Hollinger article: lux-crunched teams

[TrentTuckerForever]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/s ... iem-090223

The Hornets were the team that caught my eye in this article:

The Hornets are also in a bind after the Chandler deal blew up on them. It seems all but certain that they'll sell or trade their first-round pick, since the cap hold alone could end up pushing them over the tax line, and they probably need to add promising forward Julian Wright along with another fairly sizable deal (Mo Peterson or James Posey, for instance), in order to get under the tax. Trading Chandler would get the most in return, of course, and could allow them to keep the kids, but it would leave a gaping hole in the middle, and it will be tough to find a partner with $12 million in cap space.

I'm no shrink, but I'm starting to get the hang of this whole cap-management thing... the Wolves have between $50 and $56 million (depending on whether or not they keep Williams or Carney) committed next year. As Hollinger notes, the lux line will probably be around $70 million. Would you guys trade most of this space for Chandler? And if so, what would you give up to get him?

Any other names on these lux teams you'd want? I might do a Washington deal similar to what Hollinger outlines to get another high pick, even though this draft isn't thought to be that good.

A little off-topic - I'm thinking Sarver is just crazy enough not to pick up Steve Nash's option next year. If the Suns miss the playoffs and dumping Nash saves him $20 million dollars...

[deeney0]

It's not the lux you've got to look at, but the cap. if the Wolves are over the cap, they have to match salaries (within 25%) to take on Chandler - so they can cut a year off his deal, but it'll be hard for them to get under the lux. Chandler for Miller or Chandler for Cardinal + Madsen + Brown both fit the bill and let NO cut a bit of salary.

[PeeDee]

Since we've already forgone the 09 free agent period (by not unloading Miller and Card), I'd prefer to take all our expirings till the deadline of '10. I get the feeling we might see someone of significance traded to the Wolves if we do that. Their contracts are only going to get more and more valuable.

[TrentTuckerForever]

It's not the lux you've got to look at, but the cap. if the Wolves are over the cap, they have to match salaries (within 25%) to take on Chandler - so they can cut a year off his deal, but it'll be hard for them to get under the lux. Chandler for Miller or Chandler for Cardinal + Madsen + Brown both fit the bill and let NO cut a bit of salary.

Right, I didn't mean to imply that the cap doesn't matter. This year's cap is $58 million, next year's will be slightly less. The Wolves can't take on Chandler for nothing salary-wise, but they can send out less then they take on so long as they are under the cap after the deal, right?

If the Wolves renounce Williams and Carney, they could trade Cardinal, Madsen and a future first for Chandler, because the deal would leave the Wolves under the cap (around $53 million committed.)

[TrentTuckerForever]

Since we've already forgone the 09 free agent period (by not unloading Miller and Card), I'd prefer to take all our expirings till the deadline of '10. I get the feeling we might see someone of significance traded to the Wolves if we do that. Their contracts are only going to get more and more valuable.

Even if the cap goes down, as expected, the Wolves can still be 09 FA players. They're committed to $50 million right now for next year, and so could make a deal starting around $6-7 million to a veteran, which is more than the midlevel. In what's expected to be a depressed marketplace that might be enough.

Ric Bucher was saying during the Cavs/Pistons game last night that in the opinion of a lot of GMs, players like Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd and Allen Iverson might end up playing for the midlevel next year. I'm not saying the Wolves need those guys, just that you probably don't need $10 million in cap space to add a good free agent in 2009.

[theGreatRC]

Since we've already forgone the 09 free agent period (by not unloading Miller and Card), I'd prefer to take all our expirings till the deadline of '10. I get the feeling we might see someone of significance traded to the Wolves if we do that. Their contracts are only going to get more and more valuable.

I agree.

I say we keep them both in the off-season, and make teams contending for cap space in 2010 to overpay us in talent for expiring contracts which are going to be top priority next season with LeBron, Bosh, Wade, blah blah(I still think only Bosh will leave his team) all becoming the stars of the '10 off-season.

I have a feeling we can pull a great player or two from a desperate team nearing the deadline next season.

[john2jer]

But if the Wolves are sitting around 55mil next year, that's counting cap holds from draft picks. We could potentially do a Cardinal/Madsen for Chandler trade and that would put us right up against the salary cap.

Preferably we'd work with Washington or Phoenix, though because of their higher draft picks, plus I'm sure they'd be more willing to ditch salary as they do have talented teams, yet missed the play-offs.

Potential deal with Phoenix?

Suns give: Jason Richardson and #14 pick
Wolves give: Mike Miller

Doing the math, I believe this would put us right at the Salary Cap, slightly over, but with the 125% rule, we should still be fine. Wolves bring in a more dynamic guard who can still rebound, but is better at attacking the basket and more athletic. The extra pick could either be used or packaged with the Miami pick to move into the top 10 again, potentially bringing us Thabeet and Holiday, for example.

