The RealGM Wizards Board Draft Thread 2008/2009

[doclinkin]

Blair's amazing offensive rebounding should carryover - they do have offensive 3 sec vios in college

They do, and they don't call it. And no defensive 3-sec. The NBA has been far more strict recently about opening the lane. But that's only part of the adjustment, by observation the Big East has always traditionally allowed a more rough and tumble style of play, more banging handchecking, shoving etc. than other NCAA conferences. Used to be a good training ground for the NBA, especially the Beast Coast style fo force basketball. But now Mr Stern has asked the refs to actually enforce the rulebook to allow a more wide-open style of play, less thugly.

Things that Blair does by habit may earn him whistles-- aside from camping in the paint, Blair tends to lower his shoulder and blast his guy out of the way, he also has a habit of dislodging his man from space and shoving them off position with his lower body, he's pretty 'handsy' pushing off to shove guys out of the way. He hides this with his bulk and positioning and is clever, but at the NCAA level he's a star, refs allow it. In the NBA as a raw rook, playing below the rim, refs will tend not to give him the benefit of the doubt. It's just the way they call things.

He's smart enough to adjust quickly, he's strong enough to have an effect, but he won't be as efficient as he is at Pitt. No biggie. Just that Griffin's game will tend to translate more swiftly, and as a big hi-flyer refs will tend to give him starpower treatment more than they reward the back-alley murderwork that Blair does. No quality judgement from me, I miss the nasty, I'm just squinting from the point of view of the NBA zebras vs those of the Big BEast.

[MF23]

I think Blair might be better than Griffin.

I'm almost scared to say that, but Blair's just a way better rebounder and he's also an efficient scorer at the NCAA level. Blair's playing in a tougher conference. What he did to Thabeet is something Griffin couldn't do.

I know the Texas game was really bad for Griffin, but regardless, I'm not as high on him as I was.

CCJ do you mean that Blair has better ball skills than Griffin? I'd agree with that assessment. Blair is a great rebounder with a feel for the basket. He knows the physics of the basketball and has the natural instincts to use his mass in order to rebound and get shots off. Not many players really have the ability to execute what they know at a high level. He carries himself with the right mind set. I like the fact he's from Pitt and he's mentally tough. As of right now I don't have a comparison for him but I'd like to think his impact could be a Reggie Evans but with the ability to get you 10-15 pts off the bench in the NBA.

With Griffin I see a starter from day 1. He seems 6'8 1/2 but his physicality should make up for that on the pro level. I've never seen him back down ever. People have tried to see how soft he is and he has not shown any signs of being discouraged. His pedigree kind of dictates he'll push himself into the upper echelon of NBA talent. He's the type that might throw a chair in the locker room not because he's a malcontent but he just that competitive. I love those type of players in the 4th quarter. The only other player I see in college like that is Maynor at VCU. The types at the end of games you know are money.

To whoever doesn't like Curry your making a big mistake doubting his pro prospects. He's a play maker with natural instincts. If he played with better players you couldn't stop him on offense. Natural ability to put the ball in the basket but with the added ability to get the ball to players in rhythm. Ala Nick VanExel. I'd like to see him go to the Bobcats and have Larry Brown work him into a good NBA defender.

[pancakes3]

note on harden:
he is better than advertised. if you watched the game last night, you could tell that the PG is defensively incompetent, their big man Pendergraph is playing beyond his means thanks to Harden's underappreciated playmaking, and that Khuksis is only shooting so well from beyond the arc because he's wide open every time because of a collapsing zone to close in on Harden. He made some nifty passes last night - 2 of them i remember specifically that were botched because his teammates didn't execute.

also, the zone defense doesn't mask harden. it masks their PG. every single play Nic Wise went at that pg, forcing the zone to shift in that direction, leaving Harden on an island against budinger. I think Harden will surprise a lot of people next year. And for anyone who said that a solid shooting guard that makes their open shots, finds the open man, and plays solid defense is easy to find in this league, i'd like to know why we haven't found one yet.

also, Henderson was impressive last night and aminu was non-existent.

