Don't offer Marvin the QO?

[killbuckner]

Just thinking out loud here- but I think that by not offering Marvin the QO then they probably would increase their chances of signing him long term. Marvin's QO is 7.3 million dollars which is signifcantly higher than the MLE. By withdrawing the QO Marvin would be an unrestricted free agent. But the number of teams with caproom and the ability to exceed the MLE is very small. Likely Memphis, Detroit, and OKC are the teams who will be serious players in FA this offseason. But all of those teams are set at SF, I can't see any of them making a big run at marvin. If the Hawks offered Marvin a contract slightly more than the MLE then I don't think that Marvin would take it, he would actually be costing himself money next season and would be passing up his chance to hit UFA in the summer of 2010 when all sorts of teams are trying to get caproom.

Personally I think that because so few teams will have caproom this offseason combined with his large QO, its highly likely that Marvin just takes the QO and hits UFA in 2010. That is just a prime contract for someone to be able to take in an offseason where FA's are unlikely to get much interest at all, considering next offseason so many teams have caproom for players unlikely to sign with them. This is not a no-downside move. If Marvin were willing to take the MLE to go to a team like the Spurs then it would backfire. If a team like the Kings decided that they were williing to take the steps to clear additional space it could hurt. But the Hawks would still have Marvin's birdrights to pay him whatever they wanted- it would basically be saying that the threat of him accepting the QO is more of a threat than him finding another desirable FA destination this offseason.

I haven't looked closely enough at the cap situations of other teams that might make a run at marvin so I am not saying I would do this. But I'd sure be happier dealing with Marvin as an UFA this offseason rather than next offseason.

[D21]

Interesting point. It will need to wait for end of June, and see what kind of trades other will make, to be sure that no other team would be interested be signing Marvin for lots of money, but since you have until June 30th to offer the Q.O., there is no problem.

But as you said, you need to look closely at the numbers.

[killbuckner]

I should have said- the Hawks actually do have the ability to withdraw the QO up until July 23rd. So they could have the QO in place while teams spend all their time using up whatever caproom they have and THEN pull it. Because accepting the QO is generally done LATE in fa after all negotiations have broken down. Its rare to have a QO pulled like that and it would be a BOLD move. But by that point in FA the Hawks really would probably be bidding against themselves in FA and Marvin just deciding whether he liked that offer or would prefer 7.3 million and then hitting UFA in 2010.

Put it this way- Marvin wouldn't want to see that QO get pulled. From a straight leverage standpoint it makes sense. but obviously there are bigger issues at play.

[evildallas]

That's thinking outside the box. Intriguing, but not really necessary at the start of the process unless you expect him to jump at the QO or you expect one of the teams with cap space to play chicken with a sizable offer sheet. The QO is safety net if the negotiations on a bigger deal don't work out. The only reason he would jump at it would be if he desires to be a 2010 UFA and leave Atlanta so much that its worth risking injury on a 1 year deal. That's unlikely because his agent can try to negotiate out what he wants while being an RFA and use the QO as a fallback. The other case would require him to sign an offer sheet with one of the teams with space. But if you are worried about that, then making him an unrestricted free agent actually makes it more likely to happen. Once teams make some moves, you might consider pulling the QO, but doing that risks turning the negotiations hostile.

To suggest this you must have a contract dollar figure with respect to resigning Marvin. What might that be?

[evildallas]

I should have said- the Hawks actually do have the ability to withdraw the QO up until July 23rd. So they could have the QO in place while teams spend all their time using up whatever caproom they have and THEN pull it. Because accepting the QO is generally done LATE in fa after all negotiations have broken down. Its rare to have a QO pulled like that and it would be a BOLD move. But by that point in FA the Hawks really would probably be bidding against themselves in FA and Marvin just deciding whether he liked that offer or would prefer 7.3 million and then hitting UFA in 2010.

Put it this way- Marvin wouldn't want to see that QO get pulled. From a straight leverage standpoint it makes sense. but obviously there are bigger issues at play.

You added this as I typed my response. I came to the same conclusion of offer then rescind, but as I said could make it hostile, but by that point in time he may not have many options to get paid.

