OT: Stock Market

[deep throat]

Ayt, I know from the past you are a gambler by trade. You should get into the maket-less of a gamble, but has that kind of a adrenaline feel. The beauty is that you can make money on both sides -up and down markets. Many of you guys on here -DB, PP, Eagle, Luke, JN, -I can tell you guys are pretty sharp. If you guys put half the time and thought into the market you do your local sports teams you would be financial $$$ rock stars.

If any of you guys are interested I would be happy to give you info. I don't want clients-in fact I'm not taking any new ones right now. If you have ANY questions ask me. I know people may think they will look dumb-but who cares you probably have the same questions that others have.

[mnstinks]

I am in the "market business."

I would like to hear what your thoughts are...

[deep throat]

I am in the "market business."

I would like to hear what your thoughts are...

The broad market- I am less bearish after the last two weeks. What you have seen is a 10% pull back in the Nas-what many were calling for- Today-it was almost like they wanted to hit that bench mark and then the market went from 340 down to actually up just before close. What that tells me (and they don't talk about it on 47) is the market is heavily controlled by "program" traders- this is how the Hedge funds have done it for years and now with all the software out there you have the retial "bag holders" doing the same thing. The trick is to realize that and out smart it. I think between now and September there are mostly buy opportnities. The high beta stocks that have done well are going to kill you in down days , but they will make you a lot in down days.

The sub prime loans - This finally hit and hurt everyone accross the board. I saw this train wreck coming months ago- I actually was bearish a little too soon. Even people with high scores are getting turned down (that's temp though and a ploy to the Fed). Look for small and medium lending institutions to go under-this will cause more panic. People that should have been in $180k houses were in $300k houses. People were playing the housing market like Vegas -buying 2 and 3 just for investment. Well, the sheet hit the fan and it will trickle down (and has).

Mutual Funds- because of that fallout the MFs have had to deal with a glut of redmptions into money market. This "forced sale" is causing good stocks to be sold very cheap. If your a bull-you look at this as an opportunity to buy or add.

I personally made a lot of money playing options. I gambled big on some stocks and hit the jackpot a couple times. Then I got more conservative and kept doing what I am doing now. I built a pretty nice client list after several years -kept in contact (good or bad)-made them money-and in some cases gained some great friends. To date I only have one person that I ever lost money for and I waved all my commissions with him. He's still with me and I'm trying to get some money he lost two years ago. I continue to work hard and don't charge him $0 until he makes it back -we're almost there as we shorted GOOG recently. I'm at a point where I could retire now and live pretty nice the rest of my life. With few exceptions I don't take on new clients and run my days with -golf-tennis-swimming-laying out (summer) Winter -Ski -need to add to that list. My bro has a place in Land O Lakes and I'll probably buy a coule of snowmobiles for us this year.

You asked for thoughts and I probably gave you more than you needed. let me know if you have any specific questions. I am not a forum board guy-this is the only one I go to now. I really think this is a great collection of Packer fans (IQ wise).

[Woah Guy]

Hey guy- Sears Holdings (shld) has been going down and almost looks like a good buy through my ametuer eyes. I say this because they are retail and holidays are coming up, but also seems like a decent long term play. It seems like a 200$ stock trading for 130$. What are your thoughts? Short and long term? I feel like they can rebound, I feel like I should pull the trigger.

[DigitalFool]

Hey guy- Sears Holdings (shld) has been going down and almost looks like a good buy through my ametuer eyes. I say this because they are retail and holidays are coming up, but also seems like a decent long term play. It seems like a 200$ stock trading for 130$. What are your thoughts? Short and long term? I feel like they can rebound, I feel like I should pull the trigger.

I've been watching SHLD very close lately - I think around 130, it has to be about the right time to pull the trigger. DT was right on the money about now being a good buy opportunity until Sept, just have to pick the right ones. Other ones on my hotlist are JNJ, BAM, VMW (we use this software and it is amazing), MO - I'm a buy/hold type investor and try to be heavy with high div yield stocks (besides GOOG that I got in at 140).

I'm not too savvy on options yet, but once I get some money to play with, I think AMZN would be a good one.

[paulpressey25]

I'm actually enjoying this market quite a bit. Ethan Penner wrote a great column in the op ed page of the WSJ today where he said its time for all these poor lenders to be swept out.

Credit the last five years has been far too easy. And it's caused one heck of a bubble.

The scary part of this is whether or not the bubble leaks out slowly or bursts as it relates to the general economy. There are going to be a ton of people losing their homes the next year as rates reset on adjustable rate mortgages and they can't handle the payments. Those people are also big time consumers and they won't be spending. And the other shock is as DT noted, the fact that mortgages in america are not being funded this week. Sure, a few prime borrowers getting a loan through the local bank are closing on their homes, but thousands of other borrowing through mortgage outfits like countrywide and thornburg are not.