[dobrojim]

Been watching a lot of college basketball today seeing as how I am sick as a dog.

Curry proved, without a shadow of a doubt he is not a lottery pick. I don't get the hype around this guy. It reminds me of the hype JJ Reddick got, but it took him 3 years to get off the bench. At one point, Curry was like 2-12 including 0-7 from the three point line. He relies too heavily on his jump shot.

Watching Georgetown's game vs. Marquette. Jerel McNeal continues to impress me, and Wesley Matthews ain't a bad player either. I really think McNeal has first round potential.

I saw the Davidson game as well but I'm not quite as prepared to jump ship on him
yet. I'm not sure his ankle was that great and he just had an off game. Let's hope
Davidson makes the tourney so we can watch him there against more good teams
and presumably/possibly in better health.

[dobrojim]

Watching the UNC-MD game, is Tyler Hansbrough still considered a pro prospect? It is amazing how much of a media darling he is, yet I see no skill what so ever (ESPN for you). If he can't muscle his guy in the post, with the help of the refs, he has nothing. I doubt he lasts in the association longer than 2 years. I am impressed with Lawson's speed. If the Wiz didn't have Critt, I'd say use the 2nd to get him.

I seriously doubt Lawson lasts that long.

But I'm with you on TH.

[dobrojim]

Btw, Blair did it again last night. 10 offensive rebouns and 18 total in 23 minutes, while the DePaul team had 4 offensive and 22 total... in 40 minutes. And he scored 20 points and blocked 2 shots. Unbelievable.

There's no doubt Blair would be a tremendous addition to the Wiz, I would trade Andray Blatche for a mid 1st round pick to get him. Depending on how Andray played the night before, sometimes that seems like too much to give up, sometimes it seems like a bargain.

Or we could just use the lottery pick on him and hope he's the next Wes Unseld. But it seems like everyone isn't quite ready to do that just yet.

QFT

after SAN, it'd be a bargain

the big unknown is when if ever will he develop consistency.

[dobrojim]

I'd rather have Buddinger than Henderson. I don't like Henderson. Never have, never will. Buddinger plays every minute of every game (so does Hill). Buddinger is a great shooter. He's a bigger Rip Hamilton, except he's a better shooter coming out of college, and a better athlete, and a better all-around player. We have said we need a spot up shooter, well Chase is that guy.

If you want a shooting guard to defend, take Terrence Williams, who boards like a mother, passes like a mother, and is tougher.

Everyone watch tonight's Arizona-Arizona State matchup. Harden, Buddinger, and Hill on display.

first time I remember seeing Budd was last night. He didn't seem to have a great game
but I didn't see the whole thing. I did see where he displayed a little 'tude with the
elbow to the top of the head. And he got away with it which is the important part
if he's on your team.

First time for Hill too. He looked pretty good I thought in spite of struggling in
the beginning of the 2nd half and missing the potential game winner/tying.

Harden still seems over-rated to me if people are thinking top 5.

[Ruzious]

The other crazy thing about Blair is that he's only 19. He's a man among boys despite being barely more than a boy himself.

I'm starting to like Gerald Henderson more and more as our ideal fit at starting SG.

How's this for a trade scenario:

Washington trades #2 pick + #31 pick + Songalia + Stevenson + Pecherov
Minnesota trades Cardinal + #7 + #17.

Then draft Henderson and Blair at #7 and #17.

That saves $3.3M immediately, and $9M in 2009/10. It gives us two gritty, hard-nosed guys to provide toughness, defense and rebounding. Henderson looks NBA-ready on Day 1, and Blair will have the time to develop some essential NBA skills (like a midrange shot) while playing behind Jamison and Blatche.

Future lineup:
PG Arenas/Crittenton
SG Henderson/Young
SF Butler/McGuire
PF Jamison/Blatche/Blair
C Haywood/Blatche/McGee

Buy out Etan for whatever savings we can get, and keep Cardinal and James around as emergency vets and potentially as cap filler in a trade deadline deal.

