Iverson

[D21]

IMO, Sund chose Smith as the one to keep, and not knowing what it will cost to keep him, he just use his calculator, and did:

Tax Threshold
- Committed salaries
- Max offer for Smith

and he got an amount to start Childress offer, certainly lower than MLE.
If Smith had been signed in early July for the contract he got later, Childress would instantly have had a better offer than what he got.

This Summer is different, because keeping Bibby and Marvin won't push the team over the tax, they both makes 21M now and it's possible to keep them for this amount, at least it won't have to increase like the amount for both Smith and Childress.

[dpaulh]

I don't see why Marvin has to be the top priority... there are 50 Marvin Williams' in the NBA. I really hope that we don't overpay him

Instead of paying Marvin big, we could probably resign Childress and get Bibby back for just a little more than it would take to keep Marvin

[raleigh]

Instead of paying Marvin big, we could probably resign Childress and get Bibby back for just a little more than it would take to keep Marvin

Not likely. In fact, I think it's more likely that Bibby will cost more than Marvin per season.

[dpaulh]

I have no idea how it will play out, but is it really possible that bibby could get 3/$30? If that is the case or anywhere close to that, then let him walk in my opinion...

I know he means a lot to this team, but there will be other options such as AI, Flip, Heinrich, Felton, even one of Jameer or Rafer (maybe not since Orlando is in our division), who knows...

What are the chances that Speedy retires? and how much more would that free up for us? we will still take a cap hit wont we?

[evildallas]

I think Marvin will be a wait and see because of his restricted status. Unless you are getting the max (or close to it), it pays to see what the market is offering (not necessarily signing an offer sheet). There are only 4 teams (Detroit, OKC, Memphis, Sacramento) with the room to offer a substantially higher contract to Marvin than his QO of 7.35M and there is no guarantee that any will (Tayshaun Prince, Kevin Durant, Rudy Gay, and Andre Nocioni's Contract along with a high draft pick likely at F). His QO is well above the MLE so he has no incentive to negotiate with other clubs unless they can work a sign and trade deal out for him. Atlanta is a reasonably good negotiating position provided they think he's worth a good deal more than the QO (Josh Smith-money). Otherwise, Marvin is a good candidate to take the QO and play out his deal. If he continues to develop then he'd be in prime position to sign in the much talked about summer of 2010 when there should be more shoppers. With so many teams positioning themselves to pay the handful of max players available then I suspect that a few teams will have major cap room to use after the big prizes are gone and start looking at the likes of Joe and Marvin with large checks.

BTW, Portland may have some cap room but it isn't substantially more than the QO, so if they offered as much as they had available I think he'd be at a matchable number.

[D21]

I don't see why Marvin has to be the top priority... there are 50 Marvin Williams' in the NBA. I really hope that we don't overpay him

Instead of paying Marvin big, we could probably resign Childress and get Bibby back for just a little more than it would take to keep Marvin

It doesn't change anything.
Even if you keep Bibby and get Childress back, for a total of 10M$ (assuming it's "big bucks" for Marvin alone), added to the committed salaries, you will under the cap for nearly the same amount than the MLE (the ca will certainly be lower than this season), but with no possibility to use it since we would have to renounce to all the exceptions to sign them and be lower than the cap.

So it means that you will have Bibby and Childress, and minimum contracts, while you can sign Bibby and Marvin, being over the cap, but still able to use the MLE to bring Childress or any other player.

We don't have to care about being at about the cap, we need to not be higher than the tax threshold, and try to keep/get the best players for this money.

Now, I don't see Bibby and Childress signed for only 10M$ (and Childress would have to leave his current Olympiakos deal paying him what would be a 10M$/yr contract in ATL).

Letting Bibby walk would hurt to team, we keep him, or we need to do a sign-&-trade to get something in return, moreover if Marvin is not signed before: he will count for a max contract against the cap until he's signed so unless we renounce the rights to Marvin and let him walk, we won't have any cap space (Childress will also count for almost 11M until he would be signed).

The only solution would be to renounce all exceptions and rights (Marvin, Bibby, Childress...) ad have Speedy retired this summer. It would put the team at 35M, so with 22M in cap space, but I would take that risk because there won't be lots of good F.A. this summer, and we know that ATL is not their first choice...

[Skyhawk1]

I think Marvin will be a wait and see because of his restricted status. Unless you are getting the max (or close to it), it pays to see what the market is offering (not necessarily signing an offer sheet). There are only 4 teams (Detroit, OKC, Memphis, Sacramento) with the room to offer a substantially higher contract to Marvin than his QO of 7.35M and there is no guarantee that any will (Tayshaun Prince, Kevin Durant, Rudy Gay, and Andre Nocioni's Contract along with a high draft pick likely at F). His QO is well above the MLE so he has no incentive to negotiate with other clubs unless they can work a sign and trade deal out for him. Atlanta is a reasonably good negotiating position provided they think he's worth a good deal more than the QO (Josh Smith-money). Otherwise, Marvin is a good candidate to take the QO and play out his deal. If he continues to develop then he'd be in prime position to sign in the much talked about summer of 2010 when there should be more shoppers. With so many teams positioning themselves to pay the handful of max players available then I suspect that a few teams will have major cap room to use after the big prizes are gone and start looking at the likes of Joe and Marvin with large checks.

BTW, Portland may have some cap room but it isn't substantially more than the QO, so if they offered as much as they had available I think he'd be at a matchable number.

Dallas, I think you know about cap situation around the league much better than I do. Aren't the T-Wolves in a position to offer Marvin big bucks ? I've noticed on their board they love him and he had a great game up there against them, as if he were on a mission... He makes a lot of sense for them imo.