C - Thabeet/Love
PF - Jefferson/Smith
SF - Richardson/Gomes
SG - Foye/Brewer
PG - Holiday/Telfair

Phoenix cuts $3.5mil just in the salary difference between Miller and Richardson for 2009, plus cuts a year off J-Rich's deal which pays 14mil in 2010, bringing them to around $35mil(counting Amare, $20mil w/o) in committed salary in 2010 and ready to start the rebuilding process. The also save on having to pay a draft pick, so after the lux it's like a combined $9mil savings in 2009 and $14mil in 2010. They also don't lose a lot of talent going from J-Rich to Mike Miller as Miller would increase spacing and be provided with a lot of open looks due to Shaq, Amare, and Nash. Spot, catch, shoot.

Potential deal with Washington?

Wizards give: Brendan Haywood, Mike James, and #4
Wolves give: Mike Miller and #17

Same situation as far as the Wolves cap situation. We should be within range. We greatly upgrade the 17 pick to 4, bring in a veteran center to help Kevin Love, and James/Haywood expire in 2010, so it's just taking on the extra salary next year, not extending anything. Some mocks have shown depending on the way the balls bounce that we could potentially get Rubio and Thabeet with 4 and 6.

C - Haywood/Thabeet
PF - Jefferson/Love
SF - Gomes/Smith
SG - Foye/Brewer
PG - Rubio/Telfair

Washington brings in a talented off-guard who'd pair well with their big three adding rebounding, passing, and outside shooting off Arenas dribble drives. This also opens minutes for their talented young posts. When they're fully healthy they can be a very dangerous team, and this makes them even better in the the East. potentially a top 4 team in the East next year. Saves them ~$10mil when considering lux savings and the downgrade in the pick.

In both of these situations we still have Cardinal and Madsen's expiring deals that could be traded for a $9-10mil/year player on a long contract that would improve us even more.

[Devilzsidewalk]

are the Wolves even doing much better financially than New Orleans

[TrentTuckerForever]

are the Wolves even doing much better financially than New Orleans

Yes because they aren't up against the lux. I haven't read anything to suggest that Taylor is looking to save money for money's sake. The Wolves have shed salary since the KG trade, but I've felt that was for basketball reasons, not strictly finances. Hollinger cites Sacramento and Memphis specifically as teams that look to be shedding salary because they're losing money... not sure that the Wolves are in that category, but they could be.

I've gotten the impression that the Wolves are rebuilding, so the salary is necessarily low. Taylor has been a taxpayer before, and maybe would be again?

[TrentTuckerForever]

I like this one:

Potential deal with Phoenix?

Suns give: Jason Richardson and #14 pick
Wolves give: Mike Miller

...but I wonder if the leverage wouldn't be far enough on MN's side for PHO to do it for Cardinal/Madsen instead of Miller? Or get them to throw in Robin Lopez, I'd like to see him in a Wolves' uni.

[john2jer]

I figured the Phoenix deal would be more realistic due to the pick, the extra year on J-Rich, and Mike Miller's talent.

Mike Miller + either Madsen or Craig Smith works out.

Mike Miller and Craig Smith for Jason Richardson, Robin Lopez, and #14

Saves Phoenix about $8mil next year and $16.2 in 2010.

Then again if we can package the two picks to move up...

C - Thabeet/Lopez
PF - Jefferson/Love
SF - Richardson/Gomes
SG - Foye/Brewer
PG - Holiday/Telfair

I was thinking this earlier, but didn't type it out, Mike James has a player option, and thus the Washington trade would have to be put on hold, and as shrink says, teams fall in love with their picks, so waiting would cause issues.

I like the Phoenix deal due to value for both teams.

[shrink]

MIN will have about $3 mil in space under the salary cap, if they renounce the MLE and LLE. This might be a tough choice, since there will clearly be values in the 2009 free agency market with so few buyers. However, raw cap space has a lot of trade value too.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= ... XQQ&gid=19

MIN's at about $50.9 mil in guaranteed salaries with 11 players in 2009-10.

Currently, their draft picks and cap holds add about $4.3 mil, and look like this:

#6 MIN $2,394,600
#18 MIA $1,160,200
#30 BOS $797,600
UTA pick most likely deferred to 2010

This leaves 14 players at $55.2 mil

The current salary cap is $58.68. It may decrease slightly, but not by much this year. As I understand it, the TV revenues are based on a two-year deal, and much of the corporate investment will already be accounted for, so these won't come off the books until the 2010 salary cap .. which could face a substantial decline.

That's where I get the $3 mil figure.

[casey]

Even if the cap goes down, as expected, the Wolves can still be 09 FA players. They're committed to $50 million right now for next year, and so could make a deal starting around $6-7 million to a veteran, which is more than the midlevel. In what's expected to be a depressed marketplace that might be enough.

