While it's not being mentioned specifically, I think the economy and it's potential impact are playing a big role in the possible Carter trades. However, it's not in the way most people are thinking (ie: Nets need to cut costs ASAP). To further explain, I'm going to break this into a couple of part and how they relate to some of the rumored Carter packages.
Because of declining revenue the salary cap is likely to go down in 2010/11 (ie: the summer of LeBron)
To help explain, I'll start with this blurb from John Hollinger back in January
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/stor ... ions09/nba
And if you think the summer of 2009 looks bad, just wait until the much-hyped summer of 2010. First, the league's revenues are likely to be much lower in 2009-10 than they are this season, and that's the number that's the basis for setting the 2010-11 cap. The many season-ticket holders and sponsors who couldn't get out of their commitments this fall instead will jump ship a year from now, creating a revenue shortfall league-wide.
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To illustrate, I modeled a situation in which league revenues increase by 2 percent in 2008-09 but declined by 3 percent in 2009-10. I'm not saying this will happen, but just humor me for a second.
If that were the case, the cap would decrease by about 0.5 percent in 2008-09 ... and then it would decrease by a whopping 5.6 percent in 2009-10. The cap would go all the way down to $55.2 million that year.
Now, how does this relate to NJ? Remember how trading RJ gave the Nets max cap room in 2010? Not so much anymore. Let's look at the Nets current situation. Let's assume you buyout Dooling/Najera ($3 mil guaranteed), decline the player option on Williams and non-tender Boone (RFA), that means NJ has $38.23 mil committed in 10/11 to just 6 players (Vince, Devin, Lopez, Yi, Anderson and CDR). Add in the cost of 3 1st rounders and three scrubs to fill out the roster, that total is closer to $45 million.
Even if we feel Hollinger's projections are too drastic, if the 10/11 cap stays the same as it is 08/09 ($58.68 million instead of Hollinger's $55.2 projection), the Nets as is, don't have enough money to sign a max FA. The other thing this does is eliminate the idea that if you dump Carter for contracts that expire before 2010 (ie: Vince for TMac and a pick) you'd have enough cap room for 2 max contracts.
In theory you could use Boone or Williams as incentive for someone to take Dooling/Najera, but in the end, I doubt the $3 mil savings is enough in this scenario.
Earlier in the season, I was against the idea of trading Carter for a lesser wing with a long contract, like a Josh Howard, Jason Richardson or Gerald Wallace because, we could maintain max room without dealing Vince and the savings from swapping Vince with one of the above likely wouldn't be enough to get an above MLE level FA. Now, the $5.7 mil savings from a Carter/Howard swap (picking up Howard's team option), could very well be the difference between having max room or not. I personally don't love the idea of trading Vince for an inferior veteran, but with the changing cap environment, it's a deal I would be. Being able to dump Najera/Dooling and/or getting added picks/youth would be a bonus. Also, while I hardly think Vince is over the hill, I don't think it's a stretch that guys like Howard/Wallace will be at a closer level to Vince in 2 years.
The economy and teams gearing for 2010 will greatly limit spending this summer.
Earlier this week, Mark Cuban felt that these two factors could trigger a "nuclear winter" where a lot of guys will end up signing 1-year deals. A 2010 where a ton of teams have cap room will be one reason and the economy/cap will be another reason. From that same January Hollinger article:
The net effect, multiple league sources tell me, is that the cap is likely to increase little, if any, next season. Whether it increases will depend largely on team's walk-up sales the rest of the season.
That has huge implications league-wide because the luxury tax level moves in lockstep with the cap. Teams have built their salary structures on the assumption of a rising tax -- but instead, many teams are locked into salaries for next season that will increase 10 percent without any corresponding increase in the tax level.
The upshot is if the tax level doesn't rise, at least 12 teams are threatening to be over next season's tax level on current contracts alone -- including several teams that have been adamant about staying under it in the past.
If the Nets dumped Vince for a package mainly centered around expirings (ie: Vince to CLE or POR), they could find themselves with major cap room this summer. Right now off the top of my head, Portland, Toronto, Memphis and Minnesota (possibly Atlanta and Detroit as well) are the only ones with cap room of note this summer. If you can do a straight salary dump with Vince (say him to CLE for Wally and 09/11 #1s), the Nets would be in a position to be at least $10 million under the cap this summer.
Thanks to Simmons and potentially Dooling, Najera, Hayes, Boone and Williams coming off the books after 09/10, you can sign a guy on a multi-year deal for around $10 million per while still maintaining max cap room in 10/11. While on the surface the Carter for Marion swap that Thorn/Kiki reportedly offered seems nuts, it doesn't seem quite as crazy now. Assuming Marion kept in tune with reality, you could have signed him to an extension, while maintaining cap room. Personally my two favorite FA targets for this summer would be Odom and Josh Childress (if he decides to return to the US). Granger is restricted, but I doubt Indiana would ever consider letting him go so it's a moot point.
The other option is to be able to use the cap room in a trade. As we've seen with Marcus Camby and Kurt Thomas trades, it's possible you can either get a good player dirt cheap or get some nice incentives for taking a contract off someone's hands. With around 12 teams staring the luxury tax in the face, I expect these type of opportunities to continue.
One final note. If there is any truth to the Carter/Dooling/Najera for Howard/Stackhouse deal, NJ could be in a position to take advantage of both scenarios I played out for you. Since Stackhouse's 09/10 is only partially guaranteed ($2 mil buyout), the Nets would save $9.797 million in 09/10. Assuming the cap stays the same next year, NJ would be between $6.5 (which is a touch above the MLE) to $12.2 million under cap depending on where their pick is and what you do with Hayes/Williams/Boone.
In conclusion, I think that even with trading Carter, it is possible to be just as good (if not better) in 09/10 and significantly better in 10/11 even if you strike out on LeBron, Bosh and Wade.
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