The part I can't read is whether interest rates go down or up. The market is demanding the fed ease rates, but in reality there is inflation out there in a big way. Sure plasma tv's are cheaper but food, hotel rooms, college education, healthcare, gas, etc are a heck of a lot more expensive than they were three years ago.

[MickeyDavis]

Buy low, sell high.

[SugarRay34]

DT Im pretty interested in this kind of stuff and wanted to start young(im only 19). If you could email me I would defintly be intersted in some more of this. Such as how much you need to start with and some of the basic things. And if you do have room for me as a"client" wouldnt mind discussing that either

[deep throat]

Hey guy- Sears Holdings (shld) has been going down and almost looks like a good buy through my ametuer eyes. I say this because they are retail and holidays are coming up, but also seems like a decent long term play. It seems like a 200$ stock trading for 130$. What are your thoughts? Short and long term? I feel like they can rebound, I feel like I should pull the trigger.

It has a low P/E (just shy of 14)relative to the sector, but you could say it deserves it. The -1.2% Year/Year growth is not good when you have a company like Target that has a 18 P/E and 9% YOY. The seasonal timing has not always worked for it http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart1: ... e=realtime

With a huge universe of stocks there are better opportunities out there.

[deep throat]

The part I can't read is whether interest rates go down or up. The market is demanding the fed ease rates, but in reality there is inflation out there in a big way. Sure plasma tv's are cheaper but food, hotel rooms, college education, healthcare, gas, etc are a heck of a lot more expensive than they were three years ago.

Well, you got an indication today as to which way they are going. Just a small trickle, but many forecasting now further Fed action. The area to keep an eye on is how Gold stocks will react -ABX/NEM/or for a gamble that includes the Rand GFI. I personally bought calls on GFI the other day for my own account and some of my clients. G-Sachs has been doing a good job keeping these down and boosting the $. The influence that Goldman Sachs has on the market is a lot more than people think.

[paulpressey25]

I'm not happy the Fed came in and will bail a bunch of people out with lower rates.....

I'd buy the gold stocks as well. The high-sign given today was we'll take inflation in order to prevent a recession.

[Johnny Newman]

I buy stock in Miller and piss it away!

[Neusch23]

didn't sears get bought out by K-mart?

As for other stocks, keep an eye on Whirlpool, and such in the spring of the year.

They are usually down from slow sales over the winter, and they always put out the new models around March...

I usually buy in Late Jan early feb, then sell in the summer.

I don't deal in big bucks, but when you can turn 2 grand into around 3 grand over a couple of months, its been good to me.

Didn't do it this year since I just bought a new house mid last year and I didn't have the extra funds.

[InsideOut]

DT Im pretty interested in this kind of stuff and wanted to start young(im only 19). If you could email me I would defintly be intersted in some more of this. Such as how much you need to start with and some of the basic things. And if you do have room for me as a"client" wouldnt mind discussing that either

At 19 all you have to do if max a ROTH into some good funds and you'll have a couple million tax free dollars at retirement. Add in taking the match in a 401k and you'll have a lot more. Then if you want to take your fun money and buy some stocks go right ahead.

[deep throat]

DT Im pretty interested in this kind of stuff and wanted to start young(im only 19). If you could email me I would defintly be intersted in some more of this. Such as how much you need to start with and some of the basic things. And if you do have room for me as a"client" wouldnt mind discussing that either

SR,

You can email me here = brewcitybroker@hotmail.com

I can tell you how to go about it. If we're talking about just starting out you can go to a discount house (to save $ on fees) and I will give you info pro-bono as far as the investments. As someone mentioned if you are at a company that matches contributions in a 401(k) you start by maxing that out. If not (or with the excess) you should open an IRA and put what you can in that. Try to pick up any books on investing -any questions you have down the road you can email me. By doing this at 19 your way ahead of the game. The reason I brought this topic up is I can tell a lot of the posters (especially the ones that also post on the Packer board) have excellent analytical minds (something you need as an investor). I guarantee you if some of these people spent that same time studying technical/fundamental analysis and advanced option strategies they do sports angles they would be MUCH better off financially. It really can be an exciting and interesting field-like a lot of things you can out of it what you put into it.

[SugarRay34]

You got mail DT

[Nowak008]

didn't sears get bought out by K-mart?

As for other stocks, keep an eye on Whirlpool, and such in the spring of the year.

They are usually down from slow sales over the winter, and they always put out the new models around March...

I usually buy in Late Jan early feb, then sell in the summer.

I don't deal in big bucks, but when you can turn 2 grand into around 3 grand over a couple of months, its been good to me.

Didn't do it this year since I just bought a new house mid last year and I didn't have the extra funds.

Actually Sears bought out K-mart.

[Kerb Hohl]

dt, I emailed you as well.

[Kerb Hohl]

Buy low, sell high.

Ah crap, nevermind...

Thanks MD, that's all I'll ever need to know.