I can go for that - as long as I'm comfortable that Henderson is going to improve on his 3 point shot. He's certainly got the mid-range game going. I saw him listed at 6'4; he looks more like 6'6 to me. He must have grown from last year. It might not be crazy to say that he's going to be more like Roy than Harden is. Both players complement the core of the roster well.

[dobrojim]

and Nate... defend Henderson? I see him as overhyped because he's the only semblance of a marketable product that the Dookies have. His game is that of a sg/sf tweener because he lacks the perimeter game to be a pure sg, and he lacks the size of a swingman like the aforementioned Bud, Green, and Turner to be a sf. I do like his hustle and athleticism but he doesn't get to the free throw line OR drain it from range as well as some of the other prospects out there

[snip] He is the best defender on one of the best defensive teams in the nation.

I know the kneejerk reaction among Wizards fans is to hate Duke players. I get that. But in this case, I don't think Henderson is a product of the Duke hype machine. Henderson is a guy most people have overlooked because he hasn't (until recently) put up gaudy numbers. He just quietly does the things that win ball games. I think he's a perfect complement to Arenas. He'll pan out to be a rich man's Deshawn Stevenson.

I've never been a fan of Chase Buddinger. People overrate his athleticism because he's a white guy who can jump real high. Other than his vertical leap, I don't see anything about him that strikes me as particularly athletic. He's not blazing fast. He doesn't have great lateral quickness. I see him more as a Wally Szczerbiak than a Rip Hamilton, only Wally is a better shooter.

I'm not really a Duke hater since I didn't go to an non-Duke ACC school. And I live in
Reston and was a huge Grant Hill fan. We might do worse than this kid Henderson.

That said, is Duke really that good defensively? I'm not sure I'm buying that.
THey've given up a lot of points in more than a few games it seems.
If they are, it's more coaching than ability. But maybe that's a good thing, within
limits anyway.

Bud didn't impress me that much one way or the other. The big kid for ASU looked
pretty good. Got open and got dunks. Made FTs.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think Blair might be better than Griffin.

I'm almost scared to say that, but Blair's just a way better rebounder and he's also an efficient scorer at the NCAA level. Blair's playing in a tougher conference. What he did to Thabeet is something Griffin couldn't do.

I know the Texas game was really bad for Griffin, but regardless, I'm not as high on him as I was.

CCJ do you mean that Blair has better ball skills than Griffin? I'd agree with that assessment. Blair is a great rebounder with a feel for the basket. He knows the physics of the basketball and has the natural instincts to use his mass in order to rebound and get shots off. Not many players really have the ability to execute what they know at a high level. He carries himself with the right mind set. I like the fact he's from Pitt and he's mentally tough. As of right now I don't have a comparison for him but I'd like to think his impact could be a Reggie Evans but with the ability to get you 10-15 pts off the bench in the NBA.

Blair does play under control and I think he'll be a much better pro than most anticipate.

Right now in the entire NCAA, Blair is #1 in Efficiency/40, Win Score/40, Rebounds/40, Offensive Rebounds/40 -- and his team is probably #1 in the country.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/DeJ ... s/leaders/

Pace adjusted per 40, Blair is at 24.4 points, 19.9 rebounds with 2.4 steals.

Griffin's really good, but just by the numbers Blair is better.

[dobrojim]

Would Boozer be a good comparison to what Griffin is going to be like?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Would Boozer be a good comparison to what Griffin is going to be like?

Griffin IMO is more athletic than Boozer. More hops. He really reminds me of a young Karl Malone.

Blair is most like Wes Unseld IMO. He might be somewhat of a Millsap type, too.

[yungal07]

Blair is listed at 6'7, which probably means he's about the same height as Caron Butler. Yikes. Unless the guy has the playmaking and perimeter shooting abilities of Charles Barkley (which he doesn't), I'll pass.

I still believe you need height and length on the inside to win. Burly power forwards can be had with the MLE or in the 2nd round.

[Wizardspride]

Blair is listed at 6'7, which probably means he's about the same height as Caron Butler. Yikes. Unless the guy has the playmaking and perimeter shooting abilities of Charles Barkley (which he doesn't), I'll pass.

