can't see trading Amare for Hickson if POR is willing to move Aldridge...as you say, POR could come up with a solution to get PHO under the cap this year, which IMO would be more attractive to PHO, as the East/West thing to me is overrated...
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Most everyone agrees now that aldridge was never on the table. The deal that's point to is RLEC + Bayless + Diogu .. not Aldridge, which is a "no" for PHO, since it doesn't get them under the lux twice.
Here's a POR version:
POR GIVES: LaFrentz, Outlaw, Frye, Diogu, Batum, Shavlik Randolph
POR GETS: Amare, Mike Miller, Cardinal
PHO GIVES: Amare
PHO GETS: Outlaw, Diogu, Batum
MIN GIVES: Mike Miller, Cardinal
MIN GETS: LaFrentz, Frye, Shavlik Randolph
This deal also creates the big savings this year for PHO to get under the lux immediately.
You got what I was saying about the lux.
Snow + (nothing) >> RLEC
Here's a POR version:
POR GIVES: LaFrentz, Outlaw, Frye, Diogu, Batum, Shavlik Randolph
POR GETS: Amare, Mike Miller, Cardinal
PHO GIVES: Amare
PHO GETS: Outlaw, Diogu, Batum
MIN GIVES: Mike Miller, Cardinal
MIN GETS: LaFrentz, Frye, Shavlik Randolph
This deal also creates the big savings this year for PHO to get under the lux immediately.
You got what I was saying about the lux.
Snow + (nothing) >> RLEC
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Re: PHO-CLE-MIN
shrink wrote:If CLE trades for Amare, they can make an offer Sarver can't refuse if they can get the Suns under the lux this year, and save them an additional $14 mil. This does it:
CLE OUT: Szcerbiak, Snow, Hickson, Kinsey, Wright, Darnell Jackson, 2010 pick
CLE IN: Amare, Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal.
PHO OUT: Amare
PHO IN: Snow, JJ Hickson, Darnell Jackson, $6 mil TPE
MIN OUT: Mike Miller, Cardinal
MIN IN: Wally, Kinsey, Lorenzen Wright, 2010 pick
WHY FOR CLE: Buy a championship. They add $6 mil in salary (doubled for lux), but it adds two starters and gives them home court advantage. The deal demonstrates to LeBron that the Cavs are willing to pay for talent in Cleveland, and a ring might cement LeBron there longterm.
WHY FOR PHO: This deal saves them $6 mil this year, which is enough to get them under the lux, so that's worth about $14 mil. Snow's contract is insured, so that's another $3. Next year, they save about $14 mil, plus $9 more for being under the lux again for a total savings of $40 mil in two years. Hickson is a decent young player, but the cash is the real reason the Suns can't say no. I think other teams would struggle to provide immediate lux relief.
WHY FOR MIN: Miller + Cardinal for expirings and a pick. I'd ask for the 2011 pick since this deal makes them the favorite to get a ring and win LeBron, but accept the 2010 pick.
I don't see anything being swapped between MN and Phoenix. Is this just a Cle-MN and Cle-PHx trade?
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Re: PHO-CLE-MIN
shrink wrote:Most everyone agrees now that aldridge was never on the table. The deal that's point to is RLEC + Bayless + Diogu .. not Aldridge, which is a "no" for PHO, since it doesn't get them under the lux twice.
Here's a POR version:
POR GIVES: LaFrentz, Outlaw, Frye, Diogu, Batum, Shavlik Randolph
POR GETS: Amare, Mike Miller, Cardinal
PHO GIVES: Amare
PHO GETS: Outlaw, Diogu, Batum
MIN GIVES: Mike Miller, Cardinal
MIN GETS: LaFrentz, Frye, Shavlik Randolph
This deal also creates the big savings this year for PHO to get under the lux immediately.
You got what I was saying about the lux.
Snow + (nothing) >> RLEC
yes, that makes sense, of course...so when is the luxury tax calculated...that is, at what date is the salary of the teams reviewed and compared with the line set by the league?
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Re: PHO-CLE-MIN
Talent wise the trade blows, and I'm sure PHX fan will be very upset by this proposal, let alone if it were to actually occur. But, the key is that a financially-pinched owner saves tens of millions. I get that. But how does he sell this to his fan base who buys tickets? Nevertheless, I think anything is possible in this economy and it would not surprise me one iota to see a plethora of deals like this go down. The rich will get richer and the also rans will continue in mediocrity.
