Could it really happen?

[cdash]

Trust me, I hate this post as much as anyone, but I am becoming worried. Could we lose the Pacers? Is it possible that they could move away from Indianapolis?

The economy is bad...and getting worse. The Pacers are hemmoraging money. The fairweather Indianapolis fans aren't supporting its oldest professional team (Sorry, but you are fairweather fans. No one gave a **** about the Colts before they were good, and now they are the toast of the town and everyone dropped the Pacers.) Not only that, but we also have the WNBA's Fever losing the Simons' money. I know we wouldn't be the first team to leave their city (Looking at you New Orleans, Sacramento, and New Jersey), but I dont think it is outside the realm of possibility. Especially if the Simons sell the Pacers, then all bets are off.

For those of you wondering, yes, Simmons' article did prompt me to write this, but its been something that has been brought up on the board a few times and quickly brushed aside. I would be beyond devastated if the Pacers left. I'm sure this statement speaks volumes about how pathetic my life is, but besides an immediate relatives' death, I can't think of anything that would upset me more than the Pacers leaving Indy. Let's hope to everything sacred and holy in life that this economic crises ends quickly, and that the NBA isn't completely hammered by it.

[chatard5]

It is hiiiigggghly highly doubtful. First off, the Simons aren't moving the Pacers, so they would have to sell the team, which I don't see happening. We have to continue to suck for the next 6 or so years (it would take a while for all of this to happen. The overnight moves don't happen anymore). Our attendance will go up as we get better. If we are the around the 4 seed for a couple years that will get more season ticket holders.

Really, we are the heart of basketball. Right now our team sucks, and we don't have many fans going to our games. Other teams are decent/good and they don't get teams going to their games. Conseco is awesome. Plus I just see very few cities that would get a lot more attendance at this point. Maybe Vegas, but they can't have a team with all the gambling. I could see St. Louis rooting for a basketball team, but they would still be the 3rd or 4th team in the city behind the Cardinals, Blues, and possibly Rams.

It's not going to happen, but lets assume it did. The next expansion team would come here (that could be a while, but it'd also take a while to get a new owner and find a new city to go to). Assuming we got new owners and there was talk of them moving the team unless more tickets were sold, a lot more tickets would be sold.

I give the Pacers moving cities in the next 10 years a 1 in 10,000 chance, about the same chance that the shamwow guy has any friends.

[TJFordisGod]

Well heres a bright spot in accordance to the money issues via wiretap:

The Pacers claim that they aren't one of 12 teams interested in borrowing money from the NBA.

The NBA has set up $200 million to distribute to interested teams, meaning that between $13 million and $20 million will be available to each of the dozen teams involved.

"We are not involved in it at all," Pacers co-owner Herb Simon said. "It has nothing to do with us."

Forbes magazine reported the Pacers lost $6 million last year, though Simon has said it was much more.

[basketballwacko2]

Yeah where would they go that would be a better place from a money perspective? Indy is no worse off than another city and better off than some. What we need to do is win. We need to get rid of JT, when the season is over let's find a new home for him, Houston or Dallas would be a good place, Atlanta if they don't bring back Bibby. Then we need to get a good player in the draft and think outside the box as far as trades are concerned. What's Dallas gonna do with that team they sure as hell aren't making the finals without divine intervention. I don't think we're that bad off really but we aren't winning a title anytime soon as long as the team gets better the fans will support them.

[Miller4ever]

The weirdest move and name-keep has got to be the Utah Jazz. Freakin' oxymoron.

The Pacers are staying put. We don't have jerks as bosses like the Supersonics did. And if Okie and Memphis got teams moving TO them, then I don't think that Indiana is the worst market. Conseco is too nice, and a huge investment right there. Honestly, getting a playoff series would help a lot, because making the playoffs generates a lot of extra revenue.

[count55]

Yes, it could happen. The issue is that the Simons are aging, and their children, specifically David, are not particularly interested in taking over the ownership. With Mel sick, and Herb 74 (I believe), they will need to find new local ownership. The problem is that the estimated values of the NBA teams, particularly the Pacers are so inflated now as to discourage casual ownership. The Simons benefited from a level of appreciation in the value that the next owner cannot realistically expect.

I do not consider the Pacers moving (or folding) a likelihood, but it is a real possibility. I would say it's closer to 1 in 4 than 1 in 10,000.

Also, I would say that there is very little chance of NBA expansion in the next decade, and, if the Pacers left Indianapolis, that would almost certainly be the end of the NBA in Indiana forever. The city will not be a candidate for an expansion franchise.

As to not taking the loan, that should not be viewed as either a positive or a negative. It is more likely that they passed on the loan for reasons that have nothing to do with financial health of the franchise. It is possible, as they claim, that they are capable of getting better financing through the SPG auspices, but it's also just as likely that the Pacers do not wish to meet one of the requirements of the loan: opening their books. They are in negotiations with the city, and they probably wish to keep that type of information close to their vests.

[count55]

The weirdest move and name-keep has got to be the Utah Jazz. Freakin' oxymoron.

The Pacers are staying put. We don't have jerks as bosses like the Supersonics did. And if Okie and Memphis got teams moving TO them, then I don't think that Indiana is the worst market. Conseco is too nice, and a huge investment right there. Honestly, getting a playoff series would help a lot, because making the playoffs generates a lot of extra revenue.