I still believe you need height and length on the inside to win. Burly power forwards can be had with the MLE or in the 2nd round.

I agree with your entire post.

[closg00]

Blair = Future Fatty in the Michael Sweetney, Lonny Baxter, Tractor Trailor mold. He's an overweight 19-y/o who knows how to beast in the college game. Against NBA talent and NBA style of play, I see him as a limited-use bench-player too-slow for most match-ups. A risky pick considering his body-type.

[Ruzious]

Blair is listed at 6'7, which probably means he's about the same height as Caron Butler. Yikes. Unless the guy has the playmaking and perimeter shooting abilities of Charles Barkley (which he doesn't), I'll pass.

I still believe you need height and length on the inside to win. Burly power forwards can be had with the MLE or in the 2nd round.

He doesn't have the height, but he does have the length. DraftExpress.com says he's has a 7'3 wingspan - which is better than most PFs - though probably part of that has to do with his wide chest - so I'm guessing his standing reach won't be as impressive - but probably still average for an NBA PF.

Btw - Caron's pre-draft measurements were a short 6'6.5 in shoes with a solid (for a 3) wingspan of 6'11.5. Just thinking out loud - If he loses some weight this offseason to get a little quicker, his measurements look great for a 2. Remember Bernard King did that toward the end of his career and had his best scoring years. Caron is playing some 2 now, but he needs to lose weight if he's going to be really consistently effective there, imo.

Btw, there have never been any forwards - burly, spindly, or in between - that have put up the PER that Blair has - as long as the PER stat has been kept - pros or college. And he's doing it while leading his team to the number 1 ranking in college ball.

[yungal07]

He doesn't have the height, but he does have the length. DraftExpress.com says he's has a 7'3 wingspan - which is better than most PFs - though probably part of that has to do with his wide chest - so I'm guessing his standing reach won't be as impressive - but probably still average for an NBA PF.

Btw, there have never been any forwards - burly, spindly, or in between - that have put up the PER that Blair has - as long as the PER stat has been kept - pros or college. And he's doing it while leading his team to the number 1 ranking in college ball.

Don't get me wrong...Blair's statistical numbers are downright amazing. But at that height and probably an underwhelming standing reach, I'd have to look at his overall game. How's his passing? Does he have a midrange game? Can he block shots? I would need some other aspect of his game to be exceptional for me to jump on the bandwagon. Blair seems to be a guy that can rebound at an amazing rate, and I do believe that will translate to the NBA rather quickly. But what else does he do that's above average?

I dunno...I tend to like the McGee's of the world over the Blair's of the world, because you can't teach height, length, and athletic ability. Muscle, bulk, and post moves can be taught. Maybe if Blair grows another inch or so -- he is after all, only 19 years old. I'd also have to check out that bf% as well. I definitely wouldn't want a potential Mike Sweetney scenario to happen.

[Dat2U]

I like Blair, like him alot actually but I wouldn't hestitate to take Blake Griffin or Greg Monroe ahead of him. Outside of those two, I see no other PF/C that I could say would have the potential to be substantially better in the NBA than Blair.

Of course being Wes Unseld 30+ years ago and being like Wes Unseld now in today's NBA are two totally different things. Today's NBA is much more athletic and the guys tend to be much taller and longer than they were during his day. It would be pretty tough to get away with being a 6-6 center in this day in age. Blair will need to be paired with a legit 7-0 footer to really suceed at this level.

I do like the idea of Blair on a front line with Blatche, McGee or Haywood. I'd say Blair has played his way into being a mid first round pick. Especially if he measures out well in terms of his standing reach. I love his tenacity & toughness.

If we don't end up with one of the first two picks I wouldn't mind at all if we could somehow turn that high lottery pick into later picks to draft Curry & Blair.

[Ruzious]

Sweetney and Tractor Traylor have ruined things for shoort fat PFs everywhere!

Oliver Miller, Hotplate Williams... the list goes on.

[dobrojim]

true points Dat

re Wes - he was quite athletic in his younger pre-injury, youthfulness.

Weight can take a toll on owns knees...but if we're talking about drafting (Blair),
that's not his whole career.