BTW, as I am in Dallas and have no clue, how is Glen Taylor doing in this economy? I know he ranks very high among among those who own NBA teams. But isn't a large portion of his portfolio real estate based? Or am I way off?
BTW, as I am in Dallas and have no clue, how is Glen Taylor doing in this economy? I know he ranks very high among among those who own NBA teams. But isn't a large portion of his portfolio real estate based? Or am I way off?
Re: PHO-CLE-MIN
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Re: PHO-CLE-MIN
tviper wrote:shrink wrote:Most everyone agrees now that aldridge was never on the table. The deal that's point to is RLEC + Bayless + Diogu .. not Aldridge, which is a "no" for PHO, since it doesn't get them under the lux twice.
Here's a POR version:
POR GIVES: LaFrentz, Outlaw, Frye, Diogu, Batum, Shavlik Randolph
POR GETS: Amare, Mike Miller, Cardinal
PHO GIVES: Amare
PHO GETS: Outlaw, Diogu, Batum
MIN GIVES: Mike Miller, Cardinal
MIN GETS: LaFrentz, Frye, Shavlik Randolph
This deal also creates the big savings this year for PHO to get under the lux immediately.
You got what I was saying about the lux.
Snow + (nothing) >> RLEC
yes, that makes sense, of course...so when is the luxury tax calculated...that is, at what date is the salary of the teams reviewed and compared with the line set by the league?
Just had a chance to look it up...the answer is the last day of the regular season as outlined in the CBA (Section 12(f)(1)):
(1) Each Team whose Team Salary exceeds the Tax Level for any Salary Cap Year shall be required to pay a tax to the NBA equal to the amount by which the Team’s Team Salary exceeds the Tax Level. For purposes of computing the amount of tax a Team owes: (i) a Team’s Team Salary shall be the sum of: (A) its Team Salary as of the start of its last Regular Season game, plus all Performance Bonuses excluded from Salary under Article VII, Section 3(d) but actually earned by the player during such Salary Cap Year, less all Performance Bonuses included in Salary under Section 3(d) above but not actually earned by the player during such Salary Cap Year; plus (B) with respect to any trade that occurs following the conclusion of the Team’s last Regular Season game, the portion of any trade bonus earned by a player that is included in the Team’s Team Salary for such Salary Cap Year, plus (C) any amount that is added to the Team’s Team Salary for such Salary Cap Year following the start of the Team’s last Regular Season game pursuant to Section 4(a)(iii) above; and (ii) the Salary attributable to the Contract of any player with zero (0) Years of Service or one (1) Year of Service who signs for the Minimum Player Salary shall be deemed to equal the Minimum Player Salary that would be applicable to a player with two (2) Years of Service.
So the POR deal doesn't look so great without Aldridge, which I always assumed was a necessary part of any deal...however, if that is the best CLE can do (money savings and C+ prospect), couldn't another team get involved to make a more enticing offer?
Re: PHO-CLE-MIN
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Re: PHO-CLE-MIN
tviper wrote: So the POR deal doesn't look so great without Aldridge, which I always assumed was a necessary part of any deal...however, if that is the best CLE can do (money savings and C+ prospect), couldn't another team get involved to make a more enticing offer?
Thanks for looking it up. I thought casey might pop in with the answer, so I was lazy.
As for another team coming in .. yes that's very possible, if they can make a big enough deal that they can give PHO a big TPE (which is worth $14 mil this year to Sarver), and some expirings for next year to build a team and stay under the lux.
The point I was trying to get at with this trade, is that the TPE is very valuable to Sarver, and this is a deal that no team would decline. However, PHO may be able to get a similar deal from POR (where they send RLEC elsewhere, like this does Szczerbiak) so then you'd restart a bidding war. In fact, I think that on straight finances, PHO would do this deal even without Hickson, because Amare is not worth $20 mil/year to the Suns any more. If we're looking at an Amare deal and PHO isn't including other players like Shaq, Nash, or JRich, then it works best if its a 3-teamer. Incidentally, it could be any third team .. MIN doesn't have any extra leverage in this deal at all.
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