[killbuckner]

d21- The reason that the hawks were able to get Bibby for expiring contracts is that the was vastly overpaid and the Kings just wanted to be rid of him. I know many people here don't like Hollinger but he has something called the "fluke rule" talking about players who have a late career resurgence. Basically it just says that when a player over the age of 28 has a +3 increase in PER from one season to the next they are HIGHLY likely to regress the following season. Bibby had declined for 3 seasons in a row coming into this one and no question he has had a dramatic turnaround. But if you sign him to a 3 year 30 million dollar contract and he regresses at all then you are stuck with a BAD contract you can't get rid of. Thats the mistake teams make in FA- they sign guys where only if it works out perfectly is the contract justified. If Bibby is getting THAT much money I easily let him walk. I just think one of the biggest mistakes you can make in FA is to overpay someone who underperforms right up until their contract year.

[ACE_reppin_ATL]

Of course I've been posting ideas of getting Iverson here, but it's obvious to me that a huge number of y'all haven't seen DET games since Iverson's been there....I also know quite a few people in DET and they are FAR MORE pissed with Rasheed Wallace and his inconsistency inside than they are with Iverson. Sheed still plays DEF but the addition of A.I. was to make them more powerful offensively to go in a new direction....

A lot of them regret the Billups deal (not necessarily because of A.I) but it seems like half the town wants Sheed out in the worse way. In fact in the last 3 years, Sheed @ PF/C has avg. under 13ppg, under 8 rebs, and has shot a p!ss poor 43 FG% 36 3PT% or less...They're getting this production from a former All Star! Iverson, on the other hand, came into a system built for a traditional PG to run with no training camp and no time to gel.

Bottom line A.I. would be a great fit here to put this team over the top by adding heart and desire, speeding up the tempo a little more, and filling up the seats @ Phillips....My issue is he's 33 but is still very explosive and quick and he gives you everything....Is that better than Bibby, who's 31, but seems to be in the area of decline and is not as explosive as A.I.? With Joe's tendency to lay back at times and mellow out of the picture, would A.I. be the perfect backcourt mate to draw just as much DEF attention and free Joe up for tons of opportunities? Would we have move Marvin + filler for a solid big and bring back Chillz?

[raleigh]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... i?id=fxiCc

^^^Compare the per36 of Flip to AI. I was surprised at what a small difference there was between the two.

[killbuckner]

Its pretty striking to see Flip with a better TS%

[raleigh]

Is it fair to say that Iverson basically IS Flip Murray at this stage in his career? I mean, AI is going to be 34 this summer. I've been impressed that he hasn't declined sooner.

[killbuckner]

I didn't realize how far Iverson has just fallen off of a cliff this season.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... i?id=BGKTJ

I'd be inclined to say that Iverson's disastrous season is just due to Detroit being a terrible situation. I mean I do think that BIbby's skill set should age more gracefully than Iverson's but this season is absolutely ridiculous.

[evildallas]

Dallas, I think you know about cap situation around the league much better than I do. Aren't the T-Wolves in a position to offer Marvin big bucks ? I've noticed on their board they love him and he had a great game up there against them, as if he were on a mission... He makes a lot of sense for them imo.

Sorry, I've been away from this thread or I would have answered earlier. Minnesota is not a threat this summer. While they have several deals coming off the books like Jason Collins, Shelden Williams, Rodney Carney, and Kevin Ollie (as well as the ghosts of Troy Hudson and Juwan Howard), they have draft pick cap holds that reduce their flexibility. You figure they should wind up with 3 picks and their own is almost assuredly going to be top 7, the one from Miami should be around 18th, and the one from Boston would be 28-30th. Going with the most conservative estimates means that they should be at 54-55M (involves renouncing all free agents to get base down to 50M with 4M in cap holds and that could be higher). 54M doesn't leave enough cap room to exceed Marvin's qualifying offer of 7.35M. They could sell a pick or make a draft day trade to free up a little more space, but it isn't likely they get low enough to make an offer not worth matching.

[Lue_4_MVP]

Is it fair to say that Iverson basically IS Flip Murray at this stage in his career? I mean, AI is going to be 34 this summer. I've been impressed that he hasn't declined sooner.

Eh, Iverson is still doing better than Flip did in Detroit. This team is basically perfect for Flip whereas the contrary is true for Iverson.

Put Iverson in Mike Woodson's isolation-based, one-on-one ball-chucking system and you'll probably see his production go back up to his Philly days.

[parson]

Agreed. I think he'd still be great on a lineup with 4 defensive players. Give him all the shots (especially the important ones) and let the other 4 get out on fast breaks and set picks. If they defended well enough, that team could win, 'cuz AI is still unstoppable in the 4th.

[Rod700]

I like Hinrich as well, and the declining structure of his contract makes it acceptable. For me, signing AND TRADING Marv is a priority though. He is just a well rounded roll player.

EDIT: A well rounded roll player, not worth the qualifying offer.

[mattlanta]

I personally don't believe Flip Murray would be an improvement over Bibby at all. He's having a great year and he was a good signing no doubt... but that's what he is - a bench player. Murray can not set his players up the same way Bibby or many of the other available PGs this summer would be able to. He's a score-first player. If some of you are talking about Horford and Smith and Marvin losing shots with AI, I don't think there would be much change with Flip.

[evildallas]

Wasn't advocating Flip as an improvement to Bibby, just as an inexpensive plan B that could very well happen if Bibby desires to leave or gets a decent offer.

I'm surprised that no one has brought up that AI is out for Detroit and they win 2 on the road over Orlando and Boston (admittedly no KG) after losing the previous 8 in a row. It's probably unfair to lay it all on AI, but it just goes to show you that if he doesn't fit the players around him or the system that AI can result in negative outcomes. I strongly feel that we don't have the personnel to make it work with him.