[D21]

^ Right, this second view is more of playing with Marvin's nerves, but more logical from a financial point of view

[killbuckner]

I'd say that with that 7.3 million dollar QO Marvin has absolutely no reason to accept a first year starting less than that. That would be a 5 year 44 million dollar contract. I don't know that this number would get it done- I just think this is the number where negotiations would start on Marvin's side. But I think its likely that other than the Hawks he wouldn't get any offers for more than the MLE this offseason. I can't speculate on what he would be able to get next offseason though I'd think he would be at the top of the list for a team like the Wolves or maybe Kings. There are a lot of teams that are tryign to get caproom for guys that aren't realistic options. Fans are expecting them to do SOMETHING. Overpaying a young player with potential like Marvin is a direction I see someone going in.

All I know is that if I were Marvin's agent I would be looking to hit UFA in 2010 unless the Hawks were willing to overpay Marvin now. I think the Hawks are highly unlikely to overpay marvin when the next highest offer is the MLE. If he accepted the QO then he would have a no trade clause and would be in prime position for FA. That QO just gives Marvin so much leverage in this situation that he wouldn't have otherwise.

[D21]

If he's OK with a 45M/5yrs contract, he can also ask for a flat contract, with 9M each season.
This way, he gets more now, and it can be a good thing to have a contract that increase in the next years, since Smith is already in this case, and we don't know what Joe will ask.

[tontoz]

Is it possible to offer the QO but then withrawn the offer later? Marvin is unlikely to jump on the QO. It might be better to offer it and then withdraw it later once it becomes clear nobody will make an offer.

That might be considered dirty pool though.

[killbuckner]

You can withdraw it up to July 23rd without the players consent. if you are doing this from a PR standpoint you would basically just come out and say "Look- our numbers are FAR apart. Marvin has simply overestimated his value in this market and we want him to be able to see that. We still have his bird rights and intend to match or exceed any offer he gets, we simply want him to know that we aren't lowballing him." Marvin might be shocked by the move but if the Hawks are the only team that can exceed the MLE to sign him then how long can he afford to be upset? At that point the only real worry woudl be that he takes the MLE to go to a team like the Spurs, but thats not generally a move that young players make. IF the Hawks wanted to do a S&T with him they still would have his bird rights to facilitate that.

[td00]

Like last season, I don't see this playing out very quickly, keeping the options this team has to be few.
Personally, I don't see MW taking less than 10M/year for 5 years. He has seen what we have committed to Smoove, what others at his position are making,
Not that it will have any relevance, but looking at Bogut's numbers might be a good barometer to what we can expect MW to be comparing to. A few names come to mind:

Tayshaun / Gerald Wallace/ Luol Deng / Josh Howard

MW being picked that high sure does complicate this negotiation going forward.
I see him looking to be in the Top 3 paid on this team if we want to retain him for the long haul.
That puts him around Smooves' numbers and probably a bit higher than what we offer Bibby.
We are in a dangerous time here to see who will be with us the next 3-5 years and who we will build around. I am not convinced we can keep everyone.

[tontoz]

You can withdraw it up to July 23rd without the players consent. if you are doing this from a PR standpoint you would basically just come out and say "Look- our numbers are FAR apart. Marvin has simply overestimated his value in this market and we want him to be able to see that. We still have his bird rights and intend to match or exceed any offer he gets, we simply want him to know that we aren't lowballing him." Marvin might be shocked by the move but if the Hawks are the only team that can exceed the MLE to sign him then how long can he afford to be upset? At that point the only real worry woudl be that he takes the MLE to go to a team like the Spurs, but thats not generally a move that young players make. IF the Hawks wanted to do a S&T with him they still would have his bird rights to facilitate that.

That is a pretty short time frame which makes my idea a little pointless. I was thinking more in terms of offering it until other teams used up their cap space. That is probably why they have such a short time on withdrawing the offer, to prevent teams from doing just that.

I would be surprised if they don't extend the QO but i can certainly see the logic.

Personally, I don't see MW taking less than 10M/year for 5 years. He has seen what we have committed to Smoove, what others at his position are making,

tdoo remember that Smith signed his contract before the economy tanked. The cap next year will be much smaller plus the CBA will have to be renegotiated soon. Both things hurt Marvins negotiating position.

[Rod700]

I had said earlier that Marv is not worth the QO. Just wanted to say you did a great job thinking the whole process out though. Kudos.