Dat2U wrote:Ernie always, always goes for the guy with the highest upside. McGee, Young, Blatche, McGuire even Pech. Who some scouting reports had pegged as one with Van Horn-like potential even though he had struggled mightly in the Ukrainian League.
Disagree, but only a little. Ernie has a draft board same as everyone else and cross-ranks players by talent and need. You don't pass on an upside guy from a higher talent tier, but with guys of equivalent talent you take the guy that fits your team's needs and current coach's system.
You can tell by the guys he brings in for the draft. Pecherov was a 'system' pick. We needed a big rebounding player who could sub for Jamison and upgrade the size of our defense. Here was a true 7 footer who destroyed the guys he played against in our one workout with him (HIlton Armstrong et al). But we were working out other similar players all that draft cycle. Rolled the dice on the best of who was left of the Bigs.
Blatche and McGuire being second rounders fit perfectly into the GMEG method. At that point the chaff is cleared away and you're looking at a choice between NBAer or not. Less questions. You take the best available body regardless of position.
But Nick Young was the most talented 2-guard in a year where we worked out a ton of 2-guards. I think we tried to trade up to take Spencer Hawes or somebody, a big I think (this was per Dave Johnson, wiz radio guy who was blogging from their draft room) but they were ecstatic when Nick was still left at 15 or whatever. Notice we picked up another of the combo/2-guards we tested in that draft.
I'd bet that some small part of GMEG's assessment is colored by other team's opinions of a guy. Because talent is just a tradeable commodity. If other teams think he has value, you can get what you need from them. Dunno.
Seems to me from interviews Ernie doesn't really trust draft picks as players, he'd rather get an instantly productive player and gamble his picks on a cheaper 2nd round guy. (He loves his round 2 bargains). I suspect he goes into every draft looking to deal. Sometimes you can, sometimes you cain't.
Way I see it, if Ricky comes out, this is a 3 player draft. Griff no question, then Ricky, Thabeet for various teams, various reasons. Those are the players that a handful of teams will try to make a play for, give up something of relative value. Ricky sells tickets, and gives nostalgic GMs Maravich flashbacks; Thabeet is a legit defensive center on the team with the #2 defense in the NCAAs. Griff is franchise TE/frunnngback good for dozens of touchdowns either running or passing. Or something.
Other than that, teams will be willing to sit and see what falls to them, barring something interesting in Tourney play. No doubt Jennings has talent, I just don't see teams desperate to trade up to 4/5 to get him. No marquee offers. No significant bargains and steals. So, if picking at 5 with nobody blowing up your phone, GMEG will take best equivalent talent at a need position. Backcourt back-up looks to be the deepest hole right now. And I don't see any absolute steals or undervalued players likely to be on the board. Jennings included. Nice talent, but he's taken a hit playing in Europe.
Okay, one. I expect at 5 with no better trade, GMEG would take Greg Monroe if he stayed in the draft. (Then deal Dray.) I just don't think he'll come out this year.
My best guess.
I wonder why his minutes went up and his fouls went up but his blocks were down (until that last game!) this season? 
I see your point about supply and demand, but when you're making a decision with a high pick, you just can't worry about that. If you settle for less than the BPA, you're almost always going to regret it. With 30 or so teams out there to deal with, if you're a competent GM, you'll find a way to deal with the roster balancing. Now, if you trade down, that's a viable alternative - if... you get value - and usually trading a high pick you can get value.