Not so much. In the playoffs, 40% of the gate goes to the league, as opposed to 10% during the regular season. A deep run could have long lasting effects, but a one-and-done series, where you maybe have two games would only bring about $1.5 - 2.0mm extra revenue if it sold out.

The most likely scenario of 12-14k tickets probably brings the Pacers less than $1mm in revenue, and even less than that in terms of actual profits/cash.

[cjacobs2007]

If the Pacers left Indy I don't know what I'd do, probably cry myself to sleep. I honestly don't think the Pacers will leave Indy, and it is hard to imagine the state of Indiana without a professional basketball team. Yes, the fans are fair-weathered by I believe if this became serious fans would support the team more so they wouldn't leave.

[Miller4ever]

Not so much. In the playoffs, 40% of the gate goes to the league, as opposed to 10% during the regular season. A deep run could have long lasting effects, but a one-and-done series, where you maybe have two games would only bring about $1.5 - 2.0mm extra revenue if it sold out.

The most likely scenario of 12-14k tickets probably brings the Pacers less than $1mm in revenue, and even less than that in terms of actual profits/cash.

Is there somewhere we can go to check this? I was thinking that it wasn't just the extra attendance, but also the merchandising. Do the teams get anything for the television broadcasts of the games?

[cdash]

Yes, it could happen. The issue is that the Simons are aging, and their children, specifically David, are not particularly interested in taking over the ownership. With Mel sick, and Herb 74 (I believe), they will need to find new local ownership. The problem is that the estimated values of the NBA teams, particularly the Pacers are so inflated now as to discourage casual ownership. The Simons benefited from a level of appreciation in the value that the next owner cannot realistically expect.

I do not consider the Pacers moving (or folding) a likelihood, but it is a real possibility. I would say it's closer to 1 in 4 than 1 in 10,000.

Also, I would say that there is very little chance of NBA expansion in the next decade, and, if the Pacers left Indianapolis, that would almost certainly be the end of the NBA in Indiana forever. The city will not be a candidate for an expansion franchise.

As to not taking the loan, that should not be viewed as either a positive or a negative. It is more likely that they passed on the loan for reasons that have nothing to do with financial health of the franchise. It is possible, as they claim, that they are capable of getting better financing through the SPG auspices, but it's also just as likely that the Pacers do not wish to meet one of the requirements of the loan: opening their books. They are in negotiations with the city, and they probably wish to keep that type of information close to their vests.

I agree with this 100%. I don't think it will happen, but it is a real possibility. Like I said in the first post, I think there are a few other teams in line to move before we do, and the one thing that we don't know is: How many of these cities are going to want to finance an NBA team? Vegas is taking an absolute beating with the economy, and they would need a new arena. Kansas City has an NBA ready arena. Anaheim does too. I'm not sure Pittsburgh would be a great NBA city. I think we are okay, but I am not going to say that it can't happen. Especially with our attendance being among the very worst in the NBA.

[Charcoal Filtered]

Making the playoffs also brings in revenue as they tie playoff tickets into season ticket packages, concessions, and merchandising. It would probably not mean much this year if we grabbed an 8 seed though as just about everyone that wants playoff tickets should be able to buy them.

[cdash]

count, just out of curiosity, how do you know so much about the CBA and all the hairy rules of the NBA?

[Miller4ever]

count55 is David Stern who joined after feeling bad about screwing us after the brawl.

[chatard5]

My 1:10,000 was high, but really I think it is .2%, so I really do think it's about 1 in 500. I just don't see any other cities that could get a lot of fans. Right when Charlotte moved, they got an expansion team soon after. I don't see an expansion anytime soon, but where will these teams go? Really, I can only think of St. Louis, Vegas (not happening), maybe another NYC team, but the Nets will be there. Unless they try to go to Canada again, but I don't know which city would really care too much.

[cdash]

My 1:10,000 was high, but really I think it is .2%, so I really do think it's about 1 in 500. I just don't see any other cities that could get a lot of fans. Right when Charlotte moved, they got an expansion team soon after. I don't see an expansion anytime soon, but where will these teams go? Really, I can only think of St. Louis, Vegas (not happening), maybe another NYC team, but the Nets will be there. Unless they try to go to Canada again, but I don't know which city would really care too much.

Well, you really have to look at cities that already have an NBA-ready arena in place. So basically NHL cities without NBA teams. Anaheim, San Jose, Kansas City (they built an arena anticipating an NHL team to come that never did), Pittsburgh, Columbus, Tampa, etc. Cities that make some sense like St. Louis, Cincinnati, Vegas, Louisville, Seattle, Baltimore, and others don't have the NBA quality arena, and likely won't want to fund one, with Seattle being the exception there.

[chatard5]

There are too many California teams, I don't see them getting a team. I guess KC is possible, but I don't see them getting more fans than us. Pitt loves their football and hockey (maybe baseball if they were ever good?) but I don't see them embracing a basketball team, not that kind of town. Really I just don't see these cities getting more fans. From what I've heard, STL would fund an arena. I don't think we have much to worry about.

[Boneman2]

^^^agreed

[PR07]

Possible? Yes. Likely? No.