2009/2010
Al Jefferson - $12,000,000
Mike Miller - $9,880,957
Brian Cardinal - $6,750,000
Ryan Gomes - $4,017,500
Kevin Love - $3,401,040
Randy Foye - $3,575,761
Corey Brewer - $2,916,120
Mark Madsen - $2,840,000
Craig Smith - $2,300,000
Sebastian Telfair - $2,500,000
Bobby Brown - $736,420
#6 Pick - $2,474,400
#18 Pick - $1,198,900
#27 Pick - $836,300
Total - $55,427,398
Projected Cap - $57,300,000

[younggunsmn]

TTF Your numbers are way off. Here is a thread I started to put out correct info for everyone that got derailed and crapped on.
viewtopic.php?f=22&t=872337&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

add in 736k for bobby brown and revise the cap holds for the draft picks and we are at 55-56 million without williams or carney. If we jump into the top 3 picks add another 1 to 2 million to that. We are looking at probably 2-3 million maximum in cap space.

With the cap coming down the lux will probably creep below 70 million next year and that is going to screw up alot of teams' plans.

One likely scenario you are going to see with miller and cardinal is us using one or both to either buy a pick with a contract swap (like portland did with roy), or move up in the draft.
Miller is perfect for this because he can actually help a contending team and he will be an expiring too. he would fit perfect on the Wizards with arenas healthy next year. They are at 76 million for '09 (which we can't help them with much) and 63 million already for 2010. The teams with the cap room to absorb an '09 contract have the best shot at landing their pick. Detroit, Toronto, Memphis, OKC all have enough room. Sadly the Mayo trade ate about 7 milion of our '09 cap room, otherwise we could conceivably land two top 5 talents this year. The minimum they are probably asking for is for a team to eat etan thomas's 7.3 million '09 expiring for cap space.

I don't think eating a contract for a mid-1st is worth it, but getting 2 top-tier guys is another story if one of them is rubio. There is one dominant top 10 center (thabeet) one lottery level project (mullens), and one mid-late first project (jordan). After rubio the point guards are interchangeable depending on what style of player you are looking for. 3 of the top 7 or 8 guys will be PF's (Griffin, Monroe, HIll) which we already have cornered the market on.

[younggunsmn]

while i was typing you guys beat me to it.

[shrink]

BTW, we need to salary match any trade that would leave us more than $100,000 over the cap. nobody's written one yet, but don't get ideas about making a non-matching salary deal, just because we are under the cap .. he's too big.

However, we could help the Hornets financial situation by doing it this way, with simultaneous trades:

Chandler for Cardinal + Madsen + Bobby Brown
$12,250,000 for (6,750,000 + 2,840,000 + 736,420) = $12,250,000 - $10,326,420 = NOH SAVES $1,923,580

Julian Wright + Devin Brown for Cap Space
2,000,040 + 1,107,572 = NOH SAVES $3,107,542

NOH SAVES $1,923,580 + $3,107,542 = $5,031,122

NOH 76,967,090 - $5,031,122 = $71,935,968 (+ about $1 mil for their pick)

FOR NOH, this deal saves them over $10 mil next season, and puts them within striking distance of getting under the lux.

FOR MIN, this trades expirings and the cap space for Chandler and Wright. We'll know a lot more on the valuation as soon as we get the full story on Chandler's medical issues that caused OKC to cancel the trade. If we needed to add value, the UTA pick makes more sense, because it most likely won't add 2009-10 salary. They might like to trade their pick for the UTA pick regardless just to defer (doubled) salary. If Chandler is 100%, we might have to use Miller.

[shrink]

Since we've already forgone the 09 free agent period (by not unloading Miller and Card), I'd prefer to take all our expirings till the deadline of '10. I get the feeling we might see someone of significance traded to the Wolves if we do that. Their contracts are only going to get more and more valuable.

I agree with your whole post, but we can do both if we trade the $3 mil in cap space for a 2010 expiring plus incentive.

[casey]

Hm, I don't see how that would work shrink. We would have less than $2Mil in cap space. I get the Chandler and Brown part of it, but I don't get the Wright part of it. Unless we threw in Boston's pick to create a little extra cap room. So Wright for the pick and then Chandler and Brown for Cardinal, Madsen, and Brown.

[shrink]

are the Wolves even doing much better financially than New Orleans

Last year, they were both about break-even teams. However MIN shed some costly contracts, while NOH went well over the lux with Chris Paul's deal. Our owner's net worth, at about $2 billion, is about 20 times greater than NOH's George Shinn.

[shrink]

Hm, I don't see how that would work shrink. We would have less than $2Mil in cap space. I get the Chandler and Brown part of it, but I don't get the Wright part of it. Unless we threw in Boston's pick to create a little extra cap room. So Wright for the pick and then Chandler and Brown for Cardinal, Madsen, and Brown.

Our differences between $2 and $3 mil in room under the cap vary based on what the cap holds end up being for the three (or four) picks. We'll know for sure at the end of the season what works. Using the $3 mil figure, I was trying to maximize NOH's cap space, but its all sketchy at this point, and made even sketchier since its almost impossible to put a precise value on Chandler now, when it could vary greatly by summer. I laid this one out more as an exercise of "how to," with a simultaneous deal, and not sloshing the cap space into the bigger deal. However, we'll have to wait until this summer to see how the specific fit.